Sina Toossi
@SinaToossi • 39,876 subscribers
senior fellow @CIPolicy | tweets mostly on Iran, US foreign policy, Middle East | bylines in @ForeignAffairs, @ForeignPolicy, @Guardian, and elsewhere.
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Araghchi briefly appeared in the same room with Vance before the cameras. But Iranian sources report Tehran refused to enter the meeting until journalists left, rejecting what they called an American "media show." Iran is still denying Trump the photo-op he's long sought.
Sina Toossi185,440 views • 1 month ago
Iran is deep in Muharram mourning rituals ahead of Ashura tomorrow. This year's ceremonies have been shaped by the aftermath of the war, giving the themes of sacrifice, loss, resistance, martyrdom a renewed resonance. Scenes from Tehran, Karaj, Yazd, Zanjan in recent days 👇
Sina Toossi103,873 views • 1 month ago
🧵In a striking moment at the White House today, Trump told reporters that direct talks with Iran have begun—and will continue this Saturday. The implications could be huge. Here's why this matters and what could really be happening behind the scenes. >>>
Sina Toossi759,412 views • 1 year ago
.Majid Shakeri, an advisor to Ghalibaf: "Either we hold on to the Strait, or every single one of us become martyrs for it." Hormuz is indispensable to Iran's postwar strategy. As he puts it, "Revenue is subordinate to control." Iran's main goal is maximum lasting leverage.
Sina Toossi24,911 views • 19 days ago
For the first time in roughly a decade, an Iranian civilian airliner flew directly from Tehran to Sana'a to bring officials from the Houthi-led government to Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral. Saudi Arabia reportedly attempted to stop the flight but ultimately did not. There has been no direct official air link between Iran and Ansarallah-controlled Sana'a for nearly ten years. Sana'a airport itself has repeatedly been attacked, and its only passenger aircraft destroyed in an Israeli strike last year. Iranian analysts argue this flight is intended to be the first of many. If sustained, it would represent the gradual breaking of Yemen's air siege and the establishment of a permanent Tehran-Sana'a corridor for diplomatic, commercial, and broader strategic ties. Viewed alongside Hormuz and Lebanon, the flight reflects a broader Iranian postwar strategy. Tehran appears intent on using the leverage it gained during the war to reshape the regional balance in its favor. That means not only easing pressure on Iran itself, but on its "Axis of Resistance" allies—from using the MOU to press for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon to now challenging the decade-long isolation of its ally in Sana'a.
Sina Toossi22,420 views • 20 days ago
Iranian analyst says if war restarts, Iran has will & capability to escalate with more devastating strikes on energy infrastructure. He says past drone attacks were just a signal. If it chooses, Iran could use missiles or hit more precisely, targeting UAE's Bu Hasa & Zirku.
Sina Toossi76,293 views • 3 months ago
Massive funeral processions for Iran's slain Ayatollah Khamenei in the Iraqi cities of Najaf & Karbala today. Imagine Saddam Hussein or Khomeini seeing this. Actually, someone show George W Bush. The depth of ties between these two Shia-majority countries is extraordinary.
Sina Toossi18,754 views • 18 days ago
Trump's statement today that the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding is "over" should not come as a surprise. The agreement was never a peace deal. It was a confidence-building arrangement meant to create the conditions for broader nuclear negotiations. Those conditions have largely collapsed. The Israeli war in Lebanon has not ended. Iranian frozen assets apparently remain largely inaccessible. The U.S. has revoked Iran's oil waiver. Threats, explicitly prohibited by the MOU, never ceased. And the Strait of Hormuz has remained fiercely contested. The deeper problem is that neither side believes the other will honor its commitments. From Tehran's perspective, that makes surrendering leverage over the Strait irrational. Hormuz has become the centerpiece of Iran's postwar strategy. "Control" for it does not primarily mean closing the Strait. It means directing commercial traffic through Iranian-designated routes and, over time, establishing a system in which Iran and Oman administer navigation and maritime services while giving Tehran lasting economic and strategic leverage. Iranian officials see this as indispensable because they do not believe that American promises of sanctions relief can provide a durable economic future. Sanctions can be reimposed by the President or the next administration, blocked by Congress, or undermined by the broader political environment. Hormuz cannot. That is the real lesson Tehran believes it has learned from years of negotiations with the United States. Lasting security cannot depend on promises. It must rest on tangible leverage. Hormuz gives Iran something sanctions relief never could: a way to tie its own prosperity, and the costs of coercing it, directly to the prosperity of the Persian Gulf and the global economy. International politics is not Model UN. It is not ultimately sustained by goodwill or unenforceable promises. It is shaped by leverage, incentives, and the ability of states to project power, impose costs and protect their interests. States do not build their long term security on assurances they cannot enforce. That is why the memorandum is falling apart. There is virtually no trust on either side. After decades of sanctions reversals, broken commitments, and now two direct wars, Tehran is not betting its future on American promises. It's betting on tangible leverage that no President, future administration or Congress can simply take away.
Sina Toossi18,650 views • 19 days ago
Professor John Mearsheimer warns that Israel is in "deep trouble" after Hanniyeh's assassination. With no military solutions to external threats, internal chaos threatening civil war, & crippling dependence on US support, their problems are "unfixable & they're digging deeper."
Sina Toossi435,002 views • 2 years ago
👇 This is an important window into how Iran is viewing the current diplomatic track. A post-Islamabad interview with Majid Shakeri, an advisor to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Iran’s delegation in Islamabad and headed talks with JD Vance. It offers a revealing look into how the Iranian side, especially Ghalibaf’s camp, is assessing the process. He says the first round was fundamentally about each side evaluating the other. But he highlights a core “problem” with the US delegation: “it neither has clear goals nor does it have the necessary mandate and the necessary ability for decision-making.” At the same time, he claims that for everything raised, “a solution truly existed.” His overall assessment of the round is telling: it was “not completely failed or completely won,” and no one expected that in a single round, a “result would immediately be created.” On escalation, he addresses Trump’s blockade threat. He says it is unclear whether it is a bluff or not. But in either case, he suggests it does not fundamentally alter Iran’s position, where the Strait of Hormuz remains its key leverage. More striking is his description of Iran’s economic posture. He argues Iran has long prepared for a blockade scenario. With imports reduced during the war, it now has more resources and liquidity, including proceeds from oil sold at sea. And this line stands out: “parallel to the war” the “the sale of Iranian oil no longer has any connection to the Dirham or any type of infrastructure susceptible to sanctions or American pressure.” If true, that is a significant shift given Iran’s previous dependence on UAE-linked financial channels. He adds that oil trade and currency exchange are now happening at the point of sale, for example in China. He also points to a broader logistical shift, saying Iran has diversified away from southern and western routes toward land-based and other alternatives, and that this transition is already complete for vital goods. On a wider geopolitical level, he argues a US blockade would “expand the game” by pulling in China more directly, ultimately to Iran’s benefit. He also notes that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and shifts toward Red Sea export routes increase the leverage of actors like the Houthis. His closing assessment is blunt. He characterizes US decision-making currently as irrational and argues Washington is pursuing a path that raises costs for both sides while making the situation more entrenched and difficult to resolve.
Sina Toossi66,659 views • 3 months ago
👇This is a deeply misleading framing. Iranians are not being placed in front of targets. Many are voluntarily showing up to defend the infrastructure that keeps their society alive. You have famous artists like Ali Ghamsari at a power plant and Benyamin Bahadori at a bridge in Tehran, alongside other ordinary people doing the same. This is about people trying to safeguard electricity, water, and basic *civilization* under open threat. The real legal and moral question is why civilian infrastructure is being targeted at all.
Sina Toossi70,536 views • 3 months ago
We were told Iran was on the brink. That one more push would bring the Islamic Republic down. Netanyahu & Reza Pahlavi begged for revolt. Instead, we see a wave of mourning across the country for their dead. So who really understands Iran—and who just sells delusions?
Sina Toossi198,609 views • 1 year ago
👇 A revealing comment from Iranian economist Saeed Laylaz, whose leaked 2021 interview with Javad Zarif on “the battlefield vs diplomacy” ignited a seminal debate inside Iran over foreign policy and the IRGC’s role. Laylaz now argues there is effectively no meaningful deal on offer for Iran: even if Tehran gave Trump everything he wants, it would not fundamentally change Washington’s posture toward Iran. In that context, he says “surrender” amounts to suicide and Iran has no choice but “resistance.” This gets at one of the biggest flaws in the U.S. approach to Iran: diplomacy becomes impossible when the other side comes to believe sanctions and pressure are not meant to change behavior or reach compromise, but to permanently weaken their country and/or pave the way for war. Washington has spent years undermining its own ability to negotiate with Iran. This was not an accident. It was the product of sustained campaigns by hawkish groups and the Israel lobby network in Washington (a la FDD, UANI, WINEP, etc...), which openly pushed policies meant to kill even the possibility of diplomacy, from building a “sanctions wall” against future deals to politically entrenching maximalist untenable demands.
Sina Toossi43,923 views • 2 months ago
I think ignoring pro-government mobilization in Iran weakens ability to provide realistic analysis. The key is to separate: -regime capacity from regime legitimacy -short-term survival from long-term stability -protest movement setback from protest movement defeat A key part of Iran’s political reality today—one that shouldn’t be ignored for the sake of wishful thinking—is that the state has managed to bring sizable pro-government demonstrations onto the streets across multiple cities, even amid its brutal crackdown. This of course does not confer legitimacy on the Islamic Republic, nor does it erase the scale of repression, the hundreds confirmed killed so far, or the horrific violence obscured by internet shutdowns. But it does matter for assessing the immediate viability of protests or the efficacy of a US military attack on the country. As of now, there are no confirmed reports of major elite splits or security-force defections, though under conditions of near-total information blackout it is impossible to gauge the depth of internal fractures. What is visible is a state that has doubled down, relying on repression and foreign intervention narratives to rally its base. This suggests that a critical mass sufficient to topple the system has not yet formed. But it would be a grave mistake to conclude from this that the Islamic Republic can simply restore the prior, already highly volatile balance that existed between itself and society. The protesters’ message to the ruling elite has been unmistakable: coercion can no longer compel consent. Fear barriers have been breached. Iranians have en mass risked bullets to demand change. The state may suppress this round of protests, but without meaningful political and economic transformation, the conditions that produced them will persist. What lies ahead won't be stability for it, but a system limping forward—more brittle and increasingly vulnerable to the next eruption of public anger.
Sina Toossi84,051 views • 6 months ago
Iran is rolling out a major economic reform: shifting key subsidies directly to households & moving toward exchange-rate unification. The bet is currency stability, real income gains & reducing poverty. Whether it works—or eases unrest—remains is an open question. 🧵>>>
Sina Toossi86,206 views • 6 months ago
The level of flattery from Pakistan's PM today to Iran was striking. While hosting Pezeshkian, Shehbaz Sharif defended Iran's missile program, praised the Iranian people's wartime resistance, and announced plans to attend the funeral of Iran's assassinated Supreme Leader.
Sina Toossi18,252 views • 1 month ago