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THREE BEAR SIGNALS. THREE DROPS. ZERO EXCEPTIONS. 2015: -48%. 2018: -42%. 2022: -55%. 2026: triggered. -0% so far. Reclaim $72K: bulls invalidate history. Stay below: the fourth drop begins. The signal doesn't care it's early.

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Merlijn The Trader

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41,857 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 BITCOIN WEEKLY RSI JUST HIT A HISTORICAL LEVEL The weekly RSI dropping below 30 has only happened four times in history. This means that Bitcoin is extremely oversold and is likely due for a move higher. 2015, 2018, 2022 → all three times led to Bitcoin bull runs. It just happened for the fourth time. This time likely won’t be any different. This is your sign.

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🚨 $BTC CYCLE CLOCK HAS NEVER BEEN WRONG Bear: 365 days Bull: 1,064 days Then repeat Every previuos cycle - 2015, 2018, 2022 - confirmed every time without exception We're on day 252 of the current bear. That means we could expect reversal around 110 days out Most of CT is debating macro and waiting for a catalyst - completely missing the one pattern that has called every cycle The 1,064-day bull that follows is where the real move happens - not in the recovery tweet you see after it's already up 40% This is basically the simplest model in crypto with perfect track record - three cycles, zero misses As for me, everything below $59k is worth DCA'ing, but Q4 is the window I'm building for Everything between now and then is positioning, not panic Don't say you weren't warned later Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated!

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Q1 is officially over, and it was the worst quarter for the stock market since 2022 and for Bitcoin since 2018. Oil surged 80%, driving the entire drawdown in just 32 trading days. Tonight Trump addresses the nation on Iran at 9 PM Eastern, and this is decision week: if the S&P doesn't recover above the 200-day SMA within the next few days, history points to another 13-15% drawdown, which maps to a Bitcoin target in the low 50Ks. The core PCE delay means the next three inflation prints will all be bad regardless of what happens with the war. Here's my full Q2 game plan. 0:00 Q1 Recap: Worst Quarter Since 2022 4:17 The Iran Situation: Trump's Speech Tonight 8:45 Oil Price Is the Only Chart That Matters 14:22 Gold: the Best Macro Play Right Now 17:00 Inflation, Core PCE, and the Fed's Delay Problem 22:00 Short-Term News vs Long-Term Data 25:15 Why the Next Three Inflation Prints Will Be Bad 30:05 Unemployment: When Bad News Is Good News 33:40 S&P 200-Day SMA: Decision Week 40:15 Two Standard Deviations: the Crash Signal 42:47 Bitcoin Scenarios: 63K to Low 50Ks 48:50 Full Catalyst Calendar for Q2
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Q1 is officially over, and it was the worst quarter for the stock market since 2022 and for Bitcoin since 2018. Oil surged 80%, driving the entire drawdown in just 32 trading days. Tonight Trump addresses the nation on Iran at 9 PM Eastern, and this is decision week: if the S&P doesn't recover above the 200-day SMA within the next few days, history points to another 13-15% drawdown, which maps to a Bitcoin target in the low 50Ks. The core PCE delay means the next three inflation prints will all be bad regardless of what happens with the war. Here's my full Q2 game plan. 0:00 Q1 Recap: Worst Quarter Since 2022 4:17 The Iran Situation: Trump's Speech Tonight 8:45 Oil Price Is the Only Chart That Matters 14:22 Gold: the Best Macro Play Right Now 17:00 Inflation, Core PCE, and the Fed's Delay Problem 22:00 Short-Term News vs Long-Term Data 25:15 Why the Next Three Inflation Prints Will Be Bad 30:05 Unemployment: When Bad News Is Good News 33:40 S&P 200-Day SMA: Decision Week 40:15 Two Standard Deviations: the Crash Signal 42:47 Bitcoin Scenarios: 63K to Low 50Ks 48:50 Full Catalyst Calendar for Q2

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$BTC BOTTOMS ONE YEAR AFTER EVERY CYCLE PEAK Look at this chart 2018 peak -> 12 bars -> 2019 bottom = Exactly one year 2022 peak -> 12 bars -> 2023 bottom = Exactly one year The 2025 cycle peak was October 2025 Which means the bottom lands in October 2026 Three signals confirm this: And the math backs this up Average drawdown across three cycles is -83% - we're at -54% right now with months left That gap doesn't close itself GET READY! I predicted the BTC 2025 ATH (check the pinned thread) All the local moves and bear market patterns you could have known too if you'd been following me The next updates will be the most important ones as we're standing on the verge of a structure change I'll let you know as soon as I start actively loading spot Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner

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Ethereum is quietly setting up a possible move to $3,700–$4,200. This is the same post-QT pattern that played out last cycle. Meanwhile, so many are calling the Bitcoin 200-day rejection a bear market signal. Last time it happened in 2022, QT was just getting announced. 200 day resistance in 2018 we were in the middle of first ever QT. This time, QT just ENDED in December. It's an opposite macro environment, so we should consider other explanations at the very least. It's unpopular to consider that crypto doesn't look as bad as it seems, but here you go anyway! Upside and downside discussed here. Intro 00:00 BTC 200 day resistance 1:10 This is not 2022 2:00 4 year cycles 3:55 What's going on with altcoins? 5:00 Eth altcoin analysis 6:30 Ethereum price target 10:00
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Ethereum is quietly setting up a possible move to $3,700–$4,200. This is the same post-QT pattern that played out last cycle. Meanwhile, so many are calling the Bitcoin 200-day rejection a bear market signal. Last time it happened in 2022, QT was just getting announced. 200 day resistance in 2018 we were in the middle of first ever QT. This time, QT just ENDED in December. It's an opposite macro environment, so we should consider other explanations at the very least. It's unpopular to consider that crypto doesn't look as bad as it seems, but here you go anyway! Upside and downside discussed here. Intro 00:00 BTC 200 day resistance 1:10 This is not 2022 2:00 4 year cycles 3:55 What's going on with altcoins? 5:00 Eth altcoin analysis 6:30 Ethereum price target 10:00

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Fertility is collapsing all around the world, not just in the developed West: - Mexico now has lower fertility than the US (even non-Hispanic whites!). - Arab-Israeli fertility is now lower than that of Jewish Israelis. - For first time in 200 years, rich people are having MORE kids than poor. Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (Jesús Fernández-Villaverde) sat down with me and Pieter Garicano to talk about the economics of the fertility collapse, why education can be such a curse for birth rates, why the collapse is happening almost as much in the Muslim and developing worlds as in the rich world, and why so many attempts to address it fail. We also discuss 'no regrets' policies that could help: clearer data for students about the value (or not) of college degrees; lotteries for admissions to the top universities; subsidies for third or fourth children; and, of course, bigger, nicer and more plentiful housing. Listen now. Links below. 0:07:48 Japan’s GDP output per worker vs. per capita 0:16:21 The debt paradox: Why are East Asian bonds still cheap despite demographic decline? 0:24:37 Fertility is falling faster in Mexico than the US 0:34:00 The rapid fall of TFRs across the Muslim world 0:42:11 Zero-to-one versus two-to-three children 0:51:00 A ‘no-regrets’ policy for fertility and welfare 0:55:48 The education trap 1:07:31 The grim returns on certain college degrees 1:11:46 Why policies must incentivize the third child, not the first.
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Fertility is collapsing all around the world, not just in the developed West: - Mexico now has lower fertility than the US (even non-Hispanic whites!). - Arab-Israeli fertility is now lower than that of Jewish Israelis. - For first time in 200 years, rich people are having MORE kids than poor. Economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (Jesús Fernández-Villaverde) sat down with me and Pieter Garicano to talk about the economics of the fertility collapse, why education can be such a curse for birth rates, why the collapse is happening almost as much in the Muslim and developing worlds as in the rich world, and why so many attempts to address it fail. We also discuss 'no regrets' policies that could help: clearer data for students about the value (or not) of college degrees; lotteries for admissions to the top universities; subsidies for third or fourth children; and, of course, bigger, nicer and more plentiful housing. Listen now. Links below. 0:07:48 Japan’s GDP output per worker vs. per capita 0:16:21 The debt paradox: Why are East Asian bonds still cheap despite demographic decline? 0:24:37 Fertility is falling faster in Mexico than the US 0:34:00 The rapid fall of TFRs across the Muslim world 0:42:11 Zero-to-one versus two-to-three children 0:51:00 A ‘no-regrets’ policy for fertility and welfare 0:55:48 The education trap 1:07:31 The grim returns on certain college degrees 1:11:46 Why policies must incentivize the third child, not the first.

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🚨 ETH JUST REJECTED FROM MAJOR RESISTANCE Since the $4,950 top in October, every single bounce has died on one descending trendline October, January, May - and now July at $1,860. Fourth tag, fourth rejection That line is the bear market. As long as price lives below it, rallies are exits, not entries The EMA100 is curling down right above it, so sellers get two layers of confuence at the same spot All the fundamentals agree with the chart: > ETH is down 45% since January > First THREE consecutive red quarterly candles in Ethereum's history > US spot ETFs bled over $10B in 2026, holdings down from 6.14M to 5.19M ETH > Network fees so low that supply is turning inflationary again Institutions aren't buying this dip. They've been handing it to retail for months Target: $1,343 Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated

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🚨 This is what straight talk sounds like — two guys (Stephen LeDrew & Dan McTeague Dan McTeague ) who actually get it dropping truth bombs on Canada’s death spiral. ⛔️ Net zero? Carbon taxes on every single industry, jacked up again and again. Construction? Trades? Dead unless you’ve got a government sinecure. Young Canadians are packing up and heading to the USA because they can’t afford to stay here. One of them nails it: “We pushed net zero so hard… demonized a life-saving molecule called CO₂… all to virtue-signal we can change the weather. It’s false science and terrible politics.” And Carney? The “smart banker” who screwed up Britain is just the next chapter of the same Liberal disaster. Media’s already running cover, but the tent cities and food banks don’t lie. Canadians voted for this three times. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Now they’re hoping the fourth time is different? Wake the hell up. This economy isn’t “transitioning” — it’s collapsing. And Carney’s net-zero religion is the wrecking ball. Drop a 🔥 if you’re done watching Canada get destroyed by ideology. #cdnpoli #NetZeroScam #CarneyGrift #LiberalFailure #CanadaFirst #CarbonTaxLie
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🚨 This is what straight talk sounds like — two guys (Stephen LeDrew & Dan McTeague Dan McTeague ) who actually get it dropping truth bombs on Canada’s death spiral. ⛔️ Net zero? Carbon taxes on every single industry, jacked up again and again. Construction? Trades? Dead unless you’ve got a government sinecure. Young Canadians are packing up and heading to the USA because they can’t afford to stay here. One of them nails it: “We pushed net zero so hard… demonized a life-saving molecule called CO₂… all to virtue-signal we can change the weather. It’s false science and terrible politics.” And Carney? The “smart banker” who screwed up Britain is just the next chapter of the same Liberal disaster. Media’s already running cover, but the tent cities and food banks don’t lie. Canadians voted for this three times. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Now they’re hoping the fourth time is different? Wake the hell up. This economy isn’t “transitioning” — it’s collapsing. And Carney’s net-zero religion is the wrecking ball. Drop a 🔥 if you’re done watching Canada get destroyed by ideology. #cdnpoli #NetZeroScam #CarneyGrift #LiberalFailure #CanadaFirst #CarbonTaxLie

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Only someone who wrote speeches for Donald Trump in 2015, voted for him three times and lost friends defending him can fully understand how painful the current betrayal is. Uncle Buck explains. 0:00 Monologue 2:20 Why Did Buckley Support Trump So Early On? 13:14 John McCain Leading the Charge Against Big Tobacco 23:55 Obama’s Presidency and Buckley’s Speeches for Trump 41:17 Reminiscing About the Trump We Had in 2020 48:16 Trump's Hatred of WASPs and His 2016 Victory Party 1:02:44 Homosexuality in Politics, Caretaking, and Ben Shapiro 1:10:20 The Failures of Trump 1:26:01 When Support for Trump Became Dissent 1:32:37 Trump’s Failure to Stand Up for Americans 1:41:22 Trump’s Failure to Investigate Charlie Kirk’s Assassination 1:48:13 The Epstein Files, 9/11 Files, and JFK Files 1:50:52 Trump’s Betrayal of Marjorie Taylor Greene 2:00:09 Has This Been the Plan? Where Does This Go? 2:13:24 Does Buckley Feel Personally Threatened?

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🚨 PAY ATTENTION Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be defined by price. The only thing that matters now: Time. Every Bitcoin cycle follows the same structure: 35 bars expansion + 12 bars contraction. 2015–2017: expansion 2018: contraction 2018–2021: expansion 2022: contraction Now look at where we are. The expansion phase is complete. The contraction has just begun. And this phase always takes time. Days from cycle top → final low: 2012: ~400 days 2016: ~360 days 2020: ~370 days We are not there yet. Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is: July–November 2026. That matters more than any price level people are watching. Most traders think like this: “I’ll buy when it hits X.” But real bottoms don’t form at obvious levels. Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens. July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price. If one of those conditions is met, I buy. No hesitation. Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already. Even though the timing window isn’t here yet. Back in October, around $120k, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k. People ignored it. “BTC will never go below $100k again.” Now we’re here. And there’s still one signal missing: NUPL. Every major bottom: - 2018 - COVID - 2022 Formed when NUPL entered the blue zone. We haven’t seen that yet. Remember: For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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🚨 PAY ATTENTION Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be defined by price. The only thing that matters now: Time. Every Bitcoin cycle follows the same structure: 35 bars expansion + 12 bars contraction. 2015–2017: expansion 2018: contraction 2018–2021: expansion 2022: contraction Now look at where we are. The expansion phase is complete. The contraction has just begun. And this phase always takes time. Days from cycle top → final low: 2012: ~400 days 2016: ~360 days 2020: ~370 days We are not there yet. Based on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is: July–November 2026. That matters more than any price level people are watching. Most traders think like this: “I’ll buy when it hits X.” But real bottoms don’t form at obvious levels. Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens. July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price. If one of those conditions is met, I buy. No hesitation. Yes, I started accumulating in the $60k range already. Even though the timing window isn’t here yet. Back in October, around $120k, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k. People ignored it. “BTC will never go below $100k again.” Now we’re here. And there’s still one signal missing: NUPL. Every major bottom: - 2018 - COVID - 2022 Formed when NUPL entered the blue zone. We haven’t seen that yet. Remember: For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

1,145,142 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

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🚨 What's happening right now already happened in 2022 The same MANIPULATION is forming again for Bitcoin History suggests a much bigger move is coming 2022: Top 1 → Сorrection → Top 2 → 120-day range with a bull trap → dump → Manipulation → Accumulation 2026: Top 1 → Сorrection → Top 2 → 120-day range with a bull trap → dump → Manipulation → Accumulation Most people think the worst is already behind us, but if you compare it to 2022, this is exactly what the market looked like before the most painful part began Only after major manipulation did the market show real fear and most people capitulated I've told you this before, you need to remember that there are 3 phases: - Distribution - Manipulation - Accumulation Right now, the structure looks disturbingly familiar So far, all I see on the chart is manipulation aimed at taking liquidity from both longs and shorts Of course, the market doesn't have to repeat 2022, but the similarities are absolutely insane And if you hide the dates on both charts, the resemblance is way too strong to ignore I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan The problem is that most people will realize it too late because they're not following me Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below The next phase is gonna be very important

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Freedomain Makeup Tutorial! Stefan Molyneux joins his daughter Izzy on Sunday Morning Live 22 February 2026 for a makeup session where she takes the lead on applying products, and they chat about how beauty standards have changed over time. They talk about how looks tie into confidence, trading jokes on makeup tricks and how society views beauty through the lens of gender. Makeup comes across as a way to express creativity and figure out who you are, beyond just looking good. Izzy weighs in on going light versus going all out, and Molyneux shares some personal anecdotes that influence their takes on self-care and identity. They touch on common beauty expectations, shifts in gender roles, and what traditional femininity brings to the table. With some laughs and stories from their time together, they get into how this kind of collaboration builds bonds, wrapping up with thoughts on self-image and fitting in today. Chapters: 0:00:00 The Transformation Begins 0:00:31 Educational Element of Makeup 0:01:23 The Purpose of This Makeup 0:02:42 David Bowie and Aesthetics 0:02:52 Suggestions from the Audience 0:03:25 Makeup Application Process 0:05:11 The Experience of Makeup 0:06:25 Squigglies and Artistic Expression 0:06:48 The Challenges of Makeup 0:07:02 Protective Measures in Makeup 0:09:00 Makeup and Gender Identity 0:14:38 Makeup for the Camera 0:19:12 Exploring the Makeup Process 0:25:39 The Transformation Journey 0:30:24 Makeup and Self-Perception 0:34:08 The Nature of Beauty 0:47:58 The Final Touches 0:57:36 The Lip Plumping Experience 1:01:54 Makeup and Social Dynamics 1:09:07 The Importance of Self-Care 1:13:25 Looks and Relationships 1:15:00 First Impressions Matter 1:16:25 The Importance of Skincare 1:19:10 Care vs. Obsession 1:21:43 Makeup and Gender Dynamics 1:26:29 Makeup as a Form of Expression 1:31:10 The Role of Appearance in Dating 1:34:35 Long Nails and Feminine Signals 1:40:32 Hair Color and Identity 1:45:31 Scarcity and Personal Growth 1:53:12 The Eye of Horus 2:07:57 Makeup Removal Strategies 2:14:46 The Eye of Horus and Rage Baiting 2:22:13 Reflections on the Experience GET FREEDOMAIN MERCH! SUBSCRIBE TO ME ON X! Follow me on Youtube! GET MY NEW BOOK 'PEACEFUL PARENTING', THE INTERACTIVE PEACEFUL PARENTING AI, AND THE FULL AUDIOBOOK! Join the PREMIUM philosophy community on the web for free! Subscribers get 12 HOURS on the "Truth About the French Revolution," multiple interactive multi-lingual philosophy AIs trained on thousands of hours of my material - as well as AIs for Real-Time Relationships, Bitcoin, Peaceful Parenting, and Call-In Shows! You also receive private livestreams, HUNDREDS of exclusive premium shows, early release podcasts, the 22 Part History of Philosophers series and much more! See you soon!

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1:02:35

The feedback on the Jeffrey Gundlach episode has been incredible, so I'm posting the pod here on X too. 🙏 In his debut on The Julia La Roche Show, Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, breaks down why private credit is an unmitigated disaster, why the next recession will send rates up and the dollar down, and why most American investors are completely unprepared for what's coming. Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction & welcome Jeffrey Gundlach 1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates 16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks 17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation 22:00 Private credit and why it's a “total unmitigated disaster" 38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury - next move a rate hike? 42:30 Recession odds 47:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history 50:00 The gold call 53:00 The most dangerous force in investing 56:00 California headed for bankruptcy? 1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election 1:02:00 The Fourth Turning

Julia La Roche

283,563 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 S&P 500 IS ENTERING EUPHORIA ZONE... The index just printed a fresh ATH near 7,600 50+ days of straight uptrend No meaningful pullbacks. No rebalancing. Just relentless grinding higher This is what the late stage of a cycle looks like And most people won't recognize it until it's already too late Here's what I actually think happens next First, the melt-up continues A push toward 7,700-7,800 is still on the table That's when distribution begins Smart money starts quietly exiting while retail is still buying the narrative Then comes the first sell-off Not big one - just enough to shake weak hands and breed complacency "See? It bounced. Everything's fine" That's the trap Because after the complacency phase ends, the real move starts And the real move goes toward 4,000-3,500 That's not a typo That's a 50%+ drawdown from current levels Now here's what makes this cycle different Three of the most hyped companies in the world - SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic - are all expected to go public in 2026 History is clear on what happens when the biggest IPOs in a generation arrive at same time 1999-2000: dot-com peak 2021: SPAC and tech euphoria peak Every time IPO pipeline floods at cycle highs, it's because insiders need liquidity They know something retail doesn't Add historically stretched valuations on top of that Add slowing buybacks - single biggest source of equity demand for past decade And you have a market that's priced for perfection in a world that stopped being perfect a long time ago Euphoria doesn't feel like risk That's exactly what makes it dangerous I've mapped this cycle for months When I see the distribution phase begin, I'll post the signal here - same as always Turn on notifs. You'll want to be early on this one
0:41

🚨 S&P 500 IS ENTERING EUPHORIA ZONE... The index just printed a fresh ATH near 7,600 50+ days of straight uptrend No meaningful pullbacks. No rebalancing. Just relentless grinding higher This is what the late stage of a cycle looks like And most people won't recognize it until it's already too late Here's what I actually think happens next First, the melt-up continues A push toward 7,700-7,800 is still on the table That's when distribution begins Smart money starts quietly exiting while retail is still buying the narrative Then comes the first sell-off Not big one - just enough to shake weak hands and breed complacency "See? It bounced. Everything's fine" That's the trap Because after the complacency phase ends, the real move starts And the real move goes toward 4,000-3,500 That's not a typo That's a 50%+ drawdown from current levels Now here's what makes this cycle different Three of the most hyped companies in the world - SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic - are all expected to go public in 2026 History is clear on what happens when the biggest IPOs in a generation arrive at same time 1999-2000: dot-com peak 2021: SPAC and tech euphoria peak Every time IPO pipeline floods at cycle highs, it's because insiders need liquidity They know something retail doesn't Add historically stretched valuations on top of that Add slowing buybacks - single biggest source of equity demand for past decade And you have a market that's priced for perfection in a world that stopped being perfect a long time ago Euphoria doesn't feel like risk That's exactly what makes it dangerous I've mapped this cycle for months When I see the distribution phase begin, I'll post the signal here - same as always Turn on notifs. You'll want to be early on this one

Aralez 🐕

63,381 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 ALTSEASON 2026: EARLY JULY AGGREGATED ANALYST & NARRATIVE BULL CASE TARGETS 🚀💎🌕 $SOL $280–$1,050+ $AVAX $58–$235+ $LINK $35–$145+ $ONDO $5.5–$36+ $NEAR $26–$120+ $FET/ASI $7–$55+ $RENDER $15–$98+ $TAO $1,050–$5,400+ $ETH $5,800–$21,000+ $RIVER $6–$48 + River River4FUN 🐝 $BNB $750–$3,600+ $XRP $2.8–$15.5+ $SUI $9.5–$60+ $HYPE $60–$320+ $GRASS $2.2–$17+ $AKT $4.5–$29+ $IO $9–$44+ $SUPRA $1–$6.2+ $INJ $42–$195+ $SEI $1.7–$10.5+ $PEAQ $0.35–$5.4+ $MODE $1.4–$8.5+ Fresh analyst reports, strengthening on-chain metrics, and rising X momentum this July point to these optimistic bull-case projections for an extended altseason into late 2026 and beyond. The setup assumes BTC dominance keeps fracturing, macro conditions stay supportive, and capital rotates hard into narratives with real usage and traction — especially AI × Decentralized Intelligence • DePIN & Real Infrastructure • RWA & Tokenization • Chain Abstraction & Seamless UX. These are not guarantees. Crypto is volatile. Risk management and position sizing always apply. NFA • DYOR • Purely for discussion & entertainment. Which narratives or specific projects are you stacking the hardest right now? Drop your top conviction plays, favorite analyst targets you’re seeing, or any hidden gems below 👇 LFG!!! 💥 The rotation is still building beautifully. (Vibes only • Informed optimism • Always do your own research)
0:32

🚨 ALTSEASON 2026: EARLY JULY AGGREGATED ANALYST & NARRATIVE BULL CASE TARGETS 🚀💎🌕 $SOL $280–$1,050+ $AVAX $58–$235+ $LINK $35–$145+ $ONDO $5.5–$36+ $NEAR $26–$120+ $FET/ASI $7–$55+ $RENDER $15–$98+ $TAO $1,050–$5,400+ $ETH $5,800–$21,000+ $RIVER $6–$48 + River River4FUN 🐝 $BNB $750–$3,600+ $XRP $2.8–$15.5+ $SUI $9.5–$60+ $HYPE $60–$320+ $GRASS $2.2–$17+ $AKT $4.5–$29+ $IO $9–$44+ $SUPRA $1–$6.2+ $INJ $42–$195+ $SEI $1.7–$10.5+ $PEAQ $0.35–$5.4+ $MODE $1.4–$8.5+ Fresh analyst reports, strengthening on-chain metrics, and rising X momentum this July point to these optimistic bull-case projections for an extended altseason into late 2026 and beyond. The setup assumes BTC dominance keeps fracturing, macro conditions stay supportive, and capital rotates hard into narratives with real usage and traction — especially AI × Decentralized Intelligence • DePIN & Real Infrastructure • RWA & Tokenization • Chain Abstraction & Seamless UX. These are not guarantees. Crypto is volatile. Risk management and position sizing always apply. NFA • DYOR • Purely for discussion & entertainment. Which narratives or specific projects are you stacking the hardest right now? Drop your top conviction plays, favorite analyst targets you’re seeing, or any hidden gems below 👇 LFG!!! 💥 The rotation is still building beautifully. (Vibes only • Informed optimism • Always do your own research)

Đecentralized Člub ©

14,746 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR BEGINS SELLING $BTC Man who said "you do not sell your Bitcoin" is now selling Bitcoin Market reacts with immediate panic selling: $BTC < $72K Let that sink in Strategy holds 843,738 BTC - purchased for $63.87 billion at an average price of $75,700 per coin That's the largest corporate Bitcoin position in history And for years, Saylor repeated same thing over and over: Never sell. Never waver. Never flinch Then on an earnings call in May 2026, he said this: "We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend - just to inoculate market" That single sentence broke a 5-year religion Here's what changed Strategy now carries $1.5B in annual preferred-stock dividend obligations Those dividends have to be paid in cash Bitcoin doesn't pay dividends So Saylor faces a choice: dilute shareholders with new equity, take on more debt or sell some BTC He chose door number three And there's more Company is sitting on $2.2 billion in unrealized tax benefits tied to high-cost-basis Bitcoin Selective sales could harvest those benefits - legally reducing their tax bill while offloading coins at the same time This isn't panic. This is optimization But here's what the market isn't pricing in Strategy owns approximately 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist If they become a consistent seller - even of small amounts - bid structure for BTC changes permanently Every fund, every ETF, every HODLer built their thesis on one assumption: Saylor is a buyer. Always That assumption just died The only time Strategy sold Bitcoin before this was December 2022 - 704 BTC for $11.8 million, purely for a tax loss This time the motivation is structural. Recurring. Tied to obligations that don't go away Watch the Coinbase Prime wallet Watch the 8-K filings The first real sale won't be announced - it'll be discovered I've been tracking institutional Bitcoin flows for years When the signal turns, I post it here first Turn on notifications. You'll want to be early on this one
0:30

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR BEGINS SELLING $BTC Man who said "you do not sell your Bitcoin" is now selling Bitcoin Market reacts with immediate panic selling: $BTC < $72K Let that sink in Strategy holds 843,738 BTC - purchased for $63.87 billion at an average price of $75,700 per coin That's the largest corporate Bitcoin position in history And for years, Saylor repeated same thing over and over: Never sell. Never waver. Never flinch Then on an earnings call in May 2026, he said this: "We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend - just to inoculate market" That single sentence broke a 5-year religion Here's what changed Strategy now carries $1.5B in annual preferred-stock dividend obligations Those dividends have to be paid in cash Bitcoin doesn't pay dividends So Saylor faces a choice: dilute shareholders with new equity, take on more debt or sell some BTC He chose door number three And there's more Company is sitting on $2.2 billion in unrealized tax benefits tied to high-cost-basis Bitcoin Selective sales could harvest those benefits - legally reducing their tax bill while offloading coins at the same time This isn't panic. This is optimization But here's what the market isn't pricing in Strategy owns approximately 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist If they become a consistent seller - even of small amounts - bid structure for BTC changes permanently Every fund, every ETF, every HODLer built their thesis on one assumption: Saylor is a buyer. Always That assumption just died The only time Strategy sold Bitcoin before this was December 2022 - 704 BTC for $11.8 million, purely for a tax loss This time the motivation is structural. Recurring. Tied to obligations that don't go away Watch the Coinbase Prime wallet Watch the 8-K filings The first real sale won't be announced - it'll be discovered I've been tracking institutional Bitcoin flows for years When the signal turns, I post it here first Turn on notifications. You'll want to be early on this one

Aralez 🐕

320,767 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Adam Brown (Adam Brown) is back! General relativity is said to be the most beautiful idea the human mind has ever produced. Most of us will never get to fully appreciate its elegance by taking the 20-lecture graduate course Adam taught on it at Stanford. But in the video below, Adam distills the key idea at its heart so clearly and compellingly that even I could keep up lol. At the core of general relativity, Einstein is trying to figure out the principle behind a particular coincidence: that the mass that resists acceleration and the mass that gravity pulls on just happen to be exactly the same. Adam then leads us through the path of insight which Einstein called his “happiest thought.” Then Adam lectures on black holes. First, by showing how even under special relativity you could create a perpetual motion machine if black holes weren't truly black. And then, by explaining why the observations of an infalling observer and a distant bystander to the black hole would be so radically different Adam leads Blueshift, the team at Google DeepMind cracking science and reasoning. Which gave us the opportunity to discuss at the very end how close we are to AIs that could rediscover general relativity from scratch. Stay till the close for some philosophy of science. 0:00:00 – The coincidence that led Einstein to general relativity 0:16:42 – Gravity is a consequence of curved spacetime, not a force 0:31:46 – Why black holes prevent unlimited energy extraction 0:47:12 – Black holes are the ultimate power plants 1:13:50 – What falling into a black hole would actually feel like 1:18:51 – The three ways we know black holes are real 1:24:21 – The first time we saw gravity bend light 1:29:33 – How far can AI get without experimental evidence? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube/Spotify to watch. Enjoy!
1:38:24

Adam Brown (Adam Brown) is back! General relativity is said to be the most beautiful idea the human mind has ever produced. Most of us will never get to fully appreciate its elegance by taking the 20-lecture graduate course Adam taught on it at Stanford. But in the video below, Adam distills the key idea at its heart so clearly and compellingly that even I could keep up lol. At the core of general relativity, Einstein is trying to figure out the principle behind a particular coincidence: that the mass that resists acceleration and the mass that gravity pulls on just happen to be exactly the same. Adam then leads us through the path of insight which Einstein called his “happiest thought.” Then Adam lectures on black holes. First, by showing how even under special relativity you could create a perpetual motion machine if black holes weren't truly black. And then, by explaining why the observations of an infalling observer and a distant bystander to the black hole would be so radically different Adam leads Blueshift, the team at Google DeepMind cracking science and reasoning. Which gave us the opportunity to discuss at the very end how close we are to AIs that could rediscover general relativity from scratch. Stay till the close for some philosophy of science. 0:00:00 – The coincidence that led Einstein to general relativity 0:16:42 – Gravity is a consequence of curved spacetime, not a force 0:31:46 – Why black holes prevent unlimited energy extraction 0:47:12 – Black holes are the ultimate power plants 1:13:50 – What falling into a black hole would actually feel like 1:18:51 – The three ways we know black holes are real 1:24:21 – The first time we saw gravity bend light 1:29:33 – How far can AI get without experimental evidence? Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube/Spotify to watch. Enjoy!

Dwarkesh Patel

640,970 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

PEAK APATHY: NO ONE CARES ABOUT BITCOIN... WHY NOW IS THE TIME TO DOUBLE DOWN (FULL EP) _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ & Michael Sullivan with Walker⚡️ IS THE BOTTOM IN? In this episode, I sit down with on-chain analyst James Check (Checkmate) and sentiment researcher Michael Sullivan to dig into their joint report "Peak Apathy" and what it really means when nobody gives a damn about Bitcoin. We go deep on why this bear market feels different, how language data, social sentiment and on-chain metrics are converging on some of the clearest accumulation signals since 2022, and why the most dangerous thing you can do right now is let the herd talk you out of stacking. Future You will thank you for watching this episode. "IT'S TIME TO DOUBLE DOWN." 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Peak Apathy Overview 3:48 - Why Nobody Cares About Bitcoin Right Now 10:44 - Algorithm Manipulation and Social Media Silos 12:00 - OG vs. Retail Anger and Sentiment Volatility 20:05 - Long Term Holder Selling and Cycle Differences 28:56 - Treasury Companies and Leverage Risk 35:56 - Post-Selloff Apathy Data 41:00 - On Chain Signals and the Third Capitulation 43:55 - DCA Strategy 46:53 - Four Year Cycle Myths 51:50 - Iran War Shorts and Getting Perfectly Wrong 58:00 - Mood as Market Signal, Not Trading Indicator 1:03:01 - Escaping Herd Mentality 1:05:50 - MVRV Ratio, Annoyance Cycles, and Data as Information 1:11:25 - Current Bullish Conviction and Accumulation Plan 1:13:35 - Ignoring Positive Narratives in Negative Emotional Regimes
1:19:40

PEAK APATHY: NO ONE CARES ABOUT BITCOIN... WHY NOW IS THE TIME TO DOUBLE DOWN (FULL EP) _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ & Michael Sullivan with Walker⚡️ IS THE BOTTOM IN? In this episode, I sit down with on-chain analyst James Check (Checkmate) and sentiment researcher Michael Sullivan to dig into their joint report "Peak Apathy" and what it really means when nobody gives a damn about Bitcoin. We go deep on why this bear market feels different, how language data, social sentiment and on-chain metrics are converging on some of the clearest accumulation signals since 2022, and why the most dangerous thing you can do right now is let the herd talk you out of stacking. Future You will thank you for watching this episode. "IT'S TIME TO DOUBLE DOWN." 0:00 - Intro 1:13 - Peak Apathy Overview 3:48 - Why Nobody Cares About Bitcoin Right Now 10:44 - Algorithm Manipulation and Social Media Silos 12:00 - OG vs. Retail Anger and Sentiment Volatility 20:05 - Long Term Holder Selling and Cycle Differences 28:56 - Treasury Companies and Leverage Risk 35:56 - Post-Selloff Apathy Data 41:00 - On Chain Signals and the Third Capitulation 43:55 - DCA Strategy 46:53 - Four Year Cycle Myths 51:50 - Iran War Shorts and Getting Perfectly Wrong 58:00 - Mood as Market Signal, Not Trading Indicator 1:03:01 - Escaping Herd Mentality 1:05:50 - MVRV Ratio, Annoyance Cycles, and Data as Information 1:11:25 - Current Bullish Conviction and Accumulation Plan 1:13:35 - Ignoring Positive Narratives in Negative Emotional Regimes

THE Bitcoin Podcast

12,435 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 S&P 500 FALLS IN THIS PERIOD 93% OF CASES 🚨 Every midterm election year since 1962 (May to October) = market dump Not sometimes. 15 out of 16 times The worst ones: - 1962: -22.16% - 1966: -21.22% - 1974: -33.1% - 2002: -30.54% - 2022: -18.9% Recessions, bubbles, rate cycles - none of it broke the pattern So what's actually driving this? Three things And they hit at the same time. every single cycle 1. THE PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE New presidents always front-load the difficult decisions - Tax reform - Spending cuts - Policy shifts Nobody wants to do this close to re-election So they push it all into the FIRST TWO YEARS The market absorbs all of that pain during the midterm window Years 3 and 4 flip the script - stimulus, rate cuts, liquidity back in the system Markets recover. President takes the credit Nobody mentions who caused the pain two years earlier 2. POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY Most people focus only on the president. They miss the bigger story Midterms can flip Congress overnight When that happens - taxes change, spending changes, every regulation is on the table Big money doesn't wait to find out which way it goes It reduces exposure before the vote and comes back once the dust settles Uncertainty doesn't just slow markets. It empties them That's exactly why smart money moves in May And why "Sell in May and go away" exists 3. THE FED TIMING PROBLEM There's a reason the Fed always seems to get the timing wrong They don't. It's intentional Rates go up in year 1 and 2. That's the pain nobody talks about on camera Then rates come down in year 3 and 4 - right when the president needs good headlines before re-election Midterm year always lands at the top of that rate cycle The most expensive moment to borrow. The hardest moment to grow The Fed didn't miscalculate. The calendar just exposed them And then there's 2026 New president in year 2. Fed still restrictive. Congress up for grabs Every condition is in place. All three forces active at the same time My target: 6,200 by October That's a 17% decline from current levels History says this move is more likely than not Are you positioned for it? NOTIFS ON!
0:45

🚨 S&P 500 FALLS IN THIS PERIOD 93% OF CASES 🚨 Every midterm election year since 1962 (May to October) = market dump Not sometimes. 15 out of 16 times The worst ones: - 1962: -22.16% - 1966: -21.22% - 1974: -33.1% - 2002: -30.54% - 2022: -18.9% Recessions, bubbles, rate cycles - none of it broke the pattern So what's actually driving this? Three things And they hit at the same time. every single cycle 1. THE PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE New presidents always front-load the difficult decisions - Tax reform - Spending cuts - Policy shifts Nobody wants to do this close to re-election So they push it all into the FIRST TWO YEARS The market absorbs all of that pain during the midterm window Years 3 and 4 flip the script - stimulus, rate cuts, liquidity back in the system Markets recover. President takes the credit Nobody mentions who caused the pain two years earlier 2. POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY Most people focus only on the president. They miss the bigger story Midterms can flip Congress overnight When that happens - taxes change, spending changes, every regulation is on the table Big money doesn't wait to find out which way it goes It reduces exposure before the vote and comes back once the dust settles Uncertainty doesn't just slow markets. It empties them That's exactly why smart money moves in May And why "Sell in May and go away" exists 3. THE FED TIMING PROBLEM There's a reason the Fed always seems to get the timing wrong They don't. It's intentional Rates go up in year 1 and 2. That's the pain nobody talks about on camera Then rates come down in year 3 and 4 - right when the president needs good headlines before re-election Midterm year always lands at the top of that rate cycle The most expensive moment to borrow. The hardest moment to grow The Fed didn't miscalculate. The calendar just exposed them And then there's 2026 New president in year 2. Fed still restrictive. Congress up for grabs Every condition is in place. All three forces active at the same time My target: 6,200 by October That's a 17% decline from current levels History says this move is more likely than not Are you positioned for it? NOTIFS ON!

NoName

66,571 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 BTC UPDATE - THIS IS IMPORTANT 🚨 I called the top at 126k. I had short position from $117k until now That trade is now closed with a massive gain Every altcoin short from the last nine months - also closed This phase of the bear trade is done Here's how i see situation: [ BUYING SPOT ] For the second time since the fall 2025 - I'm buying Bitcoin spot First entry: 63k (No leverage) Everyone who followed my 115k-125k distribution strategy knows how it worked Every day BTC was in that zone, I sold 10% of spot and added shorts Now I'm doing the exact same thing in reverse Every day Bitcoin stays between 54k-64k - I buy 5% of allocated capital Not 10% this time - I want to spread accumulation across a wider range 62k, 58k, 56k, 54k - doesn't matter. As long as we're in this zone, I'm buying 20 days max [ ON SENTIMENT ] This thing really annoys me Six months ago nobody was calling for 40k Right now every account on X has the same target: 40k-50k That's exactly the problem When the entire crowd stands on one side of the boat - the market almost never delivers what they're waiting for I'd rather buy while others are waiting for lower [TECHNICAL ZONE] The weekly MA200 sits right in this region and is being tested from below The top of the 2024 consolidation box aligns here too This isn't just one signal - it's three zones overlapping at the same level [ FRONT-RUNNING THE HERD ] Since I called 50k-40k as the bear market target - the entire X copied it The market knows retail is sitting in cash waiting below 50k Too scared to buy 64k because they've convinced themselves 40k is coming I'm not standing behind the herd begging for the same price I'm front-running them [ ON THE FOUR-YEAR CYCLE ] BULLSHIT! Ask anyone when they plan to buy - September or October Ask why - "four-year cycle" - Bulls waiting - Bears waiting Everyone using the same indicator for the same timing What if the bottom comes three weeks early? Everyone in cash misses it Markets don't reward the majority for memorizing a calendar [ STRUCTURAL SHIFT ] The deeper reason for my change isn't technical - it's structural BlackRock's ETF is fully operational. CLARITY Act could pass August 10 DTCC tokenization pilot is live right now - Microsoft shares, SPY, QQQ, US Treasuries moving on-chain Citadel just deployed $400M into crypto at a $20B valuation The biggest capital in the world is moving in before retail understands what's happening [ S&P 500 ] Every S&P 500 short stays open BTC dropped 52% while S&P made new all-time highs Crypto has already been repriced. Stocks haven't When the correction comes - capital moves from overvalued into undervalued In the era of tokenization and the CLARITY Act - that capital moves into crypto [ FINAL TAKE ] I called 40k-50k. Now I'm changing my view - and I'm not ashamed of it When the entire crowd copies the same target - the market almost never delivers it Six months ago nobody was calling sub-$50k. Today everyone is That's exactly when the target gets taken off the table I'd rather be early and right than late and waiting for a bottom that won't come the way they want
0:44

🚨 BTC UPDATE - THIS IS IMPORTANT 🚨 I called the top at 126k. I had short position from $117k until now That trade is now closed with a massive gain Every altcoin short from the last nine months - also closed This phase of the bear trade is done Here's how i see situation: [ BUYING SPOT ] For the second time since the fall 2025 - I'm buying Bitcoin spot First entry: 63k (No leverage) Everyone who followed my 115k-125k distribution strategy knows how it worked Every day BTC was in that zone, I sold 10% of spot and added shorts Now I'm doing the exact same thing in reverse Every day Bitcoin stays between 54k-64k - I buy 5% of allocated capital Not 10% this time - I want to spread accumulation across a wider range 62k, 58k, 56k, 54k - doesn't matter. As long as we're in this zone, I'm buying 20 days max [ ON SENTIMENT ] This thing really annoys me Six months ago nobody was calling for 40k Right now every account on X has the same target: 40k-50k That's exactly the problem When the entire crowd stands on one side of the boat - the market almost never delivers what they're waiting for I'd rather buy while others are waiting for lower [TECHNICAL ZONE] The weekly MA200 sits right in this region and is being tested from below The top of the 2024 consolidation box aligns here too This isn't just one signal - it's three zones overlapping at the same level [ FRONT-RUNNING THE HERD ] Since I called 50k-40k as the bear market target - the entire X copied it The market knows retail is sitting in cash waiting below 50k Too scared to buy 64k because they've convinced themselves 40k is coming I'm not standing behind the herd begging for the same price I'm front-running them [ ON THE FOUR-YEAR CYCLE ] BULLSHIT! Ask anyone when they plan to buy - September or October Ask why - "four-year cycle" - Bulls waiting - Bears waiting Everyone using the same indicator for the same timing What if the bottom comes three weeks early? Everyone in cash misses it Markets don't reward the majority for memorizing a calendar [ STRUCTURAL SHIFT ] The deeper reason for my change isn't technical - it's structural BlackRock's ETF is fully operational. CLARITY Act could pass August 10 DTCC tokenization pilot is live right now - Microsoft shares, SPY, QQQ, US Treasuries moving on-chain Citadel just deployed $400M into crypto at a $20B valuation The biggest capital in the world is moving in before retail understands what's happening [ S&P 500 ] Every S&P 500 short stays open BTC dropped 52% while S&P made new all-time highs Crypto has already been repriced. Stocks haven't When the correction comes - capital moves from overvalued into undervalued In the era of tokenization and the CLARITY Act - that capital moves into crypto [ FINAL TAKE ] I called 40k-50k. Now I'm changing my view - and I'm not ashamed of it When the entire crowd copies the same target - the market almost never delivers it Six months ago nobody was calling sub-$50k. Today everyone is That's exactly when the target gets taken off the table I'd rather be early and right than late and waiting for a bottom that won't come the way they want

NoName

53,028 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen