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The WARmonger

@TheWARmonger_ • 23,561 subscribers

Baseball history and modern stats. Great players and important numbers. Defensive metrics and crazy splits. SABR member, published sports research.

Shorts

85% catch probability on this ball from Statcast:

85% catch probability on this ball from Statcast:

797,554 views

Many requests for the game-tying Heim double past Jarren Duran yesterday. 80% catch probability on this ball from Statcast. Not a routine play, but Duran is generally good out there and should get this one. See his route in the first reply.

Many requests for the game-tying Heim double past Jarren Duran yesterday. 80% catch probability on this ball from Statcast. Not a routine play, but Duran is generally good out there and should get this one. See his route in the first reply.

356,598 views

Great play by Owen Caissie on the liner. Just 10% catch probability on this ball from Statcast, it's a 5-star play for Caissie!

Great play by Owen Caissie on the liner. Just 10% catch probability on this ball from Statcast, it's a 5-star play for Caissie!

314,236 views

New acquisition Tyrone Taylor filled in as the Cubs CF yesterday and made one of the best catches of the day. 15% catch probability on this one, and that doesn't consider dodging Ian Happ as he makes the play!

New acquisition Tyrone Taylor filled in as the Cubs CF yesterday and made one of the best catches of the day. 15% catch probability on this one, and that doesn't consider dodging Ian Happ as he makes the play!

231,476 views

Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

Routine catch here by Cody Bellinger, the best defensive LF in baseball. The out probability on this play from Statcast is just 45%, but his outstanding read and jump make everything we see look simple:

237,660 views

This ball had a 99% catch probability. -11.7 feet of jump below average.

This ball had a 99% catch probability. -11.7 feet of jump below average.

1,410,935 views

The Phillies moving Trea Turner off SS is inevitable, because it has to be (see video quoted here). Here are two more notes about Trea: 1) He STILL has 99th % speed (over 30 ft/sec in 2025) 2) Few players have ever caught a 5% ball, here's one that Trea got to fairly easily in 2016. Jump of +7.0 feet above average:

The Phillies moving Trea Turner off SS is inevitable, because it has to be (see video quoted here). Here are two more notes about Trea: 1) He STILL has 99th % speed (over 30 ft/sec in 2025) 2) Few players have ever caught a 5% ball, here's one that Trea got to fairly easily in 2016. Jump of +7.0 feet above average:

1,099,562 views

By request, the five five-star plays Pete Crow-Armstrong DID NOT catch this season. He caught the other ten. A thread. 🧵 #1- Jackson Merrill single. (5%)

By request, the five five-star plays Pete Crow-Armstrong DID NOT catch this season. He caught the other ten. A thread. 🧵 #1- Jackson Merrill single. (5%)

1,001,515 views

This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!

This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!

1,106,931 views

Sensational catch by Ian Happ! 15% catch probability from Statcast, it's a 5-star play. Good jump. Happ covered 66 feet on the play, his best work is before the camera finds him, also a great full-extension catch:

Sensational catch by Ian Happ! 15% catch probability from Statcast, it's a 5-star play. Good jump. Happ covered 66 feet on the play, his best work is before the camera finds him, also a great full-extension catch:

74,266 views

Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.

Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.

360,841 views

"Pete Crow-Armstrong, who gets the best jumps of just about anybody in the world". Statcast agrees, with PCA averaging 5.1 feet above average on his jumps (#1 by a good amount, almost all of that before the camera is on him). Makes the "catch" look quite easy because it is. 35% out probability on this ball:

"Pete Crow-Armstrong, who gets the best jumps of just about anybody in the world". Statcast agrees, with PCA averaging 5.1 feet above average on his jumps (#1 by a good amount, almost all of that before the camera is on him). Makes the "catch" look quite easy because it is. 35% out probability on this ball:

134,000 views

Enjoyed some jokes about PCA not catching this ball yesterday. 1% out probability on this ball from Statcast, rounded up to 5%.

Enjoyed some jokes about PCA not catching this ball yesterday. 1% out probability on this ball from Statcast, rounded up to 5%.

163,168 views

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

958,386 views

Julio Rodríguez got his first five-star "catch" of the season yesterday on this 15% ball. +.85 OAA, just not in the usual way...

Julio Rodríguez got his first five-star "catch" of the season yesterday on this 15% ball. +.85 OAA, just not in the usual way...

180,384 views

Pete Crow-Armstrong's kryptonite? A 116 MPH rocket off the bat of James Wood gets over PCA's head. 40% catch probability on this one, -10.8 jump below average. He's human after all.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's kryptonite? A 116 MPH rocket off the bat of James Wood gets over PCA's head. 40% catch probability on this one, -10.8 jump below average. He's human after all.

807,277 views

Lots of requests for the late night/early morning walk-off play in Los Angeles. This ball had a 95% catch probability. 0% catch actuality. Nice route, Magellan.

Lots of requests for the late night/early morning walk-off play in Los Angeles. This ball had a 95% catch probability. 0% catch actuality. Nice route, Magellan.

754,190 views

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Cruz Missile! Hardest hit ball ever recorded! (Statcast Era) 122.9 MPH off the bat. 432 feet.
0:35
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Cruz Missile! Hardest hit ball ever recorded! (Statcast Era) 122.9 MPH off the bat. 432 feet.

The WARmonger

777,267 views • 1 year ago

Throwback catch! Kevin Kiermaier (9/15/2017) Simply one of the best catches of all-time. 1% catch probability on this ball (rounded up to 5%). Covered 107 feet to rob JBJ, another CF wizard:
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Throwback catch! Kevin Kiermaier (9/15/2017) Simply one of the best catches of all-time. 1% catch probability on this ball (rounded up to 5%). Covered 107 feet to rob JBJ, another CF wizard:

The WARmonger

155,477 views • 3 months ago

Another gem by PCA at Wrigley this afternoon. 90 feet in 5.1 seconds to the ivy, catch prob not available until tomorrow. Jump was ~7 feet above average, so you can imagine how much tougher this play would be for an outfielder running that far behind Pete:
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Another gem by PCA at Wrigley this afternoon. 90 feet in 5.1 seconds to the ivy, catch prob not available until tomorrow. Jump was ~7 feet above average, so you can imagine how much tougher this play would be for an outfielder running that far behind Pete:

The WARmonger

80,598 views • 1 month ago

This ball had a 99% catch probability for the CF and a 90% catch probability for the RF:
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This ball had a 99% catch probability for the CF and a 90% catch probability for the RF:

The WARmonger

619,733 views • 1 year ago

Ceddanne Rafaela is one of few outfielders who can catch a 5% probability ball without diving. Such an amazing jump and pursuit it barely draws a reaction from the announcers. It's measurably one of the toughest catches we'll see this year. The vast majority of outfielders aren't getting close to this one, and the few who do are fortunate to catch it on the dive:
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Ceddanne Rafaela is one of few outfielders who can catch a 5% probability ball without diving. Such an amazing jump and pursuit it barely draws a reaction from the announcers. It's measurably one of the toughest catches we'll see this year. The vast majority of outfielders aren't getting close to this one, and the few who do are fortunate to catch it on the dive:

The WARmonger

166,993 views • 5 months ago

Throwback Catch! Billy Hamilton- 2016 Hamilton makes the diving grab of this 0% catch probability ball off Altuve's bat! 106 feet to cover. Then Billy completes the double play at 1B! Broadcast is wrong, it's a sac fly because the out at 1B is an appeal and therefore a timing play. Not a force. The run counts.
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Throwback Catch! Billy Hamilton- 2016 Hamilton makes the diving grab of this 0% catch probability ball off Altuve's bat! 106 feet to cover. Then Billy completes the double play at 1B! Broadcast is wrong, it's a sac fly because the out at 1B is an appeal and therefore a timing play. Not a force. The run counts.

The WARmonger

61,284 views • 1 month ago

Trent Grisham with the unbelievable amazing diving catch that had a 99% catch probability! Really. Jump: -14.3 (😬) Route Efficiency: 85.9% (47/50 so far today) Good finish, though!
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Trent Grisham with the unbelievable amazing diving catch that had a 99% catch probability! Really. Jump: -14.3 (😬) Route Efficiency: 85.9% (47/50 so far today) Good finish, though!

The WARmonger

206,298 views • 1 year ago

Dillon Dingler set the new season standard today for the fastest throw on a catcher assist! An 88.1 MPH dart out of one knee stance to nail Bobby Witt Jr.!
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Dillon Dingler set the new season standard today for the fastest throw on a catcher assist! An 88.1 MPH dart out of one knee stance to nail Bobby Witt Jr.!

The WARmonger

104,860 views • 1 year ago

Corbin Carroll led MLB in ideal attack angle with 68.4% in 2025. That's the % of swings with an attack angle between 5 and 20 degrees (optimal for line drives and hard contact). Not to be confused with launch angle, which is the angle the ball takes off the bat. The whole "round ball, round bat" concept makes that tougher to control. Data and visuals from Baseball Savant/MLB:
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Corbin Carroll led MLB in ideal attack angle with 68.4% in 2025. That's the % of swings with an attack angle between 5 and 20 degrees (optimal for line drives and hard contact). Not to be confused with launch angle, which is the angle the ball takes off the bat. The whole "round ball, round bat" concept makes that tougher to control. Data and visuals from Baseball Savant/MLB:

The WARmonger

60,183 views • 9 months ago

Of 432 players who had 200+ swings in 2025, the lowest average attack angle belonged to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1 degree.
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Of 432 players who had 200+ swings in 2025, the lowest average attack angle belonged to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1 degree.

The WARmonger

38,455 views • 9 months ago

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