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Why do smart people make bad decisions? Charlie Munger discovered 25 tendencies sabotaging your judgment right now. Here they are: 1. Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency 2. Liking/Loving Tendency 3. Disliking/Hating Tendency 4. Doubt-Avoidance Tendency 5. Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency 6. Curiosity Tendency 7. Kantian Fairness Tendency 8. Envy/Jealousy Tendency 9....

676,030 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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The Far Left and Far Right are both conspiracy theory driven, but are opposites. —— The Far Left are what I call “God-followers”: The Far Left tends to believe great GOODNESS in the world is only due to the actions of a centralized cabal — the “God Cabal” — intentionally pushing goodness on the world through smart top-down policies and interventions. In the absence of these policies, the world would mostly be bad. Free markets and free expression, each which works via decentralized mechanisms, are bad, and any good coming from them is due to the policies of the God Cabal. For Covid, the good that occurred was due to their interventions. In conflicts between strong and weak, while the world is by and large bad (outside of the God Cabal), the least bad are those who are weak, with the least agency. These are the “victims” that the Far Left sides with. For 9/11 the weak were the Islamists, and so the U.S. must have deserved it. For 10/7, the weak were again the Islamists, and so Israel deserved it. —— The Far-Right are what I call “Demon-Battlers”: The Far Right, on the other hand, tends to believe great BADNESS in the world is only due to the actions of a centralized cabal — the “Demon Cabal” — intentionally pushing evil on the world through sophisticated top-down subversive manipulation. In the absence of these evil influences, the world would mostly be good. Truly free markets and free expression, each which works via decentralized mechanisms, are good, and any bad coming from them is due to the manipulations of the Demon Cabal (which does happen a lot). For Covid, the bad that occurred was because the Demon Cabal engineered the whole thing. Not just the interventions, but the emergency itself, the virus (if there even are viruses), etc. And it was engineered so as to do a Great Reset, put chips in us, depopulate, etc. In conflicts between strong and weak, while the world is by and large good, the least good are those who are strong, with the most agency. These are the oppressors that are enjoined with or being manipulated by the Demon Cabal. For 9/11 the strong was the U.S., which itself — controlled by the Demon Cabal — brought the towers down. For 10/7 the strong was Israel, which itself massacred Israeli’s civilians (or perhaps there wasn’t a massacre at all), under the influence of the Demon Cabal. Point here is that we tend to characterize “Left” and “Right” differently in different contexts. Question is, what more general characterization might explain all the associations? For the Left, it has to explain not just socialism and equality of outcome, but, for example, Covid interventions, and siding with radical Islam in 9/11 and 10/7. For the Right, it has to explain not just support for capitalism but, among many things, the *very* far Right tendency to be basically against capitalism, the Plandemic-ers, and believing 9/11 and 10/7 were psyops. The (non-far) Left has a general tendency to see good in the world coming from well-intentioned centralized policies, and bad coming from too much decentralization and freedom. The (non-far) Right has a general tendency to see bad in the world coming from well-intentioned centralized policies, and good coming from decentralization and freedom. Both are “reasonable,” but the “far” versions of each become entirely crazy and dangerous.

Mark Changizi

52,383 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Charlie Munger spent 50 years studying why intelligent people make catastrophically stupid decisions. It is the most useful thing I have ever watched: 1. Incentives are more powerful than anyone thinks. Munger says he has been in the top 5% of his age cohort his entire life in understanding the power of incentives and he has still underestimated it every single year. Federal Express could not get their night shift to work efficiently until someone realized they were paying by the hour. They switched to paying by the shift. The problem disappeared immediately. 2. People rationalise terrible behavior when their incentives point that way, and they do not even know they are doing it. A doctor in Nebraska was removing perfectly healthy gallbladders for years. When Munger asked an old colleague whether the doctor knew he was harming patients, the answer was no. he genuinely believed the gallbladder was the source of all medical evil and that removing it was an act of love. That is incentive-caused bias at its most extreme. 3. Psychological denial is real, and it is not just for weak people. A family friend's son flew off a carrier in the North Atlantic and never came back. His mother, a completely sane woman, simply never believed he was dead. Reality was too painful, so she distorted it until it was bearable. Munger says we all do this to some extent, and it causes terrible problems. 4. Consistency and commitment tendency are one of the most powerful forces in the human mind. Once you have stated a position publicly, you are psychologically locked into it. Max Planck said the really important new physics was never accepted by the old guard. A new guard came along that was less brain blocked by its previous conclusions. If this happened to the deans of physics, Munger says, imagine what it does to ordinary people. 5. The Chinese brainwashing system used on prisoners of war worked better than torture. They did not start with big demands. They maneuvered people into making tiny little commitments and declarations and slowly built from there. The same mechanism operates in every cult, every sales system, and every ideology that gets deeply embedded in people's heads. 6. Pavlovian association shapes buying behavior at a level most people never consciously process. Munger estimates three quarters of all advertising works on pure Pavlov. Coca-Cola does not want to be associated with funerals. They want to be associated with the Olympics, wonderful music, heroics. The association itself changes how people feel about the product at a subconscious level. Raising the price of a product can actually increase its market share because price and quality are associated in the human mind, and people use price as a signal of value. 7. Persian messenger syndrome is alive and running every major organization. The Persians killed the messenger who brought bad news. Bill Paley in his last 20 years, did not hear one thing he did not want to hear. everyone around him knew bringing bad news was dangerous. The result was that one of the most powerful men in media made terrible decisions for two decades because reality never reached him. 8. Social proof causes otherwise intelligent people to follow each other off cliffs. When one oil company bought a fertilizer company in the 1970s, practically every other major oil company rushed out and did the same. There was no rational reason for oil companies to own fertilizer companies. But if Exxon was doing it, it was good enough for Mobil. Every single acquisition was a disaster. 9. The efficient market theory persisted in academia for decades despite Berkshire Hathaway existing as a living contradiction. One economist kept adding sigmas to explain away the anomaly. two sigma, then three, then four, eventually six sigma. Munger's observation: It is better to add a sigma than change a theory just because the evidence comes in differently. That economist later went into money management himself and sank like a stone. 10. Contrast bias warps perception constantly and invisibly. Put your hand in hot water, then room temperature water. It feels cold. Put your hand in cold water, then room temperature water. It feels hot. same bucket. The human sensory apparatus has no absolute scale, only a contrast scale. Real estate agents exploit this deliberately. They show you two overpriced, awful houses first, then take you to a merely overpriced house, and it feels like a bargain. 11. The frog in slowly heating water is the business version of contrast bias. If something bad comes to you in small pieces, you are likely to miss it entirely. Munger says he has known many high-powered brilliant businessmen who were destroyed this way. not because they were stupid but because each incremental change was too small to trigger alarm. The contrast was never large enough to notice. 12. Authority bias is so powerful it can make trained professionals watch a plane crash. In flight simulator experiments, when the pilot, the authority figure, does something that any trained co-pilot knows will crash the plane, 25% of the time, the co-pilot sits there and lets it crash anyway. They have been trained to know better. The authority relationship overrides the training. 13. Deprivation super reaction syndrome explains why people go insane over small losses. Munger's neighbor had a 180 degree view of the harbor. the neighbor put in a pine tree about 3 feet high that turned it into a 179 and three-quarter degree view. They had a blood feud that went on for years. The New Coke disaster is the corporate version. Coca-Cola told customers they were changing a flavor and triggered a deprival super reaction so powerful that Pepsi was weeks away from releasing old Coke in a Pepsi bottle. smart engineers. brilliant lawyers. armies of psychologists. All missed it. 14. Envy and jealousy are far more powerful than greed and almost entirely absent from psychology textbooks. Munger says Warren Buffett has said half a dozen times that it is not greed that drives the world but envy. In a thousand-page psychology textbook, the index entry for envy and jealousy is blank. One of the most powerful forces in human behavior and academia essentially ignores it. 15. Gambling addiction is not explained by variable reinforcement alone. Skinner thought he had fully explained gambling by showing that variable reward schedules pound in behavior more powerfully than fixed ones. But the people who design modern slot machines know things Skinner did not. Lotteries where you pick your own number get far more play than lotteries where the number is assigned to you. People who commit to a number believe it has more validity because they chose it. Near misses on slot machines trigger deprival super reaction syndrome. It is four or five psychological tendencies working together, not one. 16. The most dangerous situations are when multiple psychological tendencies combine toward the same end at once. Munger calls this the lollapalooza effect. Tupperware parties use four or five tendencies simultaneously. Moonie conversion methods combine multiple tendencies and work extraordinarily well. alcoholics anonymous achieves a 50% no drinking rate when everything else fails because it also combines multiple tendencies toward a constructive end. The Milgram experiment is not just about obedience. it involves authority bias, consistency and commitment tendency, and contrast effects all working together. That combination turns human brains into mush. 17. Boards of directors are structurally designed to fail as corrective mechanisms. The top executive is the authority figure. He is doing something questionable. You look around, and nobody else is objecting, which is social proof that it is fine. He flies you around in the corporate jet and raises your director fees every year, which triggers reciprocation tendency. Munger's rule: boards only act when the behavior gets so bad it starts making them look foolish or threatens legal liability. That is the only forcing function that reliably works. 18. John Goodfriend of Salomon Brothers destroyed his career and reputation because he did not fire a trusted employee who had lied to the government. Every psychological tendency pointed toward keeping the man. He was a close colleague. His wife was known. He was part of a group that had made over a billion dollars for the firm. He said he had never done it before and would never do it again. Goodfriend looked into his eyes and believed him. The man did it again. The lesson: everyone who gets caught embezzling says they have never done it before and will never do it again. That is what they all say. 19. Darwin avoided confirmation bias by deliberately seeking out disconfirming evidence. Munger says Darwin was not especially smart by ordinary standards of human acuity. Yet he is buried in Westminster Abbey. Munger studied how Darwin worked and realized he had psychological tricks worth learning. Darwin always paid extra attention to evidence that contradicted his theories. Munger started doing the same and credits it as one of the most important intellectual habits of his life. 20. Why is the most important word in communication? Carl Braun designed oil refineries with spectacular skill, and you got fired in his company if you wrote a communication without explaining why. not just who, what, where, and when, but why. Braun knew that in a complex system where things can blow up, a communication system that always explains the reason behind an instruction works dramatically better than one that does not. Forstein, the general counsel of Salomon, told Goodfriend on multiple occasions that he had to report the employee's misconduct. He explained it was the right thing to do. He never explained what would happen to Goodfriend personally if he did not. he failed to use the most powerful tool of persuasion. Goodfriend ignored him. When Goodfriend went down, Forstein went with him.

Jaynit

768,085 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Since the first cell of life had a tendency towards self-preservation, life as a whole, including human life, inherited this trait. However, over time, people realized that strict biological rules were insufficient for self-preservation, and they began to incorporate softer, more humane means. They further recognized that it's not just about mere survival, but about living a dignified and meaningful existence. Yes, we understand this well today, but we are moving too slowly in this direction. We must deeply realize that we are now at a different level of life's complexity, and without a humane and exalted way of life, we will not achieve not only a meaningful and prosperous life but even simple self-preservation. : The author traces life’s self-preservation instinct from its first cell to humanity, noting that people recognized biological rules alone were insufficient, embracing humane means for survival. They realized life demands dignity and meaning beyond mere existence. Though understood today, progress toward this ideal is slow. Humanity’s advanced complexity requires a humane, exalted lifestyle to achieve not only meaningful prosperity but also basic self-preservation. This perspective highlights the urgency of elevating existence through compassion and purpose. It warns that neglecting this risks both fulfillment and survival. The call is for a profound commitment to a dignified life, aligning with life’s evolved intricacy to ensure a thriving future.

Zafar Mirzo | Quotes

653,827 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Hakainde's neo-colonial administration involved in corruption. Mundubile explains in the video below... Every Zambian citizen should pay attention to this sensitisation aimed at broadening the definition of corruption. Hakainde Hichilema's policies consistently prioritise private capital over public interest. Mundubile provides an example of $2.5 billion stolen by a mining company but removed out of court and forgiven by Hichilema's administration, as he pursues those Zambians owning flats and cars - and goes to the international community with a bowl in hand to beg for $1.3 billion. It is likely these people look at us as terrible fools, no wonder a black man including themselves with money is never respected by anyone including their friends, white capital, they know they are sellouts! They give us a bad name these misleaders. Another incidence was when Hichilema's neo-colonial administration instructed ZRA to forgive $1 billion and only allow instead $25 million paid in taxes. Instead of addressing these issues, they focus on pursuing individuals with flats and cars. Mundubile talks about foreigners borrowing money from Zambia to construct our roads and then collecting repayments from us over 25 years - he calls it an insult to our collective intelligence. Mundubile points out Hichilema's administration's tendency to bypass parliamentary procedures to favour private capital, disregarding the law. Undoubtedly, Hakainde's administration demonstrates a neo-colonial approach by favouring private foreign capital "preferably white" at the expense of Zambia's public interest.

Chonya

15,744 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Graham Hancock argues that psychedelics and shamanism are the hidden foundation of every civilization and that Ayahuasca delivers a raw moral reckoning most people aren’t ready for. “All civilizations, including ours, although we may deny it, all of them emerged from shamanism. Shamanism is the essence of the human adventure.” “Psychedelics are the most efficient way to enter the altered state of consciousness.” “Ayahuasca is a very clever technology. The Ayahuasca brew contains DMT… The Ayahuasca vine contains a chemical that shuts that enzyme down and allows the DMT to be absorbed orally producing an experience that can last for hours.” “With experienced use of Ayahuasca, one of the very common reports is this moral dimension that you are presented with your own life… with the pain that you may have caused to others. And suddenly that pain that you caused to another person… You suddenly get it from their point of view. You feel the agony that your words caused that person.” “You suddenly see what you are. You can’t go back into your own past and change negative and useless and pointless things that you did… but you can avoid repeating them in the future.” “It’s helped me to come to terms with my tendency to swift anger… I’ve become gentler and softer. Not gentle enough, maybe. It’s a journey. It’s not an overnight transformation. Not a magic pill.” “The main work with Ayahuasca comes after the medicine. The main work comes with what you do with the experience, how you integrate it into your life.”

Defiant Ghost

22,845 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

At a show on his Solo Tour, John Mayer confessed: “I wait for most things to be over. I wait for this to be over to do the next thing and the next thing and the next thing and the next thing...” To counter this tendency, he implemented a rule. “Because I’ve realized, he said, “Everything you love and hate leaves at the same speed: Done. Done. Done. The thing you hate that you have to do tomorrow will be over before you know it, and the thing you're looking forward to tomorrow will be over before you know it.” “So I have a new rule in my life,” Mayer said, “and the rule is: Never wish for less time. Waiting for things to be over is just wishing for less time. Waiting for this to be over to get to the next thing—that's just wishing for less time.” “So wherever you go, just make a home right there and do that thing…Wherever you are, go, 'this is where it's all at right now.' I’ve been having the time of my life because I figured that out…” Takeaway 1: John's realization—that “everything you love and hate leaves at the same speed”—made me think of something that Dr. Anna Lembke writes about in her book Dopamine Nation: “One of the most remarkable neuroscientific findings in the past century is that the brain processes pleasure and pain in the same place. Further, pleasure and pain work like opposite sides of a balance.” “And one of the overriding rules governing this balance,” she said, “is that it wants to stay level…With any deviation from neutrality, the brain will work very hard to restore a level balance—what scientists call ‘homeostasis.’ … With any stimulus to one side, there will be a tip of an equal and opposite amount to the other side.” Pain and pleasure, good days and bad days, the things you're dreading and the things you're looking forward to—everything leaves at the same speed. Takeaway 2: The brain’s tendency to think about the next thing is called “prospection.” “Our brains were made for nexting,” the psychologist Daniel Gilbert writes in a chapter titled “Prospection” in his book Stumbling On Happiness. “When researchers count the items that float along in the average person’s stream of consciousness, they find that about 12 percent of our daily thoughts are about the future.” In other words, the average person spends 1 out of every 8 hours thinking about the next thing, “which is to say…each of us is a part-time resident of tomorrow.” We are constantly nexting, Gilbert explains, because of “the illusion of foresight”—the illusion that “prospection can provide pleasure and prevent pain.” The reality is that “the future is fundamentally different than it appears through the prospectiscope.” The reality is that (whether through the prospectiscope or in the present) everything—pain and pleasure, the things you're dreading and the things you're looking forward to—leaves at the same speed. - - - “So wherever you go, just make a home right there and do that thing…Wherever you are, go, 'this is where it's all at right now.' ... I’ve been having the time of my life because I figured that out...” — John Mayer Follow Billy Oppenheimer for more content like this!

Billy Oppenheimer

3,006,630 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Hypocrisy: Influential global leaders flock to WEF by private jet 'These are the people telling you to reduce your carbon footprint,' said Ezra Levant. The Rebel News team is on the ground in Davos, Switzerland as this year's World Economic Forum (WEF) officially gets underway. Rebel News CEO Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 travelled to a nearby private airport to highlight WEF attendees' tendency to not always practice what they preach. While the influential global leaders tell the masses to do everything they can to reduce their carbon footprints, the wealthy and powerful continue to travel by private jet. Speaking about some of the VVIPs attending the event, Levant said, "Let me tell you, they don't bother with going on to turn-ey, car-sick Swiss Alps roads, they fly private jets to this private airstrip about an hour and 15 minutes away from Davos." "And then many of them take a helicopter from here for that last leg of the journey. God forbid they share the highway with the peasants." Levant added, "They'll dine on the finest Wagyu steaks and Kobe beef while telling you to 'eat ze bugs.'" Discussing a conversation he had with a staff member at the private airport, Levant said, "One of the airport staff came up to me and just chatted with me and said that during the WEF week they get 150 flights a day of private jets through this airport alone." For all of our on-the-ground reporting from Davos and to support our independent journalism, check in daily at

Rebel News

174,024 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🇷🇺 The Root of the Russian Malignancy The problem with Russia did not begin with Putin. Russians have always been like this mentally. Russians have always hated others; Russia has always been a country of lies and aggression, and Russia loves to kill, masking it as grand missions. Historians like Richard Pipes and Alain Besançon have long argued that the nature of Russian autocracy—whether under the Tsars, the Soviets, or the current regime—is predicated on the total erasure of the individual in favor of the State. This creates a psychological environment where "the other" is inherently seen as a threat to the messianic, expansionist project of the "Empire." As the philosopher Nikolai Berdyaev noted in his analysis of the "Russian soul," there is a recurring tendency to oscillate between extreme nihilism and extreme religious-political expansionism. The "mission" provides the moral anesthesia necessary to commit atrocities; by framing the destruction of neighbors as a "holy" or "civilizational" duty, the perpetrator absolves themselves of individual guilt. When a society consistently defines its identity through the negation and subjugation of its neighbors, it becomes trapped in a perpetual cycle of violence. As the philosopher Karl Popper warned in The Open Society and Its Enemies, closed societies built on myth and aggressive ideology are inherently incapable of peaceful coexistence until they are forced to confront the reality of their own moral bankruptcy. The question remains, can Russia be cured? The situation here is not at all the same as with Nazism in Flight 3, because Nazism there arose in one historical period and disappeared within one generation, while in Russia the disease has been present for centuries - from the very beginning of the founding of Russia by a Ukrainian...

Devana 🇺🇦

30,936 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Historian, academic and author Tarik Cyril Amar on Nationalism, Nazi Imagery, and Ethnic Cleansing Apologia in Early 2000s Lviv Tarik lived in Lviv from 2001 on & off for five years. He speaks fluent Russian and Ukrainian, and is an eyewitness expert who should be highlighted on major platforms to correct the wrong records of most media on Ukraine and the Western proxy war against Russia. “Even then, Lviv had a reputation as being a particularly patriotic, even nationalist, city. My personal experience at the time was that that was true, and that this tendency was on the rise. You had demonstrations celebrating the OUN (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists in WW2). You found it in policies of public commemoration. Lviv has one of the largest monuments to Stepan Bandera in Ukraine, built or inaugurated during my time there. There was already a very consistent denial of the crimes of Ukrainian nationalists in WW2, the enormous massacres that they conducted systematically against the Poles. Nazi symbols in Lviv “You had the symbolism of the Waffen-SS division that the Nazis established in 1943. Lviv was the epicentre of that operation. Their symbolism, their coat of arms, that was there in the public space. You had the black and red of the OUN, that was prominent... From what I can see now, it must have become much more aggressive. At the same time, there has been some resistance against forced mobilization in Lviv. On one side, there is this escalation of very strong nationalism that was already there. On the other, clearly the impact of the war is that some people are beginning to resist mobilization, even there.”

