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What are current economic models missing about AGI? How would we know if we were approaching explosive growth? Stanford economist Phil Trammell has been rigorously thinking about the intersection of economic theory and AI (incl. AGI) for over five years, long before the recent surge of interest in large...

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Epoch AI

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Epoch AI

178,703 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

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Altman says that if you asked for a definition of AGI five years ago based on software’s cognitive abilities, today’s models would already surpass it. He expects people to increasingly agree we've reached AGI—even as the goalposts move. What matters more now is economic usefulness: these models boost productivity and can already do meaningful work.

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19,575 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

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260,187 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

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Epoch AI

152,591 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

It was an honour to host the first ever public dialogue between David Deutsch (David Deutsch) and Steven Pinker (Steven Pinker). They are longstanding admirers of each other's work. I view Steve's defence of the Enlightenment as more empirical, whereas David's is built more on first principles. But beyond their shared rational optimism, what else do they agree – or disagree – about? Topics we discuss are well captured by the timestamps below. Links to YouTube, transcript, Apple Podcasts, & Spotify in tweet below. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:00) - Introduction (0:03:09) - Is AGI even possible? (0:10:17) - Scientific method will constrain runaway superintelligence (0:11:56) - Does AGI need agency to be creative? (0:28:31) - Will AGIs be sentient? (0:37:06) - AGI & AI safety (0:47:44) - P(doom) & subjective probabilities (0:53:21) - Prediction markets (1:01:43) - Universal explainers & The Language Instinct (1:04:43) - Universal explainers & heritability of behavioural traits (1:27:59) - Differential technological development (1:36:09) - What explains the Great Stagnation? (1:46:13) - Should presumed physical limits to growth make us pessimistic?
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It was an honour to host the first ever public dialogue between David Deutsch (David Deutsch) and Steven Pinker (Steven Pinker). They are longstanding admirers of each other's work. I view Steve's defence of the Enlightenment as more empirical, whereas David's is built more on first principles. But beyond their shared rational optimism, what else do they agree – or disagree – about? Topics we discuss are well captured by the timestamps below. Links to YouTube, transcript, Apple Podcasts, & Spotify in tweet below. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:00) - Introduction (0:03:09) - Is AGI even possible? (0:10:17) - Scientific method will constrain runaway superintelligence (0:11:56) - Does AGI need agency to be creative? (0:28:31) - Will AGIs be sentient? (0:37:06) - AGI & AI safety (0:47:44) - P(doom) & subjective probabilities (0:53:21) - Prediction markets (1:01:43) - Universal explainers & The Language Instinct (1:04:43) - Universal explainers & heritability of behavioural traits (1:27:59) - Differential technological development (1:36:09) - What explains the Great Stagnation? (1:46:13) - Should presumed physical limits to growth make us pessimistic?

Joseph Noel Walker

111,747 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss why the Fed did not cut interest rates, how to think about inflation, Israel & Iran, how big bitcoin can get, AI, and Jordi's current market outlook. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - How much will bitcoin be worth? 10:36 - Economic data and the Fed’s decision to not cut rates 19:33 - Legislation and the rise of stablecoins 31:24 - The power of AI and Perplexity 39:25 - Navigating Israel and Iran conflict 46:43 - Market outlook
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I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss why the Fed did not cut interest rates, how to think about inflation, Israel & Iran, how big bitcoin can get, AI, and Jordi's current market outlook. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:15 - How much will bitcoin be worth? 10:36 - Economic data and the Fed’s decision to not cut rates 19:33 - Legislation and the rise of stablecoins 31:24 - The power of AI and Perplexity 39:25 - Navigating Israel and Iran conflict 46:43 - Market outlook

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

44,316 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

New episode Much fun chatting with Laura 🌲 ⛰️! We discuss: - personal identity, and what, exactly, we want to preserve - what a “more humane transhumanism” might look like - scientific awe - seeing inside the cell - the antimemetic qualities of reversible cryopreservation - why cryopreservation might be the most leveraged problem in longevity - and much, much more Links below. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:00) - Introduction. (0:01:17) - Personal identity: what, exactly, do we want to preserve? (0:05:20) - How has Laura's emotional relation to longevity evolved? (0:10:32) - Transhumanism: what do current visions lack? (0:17:34) - The sociopolitical implications of longevity. (0:29:29) - Awe in scientific discovery. (0:37:46) - Embodied thought-experiments, & seeing inside the cell. (0:42:05) - Visualising cells to think about cryopreservation. (0:46:08) - Are some fields / types of science more amenable to embodied thinking? (0:47:13) - Scientific mentorship. (0:55:26) - Longevity drug development. (0:57:46) - Laura's current takes on theories of ageing. (1:01:17) - Key regulatory bottlenecks to longevity drugs. (1:02:40) - Patterns among The Longevity Fund's most successful investments. (1:05:18) - Laura's questions about evolution and natural selection. (1:08:57) - Why work on cryopreservation?
1:16:46

