Ryan Paganetti
@RyanPaganetti • 102,520 subscribers
Super Bowl-winning NFL Coach + Director of Analytics | Former @Eagles @Jaguars @Raiders | Follow for football research and plays that will get banned by the NFL
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Inside the disaster sequence by the Jets at the end of regulation: Jets could have and should have called timeout at 1:01 left and the Packers facing 4th and 5 at the +45. By doing so, the Jets force the Packers to make a decision with 1:01 left, which almost certainly would have been to punt. The average starting field position after a punt from that field position is roughly the 12 yard line. A touchback occurs ~16% of the time which would put you at the 20. For simplicity, assume the Jets have the ball from their own 12 with 51 seconds left and a timeout. One key point here is the Packers only had 2 timeouts remaining, which makes a big difference. The Jets could have run the ball on 1st down and seen what they got. If it went nowhere, they would have the ability to take the clock to 0:00 if needed because the Packers could only stop the clock twice. By not calling timeout, the Jets allowed the Packers to run the clock all the way down to 21 seconds before a delay of game. The clock decay helps one team or the other here, and in this case it clearly helps the Packers. Now comes the next clear mistake by the Jets. Once the delay of game occurred, the Jets could have and should have stopped the clock. By not electing to do so, Green Bay was able to run the clock down to 2 seconds to get a free chance at a Hail Mary. The Jets needed to stop the clock at 21 seconds to force the punt and then take it to overtime. Green Bay would not have been able to run that Hail Mary with 21 seconds. The situation was so chaotic I actually think the Packers missed an opportunity here too. Packers could have called timeout with ~8-9 seconds, tried to get the first down on 4th and 10, and if so called timeout and attempted a game winning field goal. The Packers have had a great long yardage pass offense with Love. If they failed, the Packers would have to defend one play from the ~50. Another Packers option is Trey Smack attempting a ~68 yard field goal with 2 seconds left. For some teams that would have clearly been the best option. Ultimately, this game management by the Jets was objectively incorrect in both of these instances, and the fact it sounds like they did not even talk about it on the headset is beyond alarming.
Ryan Paganetti485,962 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen
Cam Little’s 68 yard official NFL record field goal is in serious jeopardy today from… Cam Little. Last year in Denver, with the altitude, he easily made a 73 yard field goal in warmups. I’ve heard he’s made from 76 before. Watch for the Jaguars getting stopped between their own 45 and 49 yard line for a potential record breaking attempt. Scott Hanson
Ryan Paganetti314,034 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen
Did this obvious Patriots passing tendency help Seattle wreck their offense in the Super Bowl? In 2025, when New England used 11 personnel WITHOUT Mack Hollins on the field, in games he played, they passed on 54 of 56 snaps in normal early down situations. 96.4% Pass. One missing receiver practically told you what was coming. That situation came up six times in the Super Bowl. The first four results: 1st and 10: Sack. 2nd and 13: Quick pressure, dumped into the flat for a loss of two. 2nd and 7: Sack. 1st and 10: Sack. All four possessions ended in punts. None produced another first down after those plays. Watch the clips. Despite these being early downs, Seattle showed virtually no respect for the run. They attacked with aggressive rushes and pressures. I can’t prove Seattle identified this specific tell. But this is exactly the kind of edge Mike Macdonald hunts. I will place the odds he knew at 99%. Multiple people have told me about what he calls the “KGB,” an operation for searching for opponent tendencies and checking his own team for tells. I think Macdonald is a generational defensive play caller. And this operation contributes to that. I’ve run my own “KGB” operation for teams I’ve worked for. We were not a remotely good football team with the Raiders last year, but we used several incredibly strong Josh McDaniels and Patriots tendencies to help beat them in Foxborough in Week 1. Looking back at how the season unfolded, that might have been the biggest upset of the year. Beyond this personnel tell, McDaniels has a number of extremely heavy passing tendencies from shotgun that we were able to take advantage of. There are other glaring tells that I may share at a later date. These details matter. One WR's absence. A 96.4% passing tendency. Three sacks and another loss on six snaps on football’s biggest stage.
Ryan Paganetti907,919 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen
If Georgia Tech used the entire play clock correctly down the stretch vs Colorado, they would have won the game. On their drive leading by 3 starting with 7:35 left in the game, they snapped the ball far too early on offense several times. In the video below, I compiled all examples from the drive. They could have burned an additional 83 seconds of game clock by doing this correctly. When Colorado took over down 6 with no timeouts, they had 1:40 to work with. If Georgia Tech had been using the whole play clock, they would have left Colorado with 17 seconds needing 75 yards, a nearly impossible task.
Ryan Paganetti714,540 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen
This 4th and inches field goal decision was an incredibly large mistake by the Texans (Over 4% win probability). There is no data justification for this whatsoever, and it was almost karma that the field goal was missed anyways. I have large concerns with the quality of the information being fed to the Texans head coach, as these 4th down issues have been going on for a number of years and can be the difference between winning and losing big games.
Ryan Paganetti92,207 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
If I was trying to lose, I would line up in shotgun with about 2 inches to go on a 3rd down. The fumbled snap off the motion is just a cherry on top. 2 inches. 2 downs to get it. Maybe folding the Chargers franchise like the 1926 Racine Tornadoes is not the worst idea.
Ryan Paganetti74,587 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen
NIL could have a new meaning in the NFL: National Insert League. I manually charted every snap of the entire 2025 Rams offense, the highest scoring team in the NFL. Insert action was everywhere: motions, alignments, blocks and play action, with both wide receivers and tight ends. Including the playoffs, roughly one third of their under center first and second down plays featured some kind of insert component. Duo accounted for nearly 40% of their run offense, the highest rate in the NFL according to Fantasy Points Data. Many of those runs featured insert blocks. On under center early downs, their runs with insert action produced 5.05 yards per play, a 53.5% success rate and +0.07 EPA per play. But their duo identity created an incredible dilemma for defenses: commit inside to stop it, and risk getting outflanked outside to that same side. Running outside zone toward the three player side of 3x1 formations, the Rams produced 565 yards on 81 carries: 7.0 yards per carry, a 61.7% success rate and +0.23 EPA per play. Watching those runs, what stood out was how often they got the edge of the defense for big gains. The frequency was staggering. Looking through at least a decade of data, I couldn’t find another team remotely close to that effectiveness on those runs. They could do it from 11 or 13 personnel, running both duo and outside zone and presenting the same problem with different personnel on the field. Widen to protect the edge, and they could come right back to duo. React aggressively to the insert action, and they could throw behind you. The insert wasn’t just a wrinkle. It helped tie the interior run, perimeter run and play action game together. My top offensive trend prediction for the 2026 season: more teams building around insert action, pairing duo inside with outside zone to the same side, and tying it together with play action. Examples below:
Ryan Paganetti299,291 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
De’Zhaun Stribling’s preseason start is truly unbelievable. He’s the first player in at least 20 years to total 11 catches within the first 20 minutes of two consecutive preseason games. The next closest: • Dez Bryant, 2013 Cowboys: 10 • Demaryius Thomas, 2014 Broncos: 10 • Jeremy Maclin, 2015 Chiefs: 10 Stribling nearly added a 33-yard touchdown, too. He got open behind the defense but couldn’t finish the catch. The 49ers have to be ecstatic about how this is going. All 5 targets from last night below:
Ryan Paganetti578,061 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
How rare was De’Zhaun Stribling’s performance last night? He just became the second NFL receiver in the past decade to catch seven passes in the first 20 minutes of a preseason game. We broke down Stribling, Allar, Mendoza, and all of last night’s standout performances in our newest episode, out now on YouTube. Subscribe below if you’re interested in more analysis like this: All seven of Stribling’s catches below ⬇️
Ryan Paganetti662,646 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Jonah Coleman got pulled after 4 first quarter carries and the last two runs speak for themselves (all carries in video below) Sean Payton was quite happy with what he saw in post game quotes Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points was all over him in the pre-draft process as a potential undervalued player Once upon a time, I used to ask staffers to keep tabs on Scott's posts because he would find so many good nuggets that we missed on from the team side. 100% conviction the fantasy points guys have a better grasp for RB importance/talent than some sitting NFL GMs
Ryan Paganetti479,671 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Florida State’s innovative “Tornado Punt” increased their chances to win the game by 15.7%! Punt muffs are one of the greatest value adds in the sport, as you are getting a turnover AND 40-50 yards of field position. The Rams may have won the Super Bowl with no muff in CC game!
Ryan Paganetti144,479 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen
Bills QB Josh Allen was playing with fire too much in this preseason start, getting hit on multiple snaps where there was no need I would consider putting preseason rules in place for your franchise QB that he is required to throw the ball away if anyone gets remotely close Also, WR DJ Moore had a catch for a big gain and chose to try to run a DB over when he very easily could have got out of bounds. Poor risk management, and he later unfortunately was injured All of Josh Allen's dropbacks from the game:
Ryan Paganetti141,648 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Watch the clock burning strategy in action in this historic 2018 AFC Championship game
Ryan Paganetti191,377 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat
Could not feel stronger that you want to have a pusher for sneaks at the half yard line when the D knows what you are going to do and you are doing it anyways. Maybe some window dressing on it with a motion so it isn’t obvious Pretty good chance this decides the game
Ryan Paganetti26,272 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen
My experience from the coaching booth on the Philly Special
Ryan Paganetti12,290 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten