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๐—ฆ๐—ต๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฑ ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐Ÿญ๐Ÿฌ๐Ÿฌ% ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—จ.๐—ฆ. ๐˜€๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐˜€? "I definitely recommend young people go 100% in stocks on their investment portfolio." "But as you get older, you should be more risk averse actually, because you have left time to recover and your human capital gets diminished." -- Roger Ibbotson...

13,319 ๆฌก่ง‚็œ‹ โ€ข 9 ๅคฉๅ‰ โ€ขvia X (Twitter)

21 ๆก่ฏ„่ฎบ

Global Investor ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Global Investor9 ๅคฉๅ‰

Very solid advice from this legend. The optimal strategy for young people might even be a higher allocation to equities, like 150%

Vae Victis ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Vae Victis9 ๅคฉๅ‰

Stocks sure, US stocks, not so much.

Mike (Michael) Petry ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mike (Michael) Petry8 ๅคฉๅ‰

Meb, the interesting part for me is that age itself isn't really the risk variable, time and dependence on the portfolio are. Someone with decades of earning power ahead of them can often tolerate volatility very differently from someone who needs the portfolio to fund life today. Human capital is a form of wealth too, and we don't talk about it nearly enough when discussing asset allocation.

William M ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
William M8 ๅคฉๅ‰

shallow advice but just my opinion

Larry Siegel ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Larry Siegel9 ๅคฉๅ‰

less time, not left time.

Curt Morrison, MD, FACC ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Curt Morrison, MD, FACC8 ๅคฉๅ‰

100% stocks for the young, perhaps, but not 100% US stocks.

Mark Map ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mark Map8 ๅคฉๅ‰

5/ Small & large value stocks ( size, value and quality "returns factors") are added for broader diversification and an offset to the QQQs downside volatility ( such as during the 2000-02 & 2022 decline periods ).

Ito ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Ito9 ๅคฉๅ‰

Worked out: $10k a year for 40 years at 7% ends near $2.14M. A 50% crash in year 1 leaves $2.06M. The same crash in year 39 leaves $1.07M. Same crash, one costs 4%, the other half.

Mark Map ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mark Map8 ๅคฉๅ‰

3/ Since 1986, a portfolio of small & large "value" stocks and the Nasdaq100/QQQ has produced 80%+ more return, on average, versus the S&P500 and 4X the returns of the Total World Market Index, with equivalent risk, over eleven rolling 30 yr periods

JB ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
JB9 ๅคฉๅ‰

You and @mozlyxy are my go-to finance accounts for these allocation debates. Always useful perspective.

Mark Map ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mark Map8 ๅคฉๅ‰

2/ Therefore, investment in a science and academics portfolio - one that can produce a higher return versus just the "S&P500" - may be required to overcome these headwinds.

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐Ÿ– ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT ๐Ÿ–9 ๅคฉๅ‰

No emergency fund?

Mark Map ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mark Map8 ๅคฉๅ‰

1/ The modern era is fraught with headwinds that can undermine the ability to build "enough" wealth for a decent retirement ( job and wage insecurity, rising costs of living, inadvertent care taking of family members, hardship withdrawals, crazy authoritarians, etc. )

Alex DeWolf ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Alex DeWolf9 ๅคฉๅ‰

The math checks out for early accumulation, but ignoring global diversification leaves massive growth potential on the table

Rafa@SeekingHarbors ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Rafa@SeekingHarbors9 ๅคฉๅ‰

NO! While it would make sense for the average young person, each of them will have more variability: each will endure more life accidents: Oops, I got fired; oops, I got sued; oops, we got pregnant; oops, oops. Each will need some liquid, accessible savings; not all volatile.

Avi Arbesfeld ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Avi Arbesfeld9 ๅคฉๅ‰

Charley Ellis too if not mistaken

KunitiTrading ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
KunitiTrading9 ๅคฉๅ‰

Age-based de-risking is often expressed as a simple equity/bond glide path, but a systematic portfolio can also define risk in terms of expected drawdown, concentration, correlation, and liquidity. The relevant research question is how each strategy changes the portfolioโ€™s failure modes as capital preservation becomes more importantโ€”not whether every allocation should follow the same age rule.

TheRealJohn ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
TheRealJohn9 ๅคฉๅ‰

From a purely asset allocation POV, no way. But the tax efficiency POV, hard to argue with.

James Bennett ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
James Bennett9 ๅคฉๅ‰

Time horizon, risk management, and staying disciplined matter more than following a single formula โ€” something @artjlynch3 always emphasizes. ๐Ÿ“Š

Mark Map ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mark Map8 ๅคฉๅ‰

4/ - 30+ years being a typical accumulation stage investment horizon. This portfolio exploits the "capitalization weighting" design of the Nasdaq100/QQQ - the same Darwinian stock selection approach that has made the S&P 500 index so "unbeatable" over the last 60 years

Mark Map ็š„ๅคดๅƒ
Mark Map8 ๅคฉๅ‰

6/ Certainly the risk averse feature may come in to play at some point. However, maximizing the early compounding decades of portfolio growth with the maximal growth portfolio can solve for a deficit in retirement funding if having used a "sub par" accumulation stage portfolio

็›ธๅ…ณ่ง†้ข‘

The Onion Theory of Risk by Marc Andreessen: "I think the single biggest thing entrepreneurs are missing, both on fundraising and how they run their companies, is the relationship between risk and cash. The relationship between risk and raising cash, and then the relationship between risk and spending cash. So I've always been a fan of something that Andy Ratcliffe taught me years ago, which he called the onion theory of risk. Um, which basically is, you can think about a startup like on day one, um, as having every conceivable kind of risk, right? And you can basically just make a list of the risks. And so you've got, you know, founding team risk. You know, do the founders, are the founders gonna be able to work together? Do you have the right founders? You're gonna have product risk. You know, can you build a product? You'll have technical risk, right? Which is maybe you need a machine learning breakthrough or something to make it work. Are you gonna be able to do that? Um, you'll have, you know, launch risk. Will the launch go well? You'll have, you know, market acceptance risk. You'll have revenue risk. A big risk you get into in a lot of businesses that have a sales force is, can you actually sell the product for enough money to actually pay for the cost of sale? So you have the cost of sale risk. If you're a consumer product, you'll have a viral growth risk. Well, you get the thing of viral growth. And so, a startup at the very beginning is basically just this long list of risks. And then the way that I always think about running a startup is also the way I think about raising money, which is it's a process of peeling away layers of risk as you go. And so you raise seed money in order to peel away the first two or three risks. The founding team risk, the product risk, and maybe the initial launch risk. You raise the A round to peel away the next level of product risk. Maybe you peel away some recruiting risk because you get your full engineering team built. Maybe you peel away some customer risk because you get your first five beta customers. And so basically the way to think about it is you're peeling away risk as you go. You're peeling away risk by achieving milestones. And then as you achieve milestones, you're both making progress in your business, and you're justifying raising more capital. And so you come in, and you pitch somebody like us, and you say you're raising a B round. The best way to do that with us is you say, okay, I raised a seed round, I achieved these milestones, I eliminated these risks. I raised the A round, I achieved these milestones, and I eliminated these risks. Now I'm gonna raise a B round. Here are my milestones, here are my risks. And then by the time I go to raise a seed round, here's the state that I'll be in. And then you calibrate the amount of money that you raise to spend to the risks that you're pulling out of the business. And I go through all this, in a sense this sounds kind of obvious, but I go through all this because it's a systematic way to think about how the money gets raised and deployed. As compared to so much of what's happening, especially these days, which is just, my God, let me go raise as much money as I can. Let me go build the fancy offices, let me go hire as many people as I can, and just kind of hope for the best."

Founder Mode

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