
Andrew Fox
@Mr_Andrew_Fox • 139,662 subscribers
Former paratrooper 🟥🟩 Global conflicts, strategic and tactical analysis. Co-host of @the_brink_ podcast. I stand with our Jewish communities.
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Shocking scenes in Lebanon as the IDF bombs the house of a local fireworks enthusiast. Just look at his collection of Catherine wheels, Roman candles and bottle rockets going off. Well, either that or Hezbollah are hiding arms caches in civilian houses. Hard to say.
Andrew Fox1,731,834 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Finally. We can put this “the ICJ ruled plausible genocide” bullshit to bed. I’ve been arguing this for months, but in case you don’t believe me, here’s the actual President of the ICJ who delivered the ruling: “It didn’t decide that the claim of genocide was plausible”.
Andrew Fox1,705,391 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

My experience with Gaza Humanitarian Foundation in Rafah. A little thread.
Andrew Fox688,996 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Just woke up to the news that Israel have killed Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, overnight. Hasty hot take: this is a very big deal, and humiliating for Iran that an ally can be taken out on their soil. The last 10 months have been an exercise in Iranian force projection through their proxies and allies, so this will be a huge slap in the face. Their reaction will be an indicator of both capability and intent. Early reports cite “knowledgeable sources in Hamas”, who told Al-Arabi Al-Jadid newspaper: Haniyeh and his delegation of companions were staying in a guest house of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran at the time of the assassination, Islamic Jihad Secretary General Ziad Nachala was also staying at the same time in the same building, on a different floor. Also reported that the missile was fired from outside Iranian borders. Russia, Turkey and Iran are very sad about this - which might give you a further clue as to who is on what side: Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs: We condemn the killing of Hania in Tehran. Once again it becomes clear that the Netanyahu government has no intention of reaching peace. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia: the elimination of Niyya is a political murder that we do not accept. This will have a negative impact on the negotiations regarding Gaza. The National Security Council in Iran: "The elimination of Hania crossed the red lines, Israel will bear a great price." Mahmoud Abbas (Fatah “President of Palestine”) condemns in an official statement: "The elimination of Haniya - a cowardly act and a dangerous development." And the Guardian are having a mad one with a somewhat extreme Overton window for the meaning of the word “moderate”…
Andrew Fox1,242,921 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The situation in northern Israel is getting surprisingly little attention in the West. Here’s some background and an explanation of just how dire it is. World War Three gets closer by the day, and I’m not exaggerating. UNSC resolution 1701 (2006) is that Hezbollah agree to stay north of the river Litani in Lebanon. This puts Israeli settlements out of anti-tank rocket range. However, Hezbollah have broken this and since 7th October have fired thousands of rockets into Israel, displacing some 60,000 Israelis from their homes. To be clear, Hezbollah is a direct Iranian proxy, who live like a virus inside the almost-dead body of the Lebanese state. Their fighters are far superior to Hamas, having gained serious experience in the Syrian civil war. They have no real ground manoeuvre or air power, but their tunnels in the chalk rock of southern Lebanon are better than Hamas’ and they have an estimated 150,000 rockets. There are UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon, but (shockingly for the UN, I know) they’re as much use as a bacon sandwich at a Bar Mitzvah. One very senior Israeli source described them to me as “an umbrella that folds when it rains”. So Israel has a real, very serious problem. They do not have the manpower to assault into Lebanon for any kind of sustained campaign, especially whilst Gaza is ongoing. So, in polite terms, they are kicking the shit out of it from the air (over which they have total superiority) and relying on missile defences. Thousands of targets have been struck in the last 9 months but Hezbollah retain very significant missile capability. This is why Israel are beholden to the USA to offer obscenely generous ceasefire terms to Hamas (that Hamas appear to be declining). They cannot afford to lose American military aid with this threat on their northern border. In the videos below, in the first vid you see the war zone northern Israel has become. The second one is the settlement of Katzrin in the Golan Heights. Surrounded on all sides by fires. In a statement to Qatari-funded Muslim Brotherhood mouthpiece Al Jazeera, yesterday Hezbollah said, “We simultaneously attacked 15 bases in the Golan and the Galilee using 150 rockets and 30 drones. This is the most extensive attack carried out by the organization since October 8, this attack came in response to the assassination in Joya and in order to deter Israel from carrying out further assassinations of this type.” On top of that, Iranian proxies in Iraq took responsibility last night for the joint operation they carried out together with the Houthis (Iranian proxies in Yemen), which launched these ballistic missiles and UAVs towards the Israeli cities of Ashdod and Haifa (third video). Iran is besieging Israel on all sides, and Israel is bending, not breaking. This situation is genuinely dire. It explains why Hamas will not sign a ceasefire deal, and why other non-Iran aligned Gulf states are meeting with IDF commanders. The entire region is teetering on the edge of a much more widespread conflict with Iran, and Israel is taking the brunt of it. If this situation deteriorates, our allies in the Gulf may call for aid. As a second front in the war against the Iran-Russia-China-Qatar axis of malign global actors, this could not be more serious or worrying. And all the while we see subversive Iranian proxy organisations organising protests about Gaza on Western streets. Hopefully the West is not defeated domestically before the war even starts in earnest.
Andrew Fox1,310,115 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

The first video is footage from Hezbollah’s media team. They’re talking to Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon. You can see the quality of their tunnels and how well appointed they are. Note the Hezbollah troops properly uniformed - they are a very different proposition to Hamas. Also note the terrain of Southern Lebanon - exceptionally hard to fight in, exceptionally hard to locate the enemy. This will be no easy battle. The second two videos are also Hezbollah media releases, showing them firing anti-tank missiles straight into Israeli houses. Note the international outrage when the IDF strike Hamas targets embedded within the civilian infrastructure. There are no IDF tunnels in northern Israel. The IDF do not wilfully sacrifice Israeli citizens by forcing them into harm’s way or using them as human shields. Hezbollah are just openly attacking civilians. And yet, on the international stage… nothing. No protests, no UN Special Rapporteurs mouthing off daily, no hysterical narrative. Not that I want any of these these things, but the double standards are telling. In fact, the ghouls will cheer this on. It’s not that they care so much about innocent lives; they just hate Israel. Just more confirmation of what the world’s only Jewish state and the Middle East’s only democracy is facing internationally. UN forces are actually deployed in Lebanon as “peacekeepers”. More confirmation of the uselessness of the UN.
Andrew Fox1,085,015 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Somaliland’s Rapid Reaction Unit on parade this morning at the Liberation Day parade.
Andrew Fox27,028 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce

Just made this point to Admiral Hagari in IDF HQ and I think it’s a good one so I’ll share it. Even though I have combat experience myself, have degrees in Law, War Studies and Psychology, on first seeing the destruction in Rafah my nanosecond first reaction was: “Fucking hell.” I *know* why the damage occurred. If you’re destroying Hamas’ capability and infrastructure root and branch, the fact that their infrastructure is in every school, hospital, mosque and house means that those things are all going to be damaged. If every home contains a booby trap, every home is going to be explosively damaged. No army in the world has sufficient engineers to diffuse every bomb like that in a kinetic clearance operation. The IDF don’t want to damage people’s homes, but they’re taking the only tactical option they have to achieve operational goals. This does mean two things, though. If I, with my experience and knowledge, am having that reaction, so will the world when they see it. And for the wider world, without the knowledge to rationalise and understand what they’re seeing, that reaction will be enduring. So the first requirement is for the IDF to explain to world leaders and opinion leaders, simply, what has happened and why. The second thing is the priority that must be given to reconstruction. Palestinian Arabs cannot stay in tents indefinitely. The wider world needs to step up as they did in Germany in 1945 to create a society that is enduring and can live at peace alongside Israel. It’s going to require billions of currency and huge efforts. Get this right, and Gaza could be a Mediterranean paradise.
Andrew Fox484,016 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