Eva Karene Bartlett

21,937 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce

Mellon knows people who believe 100% that the USG and/or its contractors have materials and craft from a non-human intelligence. But, he also knows this... "I can tell you that there are senior Pentagon people who do not believe that there's any crash material [and] do think that this is all bogus." ~Christopher K. Mellon in Barcelona (People like to ignore this from Mellon but I won't. I shared similar comments from him at this same conference back when he said it but the post did crappy because a lot of people just want info. that will confirm their beliefs. As Rizwan Virk said, it would be interesting to see what Mellon thinks today, as this was in the fall of 2022, before Grusch went public. Obviously, Mellon knew about Grusch when he made these comments.) Mellon: "I can tell you that there are senior Pentagon people who do not believe that there's any crash material [and] do think that this is all bogus, they think it's rubbish. And, uhhh, and, you know, much less disclosure. And I'm talking about very, very senior people who have access to a lot of information. And they're saying, in some cases, to the people on The Hill, 'What are you talking about?' And, you know, 'Show us the evidence.' And, you know, they're mystified, still. "So, the UFO community, of which I'm a part, I guess, but you know, we have a tendency to see and hear, you know, one side of the story in our own stuff. And there's a lot of conspiracy theories because the government has lied and concealed information, and all of those things. The conspiracy theories grow in darkness, right? "But, to the best of my knowledge, the federal government is not in charge of running, it doesn't have any big plan, and disclosure is not imminent. If it does happen, it'll be the result of the efforts of people in Congress right now, and people who are taking action. And a small number of people who may have this information, if they come forward."

Joe Murgia

23,519 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

If Zohran Kwame Mamdani lied to U.S. immigration about his failure to register with Selective Service (a federal felony) for over 7 years, Zohran is still subject to criminal prosecution until 2028. And Zohran would be subject to denaturalization forever. READ THE LAW: U.S. citizens can be denaturalized for lying to immigration authorities during the naturalization process if the lie involves the concealment of a material fact or willful misrepresentation that resulted in procuring citizenship. This is a civil process under 8 U.S.C. § 1451(a), where the government must prove the elements by clear, unequivocal, and convincing evidence: the fact was willfully misrepresented or concealed, it was material (meaning it had a natural tendency to influence the decision, even if it wouldn't have necessarily prevented approval), and citizenship was obtained as a result. Examples include failing to disclose criminal history, prior identities, or affiliations with certain organizations (like communist or terrorist groups) within five years post-naturalization, which serves as prima facie evidence of such concealment. The Department of Justice handles these cases and has pursued denaturalization against individuals for immigration fraud, including lying on applications. There is no statute of limitations for civil denaturalization proceedings. However, if the lying also constitutes a criminal offense (e.g., under 18 U.S.C. § 1425 for knowingly procuring naturalization contrary to law), the statute of limitations for prosecution is 10 years from the commission of the offense. The primary penalty is revocation of naturalization, which strips the individual of U.S. citizenship and reverts them to their prior immigration status (often lawful permanent residency, though they may then face removal proceedings if deportable). If criminal charges are brought under 18 U.S.C. § 1425 within the 10-year window, penalties include fines and imprisonment: up to 25 years if the offense facilitated international terrorism, 20 years if it facilitated drug trafficking, 10 years for a first or second offense not involving terrorism or drugs, or 15 years for any other offense (or a combination of fine and imprisonment). In practice, sentences for straightforward immigration fraud cases have included shorter prison terms, such as eight months. Additional consequences can include permanent inadmissibility to the U.S., loss of benefits tied to citizenship, and civil fines under related statutes.

SCOOCH דוד

249,573 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce