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Patarames

@Pataramesh • 73,889 subscribers

Open source (-only) military technology analyst. Iran, Middle East, Russia, China, North Korea, Israel Want to support my work? https://t.co/zD72v8d00T

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The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

251,536 Aufrufe

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

139,487 Aufrufe

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

318,959 Aufrufe

Simulated effects of a salvo of 2⃣0⃣ Khorramshahr-4 missiles equipped with 20 heavy 100kg Submunitions (on a key 🇮🇱 facility) Details: - 300m CEP for a tri-conic-RV, heavy-Submunition released outside the atmosphere - 100kg Submunition assumed have heavy destructive effect out to 40m. Mach 5-6 impact energy (see supposed impact video) - 4 salvo/aimpoints of 5 Khorramshahr = 20, each equipped with 20 heavy-type Submunitions (400 total) The facility in the simulation is not of soft type, since it has berms to protect against nearby hits and contain the effects of an accidental explosion The salvo-size of 20 missiles is not outlandish for such a high-priority target. CEP is neither for a relative high ballistic-coefficient tri-conic re-entry vehicle PLUS early-release dispersion effect (to defeat endo-atmospheric missile defenses) ➡️ I did this to illustrate the power of heavy throwers like the Khorramshahr even without precision enhancers like GPS or MaRV. A relative low-cost weapon that can defeat every defense, except for the upper-tier SM-3 and to a lower extend THAAD & Arrow-3 PS: It also serves as an eye-opener on the fact that Iran didn't opt to use such destructive weapons against civilian targets like downtown Tel Aviv

Simulated effects of a salvo of 2⃣0⃣ Khorramshahr-4 missiles equipped with 20 heavy 100kg Submunitions (on a key 🇮🇱 facility) Details: - 300m CEP for a tri-conic-RV, heavy-Submunition released outside the atmosphere - 100kg Submunition assumed have heavy destructive effect out to 40m. Mach 5-6 impact energy (see supposed impact video) - 4 salvo/aimpoints of 5 Khorramshahr = 20, each equipped with 20 heavy-type Submunitions (400 total) The facility in the simulation is not of soft type, since it has berms to protect against nearby hits and contain the effects of an accidental explosion The salvo-size of 20 missiles is not outlandish for such a high-priority target. CEP is neither for a relative high ballistic-coefficient tri-conic re-entry vehicle PLUS early-release dispersion effect (to defeat endo-atmospheric missile defenses) ➡️ I did this to illustrate the power of heavy throwers like the Khorramshahr even without precision enhancers like GPS or MaRV. A relative low-cost weapon that can defeat every defense, except for the upper-tier SM-3 and to a lower extend THAAD & Arrow-3 PS: It also serves as an eye-opener on the fact that Iran didn't opt to use such destructive weapons against civilian targets like downtown Tel Aviv

62,419 Aufrufe

🇮🇷-🇺🇸 escalation cycle would not go far: - 11 missile did what you see below video - 200 missiles were launched in a single salvo against 🇮🇱 - 🇺🇸 Gulf Arab allies have all their infrastructure lying 300km from Iran ➡️ Go figure

🇮🇷-🇺🇸 escalation cycle would not go far: - 11 missile did what you see below video - 200 missiles were launched in a single salvo against 🇮🇱 - 🇺🇸 Gulf Arab allies have all their infrastructure lying 300km from Iran ➡️ Go figure

286,263 Aufrufe

A SINGLE 🇮🇷 missile vs. 14 🇮🇱 missile interceptors ➡️ Who wins? Yes its a single missile, the slower object behind it, is its its 1st stage booster burning up Candidates for the missile used? ➡️ Fattah-1 ➡️ Kheybar-Shekan-2

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A SINGLE 🇮🇷 missile vs. 14 🇮🇱 missile interceptors ➡️ Who wins? Yes its a single missile, the slower object behind it, is its its 1st stage booster burning up Candidates for the missile used? ➡️ Fattah-1 ➡️ Kheybar-Shekan-2

186,392 Aufrufe

🔴 Just wow 🇺🇸 RQ-180 or 🇮🇱 RA-01 Off the coast of Lebanon

🔴 Just wow 🇺🇸 RQ-180 or 🇮🇱 RA-01 Off the coast of Lebanon

195,298 Aufrufe

2017 to 2020, Trump was unaware of Iran's military power ➡️ The Ain-Al-Assad strike changed it But not to a sufficiently high level To avoid 🇮🇷 oil exports being targeted: ➡️ Iran must demonstrate to 🇺🇸 that it has near-nuclear destructive power ➡️ By a massive strike on 🇮🇱

2017 to 2020, Trump was unaware of Iran's military power ➡️ The Ain-Al-Assad strike changed it But not to a sufficiently high level To avoid 🇮🇷 oil exports being targeted: ➡️ Iran must demonstrate to 🇺🇸 that it has near-nuclear destructive power ➡️ By a massive strike on 🇮🇱

134,873 Aufrufe

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Time to explain some realities: - Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time - Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted 1/4

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Time to explain some realities: - Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time - Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted 1/4

15,501,741 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Remarkable how Iran's IRGC-SSJ had to re-invent solid-propellant ballistic missiles on its own ➡️ No Chinese DF-11 or Iskander to jump start the development In the first clear photo of the Fath-ol-Mobin missile (mid 2000s), both stages had to use steering fins ➡️ A failed solution that was discontinued later on This is basic R&D work, trail & error without help Now imagine doing all that and having to tolerate western reports that all is purchased from China, Russia or North Korea...

Remarkable how Iran's IRGC-SSJ had to re-invent solid-propellant ballistic missiles on its own ➡️ No Chinese DF-11 or Iskander to jump start the development In the first clear photo of the Fath-ol-Mobin missile (mid 2000s), both stages had to use steering fins ➡️ A failed solution that was discontinued later on This is basic R&D work, trail & error without help Now imagine doing all that and having to tolerate western reports that all is purchased from China, Russia or North Korea...

91,764 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

190,602 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

139,487 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is... (especially when timed on purpose at dawn)

Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is... (especially when timed on purpose at dawn)

119,383 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2

Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2

173,277 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...

It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...

543,043 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

No, there are no 🇮🇱 F-35 hunting down 🇮🇷 missile launchers No, 🇮🇷 missile strikes won't get less intensive No, 🇮🇱 missile defenses won't remain active like this for much longer ➡️ That is where the psychological effects on Israel will kick in dramatically (Bookmark this tweet)

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No, there are no 🇮🇱 F-35 hunting down 🇮🇷 missile launchers No, 🇮🇷 missile strikes won't get less intensive No, 🇮🇱 missile defenses won't remain active like this for much longer ➡️ That is where the psychological effects on Israel will kick in dramatically (Bookmark this tweet)

1,001,879 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Safest launch conditions by Iranian mobile ballistic-missile launchers: - Nightime - Shortly exiting the tunnel, launching in front of the entrance & retreating back - Random appearance at ONE of the 100+ tunnels - Inside a deep valley ➡️ Wartime launch video below, shows launch of Emad missiles: - In a flat open area - No mountain ridges blocking view of stand-off ISR - Far from safe tunnels - Cluster of 10 launches close to each other - Early morning daylight ➡️ You have to be confident that the air-threat situation is pretty much under control to perform such relaxed launch operations

Safest launch conditions by Iranian mobile ballistic-missile launchers: - Nightime - Shortly exiting the tunnel, launching in front of the entrance & retreating back - Random appearance at ONE of the 100+ tunnels - Inside a deep valley ➡️ Wartime launch video below, shows launch of Emad missiles: - In a flat open area - No mountain ridges blocking view of stand-off ISR - Far from safe tunnels - Cluster of 10 launches close to each other - Early morning daylight ➡️ You have to be confident that the air-threat situation is pretty much under control to perform such relaxed launch operations

135,637 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Missile-358 (Shahed-358) kill against another 🇮🇱 Hermes-450 It's a mystery to me why Hezbollah does not use the 🇮🇷 Missile-358 more frequently against such easy yet reactively high-value targets

Missile-358 (Shahed-358) kill against another 🇮🇱 Hermes-450 It's a mystery to me why Hezbollah does not use the 🇮🇷 Missile-358 more frequently against such easy yet reactively high-value targets

112,924 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Wonder how the FIRST known use of the Arman/Ababil missile by Hezbollah performed against 🇮🇱 Iron Dome missile defenses ➡️ Is Hezbollah using more advanced, made-in-Iran gear because they anticipate the conflict to wind down soon?

Wonder how the FIRST known use of the Arman/Ababil missile by Hezbollah performed against 🇮🇱 Iron Dome missile defenses ➡️ Is Hezbollah using more advanced, made-in-Iran gear because they anticipate the conflict to wind down soon?

31,583 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Air-Defenses gone, Navy gone, Air-force gone But Assad left something for Syria which 🇮🇱 can't destroy 🚀

Air-Defenses gone, Navy gone, Air-force gone But Assad left something for Syria which 🇮🇱 can't destroy 🚀

755,062 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Hezbollah's R-17 Scud-B with its 1000kg warhead being launched against Israel Quite amazing that they are so confident to use such a visible system ➡️ Given the small 🇱🇧 area Israel has to surveil in order to target such missile operations... Brave

Hezbollah's R-17 Scud-B with its 1000kg warhead being launched against Israel Quite amazing that they are so confident to use such a visible system ➡️ Given the small 🇱🇧 area Israel has to surveil in order to target such missile operations... Brave

130,447 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🟡 Eyeopener: The general media-narrative of the 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 conflict is heavily biased ➡️ In my newest video, I paint a different picture of the situation ➡️ Clearing up Myths Make sure to watch it on YT to get a realistic picture of the current situation ⬇️

🟡 Eyeopener: The general media-narrative of the 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 conflict is heavily biased ➡️ In my newest video, I paint a different picture of the situation ➡️ Clearing up Myths Make sure to watch it on YT to get a realistic picture of the current situation ⬇️

396,177 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Now, with the 🇮🇱 captives released... It basically just comes down to Iran's missile firepower to deter Israel & Trump from breaking their word By Iran directly or via Yemen

Now, with the 🇮🇱 captives released... It basically just comes down to Iran's missile firepower to deter Israel & Trump from breaking their word By Iran directly or via Yemen

210,581 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

No friends, this was not a kind gesture by Trump to lift sanctions on Iran's oil exports to China ➡️ It is ONE of the concessions Iran demanded for a 🇮🇱-saving casefire More will come soon and some people will wonder why...

No friends, this was not a kind gesture by Trump to lift sanctions on Iran's oil exports to China ➡️ It is ONE of the concessions Iran demanded for a 🇮🇱-saving casefire More will come soon and some people will wonder why...

252,697 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

That time when Tom Cruise wanted to impersonate the prototype of a powerful ✡️ Hollywood producer ... But who he got closest to was 🇮🇷 M.B. Ghalibaf...

That time when Tom Cruise wanted to impersonate the prototype of a powerful ✡️ Hollywood producer ... But who he got closest to was 🇮🇷 M.B. Ghalibaf...

57,545 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Iran has started to use the Sejil-2 special purpose ballistic missile ➡️ Why it's special? Watch my video in the second tweet below about it

Iran has started to use the Sejil-2 special purpose ballistic missile ➡️ Why it's special? Watch my video in the second tweet below about it

75,342 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

A war take by a key representative of the 🇺🇸 Gen-Z Heavier than 99% of the takes you get on your X feed... Nicholas J. Fuentes remains the geo-strategics GOAT of his generation

A war take by a key representative of the 🇺🇸 Gen-Z Heavier than 99% of the takes you get on your X feed... Nicholas J. Fuentes remains the geo-strategics GOAT of his generation

68,705 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Trump just said: Iran is developing missiles that could reach 🇺🇸 ➡️ I would rather say Iran HAS developED missiles that can reach 🇺🇸 Watch my video on the Qaem SLV (ICBM) ⬇️

Trump just said: Iran is developing missiles that could reach 🇺🇸 ➡️ I would rather say Iran HAS developED missiles that can reach 🇺🇸 Watch my video on the Qaem SLV (ICBM) ⬇️

80,270 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten