Ryan Paganetti
@RyanPaganetti • 108,822 subscribers
Super Bowl-winning NFL Coach + Director of Analytics | Former @Eagles @Jaguars @Raiders | Follow for football research and plays that will get banned by the NFL
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This two play sequence on the Eagles final drive was almost certainly mishandled. 1st and 10 at the 34, 25 seconds left and the Jaguars have one timeout. You *must* handle this in a way that you are kicking as time expires. To me, it is an incredible amount of risk to throw the ball, and the Eagles decide to do so *twice*. A field goal from the 34 goes in ~70% of the time. It is reasonable to try to gain some more yards. I think they likely do gain positive yards with 3 downhill runs. You would expect them to have some good "4 minute" gameplan runs against cover 0. Jaguars do show a cover 0 look, which is a great move by Campanile. Eagles decide to throw against it (this is what the Jaguars want), and Jaguars nearly pick it off. Seeing the Eagles are afraid to run against cover 0, Campanile dials it up again. Eagles once again decide to throw, with an outbreaker to Lemon. There should have been some headset communication to go down in bounds on any catch, and I am assuming that did not happen. An outside breaking route design puts the WR in a more challenging spot to pull this off. Jaguars only had 1 timeout, but managed to get 3 clock stoppages in a row based on the Eagles decisions. The pass-pass-run sequence stopped the clock without a timeout used twice and netted the Eagles 4 total yards. This probably increased the FG attempt probability by a few percentage points. I would say that if you do not think you can a few yards on three straight runs, you could even consider tush pushing three times as those never go backwards. If they sold out for the tush push, Jalen can try to hit it off the C gap and probably gains even more yards than a usual sneak. The kick return was a borderline miracle for the Jaguars and you could make a compelling case the Eagles should have kicked into the endzone and played an aggressive sideline defense for the one play from the -35 yard line. But this offensive sequence was multiple self inflicted wounds that did not even require the Jaguars to make an exceptional play.
Ryan Paganetti278,130 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce
The go for 2 down 8 strategy has now been used 53 times by 23 different franchises since 2018. In 2025, teams went for 2 in this situation in the 4th quarter roughly half the time when it came up. Dallas was the largest favorite (9.5) to ever try the strategy. This is an interesting situation because the Cowboys would be more than 50% to win overtime if it reached that point. Their exact odds to win OT can be debated. Combined with Aubrey being a huge weapon for these end game/OT situations, the math towards going for 2 is not as convincing as when you are an underdog.
Ryan Paganetti368,961 görüntüleme • 8 gün önce
Pretty sure the Eagles have not changed their signals in years, the signal by Wicks is the same one they have used in the past for players to do when they didn’t catch a ball. If I was in the booth for Bears, I would see that and tell the head coach to challenge off that.
Ryan Paganetti791,179 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce
Did this obvious Patriots passing tendency help Seattle wreck their offense in the Super Bowl? In 2025, when New England used 11 personnel WITHOUT Mack Hollins on the field, in games he played, they passed on 54 of 56 snaps in normal early down situations. 96.4% Pass. One missing receiver practically told you what was coming. That situation came up six times in the Super Bowl. The first four results: 1st and 10: Sack. 2nd and 13: Quick pressure, dumped into the flat for a loss of two. 2nd and 7: Sack. 1st and 10: Sack. All four possessions ended in punts. None produced another first down after those plays. Watch the clips. Despite these being early downs, Seattle showed virtually no respect for the run. They attacked with aggressive rushes and pressures. I can’t prove Seattle identified this specific tell. But this is exactly the kind of edge Mike Macdonald hunts. I will place the odds he knew at 99%. Multiple people have told me about what he calls the “KGB,” an operation for searching for opponent tendencies and checking his own team for tells. I think Macdonald is a generational defensive play caller. And this operation contributes to that. I’ve run my own “KGB” operation for teams I’ve worked for. We were not a remotely good football team with the Raiders last year, but we used several incredibly strong Josh McDaniels and Patriots tendencies to help beat them in Foxborough in Week 1. Looking back at how the season unfolded, that might have been the biggest upset of the year. Beyond this personnel tell, McDaniels has a number of extremely heavy passing tendencies from shotgun that we were able to take advantage of. There are other glaring tells that I may share at a later date. These details matter. One WR's absence. A 96.4% passing tendency. Three sacks and another loss on six snaps on football’s biggest stage.
Ryan Paganetti915,962 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Inside the disaster sequence by the Jets at the end of regulation: Jets could have and should have called timeout at 1:01 left and the Packers facing 4th and 5 at the +45. By doing so, the Jets force the Packers to make a decision with 1:01 left, which almost certainly would have been to punt. The average starting field position after a punt from that field position is roughly the 12 yard line. A touchback occurs ~16% of the time which would put you at the 20. For simplicity, assume the Jets have the ball from their own 12 with 51 seconds left and a timeout. One key point here is the Packers only had 2 timeouts remaining, which makes a big difference. The Jets could have run the ball on 1st down and seen what they got. If it went nowhere, they would have the ability to take the clock to 0:00 if needed because the Packers could only stop the clock twice. By not calling timeout, the Jets allowed the Packers to run the clock all the way down to 21 seconds before a delay of game. The clock decay helps one team or the other here, and in this case it clearly helps the Packers. Now comes the next clear mistake by the Jets. Once the delay of game occurred, the Jets could have and should have stopped the clock. By not electing to do so, Green Bay was able to run the clock down to 2 seconds to get a free chance at a Hail Mary. The Jets needed to stop the clock at 21 seconds to force the punt and then take it to overtime. Green Bay would not have been able to run that Hail Mary with 21 seconds. The situation was so chaotic I actually think the Packers missed an opportunity here too. Packers could have called timeout with ~8-9 seconds, tried to get the first down on 4th and 10, and if so called timeout and attempted a game winning field goal. The Packers have had a great long yardage pass offense with Love. If they failed, the Packers would have to defend one play from the ~50. Another Packers option is Trey Smack attempting a ~68 yard field goal with 2 seconds left. For some teams that would have clearly been the best option. Ultimately, this game management by the Jets was objectively incorrect in both of these instances, and the fact it sounds like they did not even talk about it on the headset is beyond alarming.
Ryan Paganetti501,113 görüntüleme • 27 gün önce
If Georgia Tech used the entire play clock correctly down the stretch vs Colorado, they would have won the game. On their drive leading by 3 starting with 7:35 left in the game, they snapped the ball far too early on offense several times. In the video below, I compiled all examples from the drive. They could have burned an additional 83 seconds of game clock by doing this correctly. When Colorado took over down 6 with no timeouts, they had 1:40 to work with. If Georgia Tech had been using the whole play clock, they would have left Colorado with 17 seconds needing 75 yards, a nearly impossible task.
Ryan Paganetti715,372 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Regardless of outcome, Bills probably should have used their 2nd and 3rd down plays to drain more clock before their game winning field goal attempt. If you are (rightfully) concerned about Cook fumbles, two sneaks with Josh Allen to avoid losing yards would be preferred. A 45 yard field goal goes in about 78% of the time. This means that 22% of the time after this play the Rams were going to have the ball in a sudden death situation from their own 35 yard line and 1:55 left in overtime. As we saw a few moments earlier, these kicks can be missed. Using 2nd and 3rd down you would have been looking at a missed field goal leaving the Rams with well under a minute.
Ryan Paganetti57,392 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce
Cam Little’s 68 yard official NFL record field goal is in serious jeopardy today from… Cam Little. Last year in Denver, with the altitude, he easily made a 73 yard field goal in warmups. I’ve heard he’s made from 76 before. Watch for the Jaguars getting stopped between their own 45 and 49 yard line for a potential record breaking attempt. Scott Hanson
Ryan Paganetti315,684 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce
Situational management for the Eagles has been a struggle
Ryan Paganetti211,748 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce
How rare was De’Zhaun Stribling’s performance last night? He just became the second NFL receiver in the past decade to catch seven passes in the first 20 minutes of a preseason game. We broke down Stribling, Allar, Mendoza, and all of last night’s standout performances in our newest episode, out now on YouTube. Subscribe below if you’re interested in more analysis like this: All seven of Stribling’s catches below ⬇️
Ryan Paganetti662,646 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
De’Zhaun Stribling’s preseason start is truly unbelievable. He’s the first player in at least 20 years to total 11 catches within the first 20 minutes of two consecutive preseason games. The next closest: • Dez Bryant, 2013 Cowboys: 10 • Demaryius Thomas, 2014 Broncos: 10 • Jeremy Maclin, 2015 Chiefs: 10 Stribling nearly added a 33-yard touchdown, too. He got open behind the defense but couldn’t finish the catch. The 49ers have to be ecstatic about how this is going. All 5 targets from last night below:
Ryan Paganetti578,222 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Jonah Coleman got pulled after 4 first quarter carries and the last two runs speak for themselves (all carries in video below) Sean Payton was quite happy with what he saw in post game quotes Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points was all over him in the pre-draft process as a potential undervalued player Once upon a time, I used to ask staffers to keep tabs on Scott's posts because he would find so many good nuggets that we missed on from the team side. 100% conviction the fantasy points guys have a better grasp for RB importance/talent than some sitting NFL GMs
Ryan Paganetti628,720 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce
Wait, the analytics guy is saying take the points? Almost. *Keep* the points. The Raiders made a 3rd quarter field goal to go up 6 on 4th and 7.5. The Chiefs had a defensive penalty and Las Vegas elected to take the points off and go for it on 4th and 2.5. (exact distance from Next Gen Stats). They failed and ended up losing by 3. When comparing the options of a made field goal vs a go for it attempt with 2.5 yards to go (the extra half yard matters), I have three public models and one non-public model all saying that keeping the points on the board was preferred from a win probability standpoint by a small margin. It is quite rare a team is "too aggressive", but I would say there is data supporting that is true here.
