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🌧️WEEKEND RAIN WILL BE AN ANNOYANCE… CONCERNED IT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO SUNDAY Model trends now develop a low near Atlantic City Sunday morning, slowing the clearing line and keeping rain over NYC longer. If this holds, we may lose much of the dry time Sunday. Outside of NW...

10,444 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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THIS WEEKEND'S STORM FEATURES MANY TWISTS AND TURNS.. MY 1ST CALL SNOWFALL MAP... I feel strongly enough to put out a first look at the weekend storm (Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning) as the models have essentially held on to a consistent trend in the vort max and low development going into Saturday afternoon. Two area's that remain a stronger confidence level for me is the area in pink where the mode of precip is pure snow and gray area where mixing will be a big factor during the middle of the event. When you run the overall precip numbers and thermals you arrive in this ball park (outlined below) The twists and turns come into play once we see the vort max rotate north and the interaction between the energy and coastal low by Saturday night. This is why you see such a massive range (6-16") in the pink area as this could either go into a more moderate snow event working off 10:1-11:1 ratios and ending quickly OR we see a slower process with more moisture working northbound. The area in white should see at least 4" with a 6" maximum. I don't see this area going much higher given all that is on the table and how climatology goes. That said, this is also an area I could easily extend into #Baltimore and #DC faster than #Philadelphia and #NYC given wind vectors and cold air advancement. A personal aside, as a TV meteorologist and private sector forecaster I don't like to over-promise and under deliver. That costs $$ and bothers people. That being said, I will not dilute a forecast to hedge it as playing conservative holds more danger to public perception. So understanding my position should hopefully squash any bias you may feel I have :) Here's my initial feeling as we stand here at 6pm on 1/2/24 for a forecast for the weekend! MORE LATER..

Mike Masco

237,688 次观看 • 2 年前

Monday, December 18, 2023, 1:17 PM, PDT: 545 DM Low pressure is starting to develop 300 miles off the coast of Oregon. This is the start of the formation of the secondary low, which will emerge and have a southward trajectory. This low-pressure system will move into Southern California on Thursday and Thursday night. As of right now, intensive rapid development is expected within the next 24-30 hours over the Central Pacific. This system will tap into subtropical moisture south of the Hawaiian Islands in the next 32 hours, bringing copious amounts of rain to the southern California region. There is an increasingly elevated chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. The trajectory and positioning of solution models have the system going close to Point Conception early Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will provide the perfect setup for rainfall from Santa Barbara down to San Diego. If the main low pressure gets within about 65 to 130 miles of the Channel Islands, rainfall totals will increase across Ventura County, LA County, Orange County, and San Diego County. Rainfall totals are still expected to be between 0.80 to 2.0 inches. However, if thunderstorms do develop, rainfall totals of 1.8 to 4.0 inches seem justified with this particular system. More updates will continue as the system nears our region. The first system is moving into parts of Southern California this afternoon, which will moisten up the atmosphere and prepare us for the second system. There is no offshore flow at all, which is a good sign for further storm development as the lower levels of the atmosphere moisten up. #cutofflow #ElNino #Californiastorms

Jason D Farhang

13,391 次观看 • 2 年前

Tuesday, April 14, 2026 at 6:52 AM: What you have witnessed yesterday and this past weekend across California and parts of Southern California is the birth pains of an El Niño development and the ongoing escalation the warming of the Pacific torrential rains came through the San Fernando Valley with such strong, thunderstorms that it caused significant flooding in the Sherman Oaks, Universal City area around 1:05 PM - 1:35 PM yesterday on April 13, 2026. This powerful storm packed winds gusts of over 50 mph and it’s a true testament that we are no longer in a pattern that brings rain in just winter time but is now extending into April and May and beyond with that said we have another storm on the heels that will be arriving very quickly on April 21 - 27, 2026. The next storm will also bring more heavy rain, thunder, and lightning, and yes, more snowfall to the local mountains. As the Pacific continues to warm, the weather will become more drastic with extreme heat waves and more unusual severe rain events for California. This situation will get quite scary if it continues to verify by the end of October and November with the super El Niño development and the atmosphere connecting something that we’ve not seen since 1982, 1997/ 1998. The main Marshall Islands low axis is already gearing up for this major event this year which you’ve seen an example already. The flooding in the Hawaiian islands. Typhoon Sinlaku has now hit the Guam region with a category five status this early in April all due to the warming of the Pacific and the emergence of El Niño. #CAwx

Jason D Farhang

28,670 次观看 • 3 个月前

#HudsonValley: flooding, wind damage likely tonight, may cause school delays/closings on Wednesday 😵‍💫 Before the rain, 1-3 inches of wet snow in Sullivan and western Ulster County between noon - 4:00 pm may cause early dismissals or lead to the cancellation of after-school activities. Elsewhere across the mid-Hudson Valley, any wet snow that falls this afternoon is unlikely to stick to paved surfaces. After 4:00 pm, the main precipitation type will be rain, and it’s expected to become heavy in the evening. The forecast for Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning is a tumultuous one: - Periods of heavy rain and maybe even a thunderstorm between 6:00 pm - 3:00 am, with rainfall amounts ranging from 2-4 inches (a month’s worth or more) - Rapid snow melt, especially when the temperature reaches the low-to-mid 50s after midnight - Strong-to-damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph between 6:00 pm - 3:00 am Possible impacts include: - Ponding of water and flooding on streets, particularly in urban and low-lying areas - Flooding of rivers, creeks, and streams, some of which may rise out of their banks - Scattered-to-widespread power outages and downed tree branches; the combination of sodden grounds and strong winds may cause some trees to topple If you live in a flood prone location, expect flooding tonight — take extra steps to protect your property. Some school delays and/or closings will likely occur on Wednesday because of this storm, although it isn’t possible to pinpoint exactly which towns will experience the worst impacts. The December 18th storm is comparable to this storm, although the flooding and wind damage chance looks higher this time around. Although the worst of the weather will be over by daybreak Wednesday, strong wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected on Wednesday afternoon, affecting cleanup efforts. Another significant rain and wind storm is likely on Friday night.

Ben Noll

39,323 次观看 • 2 年前