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𝗕𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗡𝗮𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗼𝗻, 𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗮 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸. 𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁. My guest today is Robin Wigglesworth (Robin Wigglesworth), editor of FT Alphaville and author of A Fabulous Debt, a thousand-year history of the market that sets the price of everything else. We get into:... • An Austrian 100 year bond that lost 80%, while a defaulting Argentina paid off better • Why T-bills feel safe but can lose you 50%+ in real terms after inflation • Is private credit the next systemic blowup? • Why the $12 trillion repo market props up US treasuries with hidden leverage • How fixed income ETFs are making bonds trade like stocks • Dutch bonds written on goat skin that still pay interest 400 years latershow more

Meb Faber

143,764 subscribers

15,703 次观看 • 11 天前 •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

5 条评论

Meb Faber 的头像

Meb Faber11 天前

@FTAlphaville Apple: Spotify: YouTube:

Robin Wigglesworth 的头像

Robin Wigglesworth11 天前

@FTAlphaville Thanks for having me on Meb! This was a blast.

Michael Krause 的头像

Michael Krause11 天前

@RobinWigg @FTAlphaville Wonderful interview! Spellbinding. Book on order.

Geld&Leben 的头像

Geld&Leben11 天前

@RobinWigg @FTAlphaville Always fascinating to follow Robin on his deep dives into finacial markets

Lenny Hirst, CFP®, JD 的头像

Lenny Hirst, CFP®, JD11 天前

@RobinWigg @FTAlphaville They’re the smartest people in the room.

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Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

The All-In Podcast

98,290 次观看 • 1 年前

$Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.$

Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.2 trillion. For years, Japanese pension funds, insurance companies, and banks borrowed at 0% interest rates at home and invested that money in US Treasury bonds yielding 4-5%. This "carry trade" was essentially free money—borrow for nothing and earn solid returns with minimal risk. They turned this into a $20 trillion global trade (with 1.2 trillion being US Treasury bonds). But the game is changing. In November 2025, Japan announced a $130 billion stimulus package—money the government planned to spend to boost the economy. Normally, this would be good news. Instead, Japan's interest rates spiked to 1.8%, the highest in 20 years. Why? The bond market was sending a clear message: with Japan's debt already at 234% of GDP, investors have lost confidence in its ability to keep borrowing. This reaction ended the zero-rate environment that made the carry trade work. Now Japanese rates are at 1.8% while US rates are around 4.2%. The gap is shrinking, which means the carry trade isn't as profitable anymore. Japanese institutions might start selling their US Treasury bonds and bringing that money back home where rates are now competitive. If Japanese institutions start bringing that money home—even a fraction of it—the impact on US markets could be massive. When lots of people sell bonds, bond prices drop. When bond prices drop, interest rates go up. Higher US interest rates mean higher costs for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards for regular Americans. It also means the US government has to pay more to borrow money—and they're already paying $1 trillion per year just on interest for existing debt. The world's largest creditor-debtor relationship is entering uncharted territory. PS - I've recorded a 22-minute video covering this in more detail, as well as which sectors (and stocks) will benefit/suffer when this unfolds. If you want access to it, comment "JAPAN" and I'll DM it to you.

Felix Prehn 🐶

225,458 次观看 • 9 个月前

David Friedberg: Higher Interest Rates Are About to Make America’s $40 Trillion Debt Problem Much Worse “The federal government has a problem because over the next 12 months they have to refinance $10 trillion of debt. That debt is coming due. Those bonds are now due. They have to pay the principal back to the bond holders, and they have to go back to the treasury market and sell more treasuries to borrow more money to refinance. So the borrowing cost now is going to climb up, and when that borrowing cost climbs up, the federal government's burn goes up and the fiscal deficit goes up. So my theory and my argument on this is: There is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have a fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. It is very expensive now to borrow money if you're the US federal government. And the reason is persistent inflation, I would argue because of excess government spending on social programs and other things. And the big problem at this point is the federal government is spending so much that if they were to cut spending aggressively, the argument and the concern is it would hit unemployment and it would cause a recession because the federal government is such an intricate part of the economy now. That's the argument. But it's causing inflation, and it's causing deficit spending. So this year the deficit will be roughly $2 trillion. And as a result, the market is saying, ‘We're worried about the US fiscal solvency over the long run, or there's a higher risk. As a result, we're going to charge you a higher interest, 5.2% on the 30 year.’ What does this mean for the federal government? Well, today, the federal government's average cost of debt is 3.4%. That's what we're paying on interest on average on the $40 trillion of debt that the federal government has outstanding. For every 1% change in the interest rate, the US government has to pay 1.25% of GDP in excess interest each year. 1.25% of GDP in interest each year for that 1% change in the interest rate.”

David Friedberg: Higher Interest Rates Are About to Make America’s $40 Trillion Debt Problem Much Worse “The federal government has a problem because over the next 12 months they have to refinance $10 trillion of debt. That debt is coming due. Those bonds are now due. They have to pay the principal back to the bond holders, and they have to go back to the treasury market and sell more treasuries to borrow more money to refinance. So the borrowing cost now is going to climb up, and when that borrowing cost climbs up, the federal government's burn goes up and the fiscal deficit goes up. So my theory and my argument on this is: There is no action that Bessent can take that's actually going to have a meaningful effect on the long end of the curve. We have a fundamental fiscal spending problem with the federal government right now. It is very expensive now to borrow money if you're the US federal government. And the reason is persistent inflation, I would argue because of excess government spending on social programs and other things. And the big problem at this point is the federal government is spending so much that if they were to cut spending aggressively, the argument and the concern is it would hit unemployment and it would cause a recession because the federal government is such an intricate part of the economy now. That's the argument. But it's causing inflation, and it's causing deficit spending. So this year the deficit will be roughly $2 trillion. And as a result, the market is saying, ‘We're worried about the US fiscal solvency over the long run, or there's a higher risk. As a result, we're going to charge you a higher interest, 5.2% on the 30 year.’ What does this mean for the federal government? Well, today, the federal government's average cost of debt is 3.4%. That's what we're paying on interest on average on the $40 trillion of debt that the federal government has outstanding. For every 1% change in the interest rate, the US government has to pay 1.25% of GDP in excess interest each year. 1.25% of GDP in interest each year for that 1% change in the interest rate.”

The All-In Podcast

334,109 次观看 • 23 天前

🚨 SOMETHING TERRIBLE IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN RIGHT NOW!! Every government bond yield just hit its highest level in history. Japan is sitting on ¥15.3 TRILLION in bond losses. And the BOJ just hit the panic button. They're dumping $6 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries to cover the damage. If you hold any assets right now, you MUST read this: Japan has been one of the most important sources of global liquidity for decades. For years, interest rates stayed near zero. That made the yen one of the world's cheapest funding currencies. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. Then poured that money into stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world. But that trade is now coming under pressure. Japanese bonds are surging. Yields are moving higher. And money is starting to have a reason to return home. This is where things get dangerous. Because when Japanese capital comes back... Someone else has to buy what Japan is selling. → More bonds hit the market → Yields move higher → Liquidity dries up And financial conditions tighten everywhere. The U.S. Treasury has already doubled its Treasury buybacks in an attempt to stop the bleeding. A sign that even the world's largest bond market is starting to show cracks. That's how market stress spreads. Quietly at first. Then all at once. AND THIS IS NOT GOOD... Most people won't understand what's happening until markets are already collapsing. Japan's bond market is sending a warning. And the rest of the world will be next. I've spent 10+ years studying these markets. And I've seen the warning signs before most people knew what was coming. If you want to stay ahead of the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I've warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. Follow and turn on notifications. Many people will wish they had paid attention sooner.

🚨 SOMETHING TERRIBLE IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN RIGHT NOW!! Every government bond yield just hit its highest level in history. Japan is sitting on ¥15.3 TRILLION in bond losses. And the BOJ just hit the panic button. They're dumping $6 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries to cover the damage. If you hold any assets right now, you MUST read this: Japan has been one of the most important sources of global liquidity for decades. For years, interest rates stayed near zero. That made the yen one of the world's cheapest funding currencies. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. Then poured that money into stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, and markets around the world. But that trade is now coming under pressure. Japanese bonds are surging. Yields are moving higher. And money is starting to have a reason to return home. This is where things get dangerous. Because when Japanese capital comes back... Someone else has to buy what Japan is selling. → More bonds hit the market → Yields move higher → Liquidity dries up And financial conditions tighten everywhere. The U.S. Treasury has already doubled its Treasury buybacks in an attempt to stop the bleeding. A sign that even the world's largest bond market is starting to show cracks. That's how market stress spreads. Quietly at first. Then all at once. AND THIS IS NOT GOOD... Most people won't understand what's happening until markets are already collapsing. Japan's bond market is sending a warning. And the rest of the world will be next. I've spent 10+ years studying these markets. And I've seen the warning signs before most people knew what was coming. If you want to stay ahead of the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I've warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. Follow and turn on notifications. Many people will wish they had paid attention sooner.

0xNobler

48,525 次观看 • 22 天前

The passive investing thesis looks unbreakable. Buy the S&P 500. Fall asleep. Wake up a millionaire. Danielle DiMartino Booth says it breaks when the confluence hits. AI leverage cracking. Private credit cracking. Baby boomers are retiring every day and stopping their 401k contributions. New entrants to the job market are decreasing and not opening new 401k plans. "It's a real combination of the credit market conditions, demographics, and the magnitude of the bubble in the public markets." And credit spreads? They look calm. They look tight. But that calm is not what it appears to be. There was no $2 trillion fixed-income passive universe during the last financial crisis. Today there is. When redemptions hit the biggest high-yield or investment-grade bond ETFs, only the most liquid bonds get sold. The illiquid ones cannot be touched. "What you see in credit spreads is a reflection of liquidity in the biggest traded names, which is not reflective of prior cycles."

The passive investing thesis looks unbreakable. Buy the S&P 500. Fall asleep. Wake up a millionaire. Danielle DiMartino Booth says it breaks when the confluence hits. AI leverage cracking. Private credit cracking. Baby boomers are retiring every day and stopping their 401k contributions. New entrants to the job market are decreasing and not opening new 401k plans. "It's a real combination of the credit market conditions, demographics, and the magnitude of the bubble in the public markets." And credit spreads? They look calm. They look tight. But that calm is not what it appears to be. There was no $2 trillion fixed-income passive universe during the last financial crisis. Today there is. When redemptions hit the biggest high-yield or investment-grade bond ETFs, only the most liquid bonds get sold. The illiquid ones cannot be touched. "What you see in credit spreads is a reflection of liquidity in the biggest traded names, which is not reflective of prior cycles."

Monetary Metals

18,105 次观看 • 3 个月前

The rate that sets your mortgage just hit a 20 year high. Then something strange happened. The government made ONE move trying to force it back down… But did it work? Here is what almost everyone missed: There is a market bigger than the stock market. It is the market for government bonds. When the government needs money, it borrows by selling bonds. The interest it pays on those bonds is called the yield. That yield quietly sets the price of almost everything. It shapes your mortgage rate, your car loan, and your credit card. Even the value of the stocks you own. This week, that yield did something alarming. The rate on 30 year government bonds hit its highest level in almost 20 years. The last time it was this high, the year was 2007. You remember what came right after 2007. To be clear, a high yield is not a crash by itself. But it is a warning light on the dashboard of the economy. And this light had not flashed this bright in a generation. Why did this happen? The government keeps borrowing more and more money. Prices are still rising faster than anyone wants. And companies are flooding the market with their own debt. All of that competes for the same pool of money. So lenders demanded a higher and higher return. Rising yields are like a slow tax on everything you own. They make borrowing more expensive for every person and company. They pull money away from stocks. They tighten the screws quietly, in the background. Then something telling happened. The government stepped in to rescue the situation. It announced it would buy back large amounts of its own long term bonds. The goal was simple. Push that yield back down. And it worked, at least for now. The 30 year yield dropped. The dollar fell to a three month low. Gold jumped to its highest level since early June. Read that again. The government had to intervene to calm its own bond market. That is not a small thing. Here is the lesson most investors miss. The risk that wrecks you is rarely the one on the front page. It is the one building quietly while you look elsewhere. Everyone was watching stocks hit record highs. Almost nobody was watching the foundation underneath them crack. You cannot track every hidden risk in the system. No person can. There are too many moving parts. That is exactly why a rules based system matters. It reacts to what the whole market is doing, not just the headlines. It does not need you to spot the danger in advance. Surmount was built to watch the whole board for you:

The rate that sets your mortgage just hit a 20 year high. Then something strange happened. The government made ONE move trying to force it back down… But did it work? Here is what almost everyone missed: There is a market bigger than the stock market. It is the market for government bonds. When the government needs money, it borrows by selling bonds. The interest it pays on those bonds is called the yield. That yield quietly sets the price of almost everything. It shapes your mortgage rate, your car loan, and your credit card. Even the value of the stocks you own. This week, that yield did something alarming. The rate on 30 year government bonds hit its highest level in almost 20 years. The last time it was this high, the year was 2007. You remember what came right after 2007. To be clear, a high yield is not a crash by itself. But it is a warning light on the dashboard of the economy. And this light had not flashed this bright in a generation. Why did this happen? The government keeps borrowing more and more money. Prices are still rising faster than anyone wants. And companies are flooding the market with their own debt. All of that competes for the same pool of money. So lenders demanded a higher and higher return. Rising yields are like a slow tax on everything you own. They make borrowing more expensive for every person and company. They pull money away from stocks. They tighten the screws quietly, in the background. Then something telling happened. The government stepped in to rescue the situation. It announced it would buy back large amounts of its own long term bonds. The goal was simple. Push that yield back down. And it worked, at least for now. The 30 year yield dropped. The dollar fell to a three month low. Gold jumped to its highest level since early June. Read that again. The government had to intervene to calm its own bond market. That is not a small thing. Here is the lesson most investors miss. The risk that wrecks you is rarely the one on the front page. It is the one building quietly while you look elsewhere. Everyone was watching stocks hit record highs. Almost nobody was watching the foundation underneath them crack. You cannot track every hidden risk in the system. No person can. There are too many moving parts. That is exactly why a rules based system matters. It reacts to what the whole market is doing, not just the headlines. It does not need you to spot the danger in advance. Surmount was built to watch the whole board for you:

Surmount

22,352 次观看 • 1 个月前

Prof. Steve Hanke: ‘STAY AWAY from long-term US bonds, Scott Bessent has no escape from the trap he is in and has LOST CREDIBILITY.’ ‘I wouldn’t want to be holding long-term US bonds. If I was a private investor, I wouldn’t want to be holding and I’ve indicated now for months to stay away from the bond market in terms of long-term bonds… 10 years or longer, like 30 years, becauseI said they would be tanking and they have been tanking, but part of it is due to this inflation underlying problem. Increase the money supply too much and you get too much inflation. That’s one factor. Then you have what’s going on with the war in Iran, as well as the one in Ukraine, and those factors are negative for these long-term bonds. And then a third factor, you’ve got the US Secretary of Treasury Bessent who’s trying to manipulate the markets by buying and supporting these long-term bonds. So he’s buying back long-term bonds that are already outstanding, and of course that artificially props the price up and pushes the yield down on those long-term bonds, but the trick is he’s still got to finance the deficit that we’re running in the United States, which means he has to sell more of the short-term bonds. And when you sell more, the supply goes up, the price goes down, and what happens? Bingo, the yield goes up on the short-term bonds. So there’s no escape from the trap that he’s in. He’s manipulating the thing around. He’s trying to keep the interest rates artificially low on the long-term bonds, but that means he must adjust and push them up on the short end. So it’s all a loser’s game. It’s as I say, he’s trapped and he’s lost a considerable amount of credibility, I think, by trying this manipulation game that he’s in, which by the way is not working. The bond vigilantes don’t like what he’s up to, and they punished him last week by actually going against what he was doing on those long-term bonds. The long-term interest rate didn’t go down as he announced that it would, it actually went up.’ —Steve Hanke on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇

Prof. Steve Hanke: ‘STAY AWAY from long-term US bonds, Scott Bessent has no escape from the trap he is in and has LOST CREDIBILITY.’ ‘I wouldn’t want to be holding long-term US bonds. If I was a private investor, I wouldn’t want to be holding and I’ve indicated now for months to stay away from the bond market in terms of long-term bonds… 10 years or longer, like 30 years, becauseI said they would be tanking and they have been tanking, but part of it is due to this inflation underlying problem. Increase the money supply too much and you get too much inflation. That’s one factor. Then you have what’s going on with the war in Iran, as well as the one in Ukraine, and those factors are negative for these long-term bonds. And then a third factor, you’ve got the US Secretary of Treasury Bessent who’s trying to manipulate the markets by buying and supporting these long-term bonds. So he’s buying back long-term bonds that are already outstanding, and of course that artificially props the price up and pushes the yield down on those long-term bonds, but the trick is he’s still got to finance the deficit that we’re running in the United States, which means he has to sell more of the short-term bonds. And when you sell more, the supply goes up, the price goes down, and what happens? Bingo, the yield goes up on the short-term bonds. So there’s no escape from the trap that he’s in. He’s manipulating the thing around. He’s trying to keep the interest rates artificially low on the long-term bonds, but that means he must adjust and push them up on the short end. So it’s all a loser’s game. It’s as I say, he’s trapped and he’s lost a considerable amount of credibility, I think, by trying this manipulation game that he’s in, which by the way is not working. The bond vigilantes don’t like what he’s up to, and they punished him last week by actually going against what he was doing on those long-term bonds. The long-term interest rate didn’t go down as he announced that it would, it actually went up.’ —Steve Hanke on the latest episode of Going Underground Watch the full interview in the quoted post below 👇

Going Underground

14,779 次观看 • 2 天前

GLOBAL BOND MARKETS ARE BREAKING IN REAL TIME Bond yields are spiking around the world simultaneously US 10-year Treasury: 4.6%, biggest weekly jump since 2025 Japan 30-year: broke 4% for the first time since it was introduced in 1999 Japan 10-year: 2.78%, highest since May 1997 UK gilts up 15 bps in a single day on political instability The cause in the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, meaning oil stays elevated and Inflation expectations refuse to come down The Trump-Xi summit ended without progress Bond traders are pricing in stagflation instead of pricing in rate cuts This matters beyond bonds Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for governments The US has $39 trillion in debt and pays $1 trillion a year in interest Every basis point up costs the Treasury billions Polymarket now gives 66% odds that Kevin Warsh hikes rates in December Markets are still in disbelief The bigger risk is if Japanese institutional investors stop financing US Treasuries and start repatriating capital They hold $1.1 trillion in US debt When the same thing happened in August 2024, the yen carry trade unwound and global markets crashed in 72 hours Bond markets are the foundation of everything else And the foundation is moving

GLOBAL BOND MARKETS ARE BREAKING IN REAL TIME Bond yields are spiking around the world simultaneously US 10-year Treasury: 4.6%, biggest weekly jump since 2025 Japan 30-year: broke 4% for the first time since it was introduced in 1999 Japan 10-year: 2.78%, highest since May 1997 UK gilts up 15 bps in a single day on political instability The cause in the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, meaning oil stays elevated and Inflation expectations refuse to come down The Trump-Xi summit ended without progress Bond traders are pricing in stagflation instead of pricing in rate cuts This matters beyond bonds Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for governments The US has $39 trillion in debt and pays $1 trillion a year in interest Every basis point up costs the Treasury billions Polymarket now gives 66% odds that Kevin Warsh hikes rates in December Markets are still in disbelief The bigger risk is if Japanese institutional investors stop financing US Treasuries and start repatriating capital They hold $1.1 trillion in US debt When the same thing happened in August 2024, the yen carry trade unwound and global markets crashed in 72 hours Bond markets are the foundation of everything else And the foundation is moving

Leshka.eth ⛩

463,191 次观看 • 4 个月前

Bertha & Bonds 1⃣To kick off the Bertha initiative, we are moving forward with the initial order of BTC miners later this month, committing $250K–$350K USD in capital. This investment will fill approximately 30–35% of the Bertha facility, pushing $TITAN’s APR to around 20% and that’s just the beginning. 2⃣We are also introducing T-Bonds, a first-of-its-kind initiative on Cardano designed to unlock capital efficiency and accelerate ecosystem growth.👀 What Are T-Bonds? T-Bonds are like a loan from the community to the project. In return, you get a guaranteed return at bond maturity. Why This Works for TITAN? 15% of the total $TITAN supply is held in our treasury, reserved specifically to be sold gradually over time to fund investments as the token’s price grows. By combining our capital with the T-Bond raise, we aim to push the APR above 20-40%+. At that level, demand for $TITAN increases, driving the price higher. If the token price doubles as a result, our $TITAN investment treasury’s value grows from $1M to $2M. From there, we can gradually sell treasury-held $TITAN over a 12-month period, using the proceeds to repay bonds, expand mining capacity, and fund, new investments — all of which drive APR even higher and continue growing the treasury. Higher APR → More demand → Higher price → Larger treasury → More investments → Even higher APR. This is how we trigger the flywheel. Bond Terms: - 12% Fixed APR (pegged to USD value on the day), - 2.5% Bonus $TITAN airdrop, - 12-month term Bertha gets filled. Rewards go up. The flywheel spins. Bond Mint Date: -Thursday, July 24th–26th — 48 hours only. -This is a limited pilot with a hard cap. -Full details dropping next week. The success of the bonds isn’t critical for us it’s not something we need to do. We see it as an innovative concept that makes sense given our treasury model and adds value, but there's no pressure. Whether we scale with bonds or without them, the trajectory remains the same. Bonds simply accelerate the process and introduce a fresh mechanism into the ecosystem that could be tied to our ATLAS DeFi platform in the future. This is how TITANS win.

Bertha & Bonds 1⃣To kick off the Bertha initiative, we are moving forward with the initial order of BTC miners later this month, committing $250K–$350K USD in capital. This investment will fill approximately 30–35% of the Bertha facility, pushing $TITAN’s APR to around 20% and that’s just the beginning. 2⃣We are also introducing T-Bonds, a first-of-its-kind initiative on Cardano designed to unlock capital efficiency and accelerate ecosystem growth.👀 What Are T-Bonds? T-Bonds are like a loan from the community to the project. In return, you get a guaranteed return at bond maturity. Why This Works for TITAN? 15% of the total $TITAN supply is held in our treasury, reserved specifically to be sold gradually over time to fund investments as the token’s price grows. By combining our capital with the T-Bond raise, we aim to push the APR above 20-40%+. At that level, demand for $TITAN increases, driving the price higher. If the token price doubles as a result, our $TITAN investment treasury’s value grows from $1M to $2M. From there, we can gradually sell treasury-held $TITAN over a 12-month period, using the proceeds to repay bonds, expand mining capacity, and fund, new investments — all of which drive APR even higher and continue growing the treasury. Higher APR → More demand → Higher price → Larger treasury → More investments → Even higher APR. This is how we trigger the flywheel. Bond Terms: - 12% Fixed APR (pegged to USD value on the day), - 2.5% Bonus $TITAN airdrop, - 12-month term Bertha gets filled. Rewards go up. The flywheel spins. Bond Mint Date: -Thursday, July 24th–26th — 48 hours only. -This is a limited pilot with a hard cap. -Full details dropping next week. The success of the bonds isn’t critical for us it’s not something we need to do. We see it as an innovative concept that makes sense given our treasury model and adds value, but there's no pressure. Whether we scale with bonds or without them, the trajectory remains the same. Bonds simply accelerate the process and introduce a fresh mechanism into the ecosystem that could be tied to our ATLAS DeFi platform in the future. This is how TITANS win.

House Of Titans

15,443 次观看 • 1 年前

Michael Burry Sees The Financial System Running Out of Time The long end of the Treasury market is where several unresolved stresses are colliding. A 30 year yield above 5% reflects inflation uncertainty, heavy federal borrowing and weaker demand for duration. When the economy is deteriorating but long yields refuse to fall, the usual recessionary relief valve is failing. Slower growth is not producing cheaper capital because inflation volatility and debt supply are overpowering it. Burry does not mention 2007, but the comparison is useful. The 30 year yield stayed above 5% for 50 days that year, versus 27 days already in 2026. That does not mean another identical housing crisis. It shows how prolonged high rates corrode leveraged balance sheets. In 2007 the leverage sat mainly in housing and banks. Today it is spread across private equity, private credit, commercial property and data centers. AI Has Become A Debt Story The AI buildout increasingly relies on bonds, leases, project finance and private credit. Burry is not saying major technology companies are about to default. He is saying AI is creating another huge source of long duration debt just as the Treasury must finance persistent deficits. Technology companies and the government are competing for many of the same buyers. AI also consumes electricity, natural gas, copper and grid capacity. The market sees future productivity. Burry is asking whether AI first becomes an inflation and leverage problem. Inflation Volatility , Oil And The Basis Trade Bond investors care not only about current inflation but how predictable it will be over decades. When CPI components move violently, the headline can look contained while the system underneath becomes unstable. Investors then demand a larger term premium. Oil near $100 intensifies that problem. The shock spreads through transportation, agriculture, fertilizer and shipping. Businesses face higher costs while households lose purchasing power. The basis trade depends on hedge funds buying cash Treasuries, shorting futures and financing them through repo. The return is tiny, so it requires enormous leverage and stable funding. If funding costs or volatility rise, funds may unwind by selling cash bonds. Burry is asking who absorbs the next wave of Treasury and AI debt if a major buyer is retreating. PE and PC is private equity and private credit. Holding their breath means extending maturities, delaying exits and postponing writedowns. Private assets can hide deterioration longer, but accounting flexibility does not create cash flow. The sequence Burry appears to see • Oil and inflation volatility keep long yields elevated • Treasury and AI borrowing compete for capital • The basis trade loses capacity • Private markets can no longer delay recognition • Credit spreads widen and valuations reset • High multiple equities finally react • A credit event creates demand destruction • Only then do Treasuries rally and the Fed cut aggressively Burry can be bearish on long bonds now while still expecting them to rally later in a crisis. The lower rates needed to validate existing prices may not arrive until something breaks.

Michael Burry Sees The Financial System Running Out of Time The long end of the Treasury market is where several unresolved stresses are colliding. A 30 year yield above 5% reflects inflation uncertainty, heavy federal borrowing and weaker demand for duration. When the economy is deteriorating but long yields refuse to fall, the usual recessionary relief valve is failing. Slower growth is not producing cheaper capital because inflation volatility and debt supply are overpowering it. Burry does not mention 2007, but the comparison is useful. The 30 year yield stayed above 5% for 50 days that year, versus 27 days already in 2026. That does not mean another identical housing crisis. It shows how prolonged high rates corrode leveraged balance sheets. In 2007 the leverage sat mainly in housing and banks. Today it is spread across private equity, private credit, commercial property and data centers. AI Has Become A Debt Story The AI buildout increasingly relies on bonds, leases, project finance and private credit. Burry is not saying major technology companies are about to default. He is saying AI is creating another huge source of long duration debt just as the Treasury must finance persistent deficits. Technology companies and the government are competing for many of the same buyers. AI also consumes electricity, natural gas, copper and grid capacity. The market sees future productivity. Burry is asking whether AI first becomes an inflation and leverage problem. Inflation Volatility , Oil And The Basis Trade Bond investors care not only about current inflation but how predictable it will be over decades. When CPI components move violently, the headline can look contained while the system underneath becomes unstable. Investors then demand a larger term premium. Oil near $100 intensifies that problem. The shock spreads through transportation, agriculture, fertilizer and shipping. Businesses face higher costs while households lose purchasing power. The basis trade depends on hedge funds buying cash Treasuries, shorting futures and financing them through repo. The return is tiny, so it requires enormous leverage and stable funding. If funding costs or volatility rise, funds may unwind by selling cash bonds. Burry is asking who absorbs the next wave of Treasury and AI debt if a major buyer is retreating. PE and PC is private equity and private credit. Holding their breath means extending maturities, delaying exits and postponing writedowns. Private assets can hide deterioration longer, but accounting flexibility does not create cash flow. The sequence Burry appears to see • Oil and inflation volatility keep long yields elevated • Treasury and AI borrowing compete for capital • The basis trade loses capacity • Private markets can no longer delay recognition • Credit spreads widen and valuations reset • High multiple equities finally react • A credit event creates demand destruction • Only then do Treasuries rally and the Fed cut aggressively Burry can be bearish on long bonds now while still expecting them to rally later in a crisis. The lower rates needed to validate existing prices may not arrive until something breaks.

EndGame Macro

102,008 次观看 • 2 个月前

𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁, 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆, 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲, 𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲. Paul Kedrosky argues this is the first bubble with all four elements at once. We get into: → Tokens as the fastest-deflating commodity in modern economic history → Why 80% annual price declines force the labs to grow 400% a year just to hold revenue flat → Why data center-related paper hitting 15-18% of the investment grade market should worry bond investors → The coming IPO wave that could out-issue every post-WWII IPO combined → Why he can't tell frontier models apart in a blind test, and neither can you → What it means that AI is now more than half of US GDP growth

𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗯𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁, 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆, 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲, 𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲. Paul Kedrosky argues this is the first bubble with all four elements at once. We get into: → Tokens as the fastest-deflating commodity in modern economic history → Why 80% annual price declines force the labs to grow 400% a year just to hold revenue flat → Why data center-related paper hitting 15-18% of the investment grade market should worry bond investors → The coming IPO wave that could out-issue every post-WWII IPO combined → Why he can't tell frontier models apart in a blind test, and neither can you → What it means that AI is now more than half of US GDP growth

Meb Faber

57,914 次观看 • 26 天前

Imagine you walk into a bank. You make $5 trillion a year but you spend $7 trillion. You're $36 trillion in debt with another $125 trillion in obligations you haven't funded. And then you ask them to lend you money for 10 years at 4.4%. They would laugh you out of the building. Yet that is EXACTLY what the United States government is asking the bond market to accept right now. And somehow, for now, the bond market keeps saying yes. Your "safe" 40% bond allocation was supposed to be the thing that protects you. The hedge, the ballast, the part of your portfolio that goes up when everything else goes down. Instead it's been dead weight for 4 consecutive years while inflation eats what's left of your purchasing power. The 60/40 portfolio was built for a deflationary world where recessions were the primary risk and bonds were the cure. But we are NOT in that world anymore. Inflation is sticky above 3% and rising. Energy prices are heading higher. Government spending is completely out of control. And global bond markets are starting to crack, with Japanese yields at 30-year highs and German bunds at levels not seen in two decades. US yields have been remarkably calm by comparison. That calm won't last though... So the most important question facing every investor right now is simple: What do you do with the income side of your portfolio when the traditional answer no longer works? That's exactly what we set out to answer. And on May 20th, I'm bringing together 14 of the sharpest minds in the industry to tackle it head on. The Best Income Ideas Online Summit. Produced in collaboration with Seeking Alpha. Michael Howell, Luke Gromen, David Hay, and Jay Pelosky are setting the macro table. Then we're pivoting to actionable income ideas from specialists whose track records are extraordinary. We're talking 19%, 34% annualized returns. Alpha Picks up ~400% since inception versus 90% for the S&P. The guy behind Alpha Picks, Steven Cress, will be presenting as well. So the entire focus is uncorrelated sources of income that protect against inflation and replace what bonds can no longer deliver. Yield you can actually live on, dividends that grow, and income streams that aren't correlated to the same 7 AI stocks everyone else is crowded into. Our March summit drew over 800 attendees and the ideas have been compounding ever since. This one will be just as serious. If you're serious about protecting your money, you cannot afford to miss this. And all of this for $99. I used to pay thousands to sit in a room with people half this good when I was running hedge funds. You will never find a better conference for the money. Period. May 20th. Online. Replays available. Join us today:

Imagine you walk into a bank. You make $5 trillion a year but you spend $7 trillion. You're $36 trillion in debt with another $125 trillion in obligations you haven't funded. And then you ask them to lend you money for 10 years at 4.4%. They would laugh you out of the building. Yet that is EXACTLY what the United States government is asking the bond market to accept right now. And somehow, for now, the bond market keeps saying yes. Your "safe" 40% bond allocation was supposed to be the thing that protects you. The hedge, the ballast, the part of your portfolio that goes up when everything else goes down. Instead it's been dead weight for 4 consecutive years while inflation eats what's left of your purchasing power. The 60/40 portfolio was built for a deflationary world where recessions were the primary risk and bonds were the cure. But we are NOT in that world anymore. Inflation is sticky above 3% and rising. Energy prices are heading higher. Government spending is completely out of control. And global bond markets are starting to crack, with Japanese yields at 30-year highs and German bunds at levels not seen in two decades. US yields have been remarkably calm by comparison. That calm won't last though... So the most important question facing every investor right now is simple: What do you do with the income side of your portfolio when the traditional answer no longer works? That's exactly what we set out to answer. And on May 20th, I'm bringing together 14 of the sharpest minds in the industry to tackle it head on. The Best Income Ideas Online Summit. Produced in collaboration with Seeking Alpha. Michael Howell, Luke Gromen, David Hay, and Jay Pelosky are setting the macro table. Then we're pivoting to actionable income ideas from specialists whose track records are extraordinary. We're talking 19%, 34% annualized returns. Alpha Picks up ~400% since inception versus 90% for the S&P. The guy behind Alpha Picks, Steven Cress, will be presenting as well. So the entire focus is uncorrelated sources of income that protect against inflation and replace what bonds can no longer deliver. Yield you can actually live on, dividends that grow, and income streams that aren't correlated to the same 7 AI stocks everyone else is crowded into. Our March summit drew over 800 attendees and the ideas have been compounding ever since. This one will be just as serious. If you're serious about protecting your money, you cannot afford to miss this. And all of this for $99. I used to pay thousands to sit in a room with people half this good when I was running hedge funds. You will never find a better conference for the money. Period. May 20th. Online. Replays available. Join us today:

George Noble

78,260 次观看 • 4 个月前

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW Treasury yields just surged from 3.9% to 4.3% in MINUTES. Then it happened again. And again. THREE TIMES IN A ROW. The U.S. bond market is collapsing in real time. And that’s not random... Someone is dumping MASSIVE amounts of U.S. Treasuries onto the market. And here’s what matters: When bonds get dumped, yields explode higher. That’s how the bond market works. Which means whoever sold didn’t care about getting the best price. They wanted OUT immediately. That’s the signal. And most people don’t understand how serious that is. The Treasury market is the foundation of the entire financial system. It’s where central banks park reserves. It’s where foreign governments store capital. It’s where the largest institutions on earth hide liquidity. Retail does NOT move the 2yr yield like this. Not even close. This was institutional size. The kind of size that forces the market to react. And that creates one question: Who is exiting? A foreign government reducing exposure. A forced liquidation. A systemic event behind the scenes. One thing is certain: This was NOT normal. And markets always reveal the truth before headlines do. That’s why this week matters. Because when bonds move first… Everything else follows. → Stocks → Currencies → Risk assets → Bitcoin and crypto All of it. The market is sending a message. And ignoring it will be expensive. Watch closely. The next major move is already starting. Follow and turn notifications on before it's too late. You do NOT want to miss what happens next.

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW Treasury yields just surged from 3.9% to 4.3% in MINUTES. Then it happened again. And again. THREE TIMES IN A ROW. The U.S. bond market is collapsing in real time. And that’s not random... Someone is dumping MASSIVE amounts of U.S. Treasuries onto the market. And here’s what matters: When bonds get dumped, yields explode higher. That’s how the bond market works. Which means whoever sold didn’t care about getting the best price. They wanted OUT immediately. That’s the signal. And most people don’t understand how serious that is. The Treasury market is the foundation of the entire financial system. It’s where central banks park reserves. It’s where foreign governments store capital. It’s where the largest institutions on earth hide liquidity. Retail does NOT move the 2yr yield like this. Not even close. This was institutional size. The kind of size that forces the market to react. And that creates one question: Who is exiting? A foreign government reducing exposure. A forced liquidation. A systemic event behind the scenes. One thing is certain: This was NOT normal. And markets always reveal the truth before headlines do. That’s why this week matters. Because when bonds move first… Everything else follows. → Stocks → Currencies → Risk assets → Bitcoin and crypto All of it. The market is sending a message. And ignoring it will be expensive. Watch closely. The next major move is already starting. Follow and turn notifications on before it's too late. You do NOT want to miss what happens next.

0xNobler

49,889 次观看 • 4 个月前

The world's safest bonds are suddenly not acting safe. The 30-year Treasury just hit its highest yield since 2007. Germany, France, and Japan are seeing the same thing. Yet the stock market is partying near record highs... A government bond is a loan you make to a country. The yield is the interest that country pays you. When the yield jumps, it means lenders are nervous. They are demanding more to hold that debt. This is not one country having a bad week. Long-term rates are spiking all over the world. Japan just hit a 30-year high. Germany hit its highest level since 2011. France hit levels not seen since 2008. The United States is leading the pack. The 30-year US yield touched 5.3% this week. The last time it was this high was 2007. Now look at what makes this so strange. The economy has actually been slowing down. Jobs data has cooled off. Retail sales just fell. That should push interest rates lower, not higher. Instead they keep climbing. So why are rates rising anyway? The bond market is scared of something bigger. The US government is drowning in debt. That pile is about to cross $40 trillion. In July alone the deficit hit $432 billion. The government keeps borrowing more every month. So lenders are demanding more to keep lending. Higher rates make that debt even harder to carry. Lending to a government once felt risk-free. That assumption is quietly breaking. Recent debt auctions tell the same story. The latest 30-year sale drew its highest yield since 2001. Buyers are forcing the government to pay up. They want more to lend for thirty long years. Oil is making all of this worse. It just pushed back above $90 a barrel. That feeds straight into inflation fears. And inflation is the enemy of every bond. There is one more warning sign: The biggest lenders are starting to walk away. China, Japan, and the UK all cut their holdings. Someone still has to buy all that new debt. Fewer buyers means even higher rates. Now come back to the stock market. It is still sitting near record highs. Wall Street has a comforting story for this. Strong earnings will power right through it. Maybe they will. But the bond market is not buying that story. Two markets are telling opposite things. Stocks say the party keeps going. Bonds say the ground is shifting underneath. When they disagree this sharply, bonds usually win. The bond market is bigger and harder to fool. It sets the cost of money for everyone. Higher yields quietly make every stock worth less. This is not just a Wall Street problem. These same yields set your mortgage and car loan. A new car loan now runs about 7%. When the government pays more, so do you. Retail watched the stock market. The bond market wrote the real story. That's the whole game. Surmount builds automated strategies that follow the data, not the noise. Start for free and let the signals lead.

The world's safest bonds are suddenly not acting safe. The 30-year Treasury just hit its highest yield since 2007. Germany, France, and Japan are seeing the same thing. Yet the stock market is partying near record highs... A government bond is a loan you make to a country. The yield is the interest that country pays you. When the yield jumps, it means lenders are nervous. They are demanding more to hold that debt. This is not one country having a bad week. Long-term rates are spiking all over the world. Japan just hit a 30-year high. Germany hit its highest level since 2011. France hit levels not seen since 2008. The United States is leading the pack. The 30-year US yield touched 5.3% this week. The last time it was this high was 2007. Now look at what makes this so strange. The economy has actually been slowing down. Jobs data has cooled off. Retail sales just fell. That should push interest rates lower, not higher. Instead they keep climbing. So why are rates rising anyway? The bond market is scared of something bigger. The US government is drowning in debt. That pile is about to cross $40 trillion. In July alone the deficit hit $432 billion. The government keeps borrowing more every month. So lenders are demanding more to keep lending. Higher rates make that debt even harder to carry. Lending to a government once felt risk-free. That assumption is quietly breaking. Recent debt auctions tell the same story. The latest 30-year sale drew its highest yield since 2001. Buyers are forcing the government to pay up. They want more to lend for thirty long years. Oil is making all of this worse. It just pushed back above $90 a barrel. That feeds straight into inflation fears. And inflation is the enemy of every bond. There is one more warning sign: The biggest lenders are starting to walk away. China, Japan, and the UK all cut their holdings. Someone still has to buy all that new debt. Fewer buyers means even higher rates. Now come back to the stock market. It is still sitting near record highs. Wall Street has a comforting story for this. Strong earnings will power right through it. Maybe they will. But the bond market is not buying that story. Two markets are telling opposite things. Stocks say the party keeps going. Bonds say the ground is shifting underneath. When they disagree this sharply, bonds usually win. The bond market is bigger and harder to fool. It sets the cost of money for everyone. Higher yields quietly make every stock worth less. This is not just a Wall Street problem. These same yields set your mortgage and car loan. A new car loan now runs about 7%. When the government pays more, so do you. Retail watched the stock market. The bond market wrote the real story. That's the whole game. Surmount builds automated strategies that follow the data, not the noise. Start for free and let the signals lead.

Logan Weaver

11,838 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 NOW: President Trump just WENT OFF on the Federal Reserve possibly RAISING interest rates and the market going DOWN despite an incredible jobs report "Every time we do well, the stupid people want to immediately stop this Great Upward Momentum! GROWTH DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION!" 47 says every interest rate point costs $650 BILLION 🤯 "How crazy is this? We just got GREAT Numbers on Jobs, the Market should go UP, because our Credit and Economy are better but, as always, for the past 25 years, the Stock Market goes DOWN, because we’re living under False Reality that if things are good, you’ve got to “KILL IT” because of a “fear” of Inflation. It should be the opposite." "We should be doing GDP of 15 and 20%, not 2, 3, and 4%, and America should become Far Greater Financially than it is right now. Our Debt would be paid off, and all of these other things would happen." "Remember, every point in the Interest Rate costs the U.S. 650 Billion Dollars a year. We should pay the Lowest Interest Rates in the World because we make everything run, and give otherwise failed countries Great Economic Wealth!" 🇺🇸

🚨 NOW: President Trump just WENT OFF on the Federal Reserve possibly RAISING interest rates and the market going DOWN despite an incredible jobs report "Every time we do well, the stupid people want to immediately stop this Great Upward Momentum! GROWTH DOES NOT CAUSE INFLATION!" 47 says every interest rate point costs $650 BILLION 🤯 "How crazy is this? We just got GREAT Numbers on Jobs, the Market should go UP, because our Credit and Economy are better but, as always, for the past 25 years, the Stock Market goes DOWN, because we’re living under False Reality that if things are good, you’ve got to “KILL IT” because of a “fear” of Inflation. It should be the opposite." "We should be doing GDP of 15 and 20%, not 2, 3, and 4%, and America should become Far Greater Financially than it is right now. Our Debt would be paid off, and all of these other things would happen." "Remember, every point in the Interest Rate costs the U.S. 650 Billion Dollars a year. We should pay the Lowest Interest Rates in the World because we make everything run, and give otherwise failed countries Great Economic Wealth!" 🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

63,544 次观看 • 18 天前

Paul Tudor Jones called Elon Musk "the poster child for the French Revolution" - then said "grow our way out by cutting taxes? complete bullshit, the bond market will revolt" this is the most legendary macro trader explaining why America's debt will end in default, why AI experts think there's a 5% chance it ends humanity, and how he's traded through every crash since 1976 "Elon looks a thousand years in the future with space travel, but his governance goes back a thousand years. very tribal. he's going to take his net worth from $250 billion to $500 billion at the expense of millions of knowledge workers" "this year the US Treasury is bringing $2.8 trillion of debt to market. by 2050 we'll have 250% debt to GDP. well before then we'll have lost our reserve currency status. we will clearly have a debt default" "58% of AI experts said there's a 5% chance AI could end humanity. how do you risk manage a 5% chance of the end of humanity? no futures contracts for that" "price charts never lie. I've seen many people confuse being right fundamentally with making money. you can be right fundamentally and absolutely lose your shirt and go bankrupt" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Paul Tudor Jones called Elon Musk "the poster child for the French Revolution" - then said "grow our way out by cutting taxes? complete bullshit, the bond market will revolt" this is the most legendary macro trader explaining why America's debt will end in default, why AI experts think there's a 5% chance it ends humanity, and how he's traded through every crash since 1976 "Elon looks a thousand years in the future with space travel, but his governance goes back a thousand years. very tribal. he's going to take his net worth from $250 billion to $500 billion at the expense of millions of knowledge workers" "this year the US Treasury is bringing $2.8 trillion of debt to market. by 2050 we'll have 250% debt to GDP. well before then we'll have lost our reserve currency status. we will clearly have a debt default" "58% of AI experts said there's a 5% chance AI could end humanity. how do you risk manage a 5% chance of the end of humanity? no futures contracts for that" "price charts never lie. I've seen many people confuse being right fundamentally with making money. you can be right fundamentally and absolutely lose your shirt and go bankrupt" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

788,893 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Japan just hit the panic button. They will dump OVER $6 TRILLION of foreign securities, mostly U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and ETFs. If you hold any assets right now, you MUST be prepared for the biggest sell-off of the year: The BOJ is moving capital back into Japan. And the biggest carry trade in history is starting to unwind... This is NOT normal. Here's what's really happening: For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. That made the yen the cheapest funding currency in the world. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. And invested that money into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, crypto, and markets across the globe. That trade is now breaking. Japan is dealing with soaring debt. A rapidly aging population. Massive pension obligations. And years of pressure from a weak yen. Now policymakers want that capital to come home. By any means necessary. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said pension funds, including GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, should make substantially larger investments in Japanese assets instead of foreign ones. GPIF alone manages around $1.8 trillion. Hundreds of billions of dollars are now at the center of this shift. Japanese investors have already sold tens of billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasuries this year. And the Bank of Japan's latest rate hike only gives investors another reason to keep money at home. This is the Reverse Carry Trade. And it's one of the biggest liquidity risks in the world. Because when Japanese money comes home... Someone else has to buy what Japan is selling. More Treasuries hit the market. Bond yields move higher. Liquidity dries up. And financial conditions tighten everywhere. That's how market stress spreads. Quietly at first. Then all at once. After decades of financing global markets... Japan is starting to finance itself. And that changes everything. More volatility. Less liquidity. That's not a good combination. Pay attention. Most people won't realize why markets are collapsing until it's already happening. I’ve studied markets for over a decade and called nearly every major top and bottom. If you want to survive the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! Japan just hit the panic button. They will dump OVER $6 TRILLION of foreign securities, mostly U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and ETFs. If you hold any assets right now, you MUST be prepared for the biggest sell-off of the year: The BOJ is moving capital back into Japan. And the biggest carry trade in history is starting to unwind... This is NOT normal. Here's what's really happening: For decades, Japan kept interest rates near zero. That made the yen the cheapest funding currency in the world. Investors borrowed trillions of yen. And invested that money into U.S. Treasuries, stocks, real estate, crypto, and markets across the globe. That trade is now breaking. Japan is dealing with soaring debt. A rapidly aging population. Massive pension obligations. And years of pressure from a weak yen. Now policymakers want that capital to come home. By any means necessary. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said pension funds, including GPIF, the world's largest pension fund, should make substantially larger investments in Japanese assets instead of foreign ones. GPIF alone manages around $1.8 trillion. Hundreds of billions of dollars are now at the center of this shift. Japanese investors have already sold tens of billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasuries this year. And the Bank of Japan's latest rate hike only gives investors another reason to keep money at home. This is the Reverse Carry Trade. And it's one of the biggest liquidity risks in the world. Because when Japanese money comes home... Someone else has to buy what Japan is selling. More Treasuries hit the market. Bond yields move higher. Liquidity dries up. And financial conditions tighten everywhere. That's how market stress spreads. Quietly at first. Then all at once. After decades of financing global markets... Japan is starting to finance itself. And that changes everything. More volatility. Less liquidity. That's not a good combination. Pay attention. Most people won't realize why markets are collapsing until it's already happening. I’ve studied markets for over a decade and called nearly every major top and bottom. If you want to survive the 2026 cycle, follow and turn notifications on. I warned you before. And I'll warn you again soon. A lot of people will wish they paid attention earlier.

0xNobler

1,628,633 次观看 • 2 个月前

8-28-26 The Bond Market Is Setting Up For A Massive Short Squeeze $TLT $BND The bond market may be building one of its most interesting contrarian setups — not simply because inflation and wage growth are declining, but because positioning has become extremely stretched. There is currently a massive short position against Treasury bonds, much of it tied to leveraged hedge funds running the basis trade. These funds attempt to capture small pricing differences between Treasury securities and futures, often using significant leverage and short Treasury futures as a hedge. That creates the potential for a powerful unwind. If an event causes Treasury yields to drop sharply, those leveraged short positions could come under pressure. Hedge funds would then be forced to cover their shorts, which means buying bonds. That could create a self-reinforcing cycle: yields fall sharply → bond prices rise → Treasury shorts come under pressure → hedge funds cover → bond prices rise further → yields fall even more → additional shorts are forced to cover. Goldman Sachs has highlighted similar dynamics in its conditional projections for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury markets. This is why the bond opportunity right now isn't necessarily about making a long-term call that yields have peaked forever. It's about positioning, leverage and the potential mechanics of forced short covering. Bonds are already extremely stretched to the downside. If the basis trade begins to unwind, there could be substantial upside in Treasuries as shorts rush to cover. But there is an important catch: this needs a catalyst. If yields simply drift gradually lower, it may not create enough pressure to force hedge funds out of their positions. The market likely needs an event that causes yields to fall sharply enough to trigger the initial wave of short covering. Once that happens, leverage could amplify the move dramatically. So the setup is there, but patience matters. This isn't necessarily a trade that happens tomorrow. The key is watching for a sharp move lower in yields that begins forcing leveraged Treasury shorts to unwind. If that trigger arrives, what starts as a normal bond rally could quickly turn into a much larger short squeeze. Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors

8-28-26 The Bond Market Is Setting Up For A Massive Short Squeeze $TLT $BND The bond market may be building one of its most interesting contrarian setups — not simply because inflation and wage growth are declining, but because positioning has become extremely stretched. There is currently a massive short position against Treasury bonds, much of it tied to leveraged hedge funds running the basis trade. These funds attempt to capture small pricing differences between Treasury securities and futures, often using significant leverage and short Treasury futures as a hedge. That creates the potential for a powerful unwind. If an event causes Treasury yields to drop sharply, those leveraged short positions could come under pressure. Hedge funds would then be forced to cover their shorts, which means buying bonds. That could create a self-reinforcing cycle: yields fall sharply → bond prices rise → Treasury shorts come under pressure → hedge funds cover → bond prices rise further → yields fall even more → additional shorts are forced to cover. Goldman Sachs has highlighted similar dynamics in its conditional projections for the 10-year and 30-year Treasury markets. This is why the bond opportunity right now isn't necessarily about making a long-term call that yields have peaked forever. It's about positioning, leverage and the potential mechanics of forced short covering. Bonds are already extremely stretched to the downside. If the basis trade begins to unwind, there could be substantial upside in Treasuries as shorts rush to cover. But there is an important catch: this needs a catalyst. If yields simply drift gradually lower, it may not create enough pressure to force hedge funds out of their positions. The market likely needs an event that causes yields to fall sharply enough to trigger the initial wave of short covering. Once that happens, leverage could amplify the move dramatically. So the setup is there, but patience matters. This isn't necessarily a trade that happens tomorrow. The key is watching for a sharp move lower in yields that begins forcing leveraged Treasury shorts to unwind. If that trigger arrives, what starts as a normal bond rally could quickly turn into a much larger short squeeze. Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors

Lance Roberts

18,354 次观看 • 25 天前

The whole economy is essentially running on one giant credit card. Governments are locked into a debt cycle they cant get out of... nothing ever gets paid back. When the debt comes due they roll it into new debt, and the interest gets paid with more borrowing. One credit card paying off the other. The only real way out is growth. But you cant grow when your population is shrinking. Fewer working people means less growth, so GDP never rises fast enough to catch up with the debt. So how does the bill get paid? Liquidity. Nobody in the system is allowed to default, so the debt is funded by debasing the currency. This is my Everything Code framework. The debt can't stop, so the debasement can't stop either, and every asset price is downstream of that.

The whole economy is essentially running on one giant credit card. Governments are locked into a debt cycle they cant get out of... nothing ever gets paid back. When the debt comes due they roll it into new debt, and the interest gets paid with more borrowing. One credit card paying off the other. The only real way out is growth. But you cant grow when your population is shrinking. Fewer working people means less growth, so GDP never rises fast enough to catch up with the debt. So how does the bill get paid? Liquidity. Nobody in the system is allowed to default, so the debt is funded by debasing the currency. This is my Everything Code framework. The debt can't stop, so the debasement can't stop either, and every asset price is downstream of that.

Raoul Pal

102,860 次观看 • 8 天前