Ryan Paganetti93,110 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce
NIL could have a new meaning in the NFL: National Insert League. I manually charted every snap of the entire 2025 Rams offense, the highest scoring team in the NFL. Insert action was everywhere: motions, alignments, blocks and play action, with both wide receivers and tight ends. Including the playoffs, roughly one third of their under center first and second down plays featured some kind of insert component. Duo accounted for nearly 40% of their run offense, the highest rate in the NFL according to Fantasy Points Data. Many of those runs featured insert blocks. On under center early downs, their runs with insert action produced 5.05 yards per play, a 53.5% success rate and +0.07 EPA per play. But their duo identity created an incredible dilemma for defenses: commit inside to stop it, and risk getting outflanked outside to that same side. Running outside zone toward the three player side of 3x1 formations, the Rams produced 565 yards on 81 carries: 7.0 yards per carry, a 61.7% success rate and +0.23 EPA per play. Watching those runs, what stood out was how often they got the edge of the defense for big gains. The frequency was staggering. Looking through at least a decade of data, I couldn’t find another team remotely close to that effectiveness on those runs. They could do it from 11 or 13 personnel, running both duo and outside zone and presenting the same problem with different personnel on the field. Widen to protect the edge, and they could come right back to duo. React aggressively to the insert action, and they could throw behind you. The insert wasn’t just a wrinkle. It helped tie the interior run, perimeter run and play action game together. My top offensive trend prediction for the 2026 season: more teams building around insert action, pairing duo inside with outside zone to the same side, and tying it together with play action. Examples below:
Ryan Paganetti303,085 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
The Cowboys ugly end game sequence: The 2nd and goal false start dropped their win probability by 10 percent. On the 2nd and goal from the 7 where Dak scrambled for 2 yards, Dallas should have clearly let a few more seconds run off the clock. I would have called timeout at 9 seconds, ensuring there was no scenario the Ravens could get the ball back with time for a play + timeout. Finally, they should have kicked short of the end zone to ensure time went off the clock once they were kicking with 7 seconds. Rough ride home from Rio after that.
Ryan Paganetti116,777 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce
The Raiders are off to an incredible start and I have no doubt that Klint Kubiak will have the team continuing to play great. This sequence by their game management staff very easily could have lost them the game. On 3rd and 7, Justin Herbert gets hit while throwing, and they rule it a fumble that is recovered by the Chargers and brings up 4th and a half yard. Replays showed Herbert with the ball and his arm moving forward, and Gene Steratore noted that this should be an incompletion. The broadcast correctly was very surprised by the lack of challenge. The swing from 4th and 7 vs. 4th and a half yard is enormous here. For some reason, the coach appeared to not get the message to challenge the play. Not challenging likely cost them over 5% win probability. The Raiders then call a timeout, which is inexplicable in this moment, as you should throw the challenge flag if you plan on calling a timeout anyways. To top it off, they come out of the timeout on 4th and a half yard with 12 men on the field and give up a free 1st down. This simply cannot happen, someone should see it upstairs and communicate that immediately. The penalty mistake cost them another 20% in win probability! There will be very few game management sequences all year that decrease a team's chance of winning so much. Some things to iron out going forward.
Ryan Paganetti140,856 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce
If I was trying to lose, I would line up in shotgun with about 2 inches to go on a 3rd down. The fumbled snap off the motion is just a cherry on top. 2 inches. 2 downs to get it. Maybe folding the Chargers franchise like the 1926 Racine Tornadoes is not the worst idea.
Ryan Paganetti115,167 görüntüleme • 26 gün önce
