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We're importing less, and not producing more. Here's 3 ways this could end: 1. This supply-demand imbalance creates shortages and empty shelves 2. Price rise to equate demand and supply, sparking inflation 3. A recession decreases demand (so shortages never emerge)

Justin Wolfers

357,046 subscribers

47,912 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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8 条评论

Speaking Carbon 的头像

Speaking Carbon1 年前

They are eating the cats. Eating the dogs. Taking away the toys.

Investors.com 的头像

Investors.com2 年前

Retail investors: Tired of spending hours researching stocks just to find one good trade?

RET 的头像

RET1 年前

Because combination of all three

Punderball8 的头像

Punderball81 年前

☹️

Douglas Ritz 的头像

Douglas Ritz1 年前

Contrary to popular belief, the tariffs will be deflationary giving the Fed room to cut rates to help with the rising unemployment rate.

TXfem 的头像

TXfem1 年前

2and 3

Tammy Burger 的头像

Tammy Burger1 年前

All bad news!! 😤

CapitolHillAccess.com 的头像

CapitolHillAccess.com1 年前

So, this isn't gonna be so good, eh?

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#Exclusive || Impact of War on Economy One, you have a supply shock. Supply has gone down. So, either you voluntarily cut down demand and let supply and demand adjust themselves without much of a price rise, or, if demand is not adjusted, prices will go up and do the needful: Dr. Ashok Kumar Lahiri #NewsToday | Rajdeep Sardesai

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9/ Central Banks & Silver Unlike gold, central banks don’t hold silver reserves. Silver supply is tight, and demand is rising. This imbalance could lead to massive price spikes.

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3 minutes of Ben Bernanke saying that 2021-2023 inflation was driven by supply-side shocks, not demand. "The inflation was caused, pretty much, by the supply side. […] those of us who thought this was a supply-side shock said, ‘no, it’ll be a pretty benign disinflation.’" /1

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The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

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