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๐—œ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฟ๐—ต๐˜†๐˜๐—ต๐—บ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ด๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฏ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐˜€? Finaeon's Bryan Taylor lays out a 30-year cycle running through the last century of US market returns: โ€ข ๐——๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ฏ๐—น๐—ฒ-๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€: 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, 2010s โ€ข ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐˜€: 1940s, 1970s, 2000s (two vicious bear markets) โ€ข ๐—™๐—ผ๐—น๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ป...

179,347 views โ€ข 3 months ago โ€ขvia X (Twitter)

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Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market โ€” and this is where, Larry, I agree with you โ€” is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

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15,309 views โ€ข 1 month ago

SHORT POST: Time for contra #SIPs? Since SIP has become the new LIC. A herd behavior Quoting from the movie โ€œDrishyam 2โ€ โ€œSawaal ye nahin hai ke aapke ankhoon ke saamne kya hai. Sawaal ye hai ki aap dekh kya rahe hain ? โ€œ #FIIs donโ€™t matter anymore in Indian markets as they hold just 15% of market now. However, FIIs are speaking with their money. Theyโ€™re selling. They see these prices as an opportunity to exit. But the focus on FIIs is a distraction. With 85% of Indian markets held by domestic money, the valuation is purely a function of how domestic investors value India. It is also a function of fund flows & your SIPs. Indian markets have capital controls. So money canโ€™t freely invest outside. This makes the market overvalued compared to other developed peers like UK, Korea, Japan, etc where investors donโ€™t have such restrictions. Promotor holdings have dropped from 48% to 40% in last few years. This should make investors think. While youโ€™re buying, the owners are selling. Why ? Even the erstwhile US registered firms are now registering in India to list on #NSE. Itโ€™s not out of patriotism. It is because India is now listing the most expensively priced #IPOs. Everyone wants that. Real money is made by going against the herd. #SIPs are now a popular herd strategy. Hypothetical SIP works as nobody was doing that before. Now that everyone does that, it may not work anymore. A herd strategy doesnโ€™t make money. Popular strategy becomes a #LIC. A generation invested there building dream castles. Nothing happened. These policies provided 5% returns when FDs were at 15% interest. SIPs are being used to buy expensive new #IPOs that is being leveraged by private equity players for smarter exits. This strategy can never make money for retail. Everyone is trying to time the listings here. Isnโ€™t it fair for the investors also to โ€œtime the SIPsโ€?. Five years later, probably by 2030, most of us would realize that SIPs at these high valuations were poor investments. They are unlikely to provide the 15% to 25% returns that most are secretly plugging into their excel sheets. It has not worked anywhere outside the US market. How are you so sure? What will work is being smart about the strategy. Stop SIPs when markets are expensive & do a FD SIP. But when ,markets drop 20% or more, pull the funds into equity. This could be the only way to make more than 12% to 15% returns. Itโ€™s not for everyone but this is the only strategy. FIIs are timing. Promotors are timing. IPOs are timing. Everyone is timing the markets. Why shouldnโ€™t you do the same?

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277,554 views โ€ข 1 year ago

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: โžฎ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% โžฎ Inflation just hit a 3-year high โžฎ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

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132,195 views โ€ข 4 months ago

All-In Liquidity: The Ultimate Investor Conference ๐Ÿท Where: Napa, CA ๐ŸŒณ When: May 31-June 3 โœ… Apply: Chamath Palihapitiya explains the concept: โ€œ There are a handful of conferences that happen every year where money is made.โ€ โ€œI'll give you a couple of examples: All the top market traders have been invited to this thing called Ira Sohn every year. Where you go in front of a large audience, present your best long or short idea, and if you take those portfolios, they tend to do really well.โ€ โ€œSeparately, there are conferences that investment banks organize that are off the record, not publicly accessible, where they ask their biggest traders to present their best long and short ideas of public stocks.โ€ โ€œThen, there are these equivalent conferences that investment banks do for private companies, where the best fast growing private companies show up and the CEOs get on stage and they give presentations.โ€ โ€œAll of these things have been closed. I would like to blow that wide open.โ€ โ€œSo what will we do?โ€ โ€œWe will convene the best investors in public markets, the best hedge fund managers, the best private market investors, the best growth investors, the best credit investors, and the largest cohort of LPs, representing trillions of dollars of capital, and the CEOs of the fastest growing and most important companies in technology.โ€ โ€œAnd what we will do over the course of a few days is, we'll have some presentations, we'll have best ideas, we'll build relationships. There may be some investments that happen as a result of that.โ€ โ€œWe're going to shut down all of Yountville, we're going to shut down The French Laundry, we're going to shut down all of it, and it'll be ours for a two-day playground where we will build relationships, allocate capital, and maybe make some money as a result.โ€ โ€œWe'll make some allocations to emerging managers, who may need to raise capital and scale up, but can show us good returns.โ€ โ€œWe are going to take all of these things that I've been a part of that have been in closed rooms, and we're going to put them together and open it up.โ€ Join us:

The All-In Podcast

151,772 views โ€ข 7 months ago

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

Founder Mode

39,005 views โ€ข 8 months ago

The world's safest bonds are suddenly not acting safe. The 30-year Treasury just hit its highest yield since 2007. Germany, France, and Japan are seeing the same thing. Yet the stock market is partying near record highs... A government bond is a loan you make to a country. The yield is the interest that country pays you. When the yield jumps, it means lenders are nervous. They are demanding more to hold that debt. This is not one country having a bad week. Long-term rates are spiking all over the world. Japan just hit a 30-year high. Germany hit its highest level since 2011. France hit levels not seen since 2008. The United States is leading the pack. The 30-year US yield touched 5.3% this week. The last time it was this high was 2007. Now look at what makes this so strange. The economy has actually been slowing down. Jobs data has cooled off. Retail sales just fell. That should push interest rates lower, not higher. Instead they keep climbing. So why are rates rising anyway? The bond market is scared of something bigger. The US government is drowning in debt. That pile is about to cross $40 trillion. In July alone the deficit hit $432 billion. The government keeps borrowing more every month. So lenders are demanding more to keep lending. Higher rates make that debt even harder to carry. Lending to a government once felt risk-free. That assumption is quietly breaking. Recent debt auctions tell the same story. The latest 30-year sale drew its highest yield since 2001. Buyers are forcing the government to pay up. They want more to lend for thirty long years. Oil is making all of this worse. It just pushed back above $90 a barrel. That feeds straight into inflation fears. And inflation is the enemy of every bond. There is one more warning sign: The biggest lenders are starting to walk away. China, Japan, and the UK all cut their holdings. Someone still has to buy all that new debt. Fewer buyers means even higher rates. Now come back to the stock market. It is still sitting near record highs. Wall Street has a comforting story for this. Strong earnings will power right through it. Maybe they will. But the bond market is not buying that story. Two markets are telling opposite things. Stocks say the party keeps going. Bonds say the ground is shifting underneath. When they disagree this sharply, bonds usually win. The bond market is bigger and harder to fool. It sets the cost of money for everyone. Higher yields quietly make every stock worth less. This is not just a Wall Street problem. These same yields set your mortgage and car loan. A new car loan now runs about 7%. When the government pays more, so do you. Retail watched the stock market. The bond market wrote the real story. That's the whole game. Surmount builds automated strategies that follow the data, not the noise. Start for free and let the signals lead.

Logan Weaver

11,838 views โ€ข 1 month ago

Steven Soderbergh on George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury Road" (2015): "Interviewer: You never storyboard? Soderbergh: No. The ability to stage well is a skill and a talent that I value above almost everything else. And I say that because there are people who do it better than Iโ€™ll ever be able to do it after 40 years of active study. I just watched 'Mad Max: Fury Road' (2015) again last week, and I tell you I couldnโ€™t direct 30 seconds of that. Iโ€™d put a gun in my mouth. I donโ€™t understand how [George Miller] does that, I really donโ€™t, and itโ€™s my job to understand it. I donโ€™t understand two things: I donโ€™t understand how theyโ€™re not still shooting that film and I donโ€™t understand how hundreds of people arenโ€™t dead. I could almost see thatโ€™s kind of possible until the polecat sequence, and then I give up. We are talking about the ability in three dimensions to break a sequence into a series of shots in which no matter how fast youโ€™re cutting, you know where you are geographically. And each one is a real shot where a lot of things had to go right. Iโ€™m going to keep trying; Iโ€™m not going to keep trying in the sense that Iโ€™m going to volunteer to direct the next Mad Max movie. Iโ€™m going to keep trying in the sense that when I have sequences that demand a certain level of sophistication in terms of their visual staging, Iโ€™m going to try and watch the people who do it really well and see if I can climb inside their heads enough to think like that. But heโ€™s off the chart. I guarantee that the handful of people who are even in range of that, when they saw Fury Road, had blood squirting out of their eyes. The thing with George Miller, itโ€™s not just that, he does everything really well. The scripts are great, the performances are great, the ideas are great. Heโ€™s exceptional. I met him once for about 30 seconds at the Directors Guild Awards in Los Angeles the year of Fury Road. But you donโ€™t want to say that stuff to somebodyโ€™s face; itโ€™s embarrassing." (Steven Soderbergh's interview with Gavin J. Blair, The Hollywood Reporter, 2017) P.S: On this day, 11 years ago, "Mad Max: Fury Road" (2015) premiered in Hollywood, California.

DepressedBergman

1,753,141 views โ€ข 5 months ago

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the "dead real estate market" perpetuated by boomers who won't sell houses to millennials who can't afford them "[there's] a demographic problem... in the U.S.... home prices are 30% too high. So we have an affordability problem" "We have most of the boomers sitting on the real estate, and as they die off or sell off some of their secondary properties, they need to sell them to the millennials, but the millennials can't afford [them]" "So in the U.S., we have this bizarre dead real estate market where we have this phenomenon we haven't seen... well, I think, ever, where homes for sale versus homes sold is at a gap the likes of which we've never seen" "And that's been there since last yearโ€”it's only getting worse. So the markets are frozen and eventually, you know, frozen markets do move, but they move slowly" "and what we're seeing in the U.S. is we're seeing home prices decline in the red states along the southern border; the sanctuary cities are still holding up, but, you know, if the AI bubble pops, that's going to cause some of these boomers to put their second and third homes on the market, and then that that'll just, you know, continue the cycle of home prices rolling over" "But someone like you [a millennial who's] waiting, you're going to have an opportunity. You're going to have an opportunity to buy at a discount, and you'll be fine. And... people get bummed out about lower home prices, but... for every loser there's a winner, and... I'd rather see younger millennials that are starting families be able to afford a home than a boomer sitting on his three properties not spending any money because he's retired" New Era Finance Podcast Edward Dowd

Sense Receptor

59,693 views โ€ข 1 month ago

๐—œ ๐—›๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—”๐—ฑ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—–๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—น๐˜† ๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐—ณ๐—ผ๐—ฟ ๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜€. ๐—›๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—œ๐˜€ ๐—˜๐˜…๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—น๐˜† ๐—›๐—ผ๐˜„ ๐—ฆ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐˜† ๐——๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—”๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—›๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—บ๐˜‚๐˜‡ ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ต๐˜. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฒ ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€. ๐—ข๐—ป๐—น๐˜† ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐—ฆ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ ๐—•๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—บ. Strip the politics AND read this the way a global crisis management office reads it, because this is the actual decision matrix in front of every operator with tonnage in the Gulf right now. Retweet and bookmark this. ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ข๐—ก๐—˜. Pay Iran's 1% toll, transit under IRGC protection following the newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority permit system, AND get your people and assets out while you can. America will NOT strike commercial ships. Your exposure is sanctions paperwork, not missiles. ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ง๐—ช๐—ข. Pretend the strait is "OPEN" because a president posted the word, pay America's 20% toll, AND sail without Iranian permission through waters where the IRGC has struck ship after ship for exactly that. You are trading a 1% fee for a 20% fee PLUS the missile risk PLUS cancelled insurance PLUS the duty of care liability when a drone finds your bridge on the ship. No board on earth signs that memo. ๐—ข๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ง๐—›๐—ฅ๐—˜๐—˜. Do nothing. Sit at anchor in the Gulf burning $25,000 to $100,000 a day in operating costs AND demurrage, but your crew is safe, your hull is safe, AND your cargo is intact. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—บ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ต From a strictly business standpoint the three collapse into two. Stay put AND wait for calm, OR follow Iran's directions as the only viable, reduced-risk way out. Option two does not exist commercially, because no duty-of-care framework, no insurer AND no general counsel will bless a route where the discount is negative AND the downside is a burning ship on the evening news. AND the data already confirms the choice being made. Of the 14 vessels that moved through the strait yesterday, the traffic that sailed was overwhelmingly running Iran's coastal corridor under Iran's rules. The market voted before the pundits finished arguing. ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฑ Here is what almost nobody has understood yet. Sovereignty over a waterway is not decided by who tweets "OPEN" in capital letters. It is decided by whose RULES the ships actually follow. Trump's 20% toll did not challenge Iran's control of Hormuz. It made Iran's 1% the bargain of the century, AND every CFO on earth can do that arithmetic in their head. Washington set out to price Iran out of the strait AND instead priced itself out of the boardroom. If this gave you signal worth keeping, follow AJ Signal on X AND Substack. Every retweet is another antenna. ๐—ฆ๐—œ๐—š๐—ก๐—”๐—Ÿ, ๐—ก๐—ข๐—ง ๐—ก๐—ข๐—œ๐—ฆ๐—˜!!

AJ Signal

93,511 views โ€ข 2 months ago

Q: How do you build a great company? In the clip below, Sam Altman walks through 9 things he has seen the best founders do: #1 Get to know your users really well โ€œThe best founders do customer support themselves. They go visit their usersโ€”in the case of Airbnb they go live with them. You want to get to know your users really really well.โ€ #2 Have a short cycle time & understand compound growth โ€œThe cycle here is basically: talk to customer to understand pain point โ†’ build product to address that โ†’ get product in front of user โ†’ see what they do โ†’ repeat cycle. This cycle is how you iterate and improve. The law of compound growth being what it is: if you can get 2% better every iteration cycle, your iteration cycle is every four hours rather than every four weeks, and you compound that over the course of a few years, youโ€™ll be in a very very different place. Make it one of your top goals to build one of the fastest iterating companies the world has ever seen.โ€ #3 Make a long-term commitment โ€œMost companies have a 2-3 year time horizon. But companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work. If you think about it that way from the very beginning, you will make very different and much better decisions. I think this is the only arbitrage opportunity left in the market. Almost no one makes a fairly long-term commitment to a new project. But if you do that, you will think in a different way, you will hire different people, and it will work very well.โ€ #4 Stay lean until everything is working really well โ€œIn the early days, when youโ€™re experimenting and zig zagging, youโ€™re like a fast little speed boat and want to be able to turn the whole company on a dime. You canโ€™t do that if youโ€™re a big companyโ€”cash burn aside, which is another problem. The flexibility of the company basically decreases with the square of the number of employees, so you want to stay really small until youโ€™re sure things are working. Once things are working, then you can get really big.โ€ #5 Resist the urge to hire; especially resist the urge to hire mediocre people โ€œVinod Khosla has a saying that I love: โ€˜the team you build is the company you build.โ€™ This is really true and I never appreciated how true this was for a long time. If you build a team of great people and you have a product that people love, youโ€™ll have a 90%+ chance of success. Those are both really hard to do, and theyโ€™re independent variables. But donโ€™t ignore the team component. The best CEOs I know spend huge amounts of their time recruiting and retaining good talent.โ€ #6 Relentless execution โ€œYou have to keep going, and do things perfectly, and get all of the details right. You have to care too much about every experience that a customer has with your company.โ€ #7 Startups are about not giving up โ€œOne of the very best companies in the last YC batch applied 7 times before they got in. This is just a version of what happens in startups all of the time: you get beat down, again, and again, and again. And that last time when you get pushed down and donโ€™t think you have enough energy to get back upโ€”thatโ€™s the time it actually works. This is what you sign up for if youโ€™re going to start a startup.โ€ #8 Fiduciary duty to take care of yourself โ€œThis is a 10-year marathon and you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders to take care of yourself. Some people treat startups like an all-nighter: they donโ€™t take care of their health, they donโ€™t sleep, they donโ€™t maintain their personal relationships. It is true that startups are a bad choice for work-life balance. But you have a duty to yourself, your team, and your investors to take care of yourself.โ€ #9 Clear mission โ€œYou donโ€™t have to figure this out on Day 1, but all of the most successful startups Iโ€™ve been fortunate enough to be a part of pretty quicklyโ€”in the first one to two yearsโ€”figure out a really important mission. Itโ€™s this mission that gets people to join them. It drives the founders. It gets the media to write about them. And even if you start off building a project thatโ€™s just interesting to you and solves a problem in your lifeโ€”which is how you should startโ€”remember that you should have a clear mission at some pointโ€ฆ That is what will convince people to come help you, and that is how you will build this idea into a huge company with a ton of people that really love your product.โ€ Follow Startup Archive for more tactical startup advice!

Startup Archive

407,763 views โ€ข 3 years ago

BTC has been insanely volatile this week, but I think the bigger takeaway is not that the bear market is over. If anything, the data is pointing to a mini rally in April that could fool a lot of people before things get uglier in May and June. That is the core idea behind this video. The main resource I used to make the case is the Better Crypto Calendar. The monthly returns and year-over-year comparisons for BTC, ETH, TOTALES, and the broader crypto market all point to the same pattern that we have seen in prior bottom years: relief rallies can and do happen, but they usually happen inside a larger bearish structure. That is why I think April can still close green, and why I also think people need to stay careful once the market starts looking a little too comfortable. The old TradFi saying "sell in May and walk away" is not a perfect crypto rule, but this year it lines up well with the broader data. Bottom years tend to include a bounce in April, more pain in May and June, and sometimes another bounce in July after the market has already gone through a lot of drawdown. That does not mean every month will map perfectly, but it does mean a short-term rally would be normal and not some magical proof that the bear market has ended. So the real message here is balance. Do not ignore a possible April rally if the data supports it, but do not let a few green weeks trick you into abandoning common sense either. Bottom years are gifts because they create lower prices, cleaner DCA opportunities, and better long-term entries. You just have to be emotionally ready for the fact that those opportunities usually come wrapped in volatility, uncertainty, and fake-outs. ๐Ÿ“… Check out the Better Crypto Calendar here: ๐Ÿ’น Take Your Trading to the Next Level! ๐Ÿ’ฐ Sign up & Trade on Kraken ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐Ÿฅ‡ Toobit: $15k Bonus ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐Ÿฅˆ TBO indicator: identify trends early, confirm breakouts, and maximize profits by staying in the trend ๐Ÿ‘‰ ๐Ÿ“š Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: ๐ŸŒ Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

Aaron Dishner

13,110 views โ€ข 6 months ago

Peter Thiel and David Sacks were going to write a book about PayPal. Elon Muskโ€™s chapter was titled โ€œThe Man Who Knew Nothing About Risk.โ€ The PayPal Mafia. The sharpest venture minds of a generation. People who had built with Musk. Watched him operate up close. They thought he was out of his mind. Thiel: โ€œWhen Elon was building both Tesla and SpaceX in the 2000s, people thought he was just really, really crazy.โ€ This was not the press misunderstanding a founder. This was his own people. And they were not wrong by accident. They were wrong by design. Because the framework everyone uses to calculate risk is built on one assumption. That the laws governing what is possible are fixed. Musk did not share that assumption. Thiel figured that out later. Thiel: โ€œIf one of the two companies had succeeded, you would say, well, maybe he still got really lucky. But when two out of two companies that people thought were completely harebrained both succeed, you have to reassess.โ€ One success is luck. Two is a different kind of intelligence entirely. Musk was simultaneously trying to privatize space and electrify transportation. Two industries with the most entrenched players on Earth. Two that had eaten billions in failed attempts. Two that governments spent decades trying to move and couldnโ€™t. He did both. At the same time. Nearly went bankrupt doing it. And came out the other side owning both. That is not luck. That is not even genius. That is a different relationship with reality itself. The conventional risk model measures one thing. The probability of losing what you already have. Capital at risk. Downside scenarios. Protect the position. Musk was running a different equation entirely. He was calculating the cost of not trying. The risk of building a reusable rocket and failing is a rounding error. The risk of humanity remaining trapped on a single planet forever is not. The conventional investor sees a 90% chance of losing everything and calls it irrational. Musk saw a 100% chance of civilizational stagnation if no one moved and called that the real risk. The math was never wrong. The lens was just incomprehensibly larger. Thiel: โ€œSomehow the rest of us are too risk-averse, or thereโ€™s something about risk he knows that we donโ€™t.โ€ That is Peter Thiel. One of the most ruthless, clear-eyed thinkers in venture capital history admitting the model broke. Not that Musk got lucky. That the rest of them were running a flawed framework and didnโ€™t know it. That should keep you up at night. Because if the PayPal Mafia had the wrong model, the question is not whether Musk is exceptional. The question is how many other things the conventional framework is catastrophically wrong about right now. How many ideas getting buried today look obvious in ten years. How many founders are being told they donโ€™t understand risk when they are the only ones who do. The chapter never got written. The man it was supposed to warn us about built two of the most important companies in human history instead. They are still writing the explanation. He already moved on to the next impossible thing.

Dustin

49,454 views โ€ข 6 months ago

๐ŸšจNick Fuentes says he was told he would be DESTROYED because he is a problem for JD Vance becoming President! โ€œThis guy is being foisted upon us! I've never seen anything like this ever. First of all, this administration is not doing so hot. Let's get that straight. The war in Ukraine is still going on. The war in the Middle East is about to get started again. We don't have mass deportations. We don't have a wall. The economy is not going so great. Epstein files just came out because Congress made you release them. And yet everyone is telling us already you've got to vote for J.D. Vance. Well, time out. This administration is not going well. And HE is the Vice President! We're not even a year in. They already want us voting in the next one! Think about how crazy that is. It's not even a year in. It is 2025 still and theyโ€™ve already got us thinking we got to vote in 2828. It's 2025 and you SUCK! This administration sucks! So not only do you already want us thinking about the next one. This one isn't even going well! You think we're ready for more? We're not even finished with this! And this is a pile of shit! We've been eating shit for a year and they're ready to blow through any kind of a primary. Trump has been on the ballot three times. It's unprecedented in modern history that you have something like this. Trump was on the ballot in โ€˜16, โ€˜20 and โ€˜24. โ€˜28 is the first Republican election since 2012 that Trump was not on the ballot. It should be wide open for us to decide where we're going to go after this. And not only are they telling us, well, you got to get ready to vote again in the next cycle. They're telling us a decision has been made already! It's Vance! Turning Point is telling us. Tucker is telling us. Elon is telling us. Everyone is already telling us Vance is the guy. No one shills for JD Vance more than Tucker Carlson. And that's really weird. Turning Point. Erika has crowned Vance the next President. They've all crowned him next president. WHO EVEN IS THIS GUY? Before he was VP, he was a Senator for two years. Before that, he was a Never Trumper. Before that, his name wasn't even Vance! It was Hamill. He didn't even start going by Vance until 2014. WHOLE EVEN IS THIS GUY? Okay. This administration blows. Get ready to vote for the next one! And we already have a nominee! Even though it's the first time in 16 years we're going to have a wide open primary. And it's going to be this guy that no one even knows who he is. And if you don't like that, well, you're a problem to be eliminated, which is effectively what they've told me.โ€

Chris Nelson ๐Ÿ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

113,276 views โ€ข 9 months ago

Q: How do you build a great company? In the clip below, Sam Altman walks through 9 things he has seen the best founders do: #1 Get to know your users really well โ€œThe best founders do customer support themselves. They go visit their usersโ€”in the case of Airbnb they go live with them. You want to get to know your users really really well.โ€ #2 Have a short cycle time & understand compound growth โ€œThe cycle here is basically: talk to customer to understand pain point โ†’ build product to address that โ†’ get product in front of user โ†’ see what they do โ†’ repeat cycle. This cycle is how you iterate and improve. The law of compound growth being what it is: if you can get 2% better every iteration cycle, your iteration cycle is every four hours rather than every four weeks, and you compound that over the course of a few years, youโ€™ll be in a very very different place. Make it one of your top goals to build one of the fastest iterating companies the world has ever seen.โ€ #3 Make a long-term commitment โ€œMost companies have a 2-3 year time horizon. But companies are almost always a 10 year project if they work. If you think about it that way from the very beginning, you will make very different and much better decisions. I think this is the only arbitrage opportunity left in the market. Almost no one makes a fairly long-term commitment to a new project. But if you do that, you will think in a different way, you will hire different people, and it will work very well.โ€ #4 Stay lean until everything is working really well โ€œIn the early days, when youโ€™re experimenting and zig zagging, youโ€™re like a fast little speed boat and want to be able to turn the whole company on a dime. You canโ€™t do that if youโ€™re a big companyโ€”cash burn aside, which is another problem. The flexibility of the company basically decreases with the square of the number of employees, so you want to stay really small until youโ€™re sure things are working. Once things are working, then you can get really big.โ€ #5 Resist the urge to hire; especially resist the urge to hire mediocre people โ€œVinod Khosla has a saying that I love: โ€˜the team you build is the company you build.โ€™ This is really true and I never appreciated how true this was for a long time. If you build a team of great people and you have a product that people love, youโ€™ll have a 90%+ chance of success. Those are both really hard to do, and theyโ€™re independent variables. But donโ€™t ignore the team component. The best CEOs I know spend huge amounts of their time recruiting and retaining good talent.โ€ #6 Relentless execution โ€œYou have to keep going, and do things perfectly, and get all of the details right. You have to care too much about every experience that a customer has with your company.โ€ #7 Startups are about not giving up โ€œOne of the very best companies in the last YC batch applied 7 times before they got in. This is just a version of what happens in startups all of the time: you get beat down, again, and again, and again. And that last time when you get pushed down and donโ€™t think you have enough energy to get back upโ€”thatโ€™s the time it actually works. This is what you sign up for if youโ€™re going to start a startup.โ€ #8 Fiduciary duty to take care of yourself โ€œThis is a 10 year marathon and you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders to take care of yourself. Some people treat startups like an all-nighter: they donโ€™t take care of their health, they donโ€™t sleep, they donโ€™t maintain their personal relationships. It is true that startups are a bad choice for work-life balance. But you have a duty to yourself, your team, and your investors to take care of yourself.โ€ #9 Clear mission โ€œYou donโ€™t have to figure this out on Day 1, but all of the most successful startups Iโ€™ve been fortunate enough to be a part of pretty quicklyโ€”in the first one to two yearsโ€”figure out a really important mission. Itโ€™s this mission that gets people to join them. It drives the founders. It gets the media to write about them. And even if you start off building a project thatโ€™s just interesting to you and solves a problem in your lifeโ€”which is how you should startโ€”remember that you should have a clear mission at some pointโ€ฆ That is what will convince people to come help you, and that is how you will build this idea into a huge company with a ton of people that really love your product.โ€

Michael McGuiness

500,098 views โ€ข 3 years ago

First of all I wanted to say I am grateful for all the kind comments post-interview release. It is humbling to be in a position to inspire others who are also on the path towards finding success in trading. So, sincerely, thank you! ๐Ÿ™ Secondly, I've been receiving messages from a couple of folks newly competing in this year's competition - on advice. I always find it a little cringe to look back at my own interview and hear myself speak ... but if I had to choose two snippets of the entire interview as advice, it would be this: 1) It's all a game against yourself. Remember that the ultimate goal of trading is to make money. Joining the competition should serve as a way to hold yourself accountable to the highest standards under public scrutiny. This means: (A) Sticking to process and focusing on risk management: One good trade at a time. (B) Ensuring you take care of the downside (again, risk management), and naturally the upside will take care of itself. (C) Tuning out noise and disregard how others are performing because it serves no purpose to you anyways. Remember that one trading mistake can take you out of your flow - just like randomly chucking a shot in a basketball game can affect the flow of the entire offense. Additionally, one trading mistake often domino effects into a range of other mistakes if you are not careful. Therefore, focus on making good decisions, even if it means you're not making big returns in the now. Be patient because you only need a couple moments in a year where your psych, strategy, and market aligns to step on the gas and gun for your returns. 2) When not trading well, cut size. I think this point cannot be emphasized enough. The geometric effect of losses noticeably hits you once you go beyond a 10% drawdown. Especially with the current environment this year if you did not manage to catch any trending stocks, you will likely be psychologically aggravated. Be very aware of your emotional state and take advantage of it. Lost the last 5 trades? Slash your risk in half. You drew down 5% for the month already? Step back and re-evaluate the market, identify areas of improvement, and then re-establish the floor next month to no more than a -2.5% drawdown month. Cutting your risk until you begin to find traction again is the way to ensure that you maximize your chances of recovering as quickly as possible. The anti-martingale strategy works! -------------------------------------------------------- Lastly, and most importantly, the year is long, so enjoy the process! Stay committed to doing the deep dives/hard work, and enjoy the ride. ๐ŸŒŠ Happy MLK day! Full link to interview here:

Clement Ang

24,117 views โ€ข 8 months ago

Peter Lynch on why predicting the market is a waste of your time: The pitch is simple. Stop trying to forecast the economy, and start studying what the market has actually done. Lynch is blunt about where investors waste their energy. People try to predict the stock market, which he calls a total waste of time because no one can do it. They try to predict interest rates too, but as he points out, if anyone could call interest rates correctly three times in a row, they would be a billionaire, and there simply are not that many billionaires on the planet. The economy is no easier. During the high inflation and unemployment of 1981 and 1982, no one predicted the worst recession since the Depression. His conclusion on macro forecasting is sharp: "If you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 12 minutes." The point is not that this information would be useless. Of course it would help to know what the market or interest rates will do next. The problem is that you never actually get to learn it in advance. Even Alan Greenspan, Lynch notes, cannot predict long-term interest rates. So where should your attention go instead? Toward specific, knowable facts tied to the businesses you own. Scrap prices. Hotel occupancy rates. The price of ethylene. Aluminum inventories. Home affordability and housing stock data. The unglamorous details that actually tell you something about a company's reality. Then comes the part most investors get emotionally wrong. Lynch argues you should study history so you stop being surprised when the market falls, because it falls constantly. The numbers he lays out: In the last 93 years, there have been 50 declines of 10% or more. That means a correction shows up roughly once every two years. Of those 50 declines, 15 were 25% or more. Those are bear markets, and they arrive about every six years. His framing flips the usual fear on its head. Declines are not the threat. They are the opportunity, because they let you buy companies you understand at lower prices. He is also clear-eyed about the people who claim to have seen each drop coming. They often predict these events dozens of times before one finally happens.

Black Edge

21,428 views โ€ข 3 months ago