New episode Much fun chatting with Laura 🌲 ⛰️! We discuss: - personal identity, and what, exactly, we want to preserve - what a “more humane transhumanism” might look like - scientific awe - seeing inside the cell - the antimemetic qualities of reversible cryopreservation - why cryopreservation might be the most leveraged problem in longevity - and much, much more Links below. Enjoy! Timestamps: (0:00:00) - Introduction. (0:01:17) - Personal identity: what, exactly, do we want to preserve? (0:05:20) - How has Laura's emotional relation to longevity evolved? (0:10:32) - Transhumanism: what do current visions lack? (0:17:34) - The sociopolitical implications of longevity. (0:29:29) - Awe in scientific discovery. (0:37:46) - Embodied thought-experiments, & seeing inside the cell. (0:42:05) - Visualising cells to think about cryopreservation. (0:46:08) - Are some fields / types of science more amenable to embodied thinking? (0:47:13) - Scientific mentorship. (0:55:26) - Longevity drug development. (0:57:46) - Laura's current takes on theories of ageing. (1:01:17) - Key regulatory bottlenecks to longevity drugs. (1:02:40) - Patterns among The Longevity Fund's most successful investments. (1:05:18) - Laura's questions about evolution and natural selection. (1:08:57) - Why work on cryopreservation?

Joseph Noel Walker

17,580 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss 2025 performance, outlook for 2026, the rapid impact of artificial intelligence on productivity / GDP / economic growth, bitcoin's rise or fall, and how individuals can use AI tools to create more value in their work and lives. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:55 - 2025 market recap and biggest lessons 13:53 - 2026 outlook: can GDP growth accelerate? 20:36 - 2026 asset outlook: stocks, commodities, crypto 27:51 - How to using AI to make better decisions and investing ideas 32:42 - Silvia tax/parenting use cases and better portfolio construction with AI 39:47 - Karpathy’s tweet: AI is changing programming 48:23 - Building apps and tools with AI and importance of curiosity + persistence 1:00:02 - 2026 prediction: task-specific AI agents 1:04:12 - Health, longevity, and Jordi’s new Substack
1:07:33

I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss 2025 performance, outlook for 2026, the rapid impact of artificial intelligence on productivity / GDP / economic growth, bitcoin's rise or fall, and how individuals can use AI tools to create more value in their work and lives. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:55 - 2025 market recap and biggest lessons 13:53 - 2026 outlook: can GDP growth accelerate? 20:36 - 2026 asset outlook: stocks, commodities, crypto 27:51 - How to using AI to make better decisions and investing ideas 32:42 - Silvia tax/parenting use cases and better portfolio construction with AI 39:47 - Karpathy’s tweet: AI is changing programming 48:23 - Building apps and tools with AI and importance of curiosity + persistence 1:00:02 - 2026 prediction: task-specific AI agents 1:04:12 - Health, longevity, and Jordi’s new Substack

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

40,283 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

The Fed didn't cut last week and the tariff deadline of April 2nd is fast approaching — lots of uncertainty in markets until then. I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss the Fed’s interest rate decision, stock market outlook, Tesla, AI, Nvidia, and how investors are approaching April 2nd. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:52 - Should the Fed have cut rates? 3:30 - Evaluating the stock market right now 7:23 - Evaluating Tesla right now 10:32 - Economic data uncertainty 13:48 - How investors are approaching April 2 21:10 - Scott Bessent on All-In podcast 26:50 - AI & Nvidia 34:21 - The future of AI
39:59

The Fed didn't cut last week and the tariff deadline of April 2nd is fast approaching — lots of uncertainty in markets until then. I sat down with Jordi Visser to discuss the Fed’s interest rate decision, stock market outlook, Tesla, AI, Nvidia, and how investors are approaching April 2nd. Enjoy! YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 0:52 - Should the Fed have cut rates? 3:30 - Evaluating the stock market right now 7:23 - Evaluating Tesla right now 10:32 - Economic data uncertainty 13:48 - How investors are approaching April 2 21:10 - Scott Bessent on All-In podcast 26:50 - AI & Nvidia 34:21 - The future of AI

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

89,198 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr