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You will learn CEBE because it is the future. Trust the math. Not feelings. $MSTR $BTC

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Adam Livingston

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48,967 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.
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MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

Adam Livingston

29,286 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:
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What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8 years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:

Adam Livingston

104,041 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.
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🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,471 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

$MSTR < $100 Saylor will be the first man to watch his stock crash 99% twice. $STRC needs cash. $BTC is the only exit. Do NOT say I didn't warn you later...
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$MSTR < $100 Saylor will be the first man to watch his stock crash 99% twice. $STRC needs cash. $BTC is the only exit. Do NOT say I didn't warn you later...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

244,362 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

JUST IN: JPMORGAN JUST SENT A MASSIVE WARNING AGAINST #BITCOIN $MSTR IS NOT EVEN "THE MAIN THREAT TO BTC" "EVEN IF THE CLARITY ACT PASSES THIS YEAR, IT WONT RESOLVE THE REAL RISKS" BTC WILL ONLY SURVIVE IF IT STAYS AS "DIGITAL GOLD" BIG BANKS WANT TO STOP CRYPTO ADOPTION THEY WANT TO CONTROL THE SYSTEM THE FIGHT IS ON 💀
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JUST IN: JPMORGAN JUST SENT A MASSIVE WARNING AGAINST #BITCOIN $MSTR IS NOT EVEN "THE MAIN THREAT TO BTC" "EVEN IF THE CLARITY ACT PASSES THIS YEAR, IT WONT RESOLVE THE REAL RISKS" BTC WILL ONLY SURVIVE IF IT STAYS AS "DIGITAL GOLD" BIG BANKS WANT TO STOP CRYPTO ADOPTION THEY WANT TO CONTROL THE SYSTEM THE FIGHT IS ON 💀

The Bitcoin Historian

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Trust is no longer enough… AEREDIUM verifies before execution - so every transaction is backed by proof, not assumption. The future of finance will not run on promises. It will run on proof.
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Trust is no longer enough… AEREDIUM verifies before execution - so every transaction is backed by proof, not assumption. The future of finance will not run on promises. It will run on proof.

AEREDIUM

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The salute means one thing: trust. Trust the aircraft is ready. Trust it will perform when it matters most. We'll see you when you get back.
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The salute means one thing: trust. Trust the aircraft is ready. Trust it will perform when it matters most. We'll see you when you get back.

Lockheed Martin

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The reason you want it so badly is because the version of you in the future already has it
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The reason you want it so badly is because the version of you in the future already has it

le.hl

68,518 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

MSTR, ASST, and MPJPY Returns Three Bitcoin treasury companies walk into a $126,000 BTC print. Nobody buys another coin. mNAV does absolutely nothing. The market is finally forced to perform the humiliating administrative procedure known as arithmetic. The stock-price equation is simple. BTC price growth × common-equity BTC exposure per share × change in mNAV. Bitcoin rises from $66,852 to $126,000. That is 1.8848× for everybody. Same Bitcoin rocket. Different quantities of financial plutonium strapped beneath the common stock. The second multiplier is CEBE per share: ASST: 13,396 → 17,257 sats/share 1.2882× MSTR: 147,811 → 177,296 sats/share 1.1995× MPJPY: 2,661 → 2,941 sats/share 1.1050× Multiply the two engines: ASST: 1.8848 × 1.2882 = 2.4280× +142.8% MSTR: 1.8848 × 1.1995 = 2.2607× +126.1% MPJPY: 1.8848 × 1.1050 = 2.0826× +108.3% So ASST wins. MSTR finishes second. MTPLF finishes third. But you cannot ignore the premium risk. Maybe the mNAV goes higher for the company with the highest mNAV now. Maybe all converge to 1.0. If all three companies’ ending mNAVs converge to 1.0×, the valuation reset sharply changes the ranking: MPJPY finishes first with a modeled total stock return of approximately 140.6%, because its multiple expands from 0.8656× to parity. MSTR ranks second at roughly 115.0%, as its modest compression from 1.0516× causes only limited damage. ASST ranks third at approximately 65.2%, because its much larger contraction from 1.4695× to 1.0× absorbs a substantial portion of its superior underlying CEBE growth. Entry matters! :)
0:14

MSTR, ASST, and MPJPY Returns Three Bitcoin treasury companies walk into a $126,000 BTC print. Nobody buys another coin. mNAV does absolutely nothing. The market is finally forced to perform the humiliating administrative procedure known as arithmetic. The stock-price equation is simple. BTC price growth × common-equity BTC exposure per share × change in mNAV. Bitcoin rises from $66,852 to $126,000. That is 1.8848× for everybody. Same Bitcoin rocket. Different quantities of financial plutonium strapped beneath the common stock. The second multiplier is CEBE per share: ASST: 13,396 → 17,257 sats/share 1.2882× MSTR: 147,811 → 177,296 sats/share 1.1995× MPJPY: 2,661 → 2,941 sats/share 1.1050× Multiply the two engines: ASST: 1.8848 × 1.2882 = 2.4280× +142.8% MSTR: 1.8848 × 1.1995 = 2.2607× +126.1% MPJPY: 1.8848 × 1.1050 = 2.0826× +108.3% So ASST wins. MSTR finishes second. MTPLF finishes third. But you cannot ignore the premium risk. Maybe the mNAV goes higher for the company with the highest mNAV now. Maybe all converge to 1.0. If all three companies’ ending mNAVs converge to 1.0×, the valuation reset sharply changes the ranking: MPJPY finishes first with a modeled total stock return of approximately 140.6%, because its multiple expands from 0.8656× to parity. MSTR ranks second at roughly 115.0%, as its modest compression from 1.0516× causes only limited damage. ASST ranks third at approximately 65.2%, because its much larger contraction from 1.4695× to 1.0× absorbs a substantial portion of its superior underlying CEBE growth. Entry matters! :)

Adam Livingston

24,890 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.
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Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Adam Livingston

132,040 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

i'm not afraid on whatever decisions she will make in the future. she will always have my love and support. i trust her. i believe in her. and that's because she is... #SAKURA #사쿠라 #ックラ #宮脇咲良 #sakumail
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i'm not afraid on whatever decisions she will make in the future. she will always have my love and support. i trust her. i believe in her. and that's because she is... #SAKURA #사쿠라 #ックラ #宮脇咲良 #sakumail

𝐣𝐚𝐣𝐚

208,521 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

This is how you learn Math! 🤣🤣
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This is how you learn Math! 🤣🤣

LynneP

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Trust is the fundamental basis of any relationship... Without trust this relationship cannot continue. It will not bear fruit 💜💜💜
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Trust is the fundamental basis of any relationship... Without trust this relationship cannot continue. It will not bear fruit 💜💜💜

jin__wwh

207,741 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.
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🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.

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