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𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗿𝗵𝘆𝘁𝗵𝗺 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀? Finaeon's Bryan Taylor lays out a 30-year cycle running through the last century of US market returns: • 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗲-𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀: 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, 2010s • 𝗣𝗼𝗼𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗲𝘀: 1940s, 1970s, 2000s (two vicious bear markets) • 𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻... show more

Meb Faber

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179,347 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

Новости и политика Образование Финансы

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🌍𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 — 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲! Speaking at the Georgia State University Andrew Young School in the United States, during the MandelaWshFellowship, I carried with me the weight of responsibility and generational urgency for Africa’s future — 𝗮 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁. ◼️𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: The real ROI lies in co-creation. Africa is not just the next frontier — 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗰𝗼-𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟭𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗿𝘆. From market stalls transforming into data hubs to farms evolving into predictive engines, young African pioneers are not only reimagining AI’s potential — they are engineering blueprints the world will follow. Partner with us. Invest in our talent pipelines. Scale our homegrown breakthroughs. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁. ◼️𝗧𝗼 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀: Your canvas is the world. Code with purpose. Build with vision. Lead with audacity. Scale your vision globally. The world isn’t waiting 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂 —it’s waiting 𝗼𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂. Don’t catch up—leap ahead. Define what’s next. This is the future we are building at Otic Group. Our 𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀 is simple: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘂𝘀. Our work isn't about importing solutions; it's about unlocking that innate brilliance. Do that, and you don't just change a market—you change the century!

🌍𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗜𝘀 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗪𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 — 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲! Speaking at the Georgia State University Andrew Young School in the United States, during the MandelaWshFellowship, I carried with me the weight of responsibility and generational urgency for Africa’s future — 𝗮 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝘁. ◼️𝗧𝗼 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: The real ROI lies in co-creation. Africa is not just the next frontier — 𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗰𝗼-𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟭𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗿𝘆. From market stalls transforming into data hubs to farms evolving into predictive engines, young African pioneers are not only reimagining AI’s potential — they are engineering blueprints the world will follow. Partner with us. Invest in our talent pipelines. Scale our homegrown breakthroughs. 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁. ◼️𝗧𝗼 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀: Your canvas is the world. Code with purpose. Build with vision. Lead with audacity. Scale your vision globally. The world isn’t waiting 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂 —it’s waiting 𝗼𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂. Don’t catch up—leap ahead. Define what’s next. This is the future we are building at Otic Group. Our 𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘀 is simple: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘂𝘀. Our work isn't about importing solutions; it's about unlocking that innate brilliance. Do that, and you don't just change a market—you change the century!

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How to remain profitable in both bear and bull markets? Here's what Ansem has to say "The way you last long-term in bull markets and bear markets, I'll say two things." "Portfolio allocation: You don't want to be 100% in the riskiest altcoins all the time. You want to have like 70% of your portfolio in safer things." "The safer assets for me is Solana $SOL, Coinbase stock $COIN, Bitcoin $BTC...... I'm confident those long-term are going to do well." "With the other 30%, that's my degen part. Perps, on-chain stuff, microcaps, memes... when you hit on one of those big plays, you roll that back into your safer portfolio." "Market timing: You need high time-frame indicators or signals for when you want to get out of the market and when you want to get in." "If you want to read a book on TA, a good book is Technical Analysis of Financial Markets by John Murphy. That’ll give you your base layer."

Fibonacci 🥷

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SHORT POST: Time for contra #SIPs? Since SIP has become the new LIC. A herd behavior Quoting from the movie “Drishyam 2” “Sawaal ye nahin hai ke aapke ankhoon ke saamne kya hai. Sawaal ye hai ki aap dekh kya rahe hain ? “ #FIIs don’t matter anymore in Indian markets as they hold just 15% of market now. However, FIIs are speaking with their money. They’re selling. They see these prices as an opportunity to exit. But the focus on FIIs is a distraction. With 85% of Indian markets held by domestic money, the valuation is purely a function of how domestic investors value India. It is also a function of fund flows & your SIPs. Indian markets have capital controls. So money can’t freely invest outside. This makes the market overvalued compared to other developed peers like UK, Korea, Japan, etc where investors don’t have such restrictions. Promotor holdings have dropped from 48% to 40% in last few years. This should make investors think. While you’re buying, the owners are selling. Why ? Even the erstwhile US registered firms are now registering in India to list on #NSE. It’s not out of patriotism. It is because India is now listing the most expensively priced #IPOs. Everyone wants that. Real money is made by going against the herd. #SIPs are now a popular herd strategy. Hypothetical SIP works as nobody was doing that before. Now that everyone does that, it may not work anymore. A herd strategy doesn’t make money. Popular strategy becomes a #LIC. A generation invested there building dream castles. Nothing happened. These policies provided 5% returns when FDs were at 15% interest. SIPs are being used to buy expensive new #IPOs that is being leveraged by private equity players for smarter exits. This strategy can never make money for retail. Everyone is trying to time the listings here. Isn’t it fair for the investors also to “time the SIPs”?. Five years later, probably by 2030, most of us would realize that SIPs at these high valuations were poor investments. They are unlikely to provide the 15% to 25% returns that most are secretly plugging into their excel sheets. It has not worked anywhere outside the US market. How are you so sure? What will work is being smart about the strategy. Stop SIPs when markets are expensive & do a FD SIP. But when ,markets drop 20% or more, pull the funds into equity. This could be the only way to make more than 12% to 15% returns. It’s not for everyone but this is the only strategy. FIIs are timing. Promotors are timing. IPOs are timing. Everyone is timing the markets. Why shouldn’t you do the same?

SHORT POST: Time for contra #SIPs? Since SIP has become the new LIC. A herd behavior Quoting from the movie “Drishyam 2” “Sawaal ye nahin hai ke aapke ankhoon ke saamne kya hai. Sawaal ye hai ki aap dekh kya rahe hain ? “ #FIIs don’t matter anymore in Indian markets as they hold just 15% of market now. However, FIIs are speaking with their money. They’re selling. They see these prices as an opportunity to exit. But the focus on FIIs is a distraction. With 85% of Indian markets held by domestic money, the valuation is purely a function of how domestic investors value India. It is also a function of fund flows & your SIPs. Indian markets have capital controls. So money can’t freely invest outside. This makes the market overvalued compared to other developed peers like UK, Korea, Japan, etc where investors don’t have such restrictions. Promotor holdings have dropped from 48% to 40% in last few years. This should make investors think. While you’re buying, the owners are selling. Why ? Even the erstwhile US registered firms are now registering in India to list on #NSE. It’s not out of patriotism. It is because India is now listing the most expensively priced #IPOs. Everyone wants that. Real money is made by going against the herd. #SIPs are now a popular herd strategy. Hypothetical SIP works as nobody was doing that before. Now that everyone does that, it may not work anymore. A herd strategy doesn’t make money. Popular strategy becomes a #LIC. A generation invested there building dream castles. Nothing happened. These policies provided 5% returns when FDs were at 15% interest. SIPs are being used to buy expensive new #IPOs that is being leveraged by private equity players for smarter exits. This strategy can never make money for retail. Everyone is trying to time the listings here. Isn’t it fair for the investors also to “time the SIPs”?. Five years later, probably by 2030, most of us would realize that SIPs at these high valuations were poor investments. They are unlikely to provide the 15% to 25% returns that most are secretly plugging into their excel sheets. It has not worked anywhere outside the US market. How are you so sure? What will work is being smart about the strategy. Stop SIPs when markets are expensive & do a FD SIP. But when ,markets drop 20% or more, pull the funds into equity. This could be the only way to make more than 12% to 15% returns. It’s not for everyone but this is the only strategy. FIIs are timing. Promotors are timing. IPOs are timing. Everyone is timing the markets. Why shouldn’t you do the same?

Anurag Singh

277,223 просмотров • 1 год назад

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

Reflection🪩

132,195 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

All-In Liquidity: The Ultimate Investor Conference 🍷 Where: Napa, CA 🌳 When: May 31-June 3 ✅ Apply: Chamath Palihapitiya explains the concept: “ There are a handful of conferences that happen every year where money is made.” “I'll give you a couple of examples: All the top market traders have been invited to this thing called Ira Sohn every year. Where you go in front of a large audience, present your best long or short idea, and if you take those portfolios, they tend to do really well.” “Separately, there are conferences that investment banks organize that are off the record, not publicly accessible, where they ask their biggest traders to present their best long and short ideas of public stocks.” “Then, there are these equivalent conferences that investment banks do for private companies, where the best fast growing private companies show up and the CEOs get on stage and they give presentations.” “All of these things have been closed. I would like to blow that wide open.” “So what will we do?” “We will convene the best investors in public markets, the best hedge fund managers, the best private market investors, the best growth investors, the best credit investors, and the largest cohort of LPs, representing trillions of dollars of capital, and the CEOs of the fastest growing and most important companies in technology.” “And what we will do over the course of a few days is, we'll have some presentations, we'll have best ideas, we'll build relationships. There may be some investments that happen as a result of that.” “We're going to shut down all of Yountville, we're going to shut down The French Laundry, we're going to shut down all of it, and it'll be ours for a two-day playground where we will build relationships, allocate capital, and maybe make some money as a result.” “We'll make some allocations to emerging managers, who may need to raise capital and scale up, but can show us good returns.” “We are going to take all of these things that I've been a part of that have been in closed rooms, and we're going to put them together and open it up.” Join us:

All-In Liquidity: The Ultimate Investor Conference 🍷 Where: Napa, CA 🌳 When: May 31-June 3 ✅ Apply: Chamath Palihapitiya explains the concept: “ There are a handful of conferences that happen every year where money is made.” “I'll give you a couple of examples: All the top market traders have been invited to this thing called Ira Sohn every year. Where you go in front of a large audience, present your best long or short idea, and if you take those portfolios, they tend to do really well.” “Separately, there are conferences that investment banks organize that are off the record, not publicly accessible, where they ask their biggest traders to present their best long and short ideas of public stocks.” “Then, there are these equivalent conferences that investment banks do for private companies, where the best fast growing private companies show up and the CEOs get on stage and they give presentations.” “All of these things have been closed. I would like to blow that wide open.” “So what will we do?” “We will convene the best investors in public markets, the best hedge fund managers, the best private market investors, the best growth investors, the best credit investors, and the largest cohort of LPs, representing trillions of dollars of capital, and the CEOs of the fastest growing and most important companies in technology.” “And what we will do over the course of a few days is, we'll have some presentations, we'll have best ideas, we'll build relationships. There may be some investments that happen as a result of that.” “We're going to shut down all of Yountville, we're going to shut down The French Laundry, we're going to shut down all of it, and it'll be ours for a two-day playground where we will build relationships, allocate capital, and maybe make some money as a result.” “We'll make some allocations to emerging managers, who may need to raise capital and scale up, but can show us good returns.” “We are going to take all of these things that I've been a part of that have been in closed rooms, and we're going to put them together and open it up.” Join us:

The All-In Podcast

151,501 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

Founder Mode

39,005 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Steven Soderbergh on George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury Road" (2015): "Interviewer: You never storyboard? Soderbergh: No. The ability to stage well is a skill and a talent that I value above almost everything else. And I say that because there are people who do it better than I’ll ever be able to do it after 40 years of active study. I just watched 'Mad Max: Fury Road' (2015) again last week, and I tell you I couldn’t direct 30 seconds of that. I’d put a gun in my mouth. I don’t understand how [George Miller] does that, I really don’t, and it’s my job to understand it. I don’t understand two things: I don’t understand how they’re not still shooting that film and I don’t understand how hundreds of people aren’t dead. I could almost see that’s kind of possible until the polecat sequence, and then I give up. We are talking about the ability in three dimensions to break a sequence into a series of shots in which no matter how fast you’re cutting, you know where you are geographically. And each one is a real shot where a lot of things had to go right. I’m going to keep trying; I’m not going to keep trying in the sense that I’m going to volunteer to direct the next Mad Max movie. I’m going to keep trying in the sense that when I have sequences that demand a certain level of sophistication in terms of their visual staging, I’m going to try and watch the people who do it really well and see if I can climb inside their heads enough to think like that. But he’s off the chart. I guarantee that the handful of people who are even in range of that, when they saw Fury Road, had blood squirting out of their eyes. The thing with George Miller, it’s not just that, he does everything really well. The scripts are great, the performances are great, the ideas are great. He’s exceptional. I met him once for about 30 seconds at the Directors Guild Awards in Los Angeles the year of Fury Road. But you don’t want to say that stuff to somebody’s face; it’s embarrassing." (Steven Soderbergh's interview with Gavin J. Blair, The Hollywood Reporter, 2017) P.S: On this day, 11 years ago, "Mad Max: Fury Road" (2015) premiered in Hollywood, California.

Steven Soderbergh on George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury Road" (2015): "Interviewer: You never storyboard? Soderbergh: No. The ability to stage well is a skill and a talent that I value above almost everything else. And I say that because there are people who do it better than I’ll ever be able to do it after 40 years of active study. I just watched 'Mad Max: Fury Road' (2015) again last week, and I tell you I couldn’t direct 30 seconds of that. I’d put a gun in my mouth. I don’t understand how [George Miller] does that, I really don’t, and it’s my job to understand it. I don’t understand two things: I don’t understand how they’re not still shooting that film and I don’t understand how hundreds of people aren’t dead. I could almost see that’s kind of possible until the polecat sequence, and then I give up. We are talking about the ability in three dimensions to break a sequence into a series of shots in which no matter how fast you’re cutting, you know where you are geographically. And each one is a real shot where a lot of things had to go right. I’m going to keep trying; I’m not going to keep trying in the sense that I’m going to volunteer to direct the next Mad Max movie. I’m going to keep trying in the sense that when I have sequences that demand a certain level of sophistication in terms of their visual staging, I’m going to try and watch the people who do it really well and see if I can climb inside their heads enough to think like that. But he’s off the chart. I guarantee that the handful of people who are even in range of that, when they saw Fury Road, had blood squirting out of their eyes. The thing with George Miller, it’s not just that, he does everything really well. The scripts are great, the performances are great, the ideas are great. He’s exceptional. I met him once for about 30 seconds at the Directors Guild Awards in Los Angeles the year of Fury Road. But you don’t want to say that stuff to somebody’s face; it’s embarrassing." (Steven Soderbergh's interview with Gavin J. Blair, The Hollywood Reporter, 2017) P.S: On this day, 11 years ago, "Mad Max: Fury Road" (2015) premiered in Hollywood, California.

DepressedBergman

1,751,812 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Q: How do you build a great company? In the clip below, Sam Altman walks through 9 things he has seen the best founders do: #1 Get to know your users really well “The best founders do customer support themselves. They go visit their users—in the case of Airbnb they go live with them. You want to get to know your users really really well.” #2 Have a short cycle time & understand compound growth “The cycle here is basically: talk to customer to understand pain point → build product to address that → get product in front of user → see what they do → repeat cycle. This cycle is how you iterate and improve. The law of compound growth being what it is: if you can get 2% better every iteration cycle, your iteration cycle is every four hours rather than every four weeks, and you compound that over the course of a few years, you’ll be in a very very different place. Make it one of your top goals to build one of the fastest iterating companies the world has ever seen.” #3 Make a long-term commitment “Most companies have a 2-3 year time horizon. But companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work. If you think about it that way from the very beginning, you will make very different and much better decisions. I think this is the only arbitrage opportunity left in the market. Almost no one makes a fairly long-term commitment to a new project. But if you do that, you will think in a different way, you will hire different people, and it will work very well.” #4 Stay lean until everything is working really well “In the early days, when you’re experimenting and zig zagging, you’re like a fast little speed boat and want to be able to turn the whole company on a dime. You can’t do that if you’re a big company—cash burn aside, which is another problem. The flexibility of the company basically decreases with the square of the number of employees, so you want to stay really small until you’re sure things are working. Once things are working, then you can get really big.” #5 Resist the urge to hire; especially resist the urge to hire mediocre people “Vinod Khosla has a saying that I love: ‘the team you build is the company you build.’ This is really true and I never appreciated how true this was for a long time. If you build a team of great people and you have a product that people love, you’ll have a 90%+ chance of success. Those are both really hard to do, and they’re independent variables. But don’t ignore the team component. The best CEOs I know spend huge amounts of their time recruiting and retaining good talent.” #6 Relentless execution “You have to keep going, and do things perfectly, and get all of the details right. You have to care too much about every experience that a customer has with your company.” #7 Startups are about not giving up “One of the very best companies in the last YC batch applied 7 times before they got in. This is just a version of what happens in startups all of the time: you get beat down, again, and again, and again. And that last time when you get pushed down and don’t think you have enough energy to get back up—that’s the time it actually works. This is what you sign up for if you’re going to start a startup.” #8 Fiduciary duty to take care of yourself “This is a 10-year marathon and you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders to take care of yourself. Some people treat startups like an all-nighter: they don’t take care of their health, they don’t sleep, they don’t maintain their personal relationships. It is true that startups are a bad choice for work-life balance. But you have a duty to yourself, your team, and your investors to take care of yourself.” #9 Clear mission “You don’t have to figure this out on Day 1, but all of the most successful startups I’ve been fortunate enough to be a part of pretty quickly—in the first one to two years—figure out a really important mission. It’s this mission that gets people to join them. It drives the founders. It gets the media to write about them. And even if you start off building a project that’s just interesting to you and solves a problem in your life—which is how you should start—remember that you should have a clear mission at some point… That is what will convince people to come help you, and that is how you will build this idea into a huge company with a ton of people that really love your product.” Follow Startup Archive for more tactical startup advice!

Q: How do you build a great company? In the clip below, Sam Altman walks through 9 things he has seen the best founders do: #1 Get to know your users really well “The best founders do customer support themselves. They go visit their users—in the case of Airbnb they go live with them. You want to get to know your users really really well.” #2 Have a short cycle time & understand compound growth “The cycle here is basically: talk to customer to understand pain point → build product to address that → get product in front of user → see what they do → repeat cycle. This cycle is how you iterate and improve. The law of compound growth being what it is: if you can get 2% better every iteration cycle, your iteration cycle is every four hours rather than every four weeks, and you compound that over the course of a few years, you’ll be in a very very different place. Make it one of your top goals to build one of the fastest iterating companies the world has ever seen.” #3 Make a long-term commitment “Most companies have a 2-3 year time horizon. But companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work. If you think about it that way from the very beginning, you will make very different and much better decisions. I think this is the only arbitrage opportunity left in the market. Almost no one makes a fairly long-term commitment to a new project. But if you do that, you will think in a different way, you will hire different people, and it will work very well.” #4 Stay lean until everything is working really well “In the early days, when you’re experimenting and zig zagging, you’re like a fast little speed boat and want to be able to turn the whole company on a dime. You can’t do that if you’re a big company—cash burn aside, which is another problem. The flexibility of the company basically decreases with the square of the number of employees, so you want to stay really small until you’re sure things are working. Once things are working, then you can get really big.” #5 Resist the urge to hire; especially resist the urge to hire mediocre people “Vinod Khosla has a saying that I love: ‘the team you build is the company you build.’ This is really true and I never appreciated how true this was for a long time. If you build a team of great people and you have a product that people love, you’ll have a 90%+ chance of success. Those are both really hard to do, and they’re independent variables. But don’t ignore the team component. The best CEOs I know spend huge amounts of their time recruiting and retaining good talent.” #6 Relentless execution “You have to keep going, and do things perfectly, and get all of the details right. You have to care too much about every experience that a customer has with your company.” #7 Startups are about not giving up “One of the very best companies in the last YC batch applied 7 times before they got in. This is just a version of what happens in startups all of the time: you get beat down, again, and again, and again. And that last time when you get pushed down and don’t think you have enough energy to get back up—that’s the time it actually works. This is what you sign up for if you’re going to start a startup.” #8 Fiduciary duty to take care of yourself “This is a 10-year marathon and you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders to take care of yourself. Some people treat startups like an all-nighter: they don’t take care of their health, they don’t sleep, they don’t maintain their personal relationships. It is true that startups are a bad choice for work-life balance. But you have a duty to yourself, your team, and your investors to take care of yourself.” #9 Clear mission “You don’t have to figure this out on Day 1, but all of the most successful startups I’ve been fortunate enough to be a part of pretty quickly—in the first one to two years—figure out a really important mission. It’s this mission that gets people to join them. It drives the founders. It gets the media to write about them. And even if you start off building a project that’s just interesting to you and solves a problem in your life—which is how you should start—remember that you should have a clear mission at some point… That is what will convince people to come help you, and that is how you will build this idea into a huge company with a ton of people that really love your product.” Follow Startup Archive for more tactical startup advice!

Startup Archive

407,704 просмотров • 2 лет назад

BTC has been insanely volatile this week, but I think the bigger takeaway is not that the bear market is over. If anything, the data is pointing to a mini rally in April that could fool a lot of people before things get uglier in May and June. That is the core idea behind this video. The main resource I used to make the case is the Better Crypto Calendar. The monthly returns and year-over-year comparisons for BTC, ETH, TOTALES, and the broader crypto market all point to the same pattern that we have seen in prior bottom years: relief rallies can and do happen, but they usually happen inside a larger bearish structure. That is why I think April can still close green, and why I also think people need to stay careful once the market starts looking a little too comfortable. The old TradFi saying "sell in May and walk away" is not a perfect crypto rule, but this year it lines up well with the broader data. Bottom years tend to include a bounce in April, more pain in May and June, and sometimes another bounce in July after the market has already gone through a lot of drawdown. That does not mean every month will map perfectly, but it does mean a short-term rally would be normal and not some magical proof that the bear market has ended. So the real message here is balance. Do not ignore a possible April rally if the data supports it, but do not let a few green weeks trick you into abandoning common sense either. Bottom years are gifts because they create lower prices, cleaner DCA opportunities, and better long-term entries. You just have to be emotionally ready for the fact that those opportunities usually come wrapped in volatility, uncertainty, and fake-outs. 📅 Check out the Better Crypto Calendar here: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Kraken 👉 🥇 Toobit: $15k Bonus 👉 🥈 TBO indicator: identify trends early, confirm breakouts, and maximize profits by staying in the trend 👉 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

BTC has been insanely volatile this week, but I think the bigger takeaway is not that the bear market is over. If anything, the data is pointing to a mini rally in April that could fool a lot of people before things get uglier in May and June. That is the core idea behind this video. The main resource I used to make the case is the Better Crypto Calendar. The monthly returns and year-over-year comparisons for BTC, ETH, TOTALES, and the broader crypto market all point to the same pattern that we have seen in prior bottom years: relief rallies can and do happen, but they usually happen inside a larger bearish structure. That is why I think April can still close green, and why I also think people need to stay careful once the market starts looking a little too comfortable. The old TradFi saying "sell in May and walk away" is not a perfect crypto rule, but this year it lines up well with the broader data. Bottom years tend to include a bounce in April, more pain in May and June, and sometimes another bounce in July after the market has already gone through a lot of drawdown. That does not mean every month will map perfectly, but it does mean a short-term rally would be normal and not some magical proof that the bear market has ended. So the real message here is balance. Do not ignore a possible April rally if the data supports it, but do not let a few green weeks trick you into abandoning common sense either. Bottom years are gifts because they create lower prices, cleaner DCA opportunities, and better long-term entries. You just have to be emotionally ready for the fact that those opportunities usually come wrapped in volatility, uncertainty, and fake-outs. 📅 Check out the Better Crypto Calendar here: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Kraken 👉 🥇 Toobit: $15k Bonus 👉 🥈 TBO indicator: identify trends early, confirm breakouts, and maximize profits by staying in the trend 👉 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

Aaron Dishner

13,110 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨Nick Fuentes says he was told he would be DESTROYED because he is a problem for JD Vance becoming President! “This guy is being foisted upon us! I've never seen anything like this ever. First of all, this administration is not doing so hot. Let's get that straight. The war in Ukraine is still going on. The war in the Middle East is about to get started again. We don't have mass deportations. We don't have a wall. The economy is not going so great. Epstein files just came out because Congress made you release them. And yet everyone is telling us already you've got to vote for J.D. Vance. Well, time out. This administration is not going well. And HE is the Vice President! We're not even a year in. They already want us voting in the next one! Think about how crazy that is. It's not even a year in. It is 2025 still and they’ve already got us thinking we got to vote in 2828. It's 2025 and you SUCK! This administration sucks! So not only do you already want us thinking about the next one. This one isn't even going well! You think we're ready for more? We're not even finished with this! And this is a pile of shit! We've been eating shit for a year and they're ready to blow through any kind of a primary. Trump has been on the ballot three times. It's unprecedented in modern history that you have something like this. Trump was on the ballot in ‘16, ‘20 and ‘24. ‘28 is the first Republican election since 2012 that Trump was not on the ballot. It should be wide open for us to decide where we're going to go after this. And not only are they telling us, well, you got to get ready to vote again in the next cycle. They're telling us a decision has been made already! It's Vance! Turning Point is telling us. Tucker is telling us. Elon is telling us. Everyone is already telling us Vance is the guy. No one shills for JD Vance more than Tucker Carlson. And that's really weird. Turning Point. Erika has crowned Vance the next President. They've all crowned him next president. WHO EVEN IS THIS GUY? Before he was VP, he was a Senator for two years. Before that, he was a Never Trumper. Before that, his name wasn't even Vance! It was Hamill. He didn't even start going by Vance until 2014. WHOLE EVEN IS THIS GUY? Okay. This administration blows. Get ready to vote for the next one! And we already have a nominee! Even though it's the first time in 16 years we're going to have a wide open primary. And it's going to be this guy that no one even knows who he is. And if you don't like that, well, you're a problem to be eliminated, which is effectively what they've told me.”

🚨Nick Fuentes says he was told he would be DESTROYED because he is a problem for JD Vance becoming President! “This guy is being foisted upon us! I've never seen anything like this ever. First of all, this administration is not doing so hot. Let's get that straight. The war in Ukraine is still going on. The war in the Middle East is about to get started again. We don't have mass deportations. We don't have a wall. The economy is not going so great. Epstein files just came out because Congress made you release them. And yet everyone is telling us already you've got to vote for J.D. Vance. Well, time out. This administration is not going well. And HE is the Vice President! We're not even a year in. They already want us voting in the next one! Think about how crazy that is. It's not even a year in. It is 2025 still and they’ve already got us thinking we got to vote in 2828. It's 2025 and you SUCK! This administration sucks! So not only do you already want us thinking about the next one. This one isn't even going well! You think we're ready for more? We're not even finished with this! And this is a pile of shit! We've been eating shit for a year and they're ready to blow through any kind of a primary. Trump has been on the ballot three times. It's unprecedented in modern history that you have something like this. Trump was on the ballot in ‘16, ‘20 and ‘24. ‘28 is the first Republican election since 2012 that Trump was not on the ballot. It should be wide open for us to decide where we're going to go after this. And not only are they telling us, well, you got to get ready to vote again in the next cycle. They're telling us a decision has been made already! It's Vance! Turning Point is telling us. Tucker is telling us. Elon is telling us. Everyone is already telling us Vance is the guy. No one shills for JD Vance more than Tucker Carlson. And that's really weird. Turning Point. Erika has crowned Vance the next President. They've all crowned him next president. WHO EVEN IS THIS GUY? Before he was VP, he was a Senator for two years. Before that, he was a Never Trumper. Before that, his name wasn't even Vance! It was Hamill. He didn't even start going by Vance until 2014. WHOLE EVEN IS THIS GUY? Okay. This administration blows. Get ready to vote for the next one! And we already have a nominee! Even though it's the first time in 16 years we're going to have a wide open primary. And it's going to be this guy that no one even knows who he is. And if you don't like that, well, you're a problem to be eliminated, which is effectively what they've told me.”

Chris Nelson 🏝️🇺🇸

113,276 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Peter Thiel and David Sacks were going to write a book about PayPal. Elon Musk’s chapter was titled “The Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk.” The PayPal Mafia. The sharpest venture minds of a generation. People who had built with Musk. Watched him operate up close. They thought he was out of his mind. Thiel: “When Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the 2000s, people thought he was just really, really crazy.” This was not the press misunderstanding a founder. This was his own people. And they were not wrong by accident. They were wrong by design. Because the framework everyone uses to calculate risk is built on one assumption. That the laws governing what is possible are fixed. Musk did not share that assumption. Thiel figured that out later. Thiel: “If one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky. But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained both succeed, you have to reassess.” One success is luck. Two is a different kind of intelligence entirely. Musk was simultaneously trying to privatize space and electrify transportation. Two industries with the most entrenched players on Earth. Two that had eaten billions in failed attempts. Two that governments spent decades trying to move and couldn’t. He did both. At the same time. Nearly went bankrupt doing it. And came out the other side owning both. That is not luck. That is not even genius. That is a different relationship with reality itself. The conventional risk model measures one thing. The probability of losing what you already have. Capital at risk. Downside scenarios. Protect the position. Musk was running a different equation entirely. He was calculating the cost of not trying. The risk of building a reusable rocket and failing is a rounding error. The risk of humanity remaining trapped on a single planet forever is not. The conventional investor sees a 90% chance of losing everything and calls it irrational. Musk saw a 100% chance of civilizational stagnation if no one moved and called that the real risk. The math was never wrong. The lens was just incomprehensibly larger. Thiel: “Somehow the rest of us are too risk-averse, or there’s something about risk he knows that we don’t.” That is Peter Thiel. One of the most ruthless, clear-eyed thinkers in venture capital history admitting the model broke. Not that Musk got lucky. That the rest of them were running a flawed framework and didn’t know it. That should keep you up at night. Because if the PayPal Mafia had the wrong model, the question is not whether Musk is exceptional. The question is how many other things the conventional framework is catastrophically wrong about right now. How many ideas getting buried today look obvious in ten years. How many founders are being told they don’t understand risk when they are the only ones who do. The chapter never got written. The man it was supposed to warn us about built two of the most important companies in human history instead. They are still writing the explanation. He already moved on to the next impossible thing.

Peter Thiel and David Sacks were going to write a book about PayPal. Elon Musk’s chapter was titled “The Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk.” The PayPal Mafia. The sharpest venture minds of a generation. People who had built with Musk. Watched him operate up close. They thought he was out of his mind. Thiel: “When Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the 2000s, people thought he was just really, really crazy.” This was not the press misunderstanding a founder. This was his own people. And they were not wrong by accident. They were wrong by design. Because the framework everyone uses to calculate risk is built on one assumption. That the laws governing what is possible are fixed. Musk did not share that assumption. Thiel figured that out later. Thiel: “If one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky. But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained both succeed, you have to reassess.” One success is luck. Two is a different kind of intelligence entirely. Musk was simultaneously trying to privatize space and electrify transportation. Two industries with the most entrenched players on Earth. Two that had eaten billions in failed attempts. Two that governments spent decades trying to move and couldn’t. He did both. At the same time. Nearly went bankrupt doing it. And came out the other side owning both. That is not luck. That is not even genius. That is a different relationship with reality itself. The conventional risk model measures one thing. The probability of losing what you already have. Capital at risk. Downside scenarios. Protect the position. Musk was running a different equation entirely. He was calculating the cost of not trying. The risk of building a reusable rocket and failing is a rounding error. The risk of humanity remaining trapped on a single planet forever is not. The conventional investor sees a 90% chance of losing everything and calls it irrational. Musk saw a 100% chance of civilizational stagnation if no one moved and called that the real risk. The math was never wrong. The lens was just incomprehensibly larger. Thiel: “Somehow the rest of us are too risk-averse, or there’s something about risk he knows that we don’t.” That is Peter Thiel. One of the most ruthless, clear-eyed thinkers in venture capital history admitting the model broke. Not that Musk got lucky. That the rest of them were running a flawed framework and didn’t know it. That should keep you up at night. Because if the PayPal Mafia had the wrong model, the question is not whether Musk is exceptional. The question is how many other things the conventional framework is catastrophically wrong about right now. How many ideas getting buried today look obvious in ten years. How many founders are being told they don’t understand risk when they are the only ones who do. The chapter never got written. The man it was supposed to warn us about built two of the most important companies in human history instead. They are still writing the explanation. He already moved on to the next impossible thing.

Dustin

49,454 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Q: How do you build a great company? In the clip below, Sam Altman walks through 9 things he has seen the best founders do: #1 Get to know your users really well “The best founders do customer support themselves. They go visit their users—in the case of Airbnb they go live with them. You want to get to know your users really really well.” #2 Have a short cycle time & understand compound growth “The cycle here is basically: talk to customer to understand pain point → build product to address that → get product in front of user → see what they do → repeat cycle. This cycle is how you iterate and improve. The law of compound growth being what it is: if you can get 2% better every iteration cycle, your iteration cycle is every four hours rather than every four weeks, and you compound that over the course of a few years, you’ll be in a very very different place. Make it one of your top goals to build one of the fastest iterating companies the world has ever seen.” #3 Make a long-term commitment “Most companies have a 2-3 year time horizon. But companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work. If you think about it that way from the very beginning, you will make very different and much better decisions. I think this is the only arbitrage opportunity left in the market. Almost no one makes a fairly long-term commitment to a new project. But if you do that, you will think in a different way, you will hire different people, and it will work very well.” #4 Stay lean until everything is working really well “In the early days, when you’re experimenting and zig zagging, you’re like a fast little speed boat and want to be able to turn the whole company on a dime. You can’t do that if you’re a big company—cash burn aside, which is another problem. The flexibility of the company basically decreases with the square of the number of employees, so you want to stay really small until you’re sure things are working. Once things are working, then you can get really big.” #5 Resist the urge to hire; especially resist the urge to hire mediocre people “Vinod Khosla has a saying that I love: ‘the team you build is the company you build.’ This is really true and I never appreciated how true this was for a long time. If you build a team of great people and you have a product that people love, you’ll have a 90%+ chance of success. Those are both really hard to do, and they’re independent variables. But don’t ignore the team component. The best CEOs I know spend huge amounts of their time recruiting and retaining good talent.” #6 Relentless execution “You have to keep going, and do things perfectly, and get all of the details right. You have to care too much about every experience that a customer has with your company.” #7 Startups are about not giving up “One of the very best companies in the last YC batch applied 7 times before they got in. This is just a version of what happens in startups all of the time: you get beat down, again, and again, and again. And that last time when you get pushed down and don’t think you have enough energy to get back up—that’s the time it actually works. This is what you sign up for if you’re going to start a startup.” #8 Fiduciary duty to take care of yourself “This is a 10 year marathon and you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders to take care of yourself. Some people treat startups like an all-nighter: they don’t take care of their health, they don’t sleep, they don’t maintain their personal relationships. It is true that startups are a bad choice for work-life balance. But you have a duty to yourself, your team, and your investors to take care of yourself.” #9 Clear mission “You don’t have to figure this out on Day 1, but all of the most successful startups I’ve been fortunate enough to be a part of pretty quickly—in the first one to two years—figure out a really important mission. It’s this mission that gets people to join them. It drives the founders. It gets the media to write about them. And even if you start off building a project that’s just interesting to you and solves a problem in your life—which is how you should start—remember that you should have a clear mission at some point… That is what will convince people to come help you, and that is how you will build this idea into a huge company with a ton of people that really love your product.”

Q: How do you build a great company? In the clip below, Sam Altman walks through 9 things he has seen the best founders do: #1 Get to know your users really well “The best founders do customer support themselves. They go visit their users—in the case of Airbnb they go live with them. You want to get to know your users really really well.” #2 Have a short cycle time & understand compound growth “The cycle here is basically: talk to customer to understand pain point → build product to address that → get product in front of user → see what they do → repeat cycle. This cycle is how you iterate and improve. The law of compound growth being what it is: if you can get 2% better every iteration cycle, your iteration cycle is every four hours rather than every four weeks, and you compound that over the course of a few years, you’ll be in a very very different place. Make it one of your top goals to build one of the fastest iterating companies the world has ever seen.” #3 Make a long-term commitment “Most companies have a 2-3 year time horizon. But companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work. If you think about it that way from the very beginning, you will make very different and much better decisions. I think this is the only arbitrage opportunity left in the market. Almost no one makes a fairly long-term commitment to a new project. But if you do that, you will think in a different way, you will hire different people, and it will work very well.” #4 Stay lean until everything is working really well “In the early days, when you’re experimenting and zig zagging, you’re like a fast little speed boat and want to be able to turn the whole company on a dime. You can’t do that if you’re a big company—cash burn aside, which is another problem. The flexibility of the company basically decreases with the square of the number of employees, so you want to stay really small until you’re sure things are working. Once things are working, then you can get really big.” #5 Resist the urge to hire; especially resist the urge to hire mediocre people “Vinod Khosla has a saying that I love: ‘the team you build is the company you build.’ This is really true and I never appreciated how true this was for a long time. If you build a team of great people and you have a product that people love, you’ll have a 90%+ chance of success. Those are both really hard to do, and they’re independent variables. But don’t ignore the team component. The best CEOs I know spend huge amounts of their time recruiting and retaining good talent.” #6 Relentless execution “You have to keep going, and do things perfectly, and get all of the details right. You have to care too much about every experience that a customer has with your company.” #7 Startups are about not giving up “One of the very best companies in the last YC batch applied 7 times before they got in. This is just a version of what happens in startups all of the time: you get beat down, again, and again, and again. And that last time when you get pushed down and don’t think you have enough energy to get back up—that’s the time it actually works. This is what you sign up for if you’re going to start a startup.” #8 Fiduciary duty to take care of yourself “This is a 10 year marathon and you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders to take care of yourself. Some people treat startups like an all-nighter: they don’t take care of their health, they don’t sleep, they don’t maintain their personal relationships. It is true that startups are a bad choice for work-life balance. But you have a duty to yourself, your team, and your investors to take care of yourself.” #9 Clear mission “You don’t have to figure this out on Day 1, but all of the most successful startups I’ve been fortunate enough to be a part of pretty quickly—in the first one to two years—figure out a really important mission. It’s this mission that gets people to join them. It drives the founders. It gets the media to write about them. And even if you start off building a project that’s just interesting to you and solves a problem in your life—which is how you should start—remember that you should have a clear mission at some point… That is what will convince people to come help you, and that is how you will build this idea into a huge company with a ton of people that really love your product.”

Michael McGuiness

500,098 просмотров • 2 лет назад

First of all I wanted to say I am grateful for all the kind comments post-interview release. It is humbling to be in a position to inspire others who are also on the path towards finding success in trading. So, sincerely, thank you! 🙏 Secondly, I've been receiving messages from a couple of folks newly competing in this year's competition - on advice. I always find it a little cringe to look back at my own interview and hear myself speak ... but if I had to choose two snippets of the entire interview as advice, it would be this: 1) It's all a game against yourself. Remember that the ultimate goal of trading is to make money. Joining the competition should serve as a way to hold yourself accountable to the highest standards under public scrutiny. This means: (A) Sticking to process and focusing on risk management: One good trade at a time. (B) Ensuring you take care of the downside (again, risk management), and naturally the upside will take care of itself. (C) Tuning out noise and disregard how others are performing because it serves no purpose to you anyways. Remember that one trading mistake can take you out of your flow - just like randomly chucking a shot in a basketball game can affect the flow of the entire offense. Additionally, one trading mistake often domino effects into a range of other mistakes if you are not careful. Therefore, focus on making good decisions, even if it means you're not making big returns in the now. Be patient because you only need a couple moments in a year where your psych, strategy, and market aligns to step on the gas and gun for your returns. 2) When not trading well, cut size. I think this point cannot be emphasized enough. The geometric effect of losses noticeably hits you once you go beyond a 10% drawdown. Especially with the current environment this year if you did not manage to catch any trending stocks, you will likely be psychologically aggravated. Be very aware of your emotional state and take advantage of it. Lost the last 5 trades? Slash your risk in half. You drew down 5% for the month already? Step back and re-evaluate the market, identify areas of improvement, and then re-establish the floor next month to no more than a -2.5% drawdown month. Cutting your risk until you begin to find traction again is the way to ensure that you maximize your chances of recovering as quickly as possible. The anti-martingale strategy works! -------------------------------------------------------- Lastly, and most importantly, the year is long, so enjoy the process! Stay committed to doing the deep dives/hard work, and enjoy the ride. 🌊 Happy MLK day! Full link to interview here:

First of all I wanted to say I am grateful for all the kind comments post-interview release. It is humbling to be in a position to inspire others who are also on the path towards finding success in trading. So, sincerely, thank you! 🙏 Secondly, I've been receiving messages from a couple of folks newly competing in this year's competition - on advice. I always find it a little cringe to look back at my own interview and hear myself speak ... but if I had to choose two snippets of the entire interview as advice, it would be this: 1) It's all a game against yourself. Remember that the ultimate goal of trading is to make money. Joining the competition should serve as a way to hold yourself accountable to the highest standards under public scrutiny. This means: (A) Sticking to process and focusing on risk management: One good trade at a time. (B) Ensuring you take care of the downside (again, risk management), and naturally the upside will take care of itself. (C) Tuning out noise and disregard how others are performing because it serves no purpose to you anyways. Remember that one trading mistake can take you out of your flow - just like randomly chucking a shot in a basketball game can affect the flow of the entire offense. Additionally, one trading mistake often domino effects into a range of other mistakes if you are not careful. Therefore, focus on making good decisions, even if it means you're not making big returns in the now. Be patient because you only need a couple moments in a year where your psych, strategy, and market aligns to step on the gas and gun for your returns. 2) When not trading well, cut size. I think this point cannot be emphasized enough. The geometric effect of losses noticeably hits you once you go beyond a 10% drawdown. Especially with the current environment this year if you did not manage to catch any trending stocks, you will likely be psychologically aggravated. Be very aware of your emotional state and take advantage of it. Lost the last 5 trades? Slash your risk in half. You drew down 5% for the month already? Step back and re-evaluate the market, identify areas of improvement, and then re-establish the floor next month to no more than a -2.5% drawdown month. Cutting your risk until you begin to find traction again is the way to ensure that you maximize your chances of recovering as quickly as possible. The anti-martingale strategy works! -------------------------------------------------------- Lastly, and most importantly, the year is long, so enjoy the process! Stay committed to doing the deep dives/hard work, and enjoy the ride. 🌊 Happy MLK day! Full link to interview here:

Clement Ang

24,117 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Peter Lynch on why predicting the market is a waste of your time: The pitch is simple. Stop trying to forecast the economy, and start studying what the market has actually done. Lynch is blunt about where investors waste their energy. People try to predict the stock market, which he calls a total waste of time because no one can do it. They try to predict interest rates too, but as he points out, if anyone could call interest rates correctly three times in a row, they would be a billionaire, and there simply are not that many billionaires on the planet. The economy is no easier. During the high inflation and unemployment of 1981 and 1982, no one predicted the worst recession since the Depression. His conclusion on macro forecasting is sharp: "If you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 12 minutes." The point is not that this information would be useless. Of course it would help to know what the market or interest rates will do next. The problem is that you never actually get to learn it in advance. Even Alan Greenspan, Lynch notes, cannot predict long-term interest rates. So where should your attention go instead? Toward specific, knowable facts tied to the businesses you own. Scrap prices. Hotel occupancy rates. The price of ethylene. Aluminum inventories. Home affordability and housing stock data. The unglamorous details that actually tell you something about a company's reality. Then comes the part most investors get emotionally wrong. Lynch argues you should study history so you stop being surprised when the market falls, because it falls constantly. The numbers he lays out: In the last 93 years, there have been 50 declines of 10% or more. That means a correction shows up roughly once every two years. Of those 50 declines, 15 were 25% or more. Those are bear markets, and they arrive about every six years. His framing flips the usual fear on its head. Declines are not the threat. They are the opportunity, because they let you buy companies you understand at lower prices. He is also clear-eyed about the people who claim to have seen each drop coming. They often predict these events dozens of times before one finally happens.

Peter Lynch on why predicting the market is a waste of your time: The pitch is simple. Stop trying to forecast the economy, and start studying what the market has actually done. Lynch is blunt about where investors waste their energy. People try to predict the stock market, which he calls a total waste of time because no one can do it. They try to predict interest rates too, but as he points out, if anyone could call interest rates correctly three times in a row, they would be a billionaire, and there simply are not that many billionaires on the planet. The economy is no easier. During the high inflation and unemployment of 1981 and 1982, no one predicted the worst recession since the Depression. His conclusion on macro forecasting is sharp: "If you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 12 minutes." The point is not that this information would be useless. Of course it would help to know what the market or interest rates will do next. The problem is that you never actually get to learn it in advance. Even Alan Greenspan, Lynch notes, cannot predict long-term interest rates. So where should your attention go instead? Toward specific, knowable facts tied to the businesses you own. Scrap prices. Hotel occupancy rates. The price of ethylene. Aluminum inventories. Home affordability and housing stock data. The unglamorous details that actually tell you something about a company's reality. Then comes the part most investors get emotionally wrong. Lynch argues you should study history so you stop being surprised when the market falls, because it falls constantly. The numbers he lays out: In the last 93 years, there have been 50 declines of 10% or more. That means a correction shows up roughly once every two years. Of those 50 declines, 15 were 25% or more. Those are bear markets, and they arrive about every six years. His framing flips the usual fear on its head. Declines are not the threat. They are the opportunity, because they let you buy companies you understand at lower prices. He is also clear-eyed about the people who claim to have seen each drop coming. They often predict these events dozens of times before one finally happens.

Black Edge

21,428 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

‘Conspiracy Theorists’ are right again New Inspector General Report confirms USAID has been funding terrorist groups all around the world with taxpayer money and using them for CIA and DoD operations Mike Benz on Joe Rogan “We're just now learning this two weeks ago. Despite them, them doing this activity for 30 years, it turns out there's a get out of, get-out-of-sponsoring-terrorism-free card at USAID, which is that USAID cannot directly provide funding to terrorist groups, but their contractors are not required under the grant agreements to go through those, OFAC style, those counter-terrorism financing. If a bank did this, you would go directly to jail. Do not pass go, do not have liberty again for the next 20 years of your life. But if USAID does it, it's completely legal So this is how you have USAID giving - Just last week, $122 million to ISIS - We found they fund all the terrorist groups in Pakistan - They fund the terrorist groups in the Sahel in Africa If for what, what purpose? Paramilitary terrorist groups are extremely useful to US statecraft, as well as for Department of Defense special operations work, as well as for political destabilization” “I should note again, when it's too dirty for the CIA, you give it to USAID. This is why these drug operations and these terrorist operations run primarily through USAID rather than directly at the CIA.”

‘Conspiracy Theorists’ are right again New Inspector General Report confirms USAID has been funding terrorist groups all around the world with taxpayer money and using them for CIA and DoD operations Mike Benz on Joe Rogan “We're just now learning this two weeks ago. Despite them, them doing this activity for 30 years, it turns out there's a get out of, get-out-of-sponsoring-terrorism-free card at USAID, which is that USAID cannot directly provide funding to terrorist groups, but their contractors are not required under the grant agreements to go through those, OFAC style, those counter-terrorism financing. If a bank did this, you would go directly to jail. Do not pass go, do not have liberty again for the next 20 years of your life. But if USAID does it, it's completely legal So this is how you have USAID giving - Just last week, $122 million to ISIS - We found they fund all the terrorist groups in Pakistan - They fund the terrorist groups in the Sahel in Africa If for what, what purpose? Paramilitary terrorist groups are extremely useful to US statecraft, as well as for Department of Defense special operations work, as well as for political destabilization” “I should note again, when it's too dirty for the CIA, you give it to USAID. This is why these drug operations and these terrorist operations run primarily through USAID rather than directly at the CIA.”

Wall Street Apes

167,246 просмотров • 1 год назад

Naval Ravikant on why it's 10,000 iterations, not 10,000 hours: "The only true test of intelligence is if you get what you want out of life. And there are two parts to that: one is getting what you want, so you know how to get it. And the second is wanting the right things, knowing what to want in the first place." Naval believes most people are proceeding unconsciously through life. As he puts it: "If you're not careful you can end up in a place in life not only that you don't want to be, but one that you didn't even mean to get to. Usually, people end up there because they are going on autopilot with societal expectations or people's expectations. Out of guilt or mimetic desire, our desires are picked up from other people." On how little time we spend deciding: "We run on these four-year cycles. You go join a startup, you vest your stock over four years. College you go for four years, high school you go for four years. These are very long cycles, the amount of time we spend deciding what to do and who to do it with? Very short. Very, very short." He continues: "We spend three months deciding, one month deciding on a job where we're going to be for 10 years or 5 years. People decide frivolously which city to live in and that's going to decide who their friends are, what their jobs are, their opportunity, their weather, their food supply, their air supply, quality of life. It's such an important decision but people spend so little time thinking it through." His rule: "I would argue that if you're making a four-year decision, spend a year thinking it through. Like really thinking it. 25% of the time." On the secretary theorem: "The optimal time to search is somewhere around a third of the way through. You take the best person you've worked with and try to find someone that good or better. By the time you've got about a third of the way through, you have seen enough that you now have a sense of what the bar is. Then anybody who meets or exceeds that bar is good enough." But here's the catch: "It's actually not time-based; it's not based on one-third of the time, it's iteration-based. The number of candidates, the number of shots you took on goal. So you want to have lots and lots of iterations. You need to bail out quickly, and you need to be decisive quickly." On failed relationships: "If you go back and you look through failed relationships, probably the biggest regret will be staying in the relationship after you knew it was over. The moment you knew it wasn't going to work out, you should have moved on." His reframe of Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 hours: "I would say it's actually 10,000 iterations to Mastery. It's not actually 10,000; it's some unknown number, but it's about the number of iterations that drives a learning curve. Iteration is not repetition—repetition is doing the same thing over and over. Iteration is modifying it with a learning and then doing another version of it. That's error correction." On modern society: "Modern society is far more forgiving of failure. Once you find the one business you're meant to plow into and compound returns, it's okay if you had 50 small failed ventures or 50 small failed job interviews. The number of failures doesn't matter." His approach: "You want to be skeptical about specific things—every specific opportunity is probably a fail. But you want to be optimistic in the general. Something in here is going to work out. You want to investigate and explore very, very quickly until you find the match. And then you have to be willing to go all in." On labels: "Labels like pessimist, optimist, cynic, introvert, extrovert, these are very self-limiting. Don't define yourself by trauma or PTSD because then you lock it into your identity and you're just going to loop on it. It's better to stay flexible because reality is always changing and you have to be able to adapt to it." Spend a year deciding. Take 10,000 iterations. Then go all in.

Naval Ravikant on why it's 10,000 iterations, not 10,000 hours: "The only true test of intelligence is if you get what you want out of life. And there are two parts to that: one is getting what you want, so you know how to get it. And the second is wanting the right things, knowing what to want in the first place." Naval believes most people are proceeding unconsciously through life. As he puts it: "If you're not careful you can end up in a place in life not only that you don't want to be, but one that you didn't even mean to get to. Usually, people end up there because they are going on autopilot with societal expectations or people's expectations. Out of guilt or mimetic desire, our desires are picked up from other people." On how little time we spend deciding: "We run on these four-year cycles. You go join a startup, you vest your stock over four years. College you go for four years, high school you go for four years. These are very long cycles, the amount of time we spend deciding what to do and who to do it with? Very short. Very, very short." He continues: "We spend three months deciding, one month deciding on a job where we're going to be for 10 years or 5 years. People decide frivolously which city to live in and that's going to decide who their friends are, what their jobs are, their opportunity, their weather, their food supply, their air supply, quality of life. It's such an important decision but people spend so little time thinking it through." His rule: "I would argue that if you're making a four-year decision, spend a year thinking it through. Like really thinking it. 25% of the time." On the secretary theorem: "The optimal time to search is somewhere around a third of the way through. You take the best person you've worked with and try to find someone that good or better. By the time you've got about a third of the way through, you have seen enough that you now have a sense of what the bar is. Then anybody who meets or exceeds that bar is good enough." But here's the catch: "It's actually not time-based; it's not based on one-third of the time, it's iteration-based. The number of candidates, the number of shots you took on goal. So you want to have lots and lots of iterations. You need to bail out quickly, and you need to be decisive quickly." On failed relationships: "If you go back and you look through failed relationships, probably the biggest regret will be staying in the relationship after you knew it was over. The moment you knew it wasn't going to work out, you should have moved on." His reframe of Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 hours: "I would say it's actually 10,000 iterations to Mastery. It's not actually 10,000; it's some unknown number, but it's about the number of iterations that drives a learning curve. Iteration is not repetition—repetition is doing the same thing over and over. Iteration is modifying it with a learning and then doing another version of it. That's error correction." On modern society: "Modern society is far more forgiving of failure. Once you find the one business you're meant to plow into and compound returns, it's okay if you had 50 small failed ventures or 50 small failed job interviews. The number of failures doesn't matter." His approach: "You want to be skeptical about specific things—every specific opportunity is probably a fail. But you want to be optimistic in the general. Something in here is going to work out. You want to investigate and explore very, very quickly until you find the match. And then you have to be willing to go all in." On labels: "Labels like pessimist, optimist, cynic, introvert, extrovert, these are very self-limiting. Don't define yourself by trauma or PTSD because then you lock it into your identity and you're just going to loop on it. It's better to stay flexible because reality is always changing and you have to be able to adapt to it." Spend a year deciding. Take 10,000 iterations. Then go all in.

Jaynit

68,707 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

$THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.$

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction. Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero. The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off. The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations. But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be. Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it. But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price: What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time. The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies. Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy. These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation. That premium is evaporating. Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend. Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now. Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER. EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S. Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018. And the positioning is absurd: US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008. Everyone is out of position. Now layer in commodities: The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop. And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away. Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs. The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it. Now here's the setup: Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular. Commodities across the board. Energy, industrial metals, precious metals. And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy. Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles. The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years. Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities. The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US. At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it. This is the trade.

George Noble

436,989 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад