Mark
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Curious about global affairs and finance Enthusiast of gold, silver, commodities and resource stocks
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THE GAS FIELD UNDER DONBAS: THE REAL REASON FOR THE WAR?- EUROPE IS THE BIG LOSER Want the real reason for this war? Follow the gas. In 2010 the Yuzivska field was mapped under Donetsk and Kharkiv. Early estimates said 2 to 4 trillion cubic meters. Europe used about 500 billion cubic meters a year. That prize sits in the same belt where the hardest fighting later locked in. THE PRIZE ➡️ Donbas is the Donetsk Coal Basin. About 130 coal seams. Many packed with methane. ➡️ Next to them sits Yuzivska. Tight gas. ➡️ Shell signed a deal worth up to $10 billion in 2013. Chevron took a second block the same year. ➡️ Full development never happened. Last wells on Yuzivska were around 2017. Then the ground became too dangerous. Shell left. THE RESET ➡️ After 2014 Kyiv lined up with NATO and Western energy firms. ➡️ Money went into a fortified line facing the Donbas. For years the east was shelled. ➡️ In late 2021 tens of thousands of extra troops moved east. Russian figures said 90,000 to 125,000. ➡️ Moscow cited UN Article 51 and sent in forces. The fight kept returning to Donetsk and Bakhmut — right on that orange gas block. THE BILL ➡️ The goal on the Western side was to cut Russia out of Europe’s gas market. ➡️ U.S. and EU taxpayers are now on the hook for about $350 to $400 billion. ➡️ Ukraine’s population in government areas fell from about 41 million to the high 20s or low 30s million. Six million fled. Deaths now beat births by more than three to one. THE BOTTOM LINE Europe is now the big loser. They pounced on the gas beneath the Donbass. The result: a bill of 400 billion dollars and a country that is losing its population. What’s more, Europe also lost its supply of cheap Russian pipeline gas due to the "mysterious" Nord Stream explosion, and now, on top of that, the disaster in the Middle East, where only extremely expensive US LNG and Norwegian gas remain. #DonbasGas #Yuzivska #FollowTheMoney #TightGas #400Billion #EnergyWar HT: YouTube Earth and Space Sciences X
Mark46,617 просмотров • 18 часов назад
PAPE: IRAN JUST GRABBED THE OIL ARTERY — NEXT STOP: THE GULF BANKS AND IRAN BECOMES A WORLD POWER. University of Chicago professor Robert Pape sat down on "At the Waters Edge" on September 13 and said the last three days were not noise. In his read, Iran just tightened a grip on the oil routes that feed the world — and the next move is not more missiles. It is politics over the governments that sit on hundreds of billions in U.S. Treasuries. THE WEEKEND SHIFT ➡️ Pape says the Houthis now appear to control the Red Sea, and those three days are “shaking the world.” He calls it pretty bad, and getting worse before it gets better. ➡️ The East-West pipeline that was supposed to bypass Hormuz has been hit and shut, he says, so there are no loadings at Yanbu. That is not a side show. The host put it near 4% of global oil. Pape did not blink. THE PLAN HE SAYS WAS ALREADY ON THE CALENDAR ➡️ On June 15 he mapped Iran’s “period of maximum leverage” as three buffers running down: the U.S. SPR, China’s extra buying, and the Houthis. ➡️ Starting July 20, after IRGC advisers landed in Sanaa, the Houthis began hitting Saudi tankers — not random ships. ➡️ Hormuz shipping was already being squeezed again. Then Iran-backed militias in Iraq hit the land pipe. Pape’s line is blunt: this is a coherent, multi-prong offensive, not a weekend accident. THE BYPASS THAT ARRIVED TOO LATE Scott Bessent’s idea that Hormuz becomes “irrelevant in two years” because of new bypasses is, in Pape’s words, three months late and about $300 billion short. ➡️ “Right in front of our eyes they’re becoming a world power.” He does not mean Turkey and Pakistan. He means a Persian Gulf core, then a “security resistance belt” from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea to the Gulf. NO FLEET IS STEAMING IN Europe, he says after Brussels, is not mustering for the Red Sea. It is staring at Ukraine, Russia, and a dark winter at home. ➡️ The U.S. Navy is tapped out in Hormuz. Japan, Britain, and France cannot magically reopen Bab el-Mandeb. Flag officers talking B-2 carpet bombing miss the point he has taught for 30 years: air power without a ground or surface “anvil” just scatters the enemy. The Houthis will not sit in a kill box and wait. THE PRICE PATH HE IS WATCHING ➡️ Oil has gone “straight up” since mid-July. Trump can talk. The tape is not listening. ➡️Diesel, Pape says, is already at a historic U.S. high. Pump prices around $4.30–$4.45 a gallon jumped almost 20 cents in a week. He sees a path over $5, maybe $5.50 — with food riding diesel, not gasoline. ➡️If SPR draws keep the current pace, his sketch has the reserve effectively gone by early April. That is his scenario, not a printed date. WHAT HE SAYS COMES NEXT The last three days, in his framing, already put a tight grip on “our artery of oil.” ➡️ The next six months are political: more influence over frontline Gulf capitals — because those central banks hold the Treasuries. Regime-change logic, he says, is realism 101. If Washington treated it as fair game against Tehran, do not be shocked when Tehran treats Gulf governments the same way. He is describing a trajectory, not announcing a coup. THE BOTTOM LINE Pape’s warning is simple. The off-ramps are gone, the buffers are thinning, and the fight has moved from tankers to the map itself. First the oil artery. Then the governments that sit on the money. Iran is not waiting for a better offer. It is building the leverage while the West argues about who should sail first. #RobertPape #RedSea #Hormuz #Houthis #OilPrices #EnergyCrisis #BombingToWin HT: YouTube At the Waters Edge
Mark42,249 просмотров • 1 день назад
EX CIA Larry Johnson: Lindsey Graham could not have died at home Saturday evening. The Ukraine trip plus return journey makes 8:30pm arrival impossible. Pentagon insiders know the truth. He died in Kiev. The cover story is already exposed by simple schedules. America deserves facts. #LindseyGraham
Mark1,588,033 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
🚨 EX-INSIDER BOMBSHELL: WE CREATED THIS EUROPE ON PURPOSE - CIA BOUGHT STOLTENBERG, RUTTE AND ENTIRE GOVERNMENTS I have never heard the truth stated so directly. Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, retired U.S. Army officer and former Chief of Staff to the Secretary of State, just dropped a confession that should shock any European citizen who is still capable of thinking for themselves. He says America did not merely influence the continent. It deliberately built the Europe we see today. And the receipts are brutal. THE CONFESSION ➡️ “We created the Europe that exists right now on purpose.” ➡️ Wilkerson states it plainly: the CIA, with help from SIS, MI6 and later Mossad, painstakingly crafted the political landscape of Europe in the exact image Washington wanted. ➡️ This was not organic alliance-building. It was a long-term operation. THE BUYING SPREE ➡️ They bought newspaper editors. ➡️ They bought labor-union heads. ➡️ They bought parliamentarians. ➡️ They bought two NATO Secretaries General: Jens Stoltenberg and Mark Rutte. ➡️ They bought whole countries in terms of their political apparatus. HOW THE MACHINE WORKED ➡️ Starting in 2002, billions of dollars flowed through the CIA and USAID. ➡️ Liberal democracy itself was weaponized. ➡️ An Asia scholar once said America taught the dogs to bark. Wilkerson agrees the trainers were American intelligence services. ➡️ Europe barked against Russia, against diplomacy, against its own interests because that is what it had been trained and paid to do. THE STOLTENBERG OPERATION ➡️ Wilkerson was “up close to cheek and jowl” in elevating Jens Stoltenberg. ➡️ Washington watched how malleable he was inside his own government and used him as the center pole from which influence spread to other capitals. ➡️ Stoltenberg calculated correctly: loyalty to the American line would make him the next NATO chief. THE RUTTE PATH ➡️ Dutch media later exposed that Mark Rutte, while prime minister, excused almost anything Israel did, stayed extra-hawkish on Russia, and backed the bombing of Yemen. ➡️ The purpose was clear: look good on the job application for NATO Secretary General. ➡️ Washington had already signaled exactly what qualities it would reward. THE HOLOCAUST LEVERAGE ➡️ With Mossad’s help, the lingering weight of the Holocaust over European politics was deliberately exploited. ➡️ Germany’s strict anti-semitism laws and regulations were shaped with American assistance so the instrument would remain available. THE BOTTOM LINE America spent decades and billions of dollars buying the political class of Europe, installing compliant NATO leaders, and training entire governments to bark on command. Now the same Europe is weaker, more submissive, and still following orders that no longer serve its survival. The creators are finally admitting what they did. This was never an alliance of equals. It was a product. HT: YouTube Glenn Diesen Glenn Diesen #CIABoughtEurope #Stoltenberg #Rutte #NATOExposed #Wilkerson #EuropeOnPurpose #DeepState
Mark423,245 просмотров • 23 дней назад
SEN: CRUDE CAN NO LONGER BALANCE THIS MARKET-UPWARD SPIRAL BETWEEN CRUDE AND PRODUCTS That is one of the best analyses of oil I have seen so far. Dr. Amrita Sen, founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, was asked how much higher crude can run before it hits a new ceiling. Her answer is not a price target. It is a physical warning: the cap was never the crude quote. It was refining margins — and those margins are now so extreme that diesel is pulling oil higher with it. THE REAL CEILING ➡️ Sen says the ceiling for crude “has always been refining margins.” Refined products are the tight piece, not the barrel on the screen. US diesel is already above $6, a record. The diesel crack has been close to $100. ➡️ West-of-Suez refiners still have a fat margin buffer, which is why crude can keep rising even after the first leg of the rally. That is the setup Energy Aspects flagged for months. Products stay expensive. Crude is being dragged up behind them. THE AUGUST INFLECTION On August 20 her house put out a note: the inflection for crude was already here. ➡️ Inventories have drawn down fast since late August. ➡️ Hormuz flows remain disrupted. China is buying again — not at pre-war levels, she stresses, but well above the spring slump that briefly let the market balance. Winter is coming and refiners need the barrels. ➡️ “Crude isn’t going to go down anytime soon.” Headlines will whip the tape up and down. Sen’s base path is still higher. ASIA IS ALREADY CUTTING RUNS Global refining margins look near record highs. Sen says almost all of that strength sits in the United States and Europe. In the East the buffer is gone. Hormuz is still heavily disrupted. A late-August pickup in flows reversed almost immediately. Yanbu loadings fell after Houthi attacks. Dubai backwardation ran to about $30. Freight to move a ship into Hormuz and on to Asia is being quoted around $55 million. ➡️ Asian refiners are the ones feeling the pinch. ➡️ This is a run cut driven by crude availability, not weak product demand. The West can still pay. Asia is starting to lose the crude. THE UPWARD SPIRAL For months, Sen says, crude only balanced because products were “super strong.” That trick is ending. Demand for crude itself is growing while supplies are down. Diesel still has to rise because there is not enough of it. That strength then lifts the barrel underneath it. ➡️ “It’s going to be an upward spiral between crude and products now.” Not a one-day squeeze. A loop. NO BUFFER LEFT Strategic stocks will not rescue this the way politicians talk about volume. ➡️ US and Japanese SPRs are already at record-low levels. The real constraint, Sen says, is not the headline number. It is flow rate from caverns that are running too low to be sustainable, plus the quality of very old crude sitting in those tanks. China’s commercial reserves that were drawn have to be repaid within three months, so some buying is already back. Japan has tendered for 4 million barrels by year-end and 25 million next year — refill at these prices, not cheaper ones. When the MOU was signed and barrels came out, governments and companies got complacent. The story was that OPEC would surge production. Nobody planned the refill. ➡️ Asia rebuilt a little off the June–July lows. In September stocks are already down 25 million barrels — Energy Aspects’ forecast for the entire month. ➡️ “We’re not going to have a buffer.” A crude-availability problem for Asia later in the year is now her base risk, not a tail risk. THE BOTTOM LINE Sen’s map is simple and brutal: products are still the tight market, west-of-Suez margins still let crude rise, Asia is already cutting runs, and the stockpile story is a flow-rate problem being refilled at war prices. Crude is no longer the shock absorber. It is in the spiral. #Oil #Diesel #Hormuz #AmritaSen #EnergyAspects #RefiningMargins #OilInventories
Mark40,046 просмотров • 2 дней назад
NO MORE RED LINES: IRAN JUST ENTERED THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE PHASE OF THE WAR On Sunday, September 6, 2026, the well-connected Prof. Mohammad Marandi from the University of Teheran — a former adviser to Iran’s nuclear negotiation team — told Glenn Diesen the war has changed shape. Washington, he said, keeps failing and then choosing a more aggressive policy instead of an off-ramp. His warning is simple and brutal: if the United States tries to strangle Iran, Tehran will strangle the Gulf. THE NEW PHASE ➡️ Marandi says every time U.S. policy fails, America does not exit. It picks a harsher offensive. ➡️ The 40-day war showed it could not win militarily. Then came siege warfare. Then attempts to take the Strait. Then an MOU that was signed and immediately undermined. Then hot war again. ➡️ Now Treasury Secretary Bessent talks of strangling the country and cutting off the head of the snake. ➡️ “He wants to strangle over 90 million Iranians,” Marandi said. Societal collapse, in his words, “basically means the death of a nation.” NO MORE RED LINES ➡️ After the United States wrecked the MOU, Iran stopped fighting a mostly defensive war. ➡️ A new chair of the Supreme National Security Council took over with a mandate for an offensive approach. ➡️ Marandi says the armed forces now intend to take the initiative. Iranian leaders, including the first vice president, have warned Americans to prepare for “very bleak times.” ➡️ He describes the latest exchange as heavier on Iran’s side: strikes toward Jordan, Kuwait, the Emirates, U.S. naval ships, and U.S.-linked tankers after Washington hit Iranian ports, Larak Island, and three tankers. ➡️ “There are no more red lines. Iran will strike whatever they deem necessary.” ➡️ The shots at U.S. ships, he argues, were a message: Tehran is prepared for total war. THE STRANGLE TRAP ➡️ Bessent can threaten banks and financial institutions. Iran cannot run that kind of sanctions war. ➡️ So Marandi’s thesis is military: if Washington tries to crush the Iranian economy, Iran hits U.S. assets, U.S.-linked assets, and the Gulf partners that fund the war with free jet fuel and paid-for bases. ➡️ Targets could be banks, oil and gas installations, U.S. businesses, even AI centers. ➡️ “If they want to strangle the Iranian economy, then the Iranians will strangle neighboring economies.” WHY THE GULF BREAKS FIRST ➡️ Marandi says the Arab states on the Persian Gulf are already in trouble. They were supposed to deliver billions. Instead they are selling stocks and bonds just to keep the status quo. ➡️ These are not ordinary countries, he said. They are deserts that live on oil and gas, and they are extremely expensive to maintain. ➡️ Saudi Arabia is exposed after hundreds of billions wasted on Yemen and mega-projects that have been shut down. Kuwait and Bahrain, he argues, are particularly vulnerable. All of them are. ➡️ If this phase goes where Bessent’s language points, “these countries will all collapse.” ➡️ Iran remains standing. “It will be ironically the US proxies that will go down.” ➡️ That, he said, would mean the end of energy supplies from the region and a global economic depression. No amount of market manipulation would work after that. THE DEAL THAT ALREADY EXISTS ➡️ The New York Times frames Iran as too confident to negotiate. Marandi’s reply: there is already an agreement. ➡️ “Someone should tell the New York Times that we do actually have an agreement and that it wasn’t Iran that walked away.” ➡️ Iran will not bargain a new deal so Washington can break the last one. The MOU is the red line. It includes Gaza, Yemen, and Iraq. Domestic critics already say Tehran gave too much. ➡️ He says the military advantage is now with Iran: a large new budget, missiles, drones, expanded underground facilities — while the United States struggles to produce air defenses and munitions. THE ELECTION CLOCK ➡️ Marandi does not claim the war is only about November 3. He does say the calendar matters. ➡️ Trump would prefer Iran stay quiet until the vote. Iran, in his view, has the incentive to do the opposite. ➡️ Escalation now, he argues, is good for Iran because a worse result for Trump makes the months after the election harder for Washington. ➡️ A second path to explosion runs through Netanyahu’s bombing in Lebanon. Either Bessent’s squeeze or Israel’s war could light the next fuse. THE BOTTOM LINE Marandi’s map is not a quick win and not a managed squeeze. It is a ladder with no off-ramp: strangle Iran and Iran strangles the Gulf, the proxies fall first, and the global economy goes with them. Unless Trump takes the exit and returns to the deal he already signed, all roads lead to economic crisis. #IranWar #Marandi #Hormuz #Bessent #GulfCollapse #NoRedLines #OilShock HT: YouTube Glenn Diesen Seyed Mohammad Marandi Glenn Diesen
Mark107,946 просмотров • 9 дней назад
“NO. NO, THEY WILL NOT”: US ERASED CHINA’S CLAIM — SMEARED INTERNATIONAL LAW AS CRIMINAL Energy Secretary Chris Wright stood in Caracas and described a 100-year grab of 17 fields — about 65 billion barrels — as “commerce over conflict.” Then he said the quiet part out loud. China, he claimed, keeps no claim on the oil and no claim on the cash. Beijing has already answered. Those contracts did not die because an American official talked over them. THE CONFESSION ➡️ Wright was asked if any of these barrels will pay back Chinese debt. China is still owed billions. The barrels were the collateral. ➡️ His answer: “No… these fields will be developed for the benefit of the Venezuelan people, for the benefit of Americans.” Then the only sentence that matters. ➡️ “China won’t have any claims of production or revenue related to this deal.” ➡️ “No. No, they will not.” That is not a restructuring. That is a third party announcing that someone else’s paper no longer exists. THE SMEAR Wright did not argue the contracts. He dirtied the counterparties. ➡️ Some of the blocks, he said, were “Russian partnerships or Chinese partnerships or, frankly, criminal partnerships.” Later he put Chinese firms in the same breath as “criminal gangs associated with Maduro.” ➡️ Then the doctrine: the United States is “displacing those hostile foreign actors,” bringing in American companies and “rule of law.” THE COLLISION China’s answer is not a tweet. It is the Foreign Ministry, twice this week. ➡️ Guo Jiakun on 1 September and again on 3 September: China–Venezuela cooperation is protected by international law and by the laws of both countries. It does not concern any third party. China’s lawful rights must be protected. ➡️Washington is not a party to those contracts. A raid does not dissolve them. A new government does not dissolve them. A press availability in Caracas does not dissolve them. THE BOTTOM LINE Wright did not buy China out. He did not win in court. He grouped Chinese paper with criminal gangs and declared the claim dead on camera. What will China’s next move be? #VenezuelaOil #ChrisWright #ChinaContracts #65BillionBarrels #EnergyWar #OilGeopolitics #MonroeDoctrine
Mark133,410 просмотров • 11 дней назад
FORMER NATO SUPREME COMMANDER: THIS WAR IS NOW EXISTENTIAL FOR US HEGEMONY — NO EXIT ALLOWED Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark just laid out the real thinking inside Washington. This is no longer about Iran. It is about whether the United States remains the global hegemon or watches its power collapse in real time. Stopping is not an option. That is the hard line now being drawn. THE EXISTENTIAL STAKES ➡️ Clark makes it clear: if America pulls back and lets Iran keep control of the Strait of Hormuz, the hit to US global leadership is permanent. ➡️ He warns it would damage American deterrence, weaken influence in Asia, and undermine the security of Europe in one stroke. ➡️ This is the decision point. Failure here is not a temporary setback. It is the end of the post-1945 order. THE NO-EXIT REALITY ➡️ Clark rejects any idea of simply walking away or signing a weaker deal. ➡️ “Pulling back, that’s no good,” he states without hesitation. ➡️ An MOU worse than the last one would signal American weakness to every rival watching. ➡️ China and Russia are already feeling good about the current trajectory. Clark says they should not be allowed to celebrate further. THE STRATEGIC TRAP ➡️ There is no easy military solution, yet retreat is worse. ➡️ The near-term fight must stay focused on keeping the Strait open and isolating the theater of operations. ➡️ Any pause only gives Iran time to rebuild, rearm, and dig in deeper. ➡️ Clark insists the longer-term threat of Iranian missiles and nuclear capability cannot be ignored either. THE BOTTOM LINE Wesley Clark is not speaking as a pundit. He is speaking as a former NATO Supreme Commander who understands exactly how the deep state and neoconservative core in Washington now view this conflict. This war has become existential for American global power. Stopping is no longer on the table. HT: YouTube Piers Morgan Uncensored #WesleyClark #IranWar #USHegemony #NoExit #GlobalLeadership #StraitOfHormuz #AmericanPower
