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Andrew Fox

@Mr_Andrew_Fox139,662 subscribers

Former paratrooper 🟥🟩 Global conflicts, strategic and tactical analysis. Co-host of @the_brink_ podcast. I stand with our Jewish communities.

Shorts

Nowak family: don’t use Henry’s death “to create further division, hatred or tension.” Reform:

Nowak family: don’t use Henry’s death “to create further division, hatred or tension.” Reform:

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The situation in northern Israel is getting surprisingly little attention in the West. Here’s some background and an explanation of just how dire it is. World War Three gets closer by the day, and I’m not exaggerating. UNSC resolution 1701 (2006) is that Hezbollah agree to stay north of the river Litani in Lebanon. This puts Israeli settlements out of anti-tank rocket range. However, Hezbollah have broken this and since 7th October have fired thousands of rockets into Israel, displacing some 60,000 Israelis from their homes. To be clear, Hezbollah is a direct Iranian proxy, who live like a virus inside the almost-dead body of the Lebanese state. Their fighters are far superior to Hamas, having gained serious experience in the Syrian civil war. They have no real ground manoeuvre or air power, but their tunnels in the chalk rock of southern Lebanon are better than Hamas’ and they have an estimated 150,000 rockets. There are UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon, but (shockingly for the UN, I know) they’re as much use as a bacon sandwich at a Bar Mitzvah. One very senior Israeli source described them to me as “an umbrella that folds when it rains”. So Israel has a real, very serious problem. They do not have the manpower to assault into Lebanon for any kind of sustained campaign, especially whilst Gaza is ongoing. So, in polite terms, they are kicking the shit out of it from the air (over which they have total superiority) and relying on missile defences. Thousands of targets have been struck in the last 9 months but Hezbollah retain very significant missile capability. This is why Israel are beholden to the USA to offer obscenely generous ceasefire terms to Hamas (that Hamas appear to be declining). They cannot afford to lose American military aid with this threat on their northern border. In the videos below, in the first vid you see the war zone northern Israel has become. The second one is the settlement of Katzrin in the Golan Heights. Surrounded on all sides by fires. In a statement to Qatari-funded Muslim Brotherhood mouthpiece Al Jazeera, yesterday Hezbollah said, “We simultaneously attacked 15 bases in the Golan and the Galilee using 150 rockets and 30 drones. This is the most extensive attack carried out by the organization since October 8, this attack came in response to the assassination in Joya and in order to deter Israel from carrying out further assassinations of this type.” On top of that, Iranian proxies in Iraq took responsibility last night for the joint operation they carried out together with the Houthis (Iranian proxies in Yemen), which launched these ballistic missiles and UAVs towards the Israeli cities of Ashdod and Haifa (third video). Iran is besieging Israel on all sides, and Israel is bending, not breaking. This situation is genuinely dire. It explains why Hamas will not sign a ceasefire deal, and why other non-Iran aligned Gulf states are meeting with IDF commanders. The entire region is teetering on the edge of a much more widespread conflict with Iran, and Israel is taking the brunt of it. If this situation deteriorates, our allies in the Gulf may call for aid. As a second front in the war against the Iran-Russia-China-Qatar axis of malign global actors, this could not be more serious or worrying. And all the while we see subversive Iranian proxy organisations organising protests about Gaza on Western streets. Hopefully the West is not defeated domestically before the war even starts in earnest.

The situation in northern Israel is getting surprisingly little attention in the West. Here’s some background and an explanation of just how dire it is. World War Three gets closer by the day, and I’m not exaggerating. UNSC resolution 1701 (2006) is that Hezbollah agree to stay north of the river Litani in Lebanon. This puts Israeli settlements out of anti-tank rocket range. However, Hezbollah have broken this and since 7th October have fired thousands of rockets into Israel, displacing some 60,000 Israelis from their homes. To be clear, Hezbollah is a direct Iranian proxy, who live like a virus inside the almost-dead body of the Lebanese state. Their fighters are far superior to Hamas, having gained serious experience in the Syrian civil war. They have no real ground manoeuvre or air power, but their tunnels in the chalk rock of southern Lebanon are better than Hamas’ and they have an estimated 150,000 rockets. There are UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon, but (shockingly for the UN, I know) they’re as much use as a bacon sandwich at a Bar Mitzvah. One very senior Israeli source described them to me as “an umbrella that folds when it rains”. So Israel has a real, very serious problem. They do not have the manpower to assault into Lebanon for any kind of sustained campaign, especially whilst Gaza is ongoing. So, in polite terms, they are kicking the shit out of it from the air (over which they have total superiority) and relying on missile defences. Thousands of targets have been struck in the last 9 months but Hezbollah retain very significant missile capability. This is why Israel are beholden to the USA to offer obscenely generous ceasefire terms to Hamas (that Hamas appear to be declining). They cannot afford to lose American military aid with this threat on their northern border. In the videos below, in the first vid you see the war zone northern Israel has become. The second one is the settlement of Katzrin in the Golan Heights. Surrounded on all sides by fires. In a statement to Qatari-funded Muslim Brotherhood mouthpiece Al Jazeera, yesterday Hezbollah said, “We simultaneously attacked 15 bases in the Golan and the Galilee using 150 rockets and 30 drones. This is the most extensive attack carried out by the organization since October 8, this attack came in response to the assassination in Joya and in order to deter Israel from carrying out further assassinations of this type.” On top of that, Iranian proxies in Iraq took responsibility last night for the joint operation they carried out together with the Houthis (Iranian proxies in Yemen), which launched these ballistic missiles and UAVs towards the Israeli cities of Ashdod and Haifa (third video). Iran is besieging Israel on all sides, and Israel is bending, not breaking. This situation is genuinely dire. It explains why Hamas will not sign a ceasefire deal, and why other non-Iran aligned Gulf states are meeting with IDF commanders. The entire region is teetering on the edge of a much more widespread conflict with Iran, and Israel is taking the brunt of it. If this situation deteriorates, our allies in the Gulf may call for aid. As a second front in the war against the Iran-Russia-China-Qatar axis of malign global actors, this could not be more serious or worrying. And all the while we see subversive Iranian proxy organisations organising protests about Gaza on Western streets. Hopefully the West is not defeated domestically before the war even starts in earnest.

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Absolute scenes in downtown Hargeisa today

Absolute scenes in downtown Hargeisa today

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I went to Jerusalem today to get a sense for the atmosphere on the first day of Ramadan. It was distinctly tense. Arrived for Dhuhr at midday, the Muslim crowds were grumpy and pushy. Some passive-aggression as they moved through those narrow streets; the majority were fine, though. Police presence much increased from normal, although they were relaxed. Accidentally ended up in a small group with what seemed to be every senior police officer in Israel, and Ben Gvir, which was quite surreal. Did not request a selfie.

I went to Jerusalem today to get a sense for the atmosphere on the first day of Ramadan. It was distinctly tense. Arrived for Dhuhr at midday, the Muslim crowds were grumpy and pushy. Some passive-aggression as they moved through those narrow streets; the majority were fine, though. Police presence much increased from normal, although they were relaxed. Accidentally ended up in a small group with what seemed to be every senior police officer in Israel, and Ben Gvir, which was quite surreal. Did not request a selfie.

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Air strikes on Iran are cool, but my military aviation highlight of the weekend was watching my 75-year old father actually flying a Spitfire.

Air strikes on Iran are cool, but my military aviation highlight of the weekend was watching my 75-year old father actually flying a Spitfire.

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Waking up to heartbreaking news. We visited this village to deliver aid, two days ago. Last night, a Russian shell hit the village and two of the children we met were killed.

Waking up to heartbreaking news. We visited this village to deliver aid, two days ago. Last night, a Russian shell hit the village and two of the children we met were killed.

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Gazans now leaving with their aid supplies

Gazans now leaving with their aid supplies

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Videos

Another Pallywood classic. Check out the colours on his face/neck. Hamas has played the world for utter fools for two years. What a joke.
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Just woke up to the news that Israel have killed Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, overnight. Hasty hot take: this is a very big deal, and humiliating for Iran that an ally can be taken out on their soil. The last 10 months have been an exercise in Iranian force projection through their proxies and allies, so this will be a huge slap in the face. Their reaction will be an indicator of both capability and intent. Early reports cite “knowledgeable sources in Hamas”, who told Al-Arabi Al-Jadid newspaper: Haniyeh and his delegation of companions were staying in a guest house of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran at the time of the assassination, Islamic Jihad Secretary General Ziad Nachala was also staying at the same time in the same building, on a different floor. Also reported that the missile was fired from outside Iranian borders. Russia, Turkey and Iran are very sad about this - which might give you a further clue as to who is on what side: Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs: We condemn the killing of Hania in Tehran. Once again it becomes clear that the Netanyahu government has no intention of reaching peace. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia: the elimination of Niyya is a political murder that we do not accept. This will have a negative impact on the negotiations regarding Gaza. The National Security Council in Iran: "The elimination of Hania crossed the red lines, Israel will bear a great price." Mahmoud Abbas (Fatah “President of Palestine”) condemns in an official statement: "The elimination of Haniya - a cowardly act and a dangerous development." And the Guardian are having a mad one with a somewhat extreme Overton window for the meaning of the word “moderate”…

Andrew Fox

1,242,921 次观看 • 1 年前

Mr_Andrew_Fox's profile picture

The situation in northern Israel is getting surprisingly little attention in the West. Here’s some background and an explanation of just how dire it is. World War Three gets closer by the day, and I’m not exaggerating. UNSC resolution 1701 (2006) is that Hezbollah agree to stay north of the river Litani in Lebanon. This puts Israeli settlements out of anti-tank rocket range. However, Hezbollah have broken this and since 7th October have fired thousands of rockets into Israel, displacing some 60,000 Israelis from their homes. To be clear, Hezbollah is a direct Iranian proxy, who live like a virus inside the almost-dead body of the Lebanese state. Their fighters are far superior to Hamas, having gained serious experience in the Syrian civil war. They have no real ground manoeuvre or air power, but their tunnels in the chalk rock of southern Lebanon are better than Hamas’ and they have an estimated 150,000 rockets. There are UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon, but (shockingly for the UN, I know) they’re as much use as a bacon sandwich at a Bar Mitzvah. One very senior Israeli source described them to me as “an umbrella that folds when it rains”. So Israel has a real, very serious problem. They do not have the manpower to assault into Lebanon for any kind of sustained campaign, especially whilst Gaza is ongoing. So, in polite terms, they are kicking the shit out of it from the air (over which they have total superiority) and relying on missile defences. Thousands of targets have been struck in the last 9 months but Hezbollah retain very significant missile capability. This is why Israel are beholden to the USA to offer obscenely generous ceasefire terms to Hamas (that Hamas appear to be declining). They cannot afford to lose American military aid with this threat on their northern border. In the videos below, in the first vid you see the war zone northern Israel has become. The second one is the settlement of Katzrin in the Golan Heights. Surrounded on all sides by fires. In a statement to Qatari-funded Muslim Brotherhood mouthpiece Al Jazeera, yesterday Hezbollah said, “We simultaneously attacked 15 bases in the Golan and the Galilee using 150 rockets and 30 drones. This is the most extensive attack carried out by the organization since October 8, this attack came in response to the assassination in Joya and in order to deter Israel from carrying out further assassinations of this type.” On top of that, Iranian proxies in Iraq took responsibility last night for the joint operation they carried out together with the Houthis (Iranian proxies in Yemen), which launched these ballistic missiles and UAVs towards the Israeli cities of Ashdod and Haifa (third video). Iran is besieging Israel on all sides, and Israel is bending, not breaking. This situation is genuinely dire. It explains why Hamas will not sign a ceasefire deal, and why other non-Iran aligned Gulf states are meeting with IDF commanders. The entire region is teetering on the edge of a much more widespread conflict with Iran, and Israel is taking the brunt of it. If this situation deteriorates, our allies in the Gulf may call for aid. As a second front in the war against the Iran-Russia-China-Qatar axis of malign global actors, this could not be more serious or worrying. And all the while we see subversive Iranian proxy organisations organising protests about Gaza on Western streets. Hopefully the West is not defeated domestically before the war even starts in earnest.

Andrew Fox

1,310,115 次观看 • 2 年前

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Just made this point to Admiral Hagari in IDF HQ and I think it’s a good one so I’ll share it. Even though I have combat experience myself, have degrees in Law, War Studies and Psychology, on first seeing the destruction in Rafah my nanosecond first reaction was: “Fucking hell.” I *know* why the damage occurred. If you’re destroying Hamas’ capability and infrastructure root and branch, the fact that their infrastructure is in every school, hospital, mosque and house means that those things are all going to be damaged. If every home contains a booby trap, every home is going to be explosively damaged. No army in the world has sufficient engineers to diffuse every bomb like that in a kinetic clearance operation. The IDF don’t want to damage people’s homes, but they’re taking the only tactical option they have to achieve operational goals. This does mean two things, though. If I, with my experience and knowledge, am having that reaction, so will the world when they see it. And for the wider world, without the knowledge to rationalise and understand what they’re seeing, that reaction will be enduring. So the first requirement is for the IDF to explain to world leaders and opinion leaders, simply, what has happened and why. The second thing is the priority that must be given to reconstruction. Palestinian Arabs cannot stay in tents indefinitely. The wider world needs to step up as they did in Germany in 1945 to create a society that is enduring and can live at peace alongside Israel. It’s going to require billions of currency and huge efforts. Get this right, and Gaza could be a Mediterranean paradise.

Andrew Fox

484,016 次观看 • 1 年前