Patarames's banner

Patarames

@Pataramesh • 103,722 subscribers

Open source (-only) military technology analyst Iran/Russia/China/DPRK/Israel https://t.co/Q44fKzbdgm Support: Via YouTube-Channel membership

Shorts

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

128,464 次观看

The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

251,983 次观看

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

318,989 次观看

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

140,007 次观看

Videos

Anya Rossi

sweetdream.ai

SweetDream.ai•Sponsored•Livecam

Watch Anya Live

Anya is streaming live right now! Join her private show and enjoy exclusive content.

Exclusive private shows

1.2k viewers online

Private Show

Join now for exclusive access

Free preview available • Premium content

Interesting claim by the IRGC: ➡️ During the last days of the 40-Day War the U.S. started to fly raids towards the Isfahan region as it deemed air defenses there sufficiently degraded Those raids would include F-15E without X-band stealth. If successful, it could preserve precious stand-off munitions, as well as weapons with higher penetration performance, e.g. GBU-72 But the air defenses came out of their ambush posture and hunted one of the raiding F-15E. Resulting in a very costly CSAR operation to rescue the pilots. ➡️ Making it very clear that this approach was infeasible and unsustainable Then during the last day, rare Tomahawk cruise missiles were used to perform deep strikes and end the operation. Would the raids have been successful, Iran's weapon-grade enriched Uranium stockpile in Isfahan could have been within reach

Interesting claim by the IRGC: ➡️ During the last days of the 40-Day War the U.S. started to fly raids towards the Isfahan region as it deemed air defenses there sufficiently degraded Those raids would include F-15E without X-band stealth. If successful, it could preserve precious stand-off munitions, as well as weapons with higher penetration performance, e.g. GBU-72 But the air defenses came out of their ambush posture and hunted one of the raiding F-15E. Resulting in a very costly CSAR operation to rescue the pilots. ➡️ Making it very clear that this approach was infeasible and unsustainable Then during the last day, rare Tomahawk cruise missiles were used to perform deep strikes and end the operation. Would the raids have been successful, Iran's weapon-grade enriched Uranium stockpile in Isfahan could have been within reach

75,460 次观看 • 22 小时前

Last night at a U.S. Airbase in Jordan: 4 Iranian missiles at 1000km+ range ($ 400k-600k) vs. 8 or more U.S. Patriot PAC-3 ($ 32 million) Result ➡️ 4 impacts (flawless victory?)

Last night at a U.S. Airbase in Jordan: 4 Iranian missiles at 1000km+ range ($ 400k-600k) vs. 8 or more U.S. Patriot PAC-3 ($ 32 million) Result ➡️ 4 impacts (flawless victory?)

462,442 次观看 • 1 个月前

Let's say it directly... Trump wants his clean, luxury War against Iran, where: - 2 to 4 interceptors are launched against each 🇮🇷 ballistic missile - Missile defenses protect forces & allied infrastructure - 🇺🇸 Aircraft launch cruise-missiles safely 100km from Iran's borders But Iran effectively depleted stockpiles of such luxury weapons and the resulting new reality is that another high-intensity campaign would become very costly ➡️ Everyone is now used to such luxury wars, going dirty could destroy Trump's legacy It seems clear that he is unwilling to risk his 'legacy'

Let's say it directly... Trump wants his clean, luxury War against Iran, where: - 2 to 4 interceptors are launched against each 🇮🇷 ballistic missile - Missile defenses protect forces & allied infrastructure - 🇺🇸 Aircraft launch cruise-missiles safely 100km from Iran's borders But Iran effectively depleted stockpiles of such luxury weapons and the resulting new reality is that another high-intensity campaign would become very costly ➡️ Everyone is now used to such luxury wars, going dirty could destroy Trump's legacy It seems clear that he is unwilling to risk his 'legacy'

103,032 次观看 • 14 天前

🟡 Unusual: Last night Iran launched a Sejil-2 ballistic-missile ➡️ a 2000-2500km+ range special asset of the IRGC Aerospace Force What was the target? Was it distant, short notice or what was the reason to use the Sejil-2?

🟡 Unusual: Last night Iran launched a Sejil-2 ballistic-missile ➡️ a 2000-2500km+ range special asset of the IRGC Aerospace Force What was the target? Was it distant, short notice or what was the reason to use the Sejil-2?

155,110 次观看 • 1 个月前

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

Is the absence of AN/TPY-2 upper-echelon high-res sensors a reason for systematic failure of 🇺🇸 Patriot missile defense? Are the one(s) left in the region not emitting to avoid their detection & targeting? ➡️ Its certainly possible Iran's hunt for them may have enabled all this

128,464 次观看 • 28 天前

Trump now want's to respond hard to Iran's missile attack last night? Hope he is aware that Iran was kind and just used the Jahad missile (wrongly declared as Emad) - Jahad: Mach 9 max. speed, Mach <5 impact (interceptable by PAC-3) - Emad: Mach 11,5 max. speed, Mach ~6 impact

Trump now want's to respond hard to Iran's missile attack last night? Hope he is aware that Iran was kind and just used the Jahad missile (wrongly declared as Emad) - Jahad: Mach 9 max. speed, Mach <5 impact (interceptable by PAC-3) - Emad: Mach 11,5 max. speed, Mach ~6 impact

68,180 次观看 • 18 天前

No, you don't surprise attack the U.S. with a tiny 5-6 missile salvo What this rather looks like; attempting to bring the U.S. back into a low-intensity tit-for-tat condition like the previous weeks 1 (?) serious missile ➡️ Kheybar-Shekan 5 low-cost PAC-3 baits ➡️ Qiam-2/Rezvan

No, you don't surprise attack the U.S. with a tiny 5-6 missile salvo What this rather looks like; attempting to bring the U.S. back into a low-intensity tit-for-tat condition like the previous weeks 1 (?) serious missile ➡️ Kheybar-Shekan 5 low-cost PAC-3 baits ➡️ Qiam-2/Rezvan

61,545 次观看 • 19 天前

It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...

It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...

543,043 次观看 • 5 个月前

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

191,299 次观看 • 2 个月前

➡️ Iran projects accurate penetrative firepower out to 1000km+ in a target-rich environment ➡️ The U.S. projects limited-range firepower towards Iran's costal regions with a highly depleted target bank, often hitting objects without military value One side is paying the price

➡️ Iran projects accurate penetrative firepower out to 1000km+ in a target-rich environment ➡️ The U.S. projects limited-range firepower towards Iran's costal regions with a highly depleted target bank, often hitting objects without military value One side is paying the price

102,016 次观看 • 1 个月前

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

140,007 次观看 • 2 个月前

Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2

Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2

173,277 次观看 • 2 个月前

Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is... (especially when timed on purpose at dawn)

Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is... (especially when timed on purpose at dawn)

119,586 次观看 • 2 个月前

Remarkable how Iran's IRGC-SSJ had to re-invent solid-propellant ballistic missiles on its own ➡️ No Chinese DF-11 or Iskander to jump start the development In the first clear photo of the Fath-ol-Mobin missile (mid 2000s), both stages had to use steering fins ➡️ A failed solution that was discontinued later on This is basic R&D work, trail & error without help Now imagine doing all that and having to tolerate western reports that all is purchased from China, Russia or North Korea...

Remarkable how Iran's IRGC-SSJ had to re-invent solid-propellant ballistic missiles on its own ➡️ No Chinese DF-11 or Iskander to jump start the development In the first clear photo of the Fath-ol-Mobin missile (mid 2000s), both stages had to use steering fins ➡️ A failed solution that was discontinued later on This is basic R&D work, trail & error without help Now imagine doing all that and having to tolerate western reports that all is purchased from China, Russia or North Korea...

96,723 次观看 • 1 个月前

Safest launch conditions by Iranian mobile ballistic-missile launchers: - Nightime - Shortly exiting the tunnel, launching in front of the entrance & retreating back - Random appearance at ONE of the 100+ tunnels - Inside a deep valley ➡️ Wartime launch video below, shows launch of Emad missiles: - In a flat open area - No mountain ridges blocking view of stand-off ISR - Far from safe tunnels - Cluster of 10 launches close to each other - Early morning daylight ➡️ You have to be confident that the air-threat situation is pretty much under control to perform such relaxed launch operations

Safest launch conditions by Iranian mobile ballistic-missile launchers: - Nightime - Shortly exiting the tunnel, launching in front of the entrance & retreating back - Random appearance at ONE of the 100+ tunnels - Inside a deep valley ➡️ Wartime launch video below, shows launch of Emad missiles: - In a flat open area - No mountain ridges blocking view of stand-off ISR - Far from safe tunnels - Cluster of 10 launches close to each other - Early morning daylight ➡️ You have to be confident that the air-threat situation is pretty much under control to perform such relaxed launch operations

135,637 次观看 • 3 个月前

Missile-358 (Shahed-358) kill against another 🇮🇱 Hermes-450 It's a mystery to me why Hezbollah does not use the 🇮🇷 Missile-358 more frequently against such easy yet reactively high-value targets

Missile-358 (Shahed-358) kill against another 🇮🇱 Hermes-450 It's a mystery to me why Hezbollah does not use the 🇮🇷 Missile-358 more frequently against such easy yet reactively high-value targets

112,924 次观看 • 3 个月前