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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗯𝗼𝘅 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘂𝗽. what i like about 1win prediction markets is that they make moments like this even more interesting to follow. everyone has an opinion on which movie will dominate 2026, but here you get to see where people are actually putting... their conviction. right now, spider-man: brand new day has opened up a huge lead, while everyone else is still fighting to become the movie that challenges it. where the market stands today: → spider man: brand new day • $1.2m in volume • market chance: 70% → avengers: doomsday • $83k in volume • market chance: 14% → the odyssey • $39k in volume • market chance: 6% → toy story 5 • $38k in volume • market chance: 3% that's the fun part. today's favorite isn't always tomorrow's favorite. one trailer, one great review, or one breakout performance can completely reshape the race. if you want to see where the market is leaning or make your own prediction, check out the culture movies event on 1win prediction markets 👇 who's your pick to top the 2026 box office?show more

𝙿 𝙴 𝙺 𝙰 𝚈

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The 2026 box office race has become a lot more interesting than I expected. Spider-Man has already past $1.05B worldwide after only six days in theaters. That's the second-fastest any movie has reached the billion-dollar mark. Only Endgame got there sooner. A $360M domestic opening is a massive head start, and people are already talking about a run past $2B. Then there's The Odyssey. It's closing in on $1B worldwide after opening two weeks earlier and has held up far better than most people expected. For an R-rated film that's almost three hours long, those numbers are impressive. 1win has turned this race into a prediction market. You can pick the movie you think will finish 2026 as the highest-grossing film of the year. How to join ➫ Open the link below, or head to 1win → Markets → Highest-Grossing Movie of 2026 ➫ Sign in or create an account ➫ Fund your account if needed ➫ Make your pick I'm going with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. It already has a big lead, and I think that lead only grows from here. The Odyssey has had an incredible run, but Spider-Man looks like it's on track for an even bigger finish. I'm backing Spider-Man: Brand New Day. ➥

Revayah

18,470 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

i got you - prediction markets need a dedicated trading terminal + analytics dashboard to attract more volume and provide greater clarity to traders on their performance. traders need data visualizations which are geared towards tracking prediction oriented metrics like calibration curve + brier score. after spending months talking to prediction market traders on twitter - i built out this prototype (mock data for now since Kalshi doesn't offer auth in their API). over the last few months i've become prediction market pilled - believing in a future where experts in topics can profit from their knowledge and a world where most people can make better decisions for their future based off of prediction market odds. a world where someone can see the odds of a jerome powell interest rate cut and decide whether or not to buy a house. a world where someone can directly see the odds of an election and have better data on whether they should move somewhere accordingly. (i want to work in prediction markets btw)

i got you - prediction markets need a dedicated trading terminal + analytics dashboard to attract more volume and provide greater clarity to traders on their performance. traders need data visualizations which are geared towards tracking prediction oriented metrics like calibration curve + brier score. after spending months talking to prediction market traders on twitter - i built out this prototype (mock data for now since Kalshi doesn't offer auth in their API). over the last few months i've become prediction market pilled - believing in a future where experts in topics can profit from their knowledge and a world where most people can make better decisions for their future based off of prediction market odds. a world where someone can see the odds of a jerome powell interest rate cut and decide whether or not to buy a house. a world where someone can directly see the odds of an election and have better data on whether they should move somewhere accordingly. (i want to work in prediction markets btw)

steve

17,525 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘄𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲? for centuries, humans have looked at the sky asking the same question: are we alone in the universe? we’ve searched for signals, studied the stars and imagined what first contact might look like. now, 1win has turned that question into a prediction market. → will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2026? → will aliens arrive on Earth before the end of 2026? YES pays up to 100x. the market has already seen over $17M in volume across both questions. suddenly, the biggest “what if?” in human history has odds attached to it. maybe nothing happens. or maybe 2026 becomes the year the world gets an answer nobody expected. trump, we might need that announcement.. would you bet on it? check the market and make your prediction:👇

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝘄𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲? for centuries, humans have looked at the sky asking the same question: are we alone in the universe? we’ve searched for signals, studied the stars and imagined what first contact might look like. now, 1win has turned that question into a prediction market. → will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2026? → will aliens arrive on Earth before the end of 2026? YES pays up to 100x. the market has already seen over $17M in volume across both questions. suddenly, the biggest “what if?” in human history has odds attached to it. maybe nothing happens. or maybe 2026 becomes the year the world gets an answer nobody expected. trump, we might need that announcement.. would you bet on it? check the market and make your prediction:👇

𝙿 𝙴 𝙺 𝙰 𝚈

14,943 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

The whole industry is pivoting out of crypto right now "We saw Robinhood's crypto earnings down massively, but they replaced that with prediction markets and did well. Coinbase suffering because their volumes are down massively. Wintermute is beholden to the same trend, which is the depths of a bear market, apathy, very little trading volume, very little to market make" "They want to actually make money, so they're going to go to greener pastures where they can do so" "But just remember, our market makers are moving into other markets, our Bitcoin miners are becoming AI data centers, and our crypto exchanges are becoming everything apps focused more heavily on prediction markets than crypto volumes. That should show you everything you need to know about where we're at in the cycle right now"

The whole industry is pivoting out of crypto right now "We saw Robinhood's crypto earnings down massively, but they replaced that with prediction markets and did well. Coinbase suffering because their volumes are down massively. Wintermute is beholden to the same trend, which is the depths of a bear market, apathy, very little trading volume, very little to market make" "They want to actually make money, so they're going to go to greener pastures where they can do so" "But just remember, our market makers are moving into other markets, our Bitcoin miners are becoming AI data centers, and our crypto exchanges are becoming everything apps focused more heavily on prediction markets than crypto volumes. That should show you everything you need to know about where we're at in the cycle right now"

The Wolf Of All Streets

49,337 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

The strangest market on Polymarket right now isn't the World Cup winner $23M+ is bet on teams with less than a 2% chance of lifting the trophy > Spain leads with 16% and $89.2M in volume > France 12% and $68.5M But the smart money is looking in the wrong places > Japan: 1.2% - $6.9M in volume > Mexico: 1.0% - $8.3M in volume > Senegal: 0.5% - $3.2M in volume > Canada: 0.4% - $4.7M in volume At the 2022 World Cup, Morocco reached the semifinals with odds under 1% The upcoming tournament has 48 teams – more matches, more options, more chances for the underdog One playoff win = a 3x-5x offer in 90 minutes $517M+ already in the market. The final is July 19th I'm monitoring price movements directly in Bitget Wallet 🩵, where Polymarket is natively integrated into the app, because it's much more convenient Bitget wallet has a refund policy of up to $5 for the first loss on your prediction market: Are you aware of this?

The strangest market on Polymarket right now isn't the World Cup winner $23M+ is bet on teams with less than a 2% chance of lifting the trophy > Spain leads with 16% and $89.2M in volume > France 12% and $68.5M But the smart money is looking in the wrong places > Japan: 1.2% - $6.9M in volume > Mexico: 1.0% - $8.3M in volume > Senegal: 0.5% - $3.2M in volume > Canada: 0.4% - $4.7M in volume At the 2022 World Cup, Morocco reached the semifinals with odds under 1% The upcoming tournament has 48 teams – more matches, more options, more chances for the underdog One playoff win = a 3x-5x offer in 90 minutes $517M+ already in the market. The final is July 19th I'm monitoring price movements directly in Bitget Wallet 🩵, where Polymarket is natively integrated into the app, because it's much more convenient Bitget wallet has a refund policy of up to $5 for the first loss on your prediction market: Are you aware of this?

V1nT

15,920 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$HOOD My thoughts on the Robinhood election betting market news today: - Kalshi is proving the demand for this market is huge - I don't think $HOOD cares about the election but rather using this event as a test to see if they can launch a larger predictions market - The rate of innovation here is just incredible with this coming out 2 weeks after futures, index options, and the new desktop app - The people critiquing this move largely are missing the innovation in betting markets that's happening right now, EVERYTHING about the elections this cycle have changed in regards to media/polling because of these prediction markets and it seems that major events outside of the election will also have bids and asks for people who want to participate in it -- as a result, Robinhood may capitalize on that market

$HOOD My thoughts on the Robinhood election betting market news today: - Kalshi is proving the demand for this market is huge - I don't think $HOOD cares about the election but rather using this event as a test to see if they can launch a larger predictions market - The rate of innovation here is just incredible with this coming out 2 weeks after futures, index options, and the new desktop app - The people critiquing this move largely are missing the innovation in betting markets that's happening right now, EVERYTHING about the elections this cycle have changed in regards to media/polling because of these prediction markets and it seems that major events outside of the election will also have bids and asks for people who want to participate in it -- as a result, Robinhood may capitalize on that market

amit

48,733 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Prediction markets are no longer a niche corner of crypto. real people are putting real money behind real convictions on sports, crypto, and global geopolitics. the infrastructure is maturing fast. at the center of that shift is POTS MARKET. not just a platform a tool for aggregating collective intelligence. Users bet on outcomes with actual stakes, and the market reveals what the crowd actually believes. The numbers back it up. POTS Market is officially ranked a Top 20 Builder on Polymarket, with over $4M in monthly trading volume. that's not speculation that's traction. sports. financial indicators. major world events. POTS Market gives you the liquidity and depth to turn sharp insights into actual positions. If you see it before the market does, you can profit from it. stop guessing. start backing your conviction with stakes. explore the ecosystem → POTS MARKET POTS MONEY

Prediction markets are no longer a niche corner of crypto. real people are putting real money behind real convictions on sports, crypto, and global geopolitics. the infrastructure is maturing fast. at the center of that shift is POTS MARKET. not just a platform a tool for aggregating collective intelligence. Users bet on outcomes with actual stakes, and the market reveals what the crowd actually believes. The numbers back it up. POTS Market is officially ranked a Top 20 Builder on Polymarket, with over $4M in monthly trading volume. that's not speculation that's traction. sports. financial indicators. major world events. POTS Market gives you the liquidity and depth to turn sharp insights into actual positions. If you see it before the market does, you can profit from it. stop guessing. start backing your conviction with stakes. explore the ecosystem → POTS MARKET POTS MONEY

KAISER

12,208 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

💥NEW: CNN’s Harry Enten: “To put it mildly, I don’t think that Donald Trump likes Thomas Massie. And if you look at the prediction markets, it looks like they may get their man!” “Look at this: chance that Massie is, in fact, the KY-04 GOP nominee. It has been falling CONSIDERABLY over the last 10 days, according to the Kalshi prediction market.” “Look at this: It was 71% 10 days ago. Look at where that number is now: It’s 44! So chances more likely than not … Massie will in fact go down to defeat.”

💥NEW: CNN’s Harry Enten: “To put it mildly, I don’t think that Donald Trump likes Thomas Massie. And if you look at the prediction markets, it looks like they may get their man!” “Look at this: chance that Massie is, in fact, the KY-04 GOP nominee. It has been falling CONSIDERABLY over the last 10 days, according to the Kalshi prediction market.” “Look at this: It was 71% 10 days ago. Look at where that number is now: It’s 44! So chances more likely than not … Massie will in fact go down to defeat.”

Jason Cohen 🇺🇸

157,716 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Kairos And Why You Should Be A Part Of It Now. I’m sure that in the past few weeks, you’ve seen Kairos on your timeline whether from traders or creators like geek and tochi. What is Kairos? Kairos is currently the best prediction market trading terminal, aggregating Polymarket, Kalshi, and predict.fun. In simple terms, you can trade on all these prediction markets on kairos. Backed by a16z crypto, Geneva Trading, and more. Kairos is still in its beta phase, which means if you’re seeing this now, you’re genuinely early think HyperLiquid early. Why You Should Use Kairos Now • You get a major advantage by building volume early while it’s still in beta, ahead of any potential points system or token launch. • Its features outperforms every other prediction market product in speed, performance, advanced order types, news integration, and intelligence tools. No prediction market product comes close to Kairos in terms of technology. - Kill two birds with one stone: While trading Polymarket on Kairos, you’re simultaneously building trading volume for both platforms. This strategically positions you for potential $KAIROS and $POLY airdrops should any be announced. One volume. Two potential rewards. For Traders & Creators: • $30K Trading Competition Compete for a share of the prize pool using Kairos. Details: • There is currently a $5K Creator Pool and you get rewarded for creating content about Kairos. Also, if you’re a prediction market creator or micro-creator and you believe Kairos is the right place for you to grow and create, please feel free to reach out to me or Nexi and Zubby.hl. Use Kairos here: Join the Discord: Kairos is the Bloomberg Terminal for prediction markets and you’re truly early.

Kairos And Why You Should Be A Part Of It Now. I’m sure that in the past few weeks, you’ve seen Kairos on your timeline whether from traders or creators like geek and tochi. What is Kairos? Kairos is currently the best prediction market trading terminal, aggregating Polymarket, Kalshi, and predict.fun. In simple terms, you can trade on all these prediction markets on kairos. Backed by a16z crypto, Geneva Trading, and more. Kairos is still in its beta phase, which means if you’re seeing this now, you’re genuinely early think HyperLiquid early. Why You Should Use Kairos Now • You get a major advantage by building volume early while it’s still in beta, ahead of any potential points system or token launch. • Its features outperforms every other prediction market product in speed, performance, advanced order types, news integration, and intelligence tools. No prediction market product comes close to Kairos in terms of technology. - Kill two birds with one stone: While trading Polymarket on Kairos, you’re simultaneously building trading volume for both platforms. This strategically positions you for potential $KAIROS and $POLY airdrops should any be announced. One volume. Two potential rewards. For Traders & Creators: • $30K Trading Competition Compete for a share of the prize pool using Kairos. Details: • There is currently a $5K Creator Pool and you get rewarded for creating content about Kairos. Also, if you’re a prediction market creator or micro-creator and you believe Kairos is the right place for you to grow and create, please feel free to reach out to me or Nexi and Zubby.hl. Use Kairos here: Join the Discord: Kairos is the Bloomberg Terminal for prediction markets and you’re truly early.

JustDara

12,635 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐂𝐮𝐩 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲. Most people will use sportsbooks. A few will discover something better. Here's why the World Cup is actually POTS MARKET Market biggest moment. Every match carries dozens of predictable outcomes, not just who wins, but scorelines, goalscorers, red cards, halftime leads, VAR decisions. Traditional sportsbooks will process billions in bets. And keep most of it. Here is the problem with sportsbooks that nobody talks about: They set the odds. Not the market. Which means the house always has an edge baked in before you place a single bet. You're not trading against the market, you're trading against a company whose entire business model depends on you losing. That's not a prediction market. That's a casino with a football shirt on. Prediction markets are different. The odds aren't set by a company. They're set by the collective intelligence of everyone participating. When millions of people put real money behind their beliefs, the market finds truth faster than any analyst, pundit, or algorithm working alone. This is why prediction markets outperform polls, pundits, and press releases, every single time. Now here's where POTS Market changes the game entirely. POTS MONEY has a dedicated sports vertical, built specifically for football, basketball, and esports. Not a generic market with a football category tucked in the corner. A tailored module optimized for the way sports prediction actually works, short windows, live data, rapid settlement. 64 World Cup matches = 64 live prediction markets. Each one open, on-chain, transparent. But the real edge is not the markets themselves. It's the capital layer underneath them. On a traditional sportsbook, every bet locks your full stake. You place £100, that £100 is gone until settlement. POTS Money changes this. The DeFi lending primitive means you can collateralize positions and optimize capital across multiple markets simultaneously, without locking up dead capital on each one. That's not betting. That's portfolio management. And then there's the AI layer. Via MCP (Model Context Protocol), you can deploy autonomous trading agents that monitor live match data and execute positions based on your pre-set strategy. Imagine this: Agent monitors possession stats in real time Detects a momentum shift at the 60th minute Auto-places a position on the next goalscorer market before the crowd even reacts 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙖 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣. 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 Compare the two worlds side by side: Sportsbook: ❌ House sets the odds ❌ Geo-restricted ❌ Capital locked per bet ❌ No automation ❌ Withdraw only when they allow it POTS Market: ✅ Market sets the odds ✅ Open and on-chain ✅ Capital efficient via DeFi lending ✅ AI agents execute your strategy ✅ Fully collateralized, transparent settlement One of these is built for the next decade. The other is built for the last one. The timing is not a coincidence. POTS Market launches Q2 2026, right as World Cup fever peaks globally. Q1 2026 — MVP + Polymarket integration ✅ Q2 2026 — Market Launch + DeFi lending beta 👈 we are here Q3-Q4 2026 — Skill Hub + Sub-accounts 2027+ — DAO governance + cross-chain The infrastructure is ready exactly when the biggest prediction event on earth arrives. That's timing. The 2026 World Cup will mint the first generation of serious prediction market traders. Most will start on sportsbooks. The ones who do their research will end up on POTS. From trusting the house to trusting the market. From locked capital to capital efficiency. From punting to positioning. POTS MARKET POTS MONEY, the World Cup just became a DeFi event.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐂𝐮𝐩 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲. Most people will use sportsbooks. A few will discover something better. Here's why the World Cup is actually POTS MARKET Market biggest moment. Every match carries dozens of predictable outcomes, not just who wins, but scorelines, goalscorers, red cards, halftime leads, VAR decisions. Traditional sportsbooks will process billions in bets. And keep most of it. Here is the problem with sportsbooks that nobody talks about: They set the odds. Not the market. Which means the house always has an edge baked in before you place a single bet. You're not trading against the market, you're trading against a company whose entire business model depends on you losing. That's not a prediction market. That's a casino with a football shirt on. Prediction markets are different. The odds aren't set by a company. They're set by the collective intelligence of everyone participating. When millions of people put real money behind their beliefs, the market finds truth faster than any analyst, pundit, or algorithm working alone. This is why prediction markets outperform polls, pundits, and press releases, every single time. Now here's where POTS Market changes the game entirely. POTS MONEY has a dedicated sports vertical, built specifically for football, basketball, and esports. Not a generic market with a football category tucked in the corner. A tailored module optimized for the way sports prediction actually works, short windows, live data, rapid settlement. 64 World Cup matches = 64 live prediction markets. Each one open, on-chain, transparent. But the real edge is not the markets themselves. It's the capital layer underneath them. On a traditional sportsbook, every bet locks your full stake. You place £100, that £100 is gone until settlement. POTS Money changes this. The DeFi lending primitive means you can collateralize positions and optimize capital across multiple markets simultaneously, without locking up dead capital on each one. That's not betting. That's portfolio management. And then there's the AI layer. Via MCP (Model Context Protocol), you can deploy autonomous trading agents that monitor live match data and execute positions based on your pre-set strategy. Imagine this: Agent monitors possession stats in real time Detects a momentum shift at the 60th minute Auto-places a position on the next goalscorer market before the crowd even reacts 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙖 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣. 𝙏𝙝𝙖𝙩'𝙨 𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 Compare the two worlds side by side: Sportsbook: ❌ House sets the odds ❌ Geo-restricted ❌ Capital locked per bet ❌ No automation ❌ Withdraw only when they allow it POTS Market: ✅ Market sets the odds ✅ Open and on-chain ✅ Capital efficient via DeFi lending ✅ AI agents execute your strategy ✅ Fully collateralized, transparent settlement One of these is built for the next decade. The other is built for the last one. The timing is not a coincidence. POTS Market launches Q2 2026, right as World Cup fever peaks globally. Q1 2026 — MVP + Polymarket integration ✅ Q2 2026 — Market Launch + DeFi lending beta 👈 we are here Q3-Q4 2026 — Skill Hub + Sub-accounts 2027+ — DAO governance + cross-chain The infrastructure is ready exactly when the biggest prediction event on earth arrives. That's timing. The 2026 World Cup will mint the first generation of serious prediction market traders. Most will start on sportsbooks. The ones who do their research will end up on POTS. From trusting the house to trusting the market. From locked capital to capital efficiency. From punting to positioning. POTS MARKET POTS MONEY, the World Cup just became a DeFi event.

KIMMY OF GOOD LIFE 😍

21,955 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

I Actually Want the Crypto Market to Crash, Here’s Why Everyone is praying for crypto to pump. I'm hoping for the exact opposite, and here's why. People are waiting for the CLARITY Act to pass and the Fed to cut rates so crypto explodes. I want it delayed. Keep the market down a little longer. Here's why that sounds crazy but isn't. When the market is down is exactly when you get to accumulate at cheap prices. You don't walk into a store hoping the price is high. If you want a quality product, you want it cheap. Assets are no different. But in investing people flip it. They want their bags expensive while they're still trying to buy more. That's trading with your emotions, way too attached to your portfolio. If you truly believed in your investments, you'd want what I want: more money into cheaper assets. That's how this actually works, not the other way around. Flip your perspective and you make money. Stay emotional, blame everyone else, and you stay exactly where you are. Follow for more.

I Actually Want the Crypto Market to Crash, Here’s Why Everyone is praying for crypto to pump. I'm hoping for the exact opposite, and here's why. People are waiting for the CLARITY Act to pass and the Fed to cut rates so crypto explodes. I want it delayed. Keep the market down a little longer. Here's why that sounds crazy but isn't. When the market is down is exactly when you get to accumulate at cheap prices. You don't walk into a store hoping the price is high. If you want a quality product, you want it cheap. Assets are no different. But in investing people flip it. They want their bags expensive while they're still trying to buy more. That's trading with your emotions, way too attached to your portfolio. If you truly believed in your investments, you'd want what I want: more money into cheaper assets. That's how this actually works, not the other way around. Flip your perspective and you make money. Stay emotional, blame everyone else, and you stay exactly where you are. Follow for more.

Alexander Lorenzo

13,602 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

Marc Andreessen explains the 3 Necessities for Start-up Success: "The general criteria for a successful high-tech startup, in my view, you see different sort of rules of thumb from different people. But the three big things you always come back to are, is there a big market? And by the way, that comes in two parts. Is there a big existing market that you think you can go after and sort of displace incumbents or do you believe there will be a new market that will be big? So big market. Is there a fundamental technology or economic change that causes you to basically justify having a new company? And that's really important. And the way I always think about that is, is there a 10X change happening in the technology landscape? Is something 10X faster or 10X cheaper or 10X better? And if it's not 10X, we as both VCs and entrepreneurs, we really have to ask ourselves like, is it really worth doing? Because it's really hard. I mean, it's really hard to start new companies. new companies generally shouldn't exist. Existing companies are usually pretty good at what they do. And so for a new company to exist, it not only has to like come in and go into business and bring a product to market, but it has to bring a product to market that's so much better than what already exists that it punches through the sort of status quo. And most customers in most markets are pretty happy buying from the current suppliers and so there has to be a real kind of edge on the thing and we look for that in either a technology change, usually a technology change or an economic change. which are often the same thing. And then the third is team. Is the team outstanding? And if you think about this as an entrepreneur, it becomes a question of the founding team. Some companies are solo founders and they can work, but generally most of us, like myself, we're human beings, we're mortal. You want to have a founding team of complementary skill sets. And so you want to have at least one super strong technologist, quite possibly more than one. Some of the best startups are actually more than one founding technologist and then it often helps to have somebody who's like a product or who's a market or sales person or has a sort of really good understanding of business on the team, certainly helps a lot. And so we sort of look at market, product, and team. And the reality is you need all three. I would say, interestingly, if you're going to compromise as an investor, if we're going to compromise on one of those, it would actually be the product. And the reason I say that is because a great market is a lot easier to make up for with iterative product execution than a poor market. Because the problem with a poor market, a small market, is even if you do a great job on the product, there just aren't that many customers. It's hard to ever get big."

Founder Mode

39,005 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

BASECASE $CASE IS NOW LIVE! CA: 0x91Af643fc6db5eF56c3001a988bBbe40af6E2CcB Crypto, sports, weather, politics - or even a casual bet between friends. If you can think of it, you can find (or create) a market on BaseCase. The best part? There’s no house setting the odds and extracting value. Participants trade directly against each other, in open, permissionless markets - not against a centralized intermediary designed to always win. But BaseCase is so much more than another prediction market. $CASE underpins a permissionless prediction ecosystem built around a core constraint: liquidity - the factor that has limited prediction markets’ ability to scale, remain efficient, and reach real-world relevance. TLDR? BaseCase is building the base layer all prediction markets will come to rely on - from market leaders like Polymarket, Binance, and MetaMask through to new and emerging platforms. At its core is the $CASE token - unlocking up to 50% of protocol fees, enhanced creator rewards, priority access, and much more to come. BaseCase’s TGE has officially occurred, and $CASE is now live for trading on Pineapple $PAPPLE. Buy $CASE now: #base #tge #seed #papple #launch #crypto

BASECASE $CASE IS NOW LIVE! CA: 0x91Af643fc6db5eF56c3001a988bBbe40af6E2CcB Crypto, sports, weather, politics - or even a casual bet between friends. If you can think of it, you can find (or create) a market on BaseCase. The best part? There’s no house setting the odds and extracting value. Participants trade directly against each other, in open, permissionless markets - not against a centralized intermediary designed to always win. But BaseCase is so much more than another prediction market. $CASE underpins a permissionless prediction ecosystem built around a core constraint: liquidity - the factor that has limited prediction markets’ ability to scale, remain efficient, and reach real-world relevance. TLDR? BaseCase is building the base layer all prediction markets will come to rely on - from market leaders like Polymarket, Binance, and MetaMask through to new and emerging platforms. At its core is the $CASE token - unlocking up to 50% of protocol fees, enhanced creator rewards, priority access, and much more to come. BaseCase’s TGE has officially occurred, and $CASE is now live for trading on Pineapple $PAPPLE. Buy $CASE now: #base #tge #seed #papple #launch #crypto

Launch with Seed | $SEED

19,303 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

In my last podcast, I had mentioned a custom Google sheet that I maintain to get a sense of market breadth. Not sure why I didn't open it up earlier but here it is - I have enlisted stocks above 1000Cr market cap in the Tickers sheet. A script runs at different times in the day to pick up aggregates that are appended to the History sheet. Let me know if you find any errors in the formulae or have suggestions for new additions that might be insightful. Also curious to hear about how you use the data in this sheet for your own trades. I personally rely on the % of stocks above 40DMA number to figure out strength in the market. During periods where I am not actively going through charts, I check if this number is above or below 40 to get a general sense of whether this is a strong market or not. Happy trading! 😃

In my last podcast, I had mentioned a custom Google sheet that I maintain to get a sense of market breadth. Not sure why I didn't open it up earlier but here it is - I have enlisted stocks above 1000Cr market cap in the Tickers sheet. A script runs at different times in the day to pick up aggregates that are appended to the History sheet. Let me know if you find any errors in the formulae or have suggestions for new additions that might be insightful. Also curious to hear about how you use the data in this sheet for your own trades. I personally rely on the % of stocks above 40DMA number to figure out strength in the market. During periods where I am not actively going through charts, I check if this number is above or below 40 to get a general sense of whether this is a strong market or not. Happy trading! 😃

Ashwin Raghavan

159,605 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

The All-In Podcast

98,290 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

I kept thinking about one thing while creating this video… What happens when the world’s biggest sports event collides with a decentralized prediction market built for real-time participation? Not just watching football anymore. Not just reacting after matches anymore. But millions of people moving with the same moments together in real time through liquidity, probability, strategy, and market participation. I wanted this video to feel like a glimpse into what that future could actually look like. The 2026 World Cup is coming. POTS MARKET is launching soon. And honestly… this feels bigger than a normal prediction platform. This feels like football, market psychology, and Web3 infrastructure all colliding at the same moment. “Same World Cup. Different Game.” Explore more about the future of prediction markets here: Now take a few minutes to watch the video carefully from start to finish 👇 #PotsMarket #WorldCup2026 #PredictionMarkets

I kept thinking about one thing while creating this video… What happens when the world’s biggest sports event collides with a decentralized prediction market built for real-time participation? Not just watching football anymore. Not just reacting after matches anymore. But millions of people moving with the same moments together in real time through liquidity, probability, strategy, and market participation. I wanted this video to feel like a glimpse into what that future could actually look like. The 2026 World Cup is coming. POTS MARKET is launching soon. And honestly… this feels bigger than a normal prediction platform. This feels like football, market psychology, and Web3 infrastructure all colliding at the same moment. “Same World Cup. Different Game.” Explore more about the future of prediction markets here: Now take a few minutes to watch the video carefully from start to finish 👇 #PotsMarket #WorldCup2026 #PredictionMarkets

𝗠𝗜𝗥𝗘𝗟 𝗩𝗘𝗚𝗔𝗥

21,657 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!

A lot of discussion and announcements around prediction markets: purely for fun, I've built a demo app. Meet Betcha, my attempt to broaden the prediction markets TAM. 📊 Current state: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are powerful truth-seeking tools because money on the line and arbitrage keep prices honest as new information hits. Most participants today are traders and bettors who are very fee-sensitive, so raising fees will be challenging. Growth has to come from much higher volume, which is achievable, but it will take time. 🏛️ Sportsbook/Regulatory Environment: Because CFTC-regulated event contracts create a potential path into some states that have not legalized sports betting, prediction-market rails can help sportsbooks reach markets they previously could not. Reframing parlays and prop-style outcomes as “predictions” is clever and expands reach from zero revenue in states where they can't operate sportsbooks to something. Still, these products will likely remain volume-constrained, struggling to match a traditional sportsbook’s vig. The positive is that the sportsbooks won't be getting gouged by state-level taxes as part of the process of leveraging prediction markets vs. sportsbooks. I still think this will be an exciting category that emerges, but it will take time. I want to see Polymarket build its own PM sports-specific app to compete here vs whitelabel (cc: Shayne Coplan 🦅) 📈 Market expansion thesis: Stop optimizing just for traders. Try building for the culture that lives on TikTok/Twitter/Reddit. They're already making predictions - just give them a scoreboard and an easier way to participate in returns. 🎪 Behavioral unlock: The mass market will never identify as "bettors." They want social proof, bragging rights, and gamified experiences. Critically, they're far less fee-sensitive when entertainment value is high, and that's the opportunity Prediction markets have a volume and take rate dilemma, and I think fun consumer apps like this can help solve it. Fine-tune the algorithm to serve event contracts I actually care about, let me lock in a pick fast, and build simple social features on top. Anyway, here's my demo. Any feedback/discussion is welcome!

Ryan Wyatt

83,651 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Polymarket front run bot Spent the last month building the backend for this bot which essentially acts the same way that high frequency trading bots work in the stock market It waits for a market buy order to come through where there is thin liquidity in the order book meaning their market buy will push the price up of a YES/NO contract meaning that if my bot buys the contracts first then I can sell them at the high price to the market buy order before their orders have gone through Prediction markets are still early enough to find opportunities like this, just like how the early days of stock trading similar bots to this were invented It is essentially an arbitrage strategy, will make the bot public and free to a few people tomorrow so turn on notifications so you don’t miss it

Polymarket front run bot Spent the last month building the backend for this bot which essentially acts the same way that high frequency trading bots work in the stock market It waits for a market buy order to come through where there is thin liquidity in the order book meaning their market buy will push the price up of a YES/NO contract meaning that if my bot buys the contracts first then I can sell them at the high price to the market buy order before their orders have gone through Prediction markets are still early enough to find opportunities like this, just like how the early days of stock trading similar bots to this were invented It is essentially an arbitrage strategy, will make the bot public and free to a few people tomorrow so turn on notifications so you don’t miss it

Ethan

71,943 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten