Will quantum kill Bitcoin? Cracking a Bitcoin key takes ~1,200 reliable qubits. The best demo so far: 96 qubits. Quantum is a real problem. However, Bitcoin has time and options, even in the worst case. My full 26-minute presentation: Timestamps: 00:00 Will quantum kill Bitcoin? The short answer 01:15... Bits vs. qubits, explained simply 01:48 Why 1 reliable qubit takes ~400 physical qubits 02:28 The 1 algorithm that actually threatens Bitcoin 03:56 The only part of Bitcoin at risk 04:09 Why unspent addresses keep your key hidden 05:03 Satoshi's coins, reused addresses and Taproot 05:43 Long exposure vs. short exposure attacks 07:28 90% of Bitcoin is hidden or fixable 08:36 1,200 qubits needed. The record is 96. 09:34 Why 96 is further from 1,200 than it looks 10:57 Quantum's record: a 15-bit key your phone cracks in 1 second 12:20 51% to 70% of experts expect it within 15 years 12:56 Satoshi answered this in 2010 13:26 2 "quantum-proof" schemes that got broken 14:24 Bigger signatures could cut Bitcoin below 1 TPS 15:37 BIP-360 and 4 quantum-safe address designs 17:15 New quantum-safe signatures 17:42 Triggers: when to switch off old signatures 18:21 Freeze, slow down or leave old coins alone? 18:58 Rescue plans: Lifeboat and zero-knowledge proofs 20:58 Worst case: a quantum computer arrives tomorrow 22:34 "Safe at rest and safely move" 22:53 What happens to Satoshi's ~1 million coins? 23:41 Why I'd let the market absorb them 24:50 No need to rush. Keep building. 25:54 Bottom line: quantum is an engineering problemshow more

Joe, this is a high quality presention. May I ask what AI presentation tool you use to make sure clean slides? I also run into the issue of not looking at the webcam when I am giving my talks… do you have any recommendations on that? Thank you and God bless 🙏

I'm not clear on whether quantum can factor even an 8 bit number yet eg 27 or 84 or something absurdly small? All by itself, and spit out the answer? @grok

96 qubits … that are publicly known at least

No.

Great breakdown. You and @PeterPrunt are my go to crypto accounts for this stuff.

Good slides, terrible take on not doing anything and keep Satoshi's coins for grab by CCP or other rogue resourceful entities, using it as a bargaining chip. Slow down the spent and a win win situation.

The qubit count is not the whole story. P2PKH hides the key behind a hash until you spend, while Taproot and old P2PK expose it on chain. So a quantum attacker targets exposed coins first, not all Bitcoin at once. Address reuse turns a future risk into a present exposure.

Nice clip Joe, well done.

Quantum will kill banking first. Banking is way less secure than Bitcoin, and a much larger honeypot.

quantum risk hinges on error-corrected logical qubits and attack cost, not raw qubit counts alone. what assumptions drive the 1,200 estimate?

"Cracking a Bitcoin key takes ~1,200 reliable qubits. The best demo so far: 96 qubits." Maybe not a great way to state it: to a layman, 1200 vs 96 is only a factor of 12.5. That sounds like a 2-5 year engineering task ("just make it bigger"). When in fact the difference is exponentially more difficult, as far as we know. Great video!