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Zuck on: - Llama 3 - open sourcing towards AGI - custom silicon, synthetic data, & energy constraints on scaling - Caeser Augustus, intelligence explosion, bioweapons, $10b models, & much more Enjoy! Links below

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Dwarkesh Patel

240,270 subscribers

870,920 просмотров • 2 лет назад •via X (Twitter)

ОбразованиеНовости и политикаНаука и технологии
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Комментарии: 10

Фото профиля Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel2 лет назад

YouTube: Transcript: Apple Podcasts: Spotify:

Фото профиля nic carter
nic carter2 лет назад

@JosephJacks_ Thank you for your consistently amazing work Dwarkesh.

Фото профиля Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel2 лет назад

@JosephJacks_ ❤️

Фото профиля main
main2 лет назад

more excited for this than the actual model

Фото профиля Nemo
Nemo2 лет назад

common dwarkesh win

Фото профиля Zggy
Zggy2 лет назад

I have to admit, Zuck interviews very well, far better than Sam. He comes across as more consistently candid, and I can see how his optimism can be contagious and refreshing.

Фото профиля Mckay Wrigley
Mckay Wrigley2 лет назад

Best podcast in the world.

Фото профиля Chris Gaun
Chris Gaun2 лет назад

Grew out the fro and gained new social magnetism. Dude's Samson

Фото профиля Emad
Emad2 лет назад

This was a really good interview thank you

Фото профиля Tyler 🏴‍☠️
Tyler 🏴‍☠️2 лет назад

The people champ

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2:28:14

Here's my conversation with Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, all about the future of AI & AGI, simulating biology & physics, video games, programming, video generation, world models, Gemini 3, scaling laws, compute, P vs NP, complexity, energy (solar & fusion), and much more. This was a fun & fascinating super-technical conversation. It's here on X in full and is up everywhere else (see comment). Timestamps: 0:00 - Episode highlight 1:21 - Introduction 2:06 - Learnable patterns in nature 5:48 - Computation and P vs NP 14:26 - Veo 3 and understanding reality 18:50 - Video games 30:52 - AlphaEvolve 36:53 - AI research 41:17 - Simulating a biological organism 46:00 - Origin of life 52:15 - Path to AGI 1:03:01 - Scaling laws 1:06:17 - Compute 1:09:04 - Future of energy 1:13:00 - Human nature 1:17:54 - Google and the race to AGI 1:35:53 - Competition and AI talent 1:42:27 - Future of programming 1:48:53 - John von Neumann 1:58:07 - p(doom) 2:02:50 - Humanity 2:05:56 - Consciousness and quantum computation 2:12:06 - David Foster Wallace 2:19:20 - Education and research

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Chamath Palihapitiya believes AGI may already exist inside leading AI labs and the bigger story is that advanced intelligence is becoming cheaper and more widely available (Save this). Chamath Palihapitiya argues that the public may be focused too much on benchmark rankings, while frontier labs are already developing models capable of complex reasoning, coding, research, and tool use. The main question is how quickly companies will release these systems and how much access they will provide. AGI has not been officially confirmed and strong benchmark results do not necessarily prove that a model can perform every intellectual task like a human. However, AI capabilities are improving quickly, while the cost of running advanced models continues to fall. That combination is important because cheaper AI can be used by more businesses for customer service, software development, research, marketing, financial analysis, and automation. Competition is also accelerating among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta, and open source developers because as more companies release capable models, users gain more choices and prices continue to decline. This creates a powerful cycle in which better models attract more users, more usage generates more revenue and data, and lower prices encourage companies to apply AI to additional tasks. The biggest challenge is moving from impressive demonstrations to measurable business results. Companies still need to redesign workflows, train employees, protect sensitive information, and prove that AI spending is producing a real return on investment. AI agents could create the next major increase in demand because they can plan tasks, use tools, check their work, retry failed actions and operate for long periods without constant human supervision. Even if each AI task becomes cheaper, total usage could grow much faster as businesses use models across more departments and this could increase demand for GPUs, high bandwidth memory, networking equipment, electricity, cooling systems, and data centers.

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1:44

Here's a demo on a project I've been developing and working on for the past 9 months. Called NightBeacon. Using it now in production, getting released fully this week. Our own internally trained models on our own infrastructure (no third party). Trained on our analysts knowledge and behavior (TP/FPs retrain model to be smarter with context). Handles emails (including tonality), attachments, various malicious filetypes (DLL/exe/svg/lnk/etc). Can send it full evtx exports, packet dumps, zip files, whatever. Universal log handler can parse any log from any source, EDR, SIEM, etc. Deep-Scan / sandbox detonation + shellcode emulation with IOC extraction automatically. Automatic playbook generation, full AI-based recommendations custom to the attack. Synthetic training data layer - meaning when it trains on a specific attack at a customer, generates training data based on the customers data but never has any of the actual data or information about the customer in it. No customer information. For areas its weak at, bubbles up and automatically kicks off research to become smarter on a specific topic. Supports GenAI based rulesets (to improve confidence), over 900+ YARA rules, full MITRE ATT&CK integration. Integrated into our SOAR - enriches data, creates playbooks for analysts, MTTR reduces substantially, false positives reduced, true positive escalations. Not using our MDR service? Can integrate into your EDR or SIEM for automatic enrichment and escalation of attacks. Built to help respond faster. More accurately. Be intelligent based on our analysts intelligence. Stop attackers much much faster. Coming soon.. #BinaryDefense

Dave Kennedy

12,905 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Synthetic data will provide the next trillion tokens to fuel our hungry models. I'm excited to announce MimicGen: massively scaling up data pipeline for robot learning! We multiply high-quality human data in simulation with digital twins. Using 50,000 training episodes across 18 tasks, multiple simulators, and even in the real-world! The idea is simple: 1. Humans tele-operate the robot to complete a task. It is extremely high-quality but also very slow and expensive. 2. We create a digital twin of the robot and the scene in high-fidelity, GPU-accelerated simulation. 3. We can now move objects around, replace with new assets, and even change the robot hand - basically augment the training data with procedural generation. 4. Export the successful episodes, and feed that to a neural network! You now have an near-infinite stream of data. One of the key reasons that robotics lags far behind other AI fields is the lack of data: you cannot scrape control signals from the internet. They simply don't exist in-the-wild. MimicGen shows the power of synthetic data and simulation to keep our scaling laws alive. I believe this principle apply beyond robotics. We are quickly exhausting the high-quality, real tokens from the web. Artificial intelligence from artificial data will be the way forward. We are big fans of the OSS community. As usual, we open-source everything, including the generated dataset! - Website: - Paper: - Dataset is hosted on HuggingFace (thanks AK!!): - Code: MimicGen is led by Ajay Mandlekar, deep dive in the thread:
0:46

Synthetic data will provide the next trillion tokens to fuel our hungry models. I'm excited to announce MimicGen: massively scaling up data pipeline for robot learning! We multiply high-quality human data in simulation with digital twins. Using 50,000 training episodes across 18 tasks, multiple simulators, and even in the real-world! The idea is simple: 1. Humans tele-operate the robot to complete a task. It is extremely high-quality but also very slow and expensive. 2. We create a digital twin of the robot and the scene in high-fidelity, GPU-accelerated simulation. 3. We can now move objects around, replace with new assets, and even change the robot hand - basically augment the training data with procedural generation. 4. Export the successful episodes, and feed that to a neural network! You now have an near-infinite stream of data. One of the key reasons that robotics lags far behind other AI fields is the lack of data: you cannot scrape control signals from the internet. They simply don't exist in-the-wild. MimicGen shows the power of synthetic data and simulation to keep our scaling laws alive. I believe this principle apply beyond robotics. We are quickly exhausting the high-quality, real tokens from the web. Artificial intelligence from artificial data will be the way forward. We are big fans of the OSS community. As usual, we open-source everything, including the generated dataset! - Website: - Paper: - Dataset is hosted on HuggingFace (thanks AK!!): - Code: MimicGen is led by Ajay Mandlekar, deep dive in the thread:

Jim Fan

332,238 просмотров • 3 лет назад

AI models currently have a 50% chance of doing something that takes a human expert one hour. This doubles every 7 months. In 2 years? They could automate full workdays. In 4 years? A full month. I discuss the most important graph in AI today with Beth Barnes, the CEO of METR, which uncovered this rule of AI progress. Her bottom line: "It really doesn't seem like 2 years would be surprising for recursively self-improving AI." Beth also explains: where company safety testing fails, why there are no true closed-weight models, AI undermines leading powers, why she's come around on open weighting, and why models might be about to start playing dumb much more often. Enjoy! Available on the 80,000 Hours Podcast in all apps. Links below. 1:51 Can we see AI scheming in the chain of thought? 12:50 Alignment faking 17:33 We have to test models before they're even used inside AI companies 31:56 Each 7 months models can do tasks twice as long 51:31 METR's research finds AIs are solid at AI research already 58:18 AI may turn out to be strong at novel and creative research 1:07:55 Recursively self-improving AI might even be here in two years 1:14:29 Could evaluations backfire? 1:39:55 Do we need external auditors doing AI safety tests? 1:54:09 Why not work at AI companies 2:08:40 The new more dire situation has forced changes to METR's strategy 2:21:49 Overrated: Interpretability research 2:32:55 Overrated: Major AI companies' contributions to safety research 2:39:15 Could we ban using AI to enhance AI, or is that just naive? 2:45:31 Open-weighting models is often good 2:50:22 What we can learn about AGI from the nuclear arms race 3:10:43 AI is more like bioweapons because it undermines the leading power 3:42:09 What research METR plans to do next
3:57:39

AI models currently have a 50% chance of doing something that takes a human expert one hour. This doubles every 7 months. In 2 years? They could automate full workdays. In 4 years? A full month. I discuss the most important graph in AI today with Beth Barnes, the CEO of METR, which uncovered this rule of AI progress. Her bottom line: "It really doesn't seem like 2 years would be surprising for recursively self-improving AI." Beth also explains: where company safety testing fails, why there are no true closed-weight models, AI undermines leading powers, why she's come around on open weighting, and why models might be about to start playing dumb much more often. Enjoy! Available on the 80,000 Hours Podcast in all apps. Links below. 1:51 Can we see AI scheming in the chain of thought? 12:50 Alignment faking 17:33 We have to test models before they're even used inside AI companies 31:56 Each 7 months models can do tasks twice as long 51:31 METR's research finds AIs are solid at AI research already 58:18 AI may turn out to be strong at novel and creative research 1:07:55 Recursively self-improving AI might even be here in two years 1:14:29 Could evaluations backfire? 1:39:55 Do we need external auditors doing AI safety tests? 1:54:09 Why not work at AI companies 2:08:40 The new more dire situation has forced changes to METR's strategy 2:21:49 Overrated: Interpretability research 2:32:55 Overrated: Major AI companies' contributions to safety research 2:39:15 Could we ban using AI to enhance AI, or is that just naive? 2:45:31 Open-weighting models is often good 2:50:22 What we can learn about AGI from the nuclear arms race 3:10:43 AI is more like bioweapons because it undermines the leading power 3:42:09 What research METR plans to do next

Rob Wiblin

93,669 просмотров • 1 год назад

Despite much progress in AI, the ability for AI to 'smell' like humans remains elusive. Smell AIs 🤖👃can be used for allergen sensing (e.g., peanuts or gluten in food), hormone detection for health, safety & environmental monitoring, quality control in manufacturing, and more. As a step towards AI for smell, our group is releasing **SmellNet,** a massive open dataset to advance AI smell-recognition in real-world settings. Using portable gas and chemical sensors, we collected 180,000 time steps of 50 substances (spanning nuts, spices, herbs, fruits, and vegetables) with 50 hours of data. SmellNet enables the training of AI models for real-time classification of substances based on their smell alone - see video below, where even subtle differences between cumin, cloves, and oregano can be detected. Check out our paper and open-source data & code for the smell AI revolution! paper: data & code: w Dewei, Carol, David dvd@COLM2026 MIT Media Lab MIT EECS
0:34

Despite much progress in AI, the ability for AI to 'smell' like humans remains elusive. Smell AIs 🤖👃can be used for allergen sensing (e.g., peanuts or gluten in food), hormone detection for health, safety & environmental monitoring, quality control in manufacturing, and more. As a step towards AI for smell, our group is releasing **SmellNet,** a massive open dataset to advance AI smell-recognition in real-world settings. Using portable gas and chemical sensors, we collected 180,000 time steps of 50 substances (spanning nuts, spices, herbs, fruits, and vegetables) with 50 hours of data. SmellNet enables the training of AI models for real-time classification of substances based on their smell alone - see video below, where even subtle differences between cumin, cloves, and oregano can be detected. Check out our paper and open-source data & code for the smell AI revolution! paper: data & code: w Dewei, Carol, David dvd@COLM2026 MIT Media Lab MIT EECS

Paul Liang

21,328 просмотров • 1 год назад

This is my fifth conversation with Gavin Baker. Gavin understands semiconductors and AI as well as anyone I know and has a gift for making sense of the industry's complexity and nuance. We discuss: - Nvidia vs Google (GPUs + TPUs) - Scaling laws and reasoning models - The economics of AI compute - Why Blackwell's delay mattered - The bear case on the AI capex buildout - Data centers in space - The mistake SaaS companies are making Few people love investing more than Gavin. His closing answer about why he loves it turned into a full reflection on his investing origin story, which I had never heard before. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 5:03 The Blackwell Transition 23:15 The Prisoner's Dilemma 27:12 The Bear Case: Edge AI 37:19 Meta, Open Source, and Model Depreciation 43:08 Geopolitics and Rare Earths 50:42 Data Centers in Space 56:06 Power Constraints as a Governor 1:11:31 The SaaS Mistake 1:16:17 Nuclear and Quantum 1:22:25 Gavin’s Investing Origins
1:28:25

This is my fifth conversation with Gavin Baker. Gavin understands semiconductors and AI as well as anyone I know and has a gift for making sense of the industry's complexity and nuance. We discuss: - Nvidia vs Google (GPUs + TPUs) - Scaling laws and reasoning models - The economics of AI compute - Why Blackwell's delay mattered - The bear case on the AI capex buildout - Data centers in space - The mistake SaaS companies are making Few people love investing more than Gavin. His closing answer about why he loves it turned into a full reflection on his investing origin story, which I had never heard before. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 5:03 The Blackwell Transition 23:15 The Prisoner's Dilemma 27:12 The Bear Case: Edge AI 37:19 Meta, Open Source, and Model Depreciation 43:08 Geopolitics and Rare Earths 50:42 Data Centers in Space 56:06 Power Constraints as a Governor 1:11:31 The SaaS Mistake 1:16:17 Nuclear and Quantum 1:22:25 Gavin’s Investing Origins

Patrick OShaughnessy

2,860,710 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

Mark Zuckerberg is explaining one of the most misunderstood dynamics in AI and it has direct investment implications (Save this). The concept he's describing is model distillation, and it's one of the most important techniques to emerge in AI over the past year. Here's how it works. You train a massive, enormously expensive model, in Meta's case, Llama 4 Behemoth, a 2 trillion parameter teacher model and then you use that model to teach a much smaller, cheaper model. The smaller model inherits roughly 90 to 95% of the intelligence of the giant while running at 10% of the cost and on a fraction of the compute. Meta already did this with the Llama 4 family and Behemoth serves as the teacher. Llama 4 Scout and Maverick, the publicly released open-source models were distilled from it. Scout runs on a single H100 GPU with a 10 million token context window and outperforms models that cost far more to operate. Maverick, at 17 billion active parameters, rivals DeepSeek V3 in coding at half the parameter count and beats GPT-4o on multimodal benchmarks. Both are completely free for commercial use. What Zuckerberg is pointing at is a structural shift in how AI gets deployed in the real world. Companies aren't taking a frontier model off the shelf and running it as-is but rather taking open-source models, fine-tuning them on their own proprietary data, distilling them into even smaller custom models tailored to their specific use case, and running them on infrastructure they control at a fraction of the cost of a closed frontier API. The investment implication of this is significant and runs in two directions. For Meta specifically, this is a strategic masterstroke. Every company that builds on Llama, fine-tunes it, distills it, or deploys it through their infrastructure is pulling into Meta's orbit while Meta builds the most powerful open teacher model. The ecosystem of companies using it grows and that ecosystem generates commercial activity across Meta's platforms and data services. Meta's AI research benefits from billions of real world deployment signals and it's a flywheel that closed model providers cannot replicate because their strategy requires charging per token, which is now a 65x cost disadvantage against the open-source alternative. For the broader market, distillation changes the economics of inference in a way that has barely been priced in. As intelligence becomes extractable into smaller and cheaper models, the absolute demand for compute doesn't decline but rather it explodes, because now the number of applications that are economically viable expands by orders of magnitude. Every task that was previously too expensive to automate at $3.25 per call becomes viable at $0.05 that means more total token usage, more total GPU utilization, and more demand for the infrastructure companies, the Nebiuses, the GE Vernovas, the Constellation Energies that supply the underlying compute and power.
1:05

Mark Zuckerberg is explaining one of the most misunderstood dynamics in AI and it has direct investment implications (Save this). The concept he's describing is model distillation, and it's one of the most important techniques to emerge in AI over the past year. Here's how it works. You train a massive, enormously expensive model, in Meta's case, Llama 4 Behemoth, a 2 trillion parameter teacher model and then you use that model to teach a much smaller, cheaper model. The smaller model inherits roughly 90 to 95% of the intelligence of the giant while running at 10% of the cost and on a fraction of the compute. Meta already did this with the Llama 4 family and Behemoth serves as the teacher. Llama 4 Scout and Maverick, the publicly released open-source models were distilled from it. Scout runs on a single H100 GPU with a 10 million token context window and outperforms models that cost far more to operate. Maverick, at 17 billion active parameters, rivals DeepSeek V3 in coding at half the parameter count and beats GPT-4o on multimodal benchmarks. Both are completely free for commercial use. What Zuckerberg is pointing at is a structural shift in how AI gets deployed in the real world. Companies aren't taking a frontier model off the shelf and running it as-is but rather taking open-source models, fine-tuning them on their own proprietary data, distilling them into even smaller custom models tailored to their specific use case, and running them on infrastructure they control at a fraction of the cost of a closed frontier API. The investment implication of this is significant and runs in two directions. For Meta specifically, this is a strategic masterstroke. Every company that builds on Llama, fine-tunes it, distills it, or deploys it through their infrastructure is pulling into Meta's orbit while Meta builds the most powerful open teacher model. The ecosystem of companies using it grows and that ecosystem generates commercial activity across Meta's platforms and data services. Meta's AI research benefits from billions of real world deployment signals and it's a flywheel that closed model providers cannot replicate because their strategy requires charging per token, which is now a 65x cost disadvantage against the open-source alternative. For the broader market, distillation changes the economics of inference in a way that has barely been priced in. As intelligence becomes extractable into smaller and cheaper models, the absolute demand for compute doesn't decline but rather it explodes, because now the number of applications that are economically viable expands by orders of magnitude. Every task that was previously too expensive to automate at $3.25 per call becomes viable at $0.05 that means more total token usage, more total GPU utilization, and more demand for the infrastructure companies, the Nebiuses, the GE Vernovas, the Constellation Energies that supply the underlying compute and power.

Milk Road AI

27,908 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад