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.threadguy thinks easier access to the world's biggest financial games permanently changed how young people take risk. Haseeb: "Do you think this is a pendulum?" threadguy: "I think it's a permanent change." "When I was 16, you couldn't really get online and start trading. You would flip sneakers." "The... show more

The Chopping Block

7,989 subscribers

10,378 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 2

Фото профиля 4REIGN

4REIGN1 месяц назад

@notthreadguy it's a leverage game now and it has gotten much accessible everyone wants to flip

Фото профиля Blake.ETH

Blake.ETH1 месяц назад

@notthreadguy sneaker culture is just the training wheels for this

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“It’s ok if you’re just average right now. I just want to know whether you want to become great. Because there are a lot of people who are ok accepting average. They think it’s safer and more comfortable. They think trying to be great comes with a lot of risk. They think it’s too hard and they might get exposed. People think it’s easier to be average than to go try to be great. There’s more friends, more acceptance, more comfort among the average. But I’ll tell you the real truth: Being average is only safe and comfortable for a small window of time. Because at the end of the regular season, when that final whistle blows, and you’re not playing for a championship? How comfortable is that?”

“It’s ok if you’re just average right now. I just want to know whether you want to become great. Because there are a lot of people who are ok accepting average. They think it’s safer and more comfortable. They think trying to be great comes with a lot of risk. They think it’s too hard and they might get exposed. People think it’s easier to be average than to go try to be great. There’s more friends, more acceptance, more comfort among the average. But I’ll tell you the real truth: Being average is only safe and comfortable for a small window of time. Because at the end of the regular season, when that final whistle blows, and you’re not playing for a championship? How comfortable is that?”

Brian Kight

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Threadguy reveals the real reason Waymo is going to take over the world "The real value of Waymo is not that it's cheaper. It's that you get in a Waymo and you don't have to talk to anybody. That is why Waymo is gonna take over the world and flip Uber. Nobody actually cares about the 10% discount or saving a little bit of money on gas." "They just don't want to talk to the guy who drives the Uber. And requesting a silent Uber is just a weird thing to do, you're like an asshole if you do that. I would rather walk than request a silent Uber honestly."

Threadguy reveals the real reason Waymo is going to take over the world "The real value of Waymo is not that it's cheaper. It's that you get in a Waymo and you don't have to talk to anybody. That is why Waymo is gonna take over the world and flip Uber. Nobody actually cares about the 10% discount or saving a little bit of money on gas." "They just don't want to talk to the guy who drives the Uber. And requesting a silent Uber is just a weird thing to do, you're like an asshole if you do that. I would rather walk than request a silent Uber honestly."

Kai

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"There's this feeling that Leopold was the one with the *courage* to take all this risk, or something." "But even that falls flat on a hedge fund manager, I'm afraid." Numerai founder Richard Craib: "Because it's like, someone goes all-in with pocket sevens. And he doubles his money." "Have you learned anything about his courage, or his skill, really? It's a bit foolish." "I also used to think this. I was a young hedge fund manager. I was a 28-year-old hedge fund manager. And I did also have this perception that, surely these big hedge funds are just so risk averse that, for psychological reasons, they refuse to take enough risk." "And I've come to learn that they're taking nearly the exact amount of risk that you should take." "Because these things are mathematical. There's a right amount of risk to take if you have a certain Sharpe ratio. And those numbers are smaller than you think if you want to run money for a very long time." "Leopold was up 400% in H1 of 2026. Well, Warren Buffett was up 5 million percent by basically being sensible for a very long time." "Do you want to do 400%, then lose everything? Or do you want to do the 5 million percent that takes 30 years?" "It's not that some people are unwilling to take risk. It's that they are already taking risk. It's just a small part of their portfolio."

"There's this feeling that Leopold was the one with the courage to take all this risk, or something." "But even that falls flat on a hedge fund manager, I'm afraid." Numerai founder Richard Craib: "Because it's like, someone goes all-in with pocket sevens. And he doubles his money." "Have you learned anything about his courage, or his skill, really? It's a bit foolish." "I also used to think this. I was a young hedge fund manager. I was a 28-year-old hedge fund manager. And I did also have this perception that, surely these big hedge funds are just so risk averse that, for psychological reasons, they refuse to take enough risk." "And I've come to learn that they're taking nearly the exact amount of risk that you should take." "Because these things are mathematical. There's a right amount of risk to take if you have a certain Sharpe ratio. And those numbers are smaller than you think if you want to run money for a very long time." "Leopold was up 400% in H1 of 2026. Well, Warren Buffett was up 5 million percent by basically being sensible for a very long time." "Do you want to do 400%, then lose everything? Or do you want to do the 5 million percent that takes 30 years?" "It's not that some people are unwilling to take risk. It's that they are already taking risk. It's just a small part of their portfolio."

TBPN

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Threadguy reveals he's up 200% on his ZCash trade with 4x leverage and hasn't sold a single dollar "It's by far my biggest trade of the year unrealized P&L. Probably my biggest trade since Trump. And I've sold zero dollars so far. I haven't sold a penny of it." "The easy part of the trade is done. This is now the hard part. But I just think if crypto is really back and we're really going to get the reflexive move, this thing is going to go parabolic." "I'm down to roundtrip many 6 figures on this trade. You just don't get that many good setups. Sometimes you just gotta put that fucker into fifth gear."

Threadguy reveals he's up 200% on his ZCash trade with 4x leverage and hasn't sold a single dollar "It's by far my biggest trade of the year unrealized P&L. Probably my biggest trade since Trump. And I've sold zero dollars so far. I haven't sold a penny of it." "The easy part of the trade is done. This is now the hard part. But I just think if crypto is really back and we're really going to get the reflexive move, this thing is going to go parabolic." "I'm down to roundtrip many 6 figures on this trade. You just don't get that many good setups. Sometimes you just gotta put that fucker into fifth gear."

Kai

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Since Covid, golf has become increasingly more mainstream. Scottie Scheffler was asked ahead of the Travelers Championship how he feels about the impact it’s had on the game: “Yeah, I think it's great for golf to become more mainstream. I think you see, especially since COVID, there's been a tremendous growth in the amount of people that are playing golf. “I think it's the greatest game in the world. You learn a lot about life. I met some of my best friends in the whole world playing golf. So for people getting involved in the sport I think is tremendous. “Like I said, getting to spend four hours with somebody outside hanging out playing a game is something that's pretty rare in the busyness I think that we live in today. So getting out taking some time with your buddies and going to play golf is one of the most fun things you can do. Especially when you start playing, you learn a lot about life and how to handle things and it's a challenging game as well, so overall I think it's just a great sport for anybody to get involved in.” PGA TOUR TravelersChamp

Since Covid, golf has become increasingly more mainstream. Scottie Scheffler was asked ahead of the Travelers Championship how he feels about the impact it’s had on the game: “Yeah, I think it's great for golf to become more mainstream. I think you see, especially since COVID, there's been a tremendous growth in the amount of people that are playing golf. “I think it's the greatest game in the world. You learn a lot about life. I met some of my best friends in the whole world playing golf. So for people getting involved in the sport I think is tremendous. “Like I said, getting to spend four hours with somebody outside hanging out playing a game is something that's pretty rare in the busyness I think that we live in today. So getting out taking some time with your buddies and going to play golf is one of the most fun things you can do. Especially when you start playing, you learn a lot about life and how to handle things and it's a challenging game as well, so overall I think it's just a great sport for anybody to get involved in.” PGA TOUR TravelersChamp

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"In a world that's changing so quickly, the biggest risk you can take is not taking any risk." we're hiring the world's best AI researchers to build AI visual memories it's time to take the risk, and we'll pay $2M+

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🚨Governor DeSantis BLASTS corrupt Congressman Byron Donalds for insider trading! Says the Founding Fathers would be shaking their heads! We've worked with different people in Congress to try to get a ban on this insider trading in Congress. I think the Founding Fathers would look at some of that and I think they'd just be shaking their heads if they saw what was going on. You're in the greatest nation in the history of the world. You are in a nation, I believe, that was blessed by God to serve this purpose in the world as the last best hope on earth. And you are in a position in the United States Congress, which look, it's not always performs up to a great level, but it's still an august institution in our government and you decide to do that. You know, that is not right! That's NOT what you should be doing. So that's one of the reasons why I think you need TERM LIMITS for members of Congress. I think that would be very helpful.”

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Chris Nelson 🏝️🇺🇸

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Instinct CEO Noah Shinn says an agent could check every restaurant in the world for a table every five seconds and predicts the internet will be rewritten in the coming years "Although I'll be clear, I do think that in the coming years, I think the internet's going to be rewritten. I think that the way that most people on the planet interact with software is going to be very, very different." "To break it down, though, I think in the short and medium term, famously, maybe reservations is one where, like booking a reservation." "So historically, how is that done? Well, the human has to go on to the site and to go to whatever restaurant that they care about and then click through the site and then put their two people, this time, and try to get it right and then if they don't get it they're just too late and it's first come first serve." "But then now when you have an agent you can theoretically just have the agent check every five seconds not just across that one restaurant that you really care about that's your favorite restaurant you can't get in." "Sure that's one case right but what if it's doing that across every site in the world for every restaurant in the world in every major city. Right. And now you can see how the agent is able to exploit just something simple, like restaurant reservations."

Instinct CEO Noah Shinn says an agent could check every restaurant in the world for a table every five seconds and predicts the internet will be rewritten in the coming years "Although I'll be clear, I do think that in the coming years, I think the internet's going to be rewritten. I think that the way that most people on the planet interact with software is going to be very, very different." "To break it down, though, I think in the short and medium term, famously, maybe reservations is one where, like booking a reservation." "So historically, how is that done? Well, the human has to go on to the site and to go to whatever restaurant that they care about and then click through the site and then put their two people, this time, and try to get it right and then if they don't get it they're just too late and it's first come first serve." "But then now when you have an agent you can theoretically just have the agent check every five seconds not just across that one restaurant that you really care about that's your favorite restaurant you can't get in." "Sure that's one case right but what if it's doing that across every site in the world for every restaurant in the world in every major city. Right. And now you can see how the agent is able to exploit just something simple, like restaurant reservations."

Fireside Alpha

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Carlos just asking fans to be a little bit kinder and respectful towards driver’s personal space “I don't know how many people see this. It's just.. be aware you are interrupting someone's privacy. So at least, especially the younger generation that I think are the ones that take it for granted that a picture is for free and a selfie is a must. At least some message, I think, more to the younger generation of it's not normal to go on ask. Just be nice, be polite. And that's the only message I guess I use this moment for.”

Carlos just asking fans to be a little bit kinder and respectful towards driver’s personal space “I don't know how many people see this. It's just.. be aware you are interrupting someone's privacy. So at least, especially the younger generation that I think are the ones that take it for granted that a picture is for free and a selfie is a must. At least some message, I think, more to the younger generation of it's not normal to go on ask. Just be nice, be polite. And that's the only message I guess I use this moment for.”

ari 🦄✨

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ELON MUSK: "Probably the biggest danger for AI and robotics, going wrong is government. The way people who are opposed to corporations or worried about corporations, should really worry most about government, because government is just a corporation in the limit. Government is just the biggest corporation with a monopoly on violence. I always find it strange where people would think corporations are bad, but the government is good, when government is simply the biggest and worst corporation. I actually think that is the thing to be worried about. It's like the government could potentially use AI and robotics to suppress the population. I think that, like, if you have a limited government, you limit the powers of government, which is what the US Constitution is intended to do, then you're probably gonna have a better outcome than if you have more government."

ELON MUSK: "Probably the biggest danger for AI and robotics, going wrong is government. The way people who are opposed to corporations or worried about corporations, should really worry most about government, because government is just a corporation in the limit. Government is just the biggest corporation with a monopoly on violence. I always find it strange where people would think corporations are bad, but the government is good, when government is simply the biggest and worst corporation. I actually think that is the thing to be worried about. It's like the government could potentially use AI and robotics to suppress the population. I think that, like, if you have a limited government, you limit the powers of government, which is what the US Constitution is intended to do, then you're probably gonna have a better outcome than if you have more government."

DogeDesigner

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Threadguy explains why his gut says on-chain mania is starting right now and the timeline is wrong "My gut says we have a seriously real chance for mania to happen on-chain and it's starting now. The same spidey feeling that told me 8 months ago that we should openly FUD the living shit out of meme coins, and was pretty right about it, is telling me that things are optimistic right now and it's worth chasing some stuff because the risk reward is great." "The timeline is saying you absolute imbecile, how could you possibly think that this god forsaken place could ever have excitement again. But I think I lose money when I listen to the timeline. And most of the people that are really vocally bearish are only trading stocks now. They're only trading stocks."

Threadguy explains why his gut says on-chain mania is starting right now and the timeline is wrong "My gut says we have a seriously real chance for mania to happen on-chain and it's starting now. The same spidey feeling that told me 8 months ago that we should openly FUD the living shit out of meme coins, and was pretty right about it, is telling me that things are optimistic right now and it's worth chasing some stuff because the risk reward is great." "The timeline is saying you absolute imbecile, how could you possibly think that this god forsaken place could ever have excitement again. But I think I lose money when I listen to the timeline. And most of the people that are really vocally bearish are only trading stocks now. They're only trading stocks."

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🚨 DAVID SACKS: “I very much agree with the Pope that the biggest risk of AI is the centralization of power and then its misuse against us, in some Orwellian way. I think it's government that's going to do that.”

🚨 DAVID SACKS: “I very much agree with the Pope that the biggest risk of AI is the centralization of power and then its misuse against us, in some Orwellian way. I think it's government that's going to do that.”

Chief Nerd

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Matt Hougan breaks down the five narratives that make this bull market more durable than previous rallies "I think there are, like, four narratives that are working in crypto, maybe five. This isn't just a crypto bid, which is what we previously saw in the past." "I think Bitcoin is being driven by the debasement bid. I think there's a stablecoin and tokenization bid that is lifting things like Ethereum and Solana and Chainlink and other assets in that space." "I think there's an improving tokenomics bid, where people are excited about assets with cash flow, I think that's why you're seeing Hyperliquid. I think if there was a Uniswap ETF, it would be doing well." "Then I think there is the Zcash privacy bid. The other bid is probably this retail degen." "The reason I raise all those is, like, that's a really robust bull market. When it's just risk-on, risk-off, we're one tweet away from Scott Bessent going into a bear market. But that's not what it is right now." "It's debasement, it's tokenization, it's improving tokenomics, it's privacy, it's memetic culture. All of those are firing at once." "Really, the market has turned because you have all these narratives working at once."

Matt Hougan breaks down the five narratives that make this bull market more durable than previous rallies "I think there are, like, four narratives that are working in crypto, maybe five. This isn't just a crypto bid, which is what we previously saw in the past." "I think Bitcoin is being driven by the debasement bid. I think there's a stablecoin and tokenization bid that is lifting things like Ethereum and Solana and Chainlink and other assets in that space." "I think there's an improving tokenomics bid, where people are excited about assets with cash flow, I think that's why you're seeing Hyperliquid. I think if there was a Uniswap ETF, it would be doing well." "Then I think there is the Zcash privacy bid. The other bid is probably this retail degen." "The reason I raise all those is, like, that's a really robust bull market. When it's just risk-on, risk-off, we're one tweet away from Scott Bessent going into a bear market. But that's not what it is right now." "It's debasement, it's tokenization, it's improving tokenomics, it's privacy, it's memetic culture. All of those are firing at once." "Really, the market has turned because you have all these narratives working at once."

The Wolf Of All Streets

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🚨| Sir Lewis Hamilton asked about his radio message from practice, and whether he is confident in the car for tomorrow. "Well, I mean, we'll work on it. I think it's just the way of this track, you know. It's a massively demanding circuit. It's amazing to drive. But getting the right balance, and I think, interestingly, there's something... I think it's just something in how this car is set up. There's kind of some similarities to what I felt last year, so we're just working on that." "So I'm confident overnight we can find something and get it to a better place. But it's an awesome circuit. But you need to be able to sit on the rear and be comfortable that it's going to stay with you. And today I had the snaps. It just can't seem to match the other guys. So I think we'll do a deep dive tonight. We'll get some interesting readings from the simulator. But I feel like I've got a bit of a north star. It's just how do we get there. And so we're going to try and figure that out." F1 2026 || Japan

🚨| Sir Lewis Hamilton asked about his radio message from practice, and whether he is confident in the car for tomorrow. "Well, I mean, we'll work on it. I think it's just the way of this track, you know. It's a massively demanding circuit. It's amazing to drive. But getting the right balance, and I think, interestingly, there's something... I think it's just something in how this car is set up. There's kind of some similarities to what I felt last year, so we're just working on that." "So I'm confident overnight we can find something and get it to a better place. But it's an awesome circuit. But you need to be able to sit on the rear and be comfortable that it's going to stay with you. And today I had the snaps. It just can't seem to match the other guys. So I think we'll do a deep dive tonight. We'll get some interesting readings from the simulator. But I feel like I've got a bit of a north star. It's just how do we get there. And so we're going to try and figure that out." F1 2026 || Japan

sim 🇧🇷🇲🇽🇸🇳🇫🇷🇭🇹

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Chamath’s 2026 IPO Advice: Get Public Fast or Get Left Behind Jason: “ What are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential IPOs?” Chamath: “I think that we have a bit of a risk problem. If you think about appetite as equivalent to a person at a Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come in and you see all of this stuff, it's so plentiful, your eyes are bigger than your stomach. And I think in a moment like that, you want to be the one that is consumed first. And I think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space.” Jason: “Plate fills up. Yeah.” Chamath: “And if you use that analogy, I think the reason why people's plates will get full is probably twofold and maybe threefold. The first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that people generally want to be risk off and have more margin of safety. We have a lot of these really important financial moments tied to this concept of AGI, ASI. We have a real pricing problem. If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none. If AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly. History will sort out which one is right, but both cannot be right. So in that vein, I don't think we're going to have this “blockbuster” stream of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out. They're going to do great, and then maybe the next one does good to great, then the next one will do good, and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb, incrementally, trillions of dollars of new demand. And if you think about it, where is it going to come from? Is it going to come from the sidelines? I don't know, I think it's more of a reallocation exercise. But if you look at the S&P, well, most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things, towards the things that are more protected, what the industry calls HALO, right? Those things trade for zero today. You could buy hundreds of millions of dollars a year of cashflow for 2-5x right now in the stock market. And so why are you going to go way out on the risk curve and buy something at 200x revenue, let alone earnings? I'm more in the camp of, I think it's good to be first, it’s pretty decent to be second, but if I were you, I would get the heck out, and get public, and get your money, and fortify your balance sheet ASAP, because I think the risk builds the further down the IPO chain you're in.”

Chamath’s 2026 IPO Advice: Get Public Fast or Get Left Behind Jason: “ What are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential IPOs?” Chamath: “I think that we have a bit of a risk problem. If you think about appetite as equivalent to a person at a Thanksgiving dinner, when you first come in and you see all of this stuff, it's so plentiful, your eyes are bigger than your stomach. And I think in a moment like that, you want to be the one that is consumed first. And I think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space.” Jason: “Plate fills up. Yeah.” Chamath: “And if you use that analogy, I think the reason why people's plates will get full is probably twofold and maybe threefold. The first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that people generally want to be risk off and have more margin of safety. We have a lot of these really important financial moments tied to this concept of AGI, ASI. We have a real pricing problem. If AGI is real, the durability of most companies is slim to none. If AGI is not real, then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly. History will sort out which one is right, but both cannot be right. So in that vein, I don't think we're going to have this “blockbuster” stream of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out. They're going to do great, and then maybe the next one does good to great, then the next one will do good, and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb, incrementally, trillions of dollars of new demand. And if you think about it, where is it going to come from? Is it going to come from the sidelines? I don't know, I think it's more of a reallocation exercise. But if you look at the S&P, well, most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things, towards the things that are more protected, what the industry calls HALO, right? Those things trade for zero today. You could buy hundreds of millions of dollars a year of cashflow for 2-5x right now in the stock market. And so why are you going to go way out on the risk curve and buy something at 200x revenue, let alone earnings? I'm more in the camp of, I think it's good to be first, it’s pretty decent to be second, but if I were you, I would get the heck out, and get public, and get your money, and fortify your balance sheet ASAP, because I think the risk builds the further down the IPO chain you're in.”

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BREAKING: Iran just BOMBED the world's BIGGEST Oil Field in Saudi Arabia, and this could cause WW3... This is literally the worst thing Iran could've done, and it's going to affect the world. What do you think?

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Alex Barnicoat

234,470 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Elon Musk: My biggest advice is to make sure to have children. “I really want to emphasize that it's important to have children and to create the new generation. And as simple as it sounds, if people do not have children, there is no new generation. I'm very much in favor of humanity expanding and creating a bright and exciting future for the world. But fundamental to the furtherance of human civilization is having humans, as simple and basic as that sounds. And every year I look at the birth rates and I'm like, it's a bit depressing because birth rates seem to decline every year. My biggest advice to government leaders and to the people in general, would be to make sure to have children, to create the new generation. And I think any incentives that can be done to incent the new generation, to make it easier for women to have children and to support the children, I think would be very wise. This is so fundamental, and I really can't emphasize that enough. If you don't have a new generation, there is no new generation.” Atreju Festival, December 16, 2023.

Elon Musk: My biggest advice is to make sure to have children. “I really want to emphasize that it's important to have children and to create the new generation. And as simple as it sounds, if people do not have children, there is no new generation. I'm very much in favor of humanity expanding and creating a bright and exciting future for the world. But fundamental to the furtherance of human civilization is having humans, as simple and basic as that sounds. And every year I look at the birth rates and I'm like, it's a bit depressing because birth rates seem to decline every year. My biggest advice to government leaders and to the people in general, would be to make sure to have children, to create the new generation. And I think any incentives that can be done to incent the new generation, to make it easier for women to have children and to support the children, I think would be very wise. This is so fundamental, and I really can't emphasize that enough. If you don't have a new generation, there is no new generation.” Atreju Festival, December 16, 2023.

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Jabari Smith Jr on Kevin Durant and his workout routine: "It's just gonna be full speed from the jump. You think at that age obviously you don't wanna warm up. We get off the training table and from there it's 100% full speed. Every rep is a game rep...it makes you do that. So I think I've definitely learned that from him just making every practice rep fast in the game, repping to make the game easier. Everything you hear is real, his work ethic is real, how hard he works is real"

Oh No He Didn't

31,528 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The Onion Theory of Risk by Marc Andreessen: "I think the single biggest thing entrepreneurs are missing, both on fundraising and how they run their companies, is the relationship between risk and cash. The relationship between risk and raising cash, and then the relationship between risk and spending cash. So I've always been a fan of something that Andy Ratcliffe taught me years ago, which he called the onion theory of risk. Um, which basically is, you can think about a startup like on day one, um, as having every conceivable kind of risk, right? And you can basically just make a list of the risks. And so you've got, you know, founding team risk. You know, do the founders, are the founders gonna be able to work together? Do you have the right founders? You're gonna have product risk. You know, can you build a product? You'll have technical risk, right? Which is maybe you need a machine learning breakthrough or something to make it work. Are you gonna be able to do that? Um, you'll have, you know, launch risk. Will the launch go well? You'll have, you know, market acceptance risk. You'll have revenue risk. A big risk you get into in a lot of businesses that have a sales force is, can you actually sell the product for enough money to actually pay for the cost of sale? So you have the cost of sale risk. If you're a consumer product, you'll have a viral growth risk. Well, you get the thing of viral growth. And so, a startup at the very beginning is basically just this long list of risks. And then the way that I always think about running a startup is also the way I think about raising money, which is it's a process of peeling away layers of risk as you go. And so you raise seed money in order to peel away the first two or three risks. The founding team risk, the product risk, and maybe the initial launch risk. You raise the A round to peel away the next level of product risk. Maybe you peel away some recruiting risk because you get your full engineering team built. Maybe you peel away some customer risk because you get your first five beta customers. And so basically the way to think about it is you're peeling away risk as you go. You're peeling away risk by achieving milestones. And then as you achieve milestones, you're both making progress in your business, and you're justifying raising more capital. And so you come in, and you pitch somebody like us, and you say you're raising a B round. The best way to do that with us is you say, okay, I raised a seed round, I achieved these milestones, I eliminated these risks. I raised the A round, I achieved these milestones, and I eliminated these risks. Now I'm gonna raise a B round. Here are my milestones, here are my risks. And then by the time I go to raise a seed round, here's the state that I'll be in. And then you calibrate the amount of money that you raise to spend to the risks that you're pulling out of the business. And I go through all this, in a sense this sounds kind of obvious, but I go through all this because it's a systematic way to think about how the money gets raised and deployed. As compared to so much of what's happening, especially these days, which is just, my God, let me go raise as much money as I can. Let me go build the fancy offices, let me go hire as many people as I can, and just kind of hope for the best."

The Onion Theory of Risk by Marc Andreessen: "I think the single biggest thing entrepreneurs are missing, both on fundraising and how they run their companies, is the relationship between risk and cash. The relationship between risk and raising cash, and then the relationship between risk and spending cash. So I've always been a fan of something that Andy Ratcliffe taught me years ago, which he called the onion theory of risk. Um, which basically is, you can think about a startup like on day one, um, as having every conceivable kind of risk, right? And you can basically just make a list of the risks. And so you've got, you know, founding team risk. You know, do the founders, are the founders gonna be able to work together? Do you have the right founders? You're gonna have product risk. You know, can you build a product? You'll have technical risk, right? Which is maybe you need a machine learning breakthrough or something to make it work. Are you gonna be able to do that? Um, you'll have, you know, launch risk. Will the launch go well? You'll have, you know, market acceptance risk. You'll have revenue risk. A big risk you get into in a lot of businesses that have a sales force is, can you actually sell the product for enough money to actually pay for the cost of sale? So you have the cost of sale risk. If you're a consumer product, you'll have a viral growth risk. Well, you get the thing of viral growth. And so, a startup at the very beginning is basically just this long list of risks. And then the way that I always think about running a startup is also the way I think about raising money, which is it's a process of peeling away layers of risk as you go. And so you raise seed money in order to peel away the first two or three risks. The founding team risk, the product risk, and maybe the initial launch risk. You raise the A round to peel away the next level of product risk. Maybe you peel away some recruiting risk because you get your full engineering team built. Maybe you peel away some customer risk because you get your first five beta customers. And so basically the way to think about it is you're peeling away risk as you go. You're peeling away risk by achieving milestones. And then as you achieve milestones, you're both making progress in your business, and you're justifying raising more capital. And so you come in, and you pitch somebody like us, and you say you're raising a B round. The best way to do that with us is you say, okay, I raised a seed round, I achieved these milestones, I eliminated these risks. I raised the A round, I achieved these milestones, and I eliminated these risks. Now I'm gonna raise a B round. Here are my milestones, here are my risks. And then by the time I go to raise a seed round, here's the state that I'll be in. And then you calibrate the amount of money that you raise to spend to the risks that you're pulling out of the business. And I go through all this, in a sense this sounds kind of obvious, but I go through all this because it's a systematic way to think about how the money gets raised and deployed. As compared to so much of what's happening, especially these days, which is just, my God, let me go raise as much money as I can. Let me go build the fancy offices, let me go hire as many people as I can, and just kind of hope for the best."

Founder Mode

106,909 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад