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Why this strike is so significant: ◾️ Primorsk port is Russia’s largest oil-loading port on the Baltic Sea. It is the terminal point of the Baltic Pipeline System (BPS) and plays a key role in exporting Urals crude. The port is a critically important piece of infrastructure, handling around...

115,210 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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In recent weeks, Ukrainian drones have demonstrated the most effective 'sanctions' against the Russian oil industry, delivering dozens of successful strikes on major Russian refineries and energy infrastructure facilities in Russia's rear. Production halts, disruptions at enterprises, a fuel crisis, gasoline shortages, kilometer-long lines at gas stations, record-high price increases – these are all the results of the work of Ukrainian drones. In addition, destroying fuel reserves near the frontlines negatively affects the combat capability of the Russian army and the military-industrial complex as a whole. 🔷 Regular attacks on Russian refineries and oil depots started last year. The current campaign is focused on all plants in key regions of consumption and processing. Its effects are becoming increasingly tangible, in part due to sanctions and the lack of imported equipment needed to repair damaged facilities. 🔷 In August 2025 alone, the following were attacked: ◾️ 02.08 – Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery ◾️ 02.08 – Ryazan oil refinery ◾️ 03.08 – fuel depot at Sochi Airport (Krasnodar Krai) ◾️ 07.08 – Afipsky oil refinery (Krasnodar Krai) ◾️ 08.08 – Ertan oil depot near the Millerovo air base (Rostov region) ◾️ 10.08 – Saratov oil refinery ◾️ 12.08 – Unecha Transneft-Druzhba oil pumping station (Bryansk region) ◾️ 14.08 – Volgograd oil refinery ◾️ 18.08 – Nikolskoye-Transneft oil pumping station (Tambov region) ◾️ 20.08 – Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery (Rostov region) ◾️ 21.08 – Unecha Transneft-Druzhba oil pumping station ◾️ 22.08 – Albashneft oil refinery (Krasnodar Krai) ◾️ 24.08 – Syzran oil refinery (Samara region) ◾️ 24.08 – Oil export terminal in Ust-Luga (Leningrad region) ◾️ 28.08 – Kuibyshev oil refinery (Samara region) ◾️ 28.08 – Afipsky oil refinery ◾️ 30.08 – Krasnodar oil refinery ◾️ 30.08 – Syzran oil refinery 🔷 According to Reuters, by the end of August 2025, Ukraine's long-range strikes had disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refinery capacity. Experts predict that gasoline shortages caused by the ongoing attacks on refineries could lead to rising inflation and further macroeconomic instability in Russia. 🔷 To save the situation, the Kremlin is urgently: ◾️ seeking opportunities to purchase fuel from Belarus; ◾️ extending restrictions on gasoline exports; ◾️ introducing gasoline coupons; ◾️ revising its oil export plan to at least somehow sell the crude freed up after key refineries were brought out of operation (and this amid existing restrictions on Russia's shadow fleet and the threat of secondary sanctions for countries buying Russian energy resources); ◾️ using all available public platforms to get a so-called 'energy truce' from Kyiv. Economic pressure and targeted strikes deep inside Russia are a path to negotiations. 📹: RUSZKIK HAZA (Russians go home) project of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, results for August 2025.

Anton Gerashchenko

46,397 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Russia has lost $7 billion in oil revenues due to UAV attacks - President Zelenskyy comments on strikes against Russian oil facilities and promises further actions. Volodymyr Zelenskyy commented on strikes against oil infrastructure in the Russian Federation and announced further measures. “Based on the results of this April, our long-range ‘sanctions’ have reached a new level in three components: reducing Russian oil revenues, range, and intensity. It is important that not only is the target itself reached, as defined by the operational objective, but also that the downtime of the facility increases or, at the very least, its operations are significantly reduced,” Zelenskyy said. ‼️ Andrii Klymenko, editor-in-chief of BlackSeaNews: “In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have carried out several dozen coordinated and calculated UAV and missile strikes across the entire chain of Russian oil processing and transportation infrastructure - including pipeline junction stations, oil refineries, and maritime export terminals in ports of the Baltic and Black Seas. Undoubtedly, Russia has sustained significant losses. The exact scale will likely only be assessable in about a month, based on actual export volumes of oil and petroleum products, as well as the condition of the domestic Russian market. It should be understood that in Russia, all indicators related to oil production, refining, and exports are strictly classified. Therefore, any figures or conclusions based on Russian sources may constitute deliberate disinformation. In our view, the key development at present is that a surplus of crude oil has formed in Russia, which cannot be processed at refineries due to damage caused by the attacks. As a result, Russia is attempting to push as much of this crude oil as possible onto export markets. However, even with this effort, due to damage to port terminals, we cautiously estimate a reduction in crude oil exports in April 2026 in the range of 17-20%. Further developments will depend on how quickly Russia can repair its refineries and port terminals, and, of course, on how effective continued Ukrainian military operations will be against Russia’s export capacity - revenues from which are used to finance the import of sanctioned goods for the production of missiles and other weapons.” 📹 The consequences of strikes on oil infrastructure facilities in Tuapse, Perm, and Novorossiysk

Anton Gerashchenko

60,435 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The impact and perspectives of Ukrainian strikes on Russia's oil ports: Ukrainian strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure could be a way to raise the stakes and force Putin towards the negotiations table. President Zelenskyy's Middle East tour is probably also part of Ukraine's strategy to change the negotiations format. However, without China, the new negotiations format is unlikely, according to Denysenko. Here, it is important to note that a large part of Russia's oil exports to China goes through the ports in the Baltics. Russia has three main locations for exporting oil and oil products in the Western direction: terminals in Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports (both in the Baltics) and Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk (the Black Sea). These three locations together are responsible for a large part of Russia's oil exports (up to 60%). In about two weeks, March 22 - April 6, 2026, Ukrainian Defense Forces launched successful strikes on all three of the main Western ports in Russia. Nothing is more strategic for Russia's economy, and these objects are heavily protected. However, in two weeks, Ukrainian Defenders successfully broke through their defense at least seven times. This means: ▪️Ukraine's ability to launch long-range strikes inside Russia is superior compared to Russian air defense; ▪️Ukraine is improving our tactics of launching long-range strikes. The ports have not been destroyed completely, and the final scope of the damage will depend on many details (including the scale of future strikes). However, there are numerous assessments that it will take at least months to repair a part of the destroyed infrastructure (e.g., the large reservoirs that burned down completely). Available satellite images allow us to assume that about 10% of the total ports' volume has been put out of order for months, and about 20-30% is out of order for at least weeks. This means that the damage is huge, and that's just the ports, not including the other strikes on Russia's oil infrastructure. Within the same two weeks, Ukraine has also launched strikes on three major Russian oil refineries. All these strikes are contributing to further dis-balancing of Russia's oil production and exports, which creates further vulnerabilities in the system. Russia has already banned gasoline exports. Further limitation of Russian capacities to export crude oil, combined with burning down oil reservoirs, will inevitably lead to the need to shut down oil wells (then, it is technically very difficult to reopen them). Add to that the Russian shadow fleet tankers that are being detained and those that burn down. All these negative effects will keep adding up, changing the potential negotiations dynamics. 📹: last night's attack on Novorossiysk port

Anton Gerashchenko

111,877 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

As Mr. Rubio has kindly informed us earlier, today is Russia day. I've prepared several facts of what Putin's rule has brought Russia to in the past 25 years. ◾️ Finances: The Russian government plans to revise the federal budget for 2025, increasing the deficit by 250% – from $12 billion to $42 billion. The official inflation rate is supposedly 7.6%, but according to estimates by the Foreign Intelligence Service, real inflation in Russia already exceeds 20%. According to the US Department of Defense, Russia has spent at least $250 billion on the war against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion. Russia's economic losses from the war and sanctions are around $1.3 trillion. At the same time, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, 12.6 million Russians were living below the poverty line in 2024. But Putin does not care about the standard of living in Russia. ◾️ Demographic decline and huge losses on the front lines: Since the full-scale invasion, according to various estimates, between 650,000 and 1.3 million Russians have left the country. More than 1 million have been killed and injured in the war. Russia has been flooded with criminals who received amnesty for participating in the war in Ukraine. Crime levels have risen dramatically in Russia. ◾️ Oil: Due to sanctions, Russia has lost its rich Western markets and is forced to sell oil to China at bargain prices. Currently, Russian oil is sold in the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk for approximately $47-49 per barrel, which is significantly lower than the budgeted figure of $69.7. As a result, Russia's annual oil and gas revenues could fall by up to 30%, or $30-40 billion, which is almost equal to the entire Russian budget deficit for the current year. ◾️ Military: The Russian army has long lost its status as the "second" in the world and has turned into a bunch of looters and criminals, "cannon fodder" that is thrown into battle for a forest area near another destroyed Ukrainian village. ◾️ Navy: Ukrainian drones and missiles are methodically turning the Black Sea Fleet into an underwater fleet. Moreover, recently the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) blew up the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge for the third time. ◾️ Space: In 2024, Russia launched only 17 rockets into space. By comparison, the US launched 152 rockets and China launched 65. A place in the top three with a score of 17 is little consolation, especially considering that New Zealand launched 13 rockets in 2024. Under international sanctions, Russia cannot purchase expensive microchips and other necessary equipment. ◾️ Attacks on Russia: Since the beginning of 2025, more than 17 attacks have been carried out on oil depots and refineries in Russia. In 2024, Ukrainian drones attacked oil refineries and fuel depots in Russia, annexed Crimea, and occupied territories of Ukraine at least 81 times. ◾️ Aviation: The SBU struck four strategic airfields in different regions of Russia with drones. The total losses of enemy aircraft amount to 41 units, including A-50, Tu-95, Tu-22, Tu-160, An-12, and Il-78 aircraft. The operation weakened Russia's strike capabilities by 20-30%. Military experts around the world, commenting on the SBU's special operation, called the actions of Putin's FSB, which allowed everything to happen right under its nose, one of the biggest failures in the history of the Russian special services. 📹: Russian cemeteries in Vladivostok and Krasnoyarsk region.

Anton Gerashchenko

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