Mark422,674 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
JEFF CURRIE: GIVE IRAN THE STRAIT AND THE DOLLAR DIES Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs head of commodities and lifelong insider of the dollar system, just laid out the one line America cannot cross. Handing control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran is not a tactical retreat. It is the formal end of the United States as global hegemon and the death of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. THE GRAND BARGAIN THAT BUILT THE SYSTEM ➡️ In 1945 the United States made a deal the world still lives under: we protect every major shipping lane with our navy so you use our dollar and recycle your money through New York. ➡️ Oil was the strategic commodity that made the bargain stick. ➡️ After Nixon broke the gold link in 1971 the same bargain became the petrodollar system that still funds American living standards today. THE HORMUZ RED LINE ➡️ Currie is blunt: if the United States walks away and lets Iran and Oman manage the strait under any fee structure, the rest of the planet sees the protector has quit. ➡️ Every other chokepoint on earth immediately becomes fair game. ➡️ The Fifth Fleet would then need Iranian permission to enter or leave its own base in Bahrain—an image that ends the illusion of sea control overnight. THE EXORBITANT PRIVILEGE AT RISK ➡️ Currie points to Switzerland right now: a 30-year fixed mortgage at 50 basis points because global capital floods into a safe currency. ➡️ That is the privilege America still enjoys. ➡️ The United States currently spends 7 percent more than it produces. Remove the forced global demand for dollars and that gap becomes pure economic pain. THE HISTORICAL TRUTH NO ONE WANTS TO SAY ➡️ No previous hegemon—Britain, Spain, or any other—was forced out of the world’s most important sea lanes and remained the hegemon. ➡️ Currie is clear: you can retreat to the Monroe Doctrine and defend only the Western Hemisphere, but then you are no longer the global power and the dollar is no longer the reserve currency. ➡️ Those two outcomes cannot coexist. THE BOTTOM LINE America can lose battles. It cannot lose the Strait of Hormuz and still claim to run the system that has defined the last eighty years. Once the world sees the United States no longer guarantees free navigation, the privilege that keeps the American consumer alive begins its irreversible decline. #HormuzRedLine #DollarHegemony #JeffCurrie #Petrodollar #USHegemony #StraitOfHormuz #ReserveCurrency HT: YouTube Mario Nafwal
Mark422,973 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
WHY CRUDE IS RALLYING: CHINA IS BUYING THE MARGIN: OIL IS NOW A 100% PROFIT MACHINE Veteran commodity trader Jeff Currie says the oil rally is not a mystery. China started buying crude again for one reason: profit. Buy cheap barrels. Sell expensive diesel and gasoline. That bid is what is lifting the market now. THE REAL SIGNAL ➡️ “Nobody consumes oil,” Currie says. “They consume diesel and gasoline.” The headline barrel around $90 to $94 is the noise. The product barrel is the signal. In his telling, diesel was running near $189 while crude looked “cheap.” THE CHINA TRADE ➡️ China saw a crack near $106 to $107 a barrel and went after it. Buy oil near $90. Sell the product at a profit that Currie calls roughly 100% on the barrel. Why would you not? ➡️ “The Chinese are going, hey, we’re taking advantage of this.” They were not exporting product the same way. Then the margin exploded. Now they are buying crude they can barely find. That scramble is putting a bid under oil. THE MARKET PROOF ➡️ Russian ESPO crude into China was trading at a $7 premium to Brent. That is not a soft bid. That is China paying up for barrels that feed the product machine. Currie says look at price action, not talking-point flow numbers. The spread itself is the tell. WHAT COMES NEXT ➡️ He thinks the fat diesel crack starts to leak back into crude. China chasing those barrels is part of why. His trade framing is simple: long the crude, short the crack, as the profit gets redistributed into the oil price. THE BOTTOM LINE Oil is rising now because China is buying the margin, not because the world suddenly “needs more oil.” Cheap crude plus a $107 product spread is a profit machine. That machine is running. #JeffCurrie #ChinaOil #DieselCrack #CrudeRally #OilPrices #HardAssets #EnergyMarkets #ChinaOil #DieselCrack HT: YouTube David Lin
Mark83,478 просмотров • 10 дней назад
IRAN FIRED BALLISTIC MISSILES AT A U.S. CARRIER — NANCE SAYS IT WAS A WARNING, NOT A KILL SHOT CENTCOM admitted Iran fired ballistic missiles — not cruise missiles — at a U.S. aircraft carrier near Hormuz. The USS Washington executed an evasion maneuver. IRGC then claimed the carrier and a destroyer were hit, damaged, and forced to flee. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy senior chief and naval intelligence officer, sat with Mario Nawfal and drew a hard line between the shot, the propaganda, and what it would actually take to sink a carrier. THE SHOT ➡️ CENTCOM confirmed ballistic missiles were aimed at the carrier group, and the Washington maneuvered to avoid them. ➡️ IRGC claimed both the carrier and a destroyer were damaged and driven out of the engagement area. ➡️ Nance’s split verdict is blunt: he believes they were forced to leave the box. He does not believe they were damaged. THE HALF-TRUTH ➡️ Nance says Iran’s pattern is always the same: verify one real act, then pile a lie on top of it. ➡️ “The best form of propaganda is a truth, a half-truth capitalized by a lie.” ➡️ That is why a few ballistic missiles get sold as a carrier kill. The launch happened. The Hollywood ending did not. WHY FIVE MISSILES IS NOT A SINK ATTEMPT ➡️ Mario argued Iran would not try a real carrier kill with two or three rounds. Nance said Mario won that debate. ➡️ A serious attempt, in Nance’s math, looks like a massive coordinated salvo — he used the extreme of hundreds of missiles plus drones punching through the screen. ➡️ Five ballistic missiles is not that. “That’s not even attempting it.” ➡️ He calls yesterday’s fire technically warning shots: get off Fujairah, sit farther south near Salalah, do not loiter inside easy range. WHAT ACTUALLY KILLS A CARRIER ➡️ Ballistic missiles launched from Iran give the Navy about 20 to 30 minutes of warning. Computers plot the box while the bird is still climbing. ➡️ Aegis destroyers sit on the carrier with dozens of interceptors. Hitting those escorts is already hard. Hitting the carrier through them with a handful of rounds is harder. ➡️ Carriers die from fire, not from a clean hole in the paint. Nance’s yardstick is the Forrestal blaze and World War II hanger-deck disasters: a lucky pierce, ammunition cooking off, a conflagration eating stem to stern. ➡️ One or two hits can wreck aircraft, shut the flight deck, and send the ship running for Diego Garcia. That is not the same as sinking 6,000 sailors. ➡️ If Iran ever “lost their mind” and actually burned a carrier, Nance’s read is the United States does not climb back down the ladder. A carrier is one-twelfth of U.S. strike aviation. That is the line he will not treat as a game. THE NEW REALITY IN HORMUZ ➡️ This is not Nance’s young-sailor Gulf, when the Navy hunted Boghammers and expected to dominate the strait. ➡️ Hormuz at its narrowest is 21 to 32 nautical miles. You can see both sides. Iran can now touch U.S. ships in a way almost nobody believed before this war. ➡️ “Now they have the capacity to sink us, not just hurt us.” ➡️ That is why he is glad CENTCOM’s naval side is not taking dumb risk just to look tough. THE BOTTOM LINE Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. carrier. The carrier moved. The damage claim is propaganda stacked on a real shot. Five missiles is a warning. A real kill shot is a different war — and Nance’s point is that Iran already proved it can reach the deck if someone is stupid enough to keep the ship in the wrong box. #Iran #USSWashington #Hormuz #MalcolmNance #USNavy #BallisticMissiles #CarrierGroup HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal Mario Nawfal
Mark71,392 просмотров • 9 дней назад
Veteran oil trader Eckard just called it: After Aug 22, crude is primed for a sharp upward jump. Here’s why you need to listen.
Mark196,590 просмотров • 26 дней назад
THE REAL REASON EUROPE IS DEINDUSTRIALIZING Everyone argues about German green targets and the nuclear phase-out. Almost nobody starts with the missing fuel. Nord Stream 1 and 2 were built for 110 billion cubic meters a year. That is about 1,200 terawatt-hours of heat, or roughly 600 TWh of electricity. Call it 80 nuclear plants. No industrial economy absorbs that loss and stays the same. THE ENERGY THAT VANISHED ➡️ Combined design capacity of Nord Stream 1 and 2 was 110 bcm a year. ➡️ That is ~1,200 TWh thermal and ~600 TWh electric. ➡️ 600 TWh is France’s nuclear fleet plus about twenty more reactors. ➡️ After the pipelines were destroyed, that firm energy base was gone. 40 GAS PLANTS SHORT BY 2030 ➡️Germany's coal-exit law demanded a mid-August report on whether the power system still works without coal. That report never came. The reason is not a paperwork delay. ➡️Officials already know the replacement gas plants are not secured, prices will rise. ➡️ The grid agency and the ministry already admit the gap: 40 gas plants missing by 2030, 70 by 2035. THE KILL SWITCH: BERLIN'S BACKUP PLAN IS CUTTING FACTORIES ➡️ The quiet backup is not new baseload. It is a platform to order factories down when the grid is about to fail. ➡️ Plants above roughly 8 GWh a year must register. In a November wind drought they lose power, without compensation. ➡️ Homes stay on. Industry takes the cut. THE BOTTOM LINE Green slogans and the nuclear exit are the debate. The arithmetic is the cause. Europe lost an energy base the size of 80 reactors, then kept dismantling what was left. Eighty missing plants do not lie. A rich industrial country that plans to shut its factories when the wind stops is sending one signal to the world: do not build here.
Mark78,993 просмотров • 15 дней назад
RICK RULE: THE 2029 OIL SHORTAGE IS ALREADY BAKED IN Veteran commodity investor Rick Rule is long oil and gas for the decade ahead, not the next headline. Today’s price is an artificial squeeze. The shortage that matters hits in 2029 and 2030, when years of skipped maintenance show up in actual barrels. THE $1 BILLION DAILY HOLE ➡️ The industry has underinvested in sustaining capital by more than $1 billion a day for years. ➡️ Gulf producers are spending even less while facilities get damaged. ➡️ U.S. shale wells deliver most of their value in the first 18 months. Stop drilling and output falls faster than conventional fields. THE WRONG TRADE ➡️ Markets reward dividends and buybacks over new wells. Those companies are liquidating themselves. ➡️ Institutions bought the peak-demand story. Forty-five years and $10 trillion of alternatives cut oil’s share from 83% to 81%. ➡️ Demand is still rising. A billion people still have no primary electricity. ➡️ “If you want to buy something, wishing for price appreciation sounds strange.” Think four to six years, not six weeks. THE BOTTOM LINE Rule is not trading the Strait. He is positioned for the supply hole that deferred capex and shale decline rates will open later this decade. The shortage is already in the ground. Most portfolios are not. #OilStocks #RickRule #EnergyInvesting #OilShortage #Exxon #ShaleDecline #ContrarianInvesting HT: YouTube Stansberry Research Stansberry Research Rick Rule
Mark99,971 просмотров • 20 дней назад
Bombshell: Trump offered billions to buy Iran’s IRGC chief and break the Guard from inside. Vahidi refused on principle. The info went straight to the Supreme Leader. Unimpeachable source. Front-page material they’re ignoring. HT: YouTube Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom Pepe Escobar
Mark122,737 просмотров • 26 дней назад
IRAN WAR DISASTER: THE WORLD JUST LEARNED HOW WEAK THE US HAND REALLY IS A 20-year Defense Department veteran who spent a decade on missiles and missile defense just delivered a blunt assessment. This war is a disaster for the United States. Not because of any single battlefield loss, but because the entire world can now see the real capabilities of the American military—and those capabilities are not impressive at all. THE UNSUSTAINABLE STANDOFF ➡️ The United States will not invade and the other side knows it, forcing every strike from outside the borders. ➡️ Long-range weapons arrive with limited payloads after burning the fuel needed for hundreds of miles—they are not civilization-ending tools. ➡️ A typical destroyer shares 128 cells across many missions; long-range interceptors form only a fraction of that load. ➡️ Multiple interceptors are fired at each threat. After the first ten to fourteen days the sky filled with eight, ten, even twelve interceptors for every single ballistic missile. ➡️ There is no floating resupply ship. Ships must sail to distant bases such as Diego Garcia—nearly a week one way—plus additional days to reload. ➡️ Every expended magazine removes a ship from the fight for roughly two and a half weeks. THE INDUSTRIAL FAILURE ➡️ Modern missile systems are proprietary and highly specialized. ➡️ Factories cannot be converted overnight the way they were in World War II. ➡️ Even with unlimited funding there is no trained workforce ready to surge production. ➡️ Building real capacity would take years under the best conditions. THE STRATEGIC COST ➡️ The highest levels of the uniformed military understood the stockpile problem from the earliest days. ➡️ Resources were shifted away from other regional partners who had spent years and political capital aligning with the United States. ➡️ Those partners discovered the true value of those relationships under pressure. ➡️ The entire region and every watching power now has a clearer picture of American constraints. THE FATAL REVEAL ➡️ Potential adversaries no longer have to guess what the United States can actually do in a real high-intensity fight. ➡️ The previous aura of overwhelming technological superiority has been stripped away. ➡️ Russia, China, and every other power watching now possess hard data on American limits. THE BOTTOM LINE This war is a disaster for the United States precisely because the sheen is gone. Everybody can now see the real capabilities—and they are not impressive at all. The uncertainty that once protected American power has been replaced by cold, measurable limits. #SheenIsOff #IranWarDisaster #USCapabilities #MilitaryLimitsExposed #StockpileReality #DiegoGarcia #StrategicExposure HT: YouTube Tucker Carlson Network
Mark152,843 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
IRAN CHECKMATED THE U.S. NAVY - NAVAL MINES IN FUJAIRAH Former U.S. Navy intelligence officer Malcolm Nance just explained the move almost nobody is naming. Two Iranian Fajr-5 rocket launchers appeared on tiny Larak Island. They were not there to pound the Strait of Hormuz. They were there to reach Fujairah — the crowded tanker parking lot the mine-clearance announcement never covered. THE SPECIAL OPERATION ➡️ Iran barged two near-18-wheeler Fajr-5 launchers onto Larak Island in a clandestine lift. ➡️ Not Hormuz Island. Not giant Qeshm. The small island that suddenly puts Fujairah inside range. THE WEAPON ➡️ These are not the old spiked sea mines people picture. ➡️ A Fajr-5 rocket carries a smart mine in the warhead, flies ballistically up to 130 kilometers, then the warhead sinks and hovers. ➡️ It listens. It reads magnetic signatures. It waits for the ship it was programmed to kill. ➡️ When it detonates it blows a gas bubble under the keel and lets physics break the hull. WHY ONLY LARAK WORKED ➡️ From inland Iran you can already hit the southern Omani traffic scheme. That was never the point. ➡️ You cannot reach Fujairah or the Ras al-Khaimah approaches from Hormuz, Qeshm, or a daylight highway run toward Bandar Jask. ➡️ Maximum range is about 90 nautical miles. Larak is the one board square that covers both UAE coasts and the cluster of ships waiting to dash around Musandam. THE FUJAIRAH TRAP ➡️ Fujairah holds a minimum of 100 oil tankers at any moment. With ship-to-ship transfers it can be 150. ➡️ Days earlier the U.S. Navy announced it had cleared every mine from the Strait of Hormuz channels. ➡️ Nance’s read was blunt: hold my tea. Mine the parking lot instead. No small boats. No dhows. Just rockets. ➡️ Ten or fifteen of those mines in Fujairah harbor and nobody knows they are there until a tanker hits one. THE STRIKE CAME LATE ➡️ The launchers were likely spotted by a thermal plume after they already fired. ➡️ That means the orders, the cave storage, the highway, the barge, and the setup were all missed. ➡️ Once the booster burns out they are just pipes falling into the water. You can draw a box. You cannot see the mine. ➡️ One to twenty-four mines may already be sitting in the approaches. The first sweeper may be a very large crude carrier. THE BOTTOM LINE Iran did not need to sink a destroyer to put America in check. It only needed invisible mines where a hundred tankers sleep — after Washington declared the strait clean. The board was already played before the strike landed. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal #Fujairah #LarakIsland #IranMines #StraitOfHormuz #OilTankers #MalcolmNance #USNavy
Mark60,161 просмотров • 15 дней назад
TROY ECKARD: TRADERS STOPPED BELIEVING WASHINGTON ON OIL Veteran oil trader Troy Eckard has a blunt read on the tape. For five months Washington has said it has total control of the Strait of Hormuz and of Iran. Oil still went from $66 to $86. Eckard says traders are done believing the weekly victory messages — and they are pricing higher prices for much longer. THE MESSAGE THAT STOPPED WORKING ➡️ Eckard points back to an old political line: “Read my lips.” Promises that do not match reality get punished. ➡️ President Trump has said almost weekly that each new strike pins Iran to the mat. ➡️ Iran keeps fighting. Deadlines pass. A short barrage follows. Then it is back to square one. ➡️ When officials say “we have control” and the other side keeps coming, credibility collapses. THE OIL MATH ➡️ Five and a half months ago crude was $66. Today it is $86.31 and still rising. ➡️ The real range has been $77 to $118. Nobody has called it right. ➡️ Bakken, Guyana, and Africa are adding maybe 350,000 barrels a day. The Strait used to move 5 to 15 million. ➡️ That gap does not close fast. A war premium of $10 to $35 a barrel is now baked into every cargo. ➡️ Reserve dumps already hit the market. Price did not break. WHY ECKARD SEES HIGHER FOR LONGER ➡️ Chance oil falls back under $65 in the next 24 months? He puts it at zero. ➡️ New barrels cost $20 to $30 more than today’s price. That lifts the global average. ➡️ Even if families cut back, AI, data centers, and factories still pull demand higher for years. ➡️ $86 is the soft side of this market, not the ceiling. ➡️ Traders, he says, should lock in $86, $90, or $95. One extra shock in the Middle East and crude jumps extra $25 to $50. THE BOTTOM LINE Washington is still selling control. The tape is selling a long war and expensive oil. Eckard’s call is simple: stop waiting for $65. Price the next five years, not the next press conference. Higher for longer is now the base case. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #TroyEckard #OilPrices #Hormuz #HigherForLonger #WTI #EnergyCrisis #WarPremium
Mark55,389 просмотров • 14 дней назад
⚠️ BUCKLE UP: 2026 GEOPOLITICAL PREDICTIONS FROM A PROFESSOR WHO GOT TRUMP, IRAN, & UKRAINE RIGHT. Professor Jang uses game theory & history to forecast global shifts. His track record is uncanny. Here’s his alarming analysis for 2026. THE GRAND GAME: US vs. CHINA ➡️ The core of 2026 is the U.S.-China relationship. Everything else is secondary. ✅ Trump’s planned state visit to China in April is the pivotal event. The goal? A "grand bargain" to secure the US dollar's dominance. ❌ The U.S. strategy is contradictory: it seeks to coerce China while needing its cooperation. This cannot hold. THE REAL WAR IS FINANCIAL 🔗 The 1971 move off the gold standard created a system where China’s addiction to dollars stabilized the U.S. economy. ⚠️ Now, China is destabilizing that system by internationalizing the Yuan and creating gold-backed corridors. ⚔️ U.S. actions in Venezuela & the Middle East are not just about oil—they are about forcing China to buy resources using dollars, strangling its economy into submission. MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION ➡️ Professor Jang uses a powerful metaphor: two nations on a ladder over an abyss. ✅ If they climb together, they are stable. ❌ If one tries to climb too far ahead, both fall. The U.S. insistence on hegemony is that destabilizing force. 💥 China’s weapons are financial: it can restrict silver exports or dump U.S. treasuries, causing market havoc. THE AMERICAN PONZI SCHEME ✅ The U.S. economy is built on bubbles: AI speculation, over-leveraged paper silver (300:1), and cryptocurrency. ⚠️ These bubbles are sustained only by oligarchic control and endless money printing. A self-correction could mean collapse—and potential civil war. “The American financial industry is one great Ponzi scheme.” EUROPE: SLEEPWALKING INTO DISASTER ➡️ The Ukraine war is settled in all but name. The front is stabilized. ❌ Yet, Europe’s elite, living in a bubble, will continue a suicidal policy. They cannot admit they were wrong. 🎯 The endgame is Odessa. NATO will commit to defending it, Russia will besiege it, and European conscription will spark internal revolt. “Europe is a lumbering bureaucracy that cannot imagine its own demise.” THE DECLINE OF EMPIRE: MICRO-MILITARISM ✅ The kidnapping of Maduro was a televised spectacle, not strategy. ⚠️ It humiliated a nation and turned the Global South against the U.S. It’s a sign of an empire in decline—sacrificing long-term strategy for short-term optics. “Trump thinks like a mafia boss, not a president. He lives in Trump World, where TV ratings equal victory.” APRIL 2026: THE SHOWDOWN All roads lead to Trump’s visit to China. The goal is to negotiate from a position of strength, controlling the Western Hemisphere to dictate terms. The wildcard is China’s response. Will it cut a deal or choose a different path? The professor’s bet: A grand bargain is reached, but it merely delays the inevitable collapse of the current order. THE BOTTOM LINE The world is being pushed toward conflict by a declining power that confuses television ratings for statecraft, while its rivals hold the financial weapons to ensure mutual destruction. I highly recommend watching the entire interview ! - Glenn Diesen #Geopolitics #2026Predictions #USChina #USDollar #EconomicCollapse #WarInEurope #GlobalRisk #GameTheory
Mark886,320 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад
🚨BREAKING - JUST IN FROM TEHRAN PROF. MARANDI Seyed Mohammad Marandi
Mark674,689 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад