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๐ฆ๐ต๐ผ๐๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ผ๐๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ฌ% ๐๐ผ ๐จ.๐ฆ. ๐๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ๐? "I definitely recommend young people go 100% in stocks on their investment portfolio." "But as you get older, you should be more risk averse actually, because you have left time to recover and your human capital gets diminished." -- Roger Ibbotson... show more
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Very solid advice from this legend. The optimal strategy for young people might even be a higher allocation to equities, like 150%

Stocks sure, US stocks, not so much.

Meb, the interesting part for me is that age itself isn't really the risk variable, time and dependence on the portfolio are. Someone with decades of earning power ahead of them can often tolerate volatility very differently from someone who needs the portfolio to fund life today. Human capital is a form of wealth too, and we don't talk about it nearly enough when discussing asset allocation.

shallow advice but just my opinion

less time, not left time.

100% stocks for the young, perhaps, but not 100% US stocks.

5/ Small & large value stocks ( size, value and quality "returns factors") are added for broader diversification and an offset to the QQQs downside volatility ( such as during the 2000-02 & 2022 decline periods ).

Worked out: $10k a year for 40 years at 7% ends near $2.14M. A 50% crash in year 1 leaves $2.06M. The same crash in year 39 leaves $1.07M. Same crash, one costs 4%, the other half.

3/ Since 1986, a portfolio of small & large "value" stocks and the Nasdaq100/QQQ has produced 80%+ more return, on average, versus the S&P500 and 4X the returns of the Total World Market Index, with equivalent risk, over eleven rolling 30 yr periods

You and @mozlyxy are my go-to finance accounts for these allocation debates. Always useful perspective.

2/ Therefore, investment in a science and academics portfolio - one that can produce a higher return versus just the "S&P500" - may be required to overcome these headwinds.

No emergency fund?

1/ The modern era is fraught with headwinds that can undermine the ability to build "enough" wealth for a decent retirement ( job and wage insecurity, rising costs of living, inadvertent care taking of family members, hardship withdrawals, crazy authoritarians, etc. )

The math checks out for early accumulation, but ignoring global diversification leaves massive growth potential on the table

NO! While it would make sense for the average young person, each of them will have more variability: each will endure more life accidents: Oops, I got fired; oops, I got sued; oops, we got pregnant; oops, oops. Each will need some liquid, accessible savings; not all volatile.

Charley Ellis too if not mistaken

Age-based de-risking is often expressed as a simple equity/bond glide path, but a systematic portfolio can also define risk in terms of expected drawdown, concentration, correlation, and liquidity. The relevant research question is how each strategy changes the portfolioโs failure modes as capital preservation becomes more importantโnot whether every allocation should follow the same age rule.

From a purely asset allocation POV, no way. But the tax efficiency POV, hard to argue with.

Time horizon, risk management, and staying disciplined matter more than following a single formula โ something @artjlynch3 always emphasizes. ๐

4/ - 30+ years being a typical accumulation stage investment horizon. This portfolio exploits the "capitalization weighting" design of the Nasdaq100/QQQ - the same Darwinian stock selection approach that has made the S&P 500 index so "unbeatable" over the last 60 years

6/ Certainly the risk averse feature may come in to play at some point. However, maximizing the early compounding decades of portfolio growth with the maximal growth portfolio can solve for a deficit in retirement funding if having used a "sub par" accumulation stage portfolio
