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🚗 $TSLA FSD (Supervised) has now surpassed 8.41B miles driven, per Tesla’s latest safety report. That’s one of the largest real world autonomy data sets on earth.

192,983 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

140,963 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten