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The most bullish Bitcoin chart is the one that keeps grinding higher while everyone stares at the spot price. The 4-year moving average of realized price is the market's smoothed cost basis. It is the slow, load-bearing floor under the entire asset, and it is still compounding at nearly...

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Adam Livingston

84,378 subscribers

49,510 次观看 • 20 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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If you get sad at Bitcoin's price going down, you are a high time preference little RAT. Bitcoin's 2-Year Moving Average, year by year: 2013: +1,393% 2014: +247% 2015: +10% 2016: +6% 2017: +442% 2018: +154% 2019: +29% 2020: +24% 2021: +216% 2022: +29% 2023: -25% 2024: +66% 2025: +77% One negative year in a decade and a half. The volatility is the toll. Up and to the right is the road.
0:41

If you get sad at Bitcoin's price going down, you are a high time preference little RAT. Bitcoin's 2-Year Moving Average, year by year: 2013: +1,393% 2014: +247% 2015: +10% 2016: +6% 2017: +442% 2018: +154% 2019: +29% 2020: +24% 2021: +216% 2022: +29% 2023: -25% 2024: +66% 2025: +77% One negative year in a decade and a half. The volatility is the toll. Up and to the right is the road.

Adam Livingston

52,092 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 WARNING: BULL TRAP IS STILL OPEN! Bitcoin dumped to $73,000. Most people call this a temporary dip. They are wrong. Structurally, this is the most bearish setup of the cycle. Here's why 90% of traders get wiped out by November 2026: The Trap: Price drops → "Just a temporary dip" → Everyone buys the support → Price crashes through it → Massive liquidations. The Reality: Global liquidity is drying up. Institutions are quietly exiting. The real bottom is still months away. The numbers don't lie. 2012: 405 days 2016: 362 days 2020: 376 days The capitulation window opens only in July-November 2026. The market doesn't crash all at once. It crashes, then gives you hope, then crashes again. That's how 90% of people get wiped out. Remember, I've predicted every major move for 10 years. I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $111,000 in October. Turn on notifications. Many will wish they had followed me sooner.
0:29

🚨 WARNING: BULL TRAP IS STILL OPEN! Bitcoin dumped to $73,000. Most people call this a temporary dip. They are wrong. Structurally, this is the most bearish setup of the cycle. Here's why 90% of traders get wiped out by November 2026: The Trap: Price drops → "Just a temporary dip" → Everyone buys the support → Price crashes through it → Massive liquidations. The Reality: Global liquidity is drying up. Institutions are quietly exiting. The real bottom is still months away. The numbers don't lie. 2012: 405 days 2016: 362 days 2020: 376 days The capitulation window opens only in July-November 2026. The market doesn't crash all at once. It crashes, then gives you hope, then crashes again. That's how 90% of people get wiped out. Remember, I've predicted every major move for 10 years. I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $111,000 in October. Turn on notifications. Many will wish they had followed me sooner.

MARMOT

44,098 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 BILLIONAIRE ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI WITH HIS MOST SPECIFIC BITCOIN CALL YET: "If you study the hash rate and you study the miner economics, this should recover in the 4th quarter of 2026, and we should be in a rising market in 2027." Hash rate: measures the computing power securing the Bitcoin network. When it recovers after miner capitulation, price historically follows. Miner economics: when the least efficient miners shut down at current prices, supply tightens. The cost floor becomes the price floor. Charles Schwab's research desk put the efficient miner production cost at $60,000. The network is near that floor right now. Scaramucci has been investing for 38 years. He is watching the same data the miners are watching. Q4 2026. Rising market in 2027. Mark the date.
1:39

🚨 BILLIONAIRE ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI WITH HIS MOST SPECIFIC BITCOIN CALL YET: "If you study the hash rate and you study the miner economics, this should recover in the 4th quarter of 2026, and we should be in a rising market in 2027." Hash rate: measures the computing power securing the Bitcoin network. When it recovers after miner capitulation, price historically follows. Miner economics: when the least efficient miners shut down at current prices, supply tightens. The cost floor becomes the price floor. Charles Schwab's research desk put the efficient miner production cost at $60,000. The network is near that floor right now. Scaramucci has been investing for 38 years. He is watching the same data the miners are watching. Q4 2026. Rising market in 2027. Mark the date.

WOLF Bitcoin

26,908 次观看 • 1 个月前

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Democrats are fuming after local news is forced to report gas prices are PLUMMETING near $2 under President Trump in certain areas, the lowest in 4 YEARS 🇺🇸 "It is PERCECT timing for everyone that is leaving and heading out to wherever their holiday destination is!" "The last time that the national gas price average was below $3 was four years ago!" "This time last year, the prices were up about a dollar." "AAA says that right now the national average is about $2.86. This is the first time in the gas price average was below $3 since May of 2020." "But the tri-state is sitting at even lower prices in the Cincinnati area. A gallon of regular unleaded gas is right around $2.54!" "In northern Kentucky, the average is a bit higher at $2.60 and prices in our highest, if you can even call it that, in southeastern Indiana with an average of $2.80."
1:01

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Democrats are fuming after local news is forced to report gas prices are PLUMMETING near $2 under President Trump in certain areas, the lowest in 4 YEARS 🇺🇸 "It is PERCECT timing for everyone that is leaving and heading out to wherever their holiday destination is!" "The last time that the national gas price average was below $3 was four years ago!" "This time last year, the prices were up about a dollar." "AAA says that right now the national average is about $2.86. This is the first time in the gas price average was below $3 since May of 2020." "But the tri-state is sitting at even lower prices in the Cincinnati area. A gallon of regular unleaded gas is right around $2.54!" "In northern Kentucky, the average is a bit higher at $2.60 and prices in our highest, if you can even call it that, in southeastern Indiana with an average of $2.80."

Eric Daugherty

268,887 次观看 • 7 个月前

Bitcoin just touched the 50 month moving average for the 4th time ever. 2015 bottom zone. 2018 the bottom. 2022 the bottom. 2026 right now. The 20 week moving average sits at $71,000. Every prior bear market bottom was confirmed the same way: reclaim the 20 week, test the 50 week, bottom was in. If Bitcoin makes that move sooner rather than later, the "Q4 bottom" thesis doesn't have months left to be proven right. It has weeks. I respect the 4 year cycle analysis and consider the possibilities. But PMI just flipped to expansion, copper/gold is breaking out, and every prior time that combination showed up, a crypto bull market followed. Both theories about to be tested at the same time. We're about to find out which cycle Bitcoin actually answers to.
13:38

Bitcoin just touched the 50 month moving average for the 4th time ever. 2015 bottom zone. 2018 the bottom. 2022 the bottom. 2026 right now. The 20 week moving average sits at $71,000. Every prior bear market bottom was confirmed the same way: reclaim the 20 week, test the 50 week, bottom was in. If Bitcoin makes that move sooner rather than later, the "Q4 bottom" thesis doesn't have months left to be proven right. It has weeks. I respect the 4 year cycle analysis and consider the possibilities. But PMI just flipped to expansion, copper/gold is breaking out, and every prior time that combination showed up, a crypto bull market followed. Both theories about to be tested at the same time. We're about to find out which cycle Bitcoin actually answers to.

Dan Gambardello

23,742 次观看 • 1 个月前

Metaplanet from $1.83 to $69. Model assumptions: $100M/month preferred issuance of MARS 6% preferred cost 30% BTC CAGR Sell common stock to pay dividends Zero common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, EVER CEBE mNAV linear expansion to 1.55x over 10 years. Start: 40,177 BTC 2,729 CEBE sats/share $1.83 implied price Year 10: 74,166 BTC 4,381 CEBE sats/share $69.12 implied price That is 37.8x in the model. And the share count only rises 10.7%. If you can raise fiat claims at 6% and buy Bitcoin compounding at 30%, the spread is the entire trade. CEBE is the scoreboard. Metaplanet is turning fiat liabilities into residual Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders. That is the flywheel once prefs get here. And what if they can raise more than $100m per month? The senior claim ratio of the balance sheet peaks at month 15 of this model. They have plenty of room to continue adding leverage. Bullish Metaplanet.
0:29

Metaplanet from $1.83 to $69. Model assumptions: $100M/month preferred issuance of MARS 6% preferred cost 30% BTC CAGR Sell common stock to pay dividends Zero common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, EVER CEBE mNAV linear expansion to 1.55x over 10 years. Start: 40,177 BTC 2,729 CEBE sats/share $1.83 implied price Year 10: 74,166 BTC 4,381 CEBE sats/share $69.12 implied price That is 37.8x in the model. And the share count only rises 10.7%. If you can raise fiat claims at 6% and buy Bitcoin compounding at 30%, the spread is the entire trade. CEBE is the scoreboard. Metaplanet is turning fiat liabilities into residual Bitcoin exposure for common shareholders. That is the flywheel once prefs get here. And what if they can raise more than $100m per month? The senior claim ratio of the balance sheet peaks at month 15 of this model. They have plenty of room to continue adding leverage. Bullish Metaplanet.

Adam Livingston

42,778 次观看 • 1 个月前

At the beginning of 2025, I posted "we just entered the most bullish year of the 4-year cycle." I was wrong. Most of the industry was wrong. 2025 was actually the bear market. But here's what I learned... The 4-year cycle was a mirage. What actually matters is what the Fed is doing, what liquidity is doing, what the business cycle is doing And right now... QT just ended PMI ready to expand Institutions accumulating while retail quits If you're still here, you're one of the few left standing. The setup going into 2026 is strong. Intro 00:00 Retail has left 2:00 I was wrong about 2025 3:10 Crypto doesn’t need retail 5:30 Altcoins may need a few months… 10:00 Big altcoin momentum indicator 10:45
16:27

At the beginning of 2025, I posted "we just entered the most bullish year of the 4-year cycle." I was wrong. Most of the industry was wrong. 2025 was actually the bear market. But here's what I learned... The 4-year cycle was a mirage. What actually matters is what the Fed is doing, what liquidity is doing, what the business cycle is doing And right now... QT just ended PMI ready to expand Institutions accumulating while retail quits If you're still here, you're one of the few left standing. The setup going into 2026 is strong. Intro 00:00 Retail has left 2:00 I was wrong about 2025 3:10 Crypto doesn’t need retail 5:30 Altcoins may need a few months… 10:00 Big altcoin momentum indicator 10:45

Dan Gambardello

58,417 次观看 • 6 个月前

🚨 I CANNOT LOOK AWAY FROM THIS CHART Bitcoin just completed its 4-year cycle: Cycle 1 (2011 - 2014) 2011 - Buy 2012 - Hold 2013 - Sell 2014 - Bear Market Cycle 2 (2015 - 2018) 2015 - Buy 2016 - Hold 2017 - Sell 2018 - Bear Market Cycle 3 (2019 - 2022) 2019 - Buy 2020 - Hold 2021 - Sell 2022 - Bear Market Cycle 4 (2023 - 2026) 2023 - Buy 2024 - Hold 2025 - Sell 2026 - Bear Market (we are here) Cycle 5 (2027 - 2030) 2027 - Buy 2028 - Hold 2029 - Sell 2030 - Bear Market So far the 4 year cycle is still on track and everything is playing out perfectly. If the structure holds, 2027 becomes the next major accumulation window. I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years. When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:30

🚨 I CANNOT LOOK AWAY FROM THIS CHART Bitcoin just completed its 4-year cycle: Cycle 1 (2011 - 2014) 2011 - Buy 2012 - Hold 2013 - Sell 2014 - Bear Market Cycle 2 (2015 - 2018) 2015 - Buy 2016 - Hold 2017 - Sell 2018 - Bear Market Cycle 3 (2019 - 2022) 2019 - Buy 2020 - Hold 2021 - Sell 2022 - Bear Market Cycle 4 (2023 - 2026) 2023 - Buy 2024 - Hold 2025 - Sell 2026 - Bear Market (we are here) Cycle 5 (2027 - 2030) 2027 - Buy 2028 - Hold 2029 - Sell 2030 - Bear Market So far the 4 year cycle is still on track and everything is playing out perfectly. If the structure holds, 2027 becomes the next major accumulation window. I’ve been in finance for more than 15 years. When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll say it here publicly, like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

28,871 次观看 • 2 个月前

Anthony Scaramucci on Bitcoin & crypto: "I still like it. I own a lot of it." "I think Bitcoin starts to rally late in the 4th quarter of 2026 into early 2027." "Is Michael (Saylor) in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble...I like it. I like him. I think he's going to be right." "We're at the point in the cycle where the RSI is at an all time low for Bitcoin. The apathy is there. No one cares about (crypto) anymore. If you look at Google searches they're way way down." This is "my 38th year as an investor: When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin thin market...a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price."
2:37

Anthony Scaramucci on Bitcoin & crypto: "I still like it. I own a lot of it." "I think Bitcoin starts to rally late in the 4th quarter of 2026 into early 2027." "Is Michael (Saylor) in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble...I like it. I like him. I think he's going to be right." "We're at the point in the cycle where the RSI is at an all time low for Bitcoin. The apathy is there. No one cares about (crypto) anymore. If you look at Google searches they're way way down." This is "my 38th year as an investor: When you have RSI where it is, apathy where it is, and it's a thin thin market...a tiny bit of demand for Bitcoin moves the price."

Altcoin Daily

184,617 次观看 • 1 个月前

WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THIS? $60K was probably the $BTC bottom, and that too based on the 4-year cycle. Each cycle, BTC has made a new ATH. And the bottom happened exactly 23 months after making a new ATH. In Jan 2017, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in December 2018. In December 2020, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in November 2022. This cycle, Bitcoin made a new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by history, the bottom has already happened in Feb 2026 (23 months). And there are other things too supporting this. During the Feb 2026 dump: - Weekly RSI hit a 4-year low - The sentiment index went to its lowest ever - Retest of the 2021 cycle ATH All these things combined have previously marked the bottom for Bitcoin, and maybe "THIS TIME IT'S NOT DIFFERENT."
0:27

WHY IS NO ONE TALKING ABOUT THIS? $60K was probably the $BTC bottom, and that too based on the 4-year cycle. Each cycle, BTC has made a new ATH. And the bottom happened exactly 23 months after making a new ATH. In Jan 2017, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in December 2018. In December 2020, Bitcoin made a new ATH. The bottom happened exactly 23 months later, in November 2022. This cycle, Bitcoin made a new ATH in March 2024. If it goes by history, the bottom has already happened in Feb 2026 (23 months). And there are other things too supporting this. During the Feb 2026 dump: - Weekly RSI hit a 4-year low - The sentiment index went to its lowest ever - Retest of the 2021 cycle ATH All these things combined have previously marked the bottom for Bitcoin, and maybe "THIS TIME IT'S NOT DIFFERENT."

Ash Crypto

248,787 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! Bitcoin dump is just getting started. And $BTC now follows the path to the market cycle bottom. My target for the bottom: $50,000. Let me explain: The Bitcoin CME Death Cross is playing out exactly as 2022. In 2022, after the Death Cross, BTC dumped from $30K to $17K. That was a -42% move. Now in 2026, the same structure is appearing again. BTC already dumped from $83K to $60K. That is only -26% so far. Halfway through the same pattern. The market is following the same chart. Same cross. Same direction. And if this pattern completes like 2022, the next major level is still below. That is exactly why my target is $50,000. This is not random price action. This is the same Death Cross setup that destroyed the market in 2022. Most people think the bottom is close. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:49

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! Bitcoin dump is just getting started. And $BTC now follows the path to the market cycle bottom. My target for the bottom: $50,000. Let me explain: The Bitcoin CME Death Cross is playing out exactly as 2022. In 2022, after the Death Cross, BTC dumped from $30K to $17K. That was a -42% move. Now in 2026, the same structure is appearing again. BTC already dumped from $83K to $60K. That is only -26% so far. Halfway through the same pattern. The market is following the same chart. Same cross. Same direction. And if this pattern completes like 2022, the next major level is still below. That is exactly why my target is $50,000. This is not random price action. This is the same Death Cross setup that destroyed the market in 2022. Most people think the bottom is close. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

43,337 次观看 • 1 个月前

When people talk about Bitcoin, they usually anchor the conversation to price, halving & liquidity cycles, ETF flows, short-term volatility. But that mindset is far too limited. While price is signal, its short term variations are meaningless. Grant Cardone If we genuinely want to understand where Bitcoin can go, we have to stop fixating on price entirely and shift toward TAM (Total Addressable Market). Not TAM in a linear sense, but TAM in a cubed sense. This is where Peter Dunworth framework is so powerful. Instead of treating Bitcoin as an asset that competes in one market, he forces us to recognize that Bitcoin is simultaneously disrupting and replacing three of the most fundamental monetary domains: •store of value, •medium of exchange, and •unit of account. Put together, this is the worlds first “triple point asset”, or what you could call money cubed - a monetary technology that compounds across all three functions at once. And once you understand that framing, the conversation shifts from short-term price movements to the structure of the global financial system and the total markets Bitcoin is absorbing. Dunworth walks through those mechanics with absolute clarity. He illustrates how a fixed-issuance monetary network interacts with a world built on constantly expanding economic activity. When global settlement flows and monetary throughput collide with an asset whose supply schedule is permanently capped, the system is forced to revalue itself to handle that load. It’s a simple but profound dynamic: increasing global demand flowing through a monetary base that cannot expand. The result isn’t a forecast; it’s the natural economic physics of a system that cannot inflate to absorb growth, and therefore must reprice to accommodate it. This is how TAM compounds in an exponential, not linear, way… and why thinking in terms of “price targets” misses the entire point. And if it takes 30 or 40 years for this transition to unfold, that still aligns with the broader monetary reality. Fiat currencies will continue to debase, global economic output will keep expanding, and Bitcoin will remain the one monetary instrument whose supply is perfectly fixed. At some point, we have to place a net present value on all future economic activity being denominated, settled, or stored in a system that cannot be diluted. That is the essence of Dunworth’s framework: Don’t focus on numbers. Don’t obsess over timelines. Focus on the mechanics, the TAM, and the triple-layered monetary disruption. Because once you see Bitcoin as money to the third power (a store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account all compounding together) the future valuation isn’t a prediction. It’ a logical endpoint of how the protocol is built.
8:08

When people talk about Bitcoin, they usually anchor the conversation to price, halving & liquidity cycles, ETF flows, short-term volatility. But that mindset is far too limited. While price is signal, its short term variations are meaningless. Grant Cardone If we genuinely want to understand where Bitcoin can go, we have to stop fixating on price entirely and shift toward TAM (Total Addressable Market). Not TAM in a linear sense, but TAM in a cubed sense. This is where Peter Dunworth framework is so powerful. Instead of treating Bitcoin as an asset that competes in one market, he forces us to recognize that Bitcoin is simultaneously disrupting and replacing three of the most fundamental monetary domains: •store of value, •medium of exchange, and •unit of account. Put together, this is the worlds first “triple point asset”, or what you could call money cubed - a monetary technology that compounds across all three functions at once. And once you understand that framing, the conversation shifts from short-term price movements to the structure of the global financial system and the total markets Bitcoin is absorbing. Dunworth walks through those mechanics with absolute clarity. He illustrates how a fixed-issuance monetary network interacts with a world built on constantly expanding economic activity. When global settlement flows and monetary throughput collide with an asset whose supply schedule is permanently capped, the system is forced to revalue itself to handle that load. It’s a simple but profound dynamic: increasing global demand flowing through a monetary base that cannot expand. The result isn’t a forecast; it’s the natural economic physics of a system that cannot inflate to absorb growth, and therefore must reprice to accommodate it. This is how TAM compounds in an exponential, not linear, way… and why thinking in terms of “price targets” misses the entire point. And if it takes 30 or 40 years for this transition to unfold, that still aligns with the broader monetary reality. Fiat currencies will continue to debase, global economic output will keep expanding, and Bitcoin will remain the one monetary instrument whose supply is perfectly fixed. At some point, we have to place a net present value on all future economic activity being denominated, settled, or stored in a system that cannot be diluted. That is the essence of Dunworth’s framework: Don’t focus on numbers. Don’t obsess over timelines. Focus on the mechanics, the TAM, and the triple-layered monetary disruption. Because once you see Bitcoin as money to the third power (a store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account all compounding together) the future valuation isn’t a prediction. It’ a logical endpoint of how the protocol is built.

MarylandHODL #BIP-110 (aka The Transition)

10,573 次观看 • 7 个月前

🚨 I'M WARNING YOU NOW. REMEMBER THIS. Everyone's getting excited about the bounce. That bounce is the bait. $BTC still has an unfilled gap at $70K, and price almost always goes back to close it. So expect the rally expect the euphoria, the "we're so back" posts, the crowd calling the bottom. That's phase one, and it's a trap. Because once it taps $70K, the smart money doesn't buy it sells. A week or two of quiet distribution up there while retail piles in, and then the floor gives way. First the break under $59K. Then the real flush toward $48K, fast and violent, the kind that liquidates everyone who bought the bounce. And the true bottom? It's lower than almost anyone is willing to say out loud down in the $38K–$44K zone. That's where this cycle actually resets. Not at the bounce. At the capitulation nobody wants to sit through. Most people think the bear market is over. I think the final chapter hasn't even started. Reminder: I called the bull trap at $82K and the summer drop before either one happened. Same read. Next chapter. The next call is the biggest of this entire cycle. Turn notifications on. Most people will follow me too late.
0:25

🚨 I'M WARNING YOU NOW. REMEMBER THIS. Everyone's getting excited about the bounce. That bounce is the bait. $BTC still has an unfilled gap at $70K, and price almost always goes back to close it. So expect the rally expect the euphoria, the "we're so back" posts, the crowd calling the bottom. That's phase one, and it's a trap. Because once it taps $70K, the smart money doesn't buy it sells. A week or two of quiet distribution up there while retail piles in, and then the floor gives way. First the break under $59K. Then the real flush toward $48K, fast and violent, the kind that liquidates everyone who bought the bounce. And the true bottom? It's lower than almost anyone is willing to say out loud down in the $38K–$44K zone. That's where this cycle actually resets. Not at the bounce. At the capitulation nobody wants to sit through. Most people think the bear market is over. I think the final chapter hasn't even started. Reminder: I called the bull trap at $82K and the summer drop before either one happened. Same read. Next chapter. The next call is the biggest of this entire cycle. Turn notifications on. Most people will follow me too late.

Shelpid.WI3M

172,384 次观看 • 22 天前

🚨 THE SPACEX PUMP JUST ACTIVATED THE INSIDER SELL BUTTON And almost nobody buying at $159 understands what just happened: SpaceX IPO’d at $135 on June 12. Five days later, it peaked at $226. Everyone was calling it the trade of the decade. Almost nobody understands what is really happening. 95% of SpaceX shares are still locked. You are trading on just 5% of the total supply. A $2.35 trillion valuation was set by a tiny float that can be moved by thin volume. Thin liquidity pumps easily and dumps easily as well. Now the part that should concern everyone buying here: There is a clause buried in the lockup agreement. An early unlock can trigger if the stock holds 30% above the $135 IPO price. 30% above $135 is $175. SpaceX peaked at $226. It opened the door to an additional insider unlock. If this isn’t surprising you, the calendar will: In a month, the first insider shares can hit the market around Q2 earnings. December 8: the full 180-day lockup will be over. June 2027: Musk’s 6.4 billion personal shares unlock. This creates enormous selling pressure. I saw this movie before: Facebook IPO’d at $38 in 2012. Four months later, it was trading at $18. 60% of the value was erased. Now look at SpaceX. $2.35 trillion peak valuation. $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. 125x sales. And Musk’s own $1 trillion revenue target is still “maybe by 2030.” You are paying for that future today. So ask yourself one question: Who is selling into your buy today, at $159? People who got in at $20/$40/$60. Insiders sitting on 5x, 8x, 10x gains who have waited years for this window. They do not need the price higher. They need buyers. And right now, that buyer is you. The rockets are real. The company is real. The technology is real. The unlock calendar is real too. At $159 after the $226 ATH, you are the exit. Remember: I was the one who publicly called Bitcoin’s ATH in October and cycle bottom in 2022. And I will call it again. That’s literally my job. Make sure to follow and turn notifications on. If you are not following yet, you will regret it.
0:39

🚨 THE SPACEX PUMP JUST ACTIVATED THE INSIDER SELL BUTTON And almost nobody buying at $159 understands what just happened: SpaceX IPO’d at $135 on June 12. Five days later, it peaked at $226. Everyone was calling it the trade of the decade. Almost nobody understands what is really happening. 95% of SpaceX shares are still locked. You are trading on just 5% of the total supply. A $2.35 trillion valuation was set by a tiny float that can be moved by thin volume. Thin liquidity pumps easily and dumps easily as well. Now the part that should concern everyone buying here: There is a clause buried in the lockup agreement. An early unlock can trigger if the stock holds 30% above the $135 IPO price. 30% above $135 is $175. SpaceX peaked at $226. It opened the door to an additional insider unlock. If this isn’t surprising you, the calendar will: In a month, the first insider shares can hit the market around Q2 earnings. December 8: the full 180-day lockup will be over. June 2027: Musk’s 6.4 billion personal shares unlock. This creates enormous selling pressure. I saw this movie before: Facebook IPO’d at $38 in 2012. Four months later, it was trading at $18. 60% of the value was erased. Now look at SpaceX. $2.35 trillion peak valuation. $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. 125x sales. And Musk’s own $1 trillion revenue target is still “maybe by 2030.” You are paying for that future today. So ask yourself one question: Who is selling into your buy today, at $159? People who got in at $20/$40/$60. Insiders sitting on 5x, 8x, 10x gains who have waited years for this window. They do not need the price higher. They need buyers. And right now, that buyer is you. The rockets are real. The company is real. The technology is real. The unlock calendar is real too. At $159 after the $226 ATH, you are the exit. Remember: I was the one who publicly called Bitcoin’s ATH in October and cycle bottom in 2022. And I will call it again. That’s literally my job. Make sure to follow and turn notifications on. If you are not following yet, you will regret it.

Alex Mason 👁△

227,060 次观看 • 29 天前

Introducing: The Bitcoin Battery. - - - This is a new Bitcoin price oscillator, envisioned as a battery. When in accumulation zones, the battery is full of potential energy. When the battery gets drained to near 0%, this is when the energy has been largely 'discharged', pushing the price near its peak for this cycle. After a cycle peak, time for the battery to fully charge again, so us HODLers can go back to stacking. Today we breached $108,000 - - - this puts the Bitcoin Battery at a 59.7% charge; PLENTY of charge to drain - electrons, Coulombs, amp-hours, watt-hours, etc. - to bring us to the cycle peak. Today that peak would be ~$188,000, but later this year >$200,000 is the target. - - - Follow along if you like this concept and would like to see its updates!
0:25

Introducing: The Bitcoin Battery. - - - This is a new Bitcoin price oscillator, envisioned as a battery. When in accumulation zones, the battery is full of potential energy. When the battery gets drained to near 0%, this is when the energy has been largely 'discharged', pushing the price near its peak for this cycle. After a cycle peak, time for the battery to fully charge again, so us HODLers can go back to stacking. Today we breached $108,000 - - - this puts the Bitcoin Battery at a 59.7% charge; PLENTY of charge to drain - electrons, Coulombs, amp-hours, watt-hours, etc. - to bring us to the cycle peak. Today that peak would be ~$188,000, but later this year >$200,000 is the target. - - - Follow along if you like this concept and would like to see its updates!

Sminston With 👁

27,873 次观看 • 1 年前

everyone is arguing whether spacex at $2 trillion is too expensive, almost nobody noticed what actually changed since 1980 apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue back then spacex wants you to buy at nearly $2 trillion and 100 times revenue now but the real story is not the price, it is that the entire nature of an IPO changed underneath us in 1980 you bought a business and hoped for a vision, in 2026 you buy the vision and hope for the business almost nobody buying this IPO on june 12 will read the 300 page document to understand which one they are actually getting i fed both filings to Claude and had it find the five differences that explain the whole shift that understanding is the edge most retail will never bother to get
5:30

everyone is arguing whether spacex at $2 trillion is too expensive, almost nobody noticed what actually changed since 1980 apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue back then spacex wants you to buy at nearly $2 trillion and 100 times revenue now but the real story is not the price, it is that the entire nature of an IPO changed underneath us in 1980 you bought a business and hoped for a vision, in 2026 you buy the vision and hope for the business almost nobody buying this IPO on june 12 will read the 300 page document to understand which one they are actually getting i fed both filings to Claude and had it find the five differences that explain the whole shift that understanding is the edge most retail will never bother to get

John Doe

1,203,202 次观看 • 1 个月前

The US is about to charge $30 million per tanker to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Trump just declared the US the "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and said it will take a 20% cut on all cargo passing through. Here is what that actually means. A fully loaded supertanker carries about 2 million barrels of oil. At $75 a barrel, that cargo is worth roughly $150 million. A 20% fee on that is $30 million. Per ship. Per crossing. Now compare that to what Iran was charging. Iran's toll has been running at $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel. On a $150 million cargo, that is about 1.3%. Trump called that toll unacceptable. His replacement is roughly 15 times more expensive. The scale of this is what nobody is talking about. Before the war, 20.3 million barrels of oil crossed Hormuz every single day. At $75 oil, that is $1.52 billion of crude moving through the strait daily. A 20% cut on that comes to roughly $304 million a day. That is about $111 billion a year. For comparison, Iran's entire toll system was projected to earn $1 billion to $2 billion a year at best. The US plan would collect more than 50 times that. There is no precedent for this anywhere in global trade. The Suez Canal charges roughly $300,000 to $700,000 per vessel. The Panama Canal is similar. Both are man-made canals that countries built and maintain. Hormuz is a natural waterway. Under international law, ships have a right of transit passage through it. That is the exact legal argument the US used against Iran's toll. And the cost does not land on the US. It lands on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, who ship the oil. And on China, India, Japan, and South Korea, who buy it. A $30 million fee per tanker works out to $15 per barrel. That gets passed straight into the price of crude. Oil is already up over 4% today. The strait that was supposed to reopen and lower prices is now being turned into the most expensive stretch of water on earth.
0:28

The US is about to charge $30 million per tanker to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Trump just declared the US the "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and said it will take a 20% cut on all cargo passing through. Here is what that actually means. A fully loaded supertanker carries about 2 million barrels of oil. At $75 a barrel, that cargo is worth roughly $150 million. A 20% fee on that is $30 million. Per ship. Per crossing. Now compare that to what Iran was charging. Iran's toll has been running at $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel. On a $150 million cargo, that is about 1.3%. Trump called that toll unacceptable. His replacement is roughly 15 times more expensive. The scale of this is what nobody is talking about. Before the war, 20.3 million barrels of oil crossed Hormuz every single day. At $75 oil, that is $1.52 billion of crude moving through the strait daily. A 20% cut on that comes to roughly $304 million a day. That is about $111 billion a year. For comparison, Iran's entire toll system was projected to earn $1 billion to $2 billion a year at best. The US plan would collect more than 50 times that. There is no precedent for this anywhere in global trade. The Suez Canal charges roughly $300,000 to $700,000 per vessel. The Panama Canal is similar. Both are man-made canals that countries built and maintain. Hormuz is a natural waterway. Under international law, ships have a right of transit passage through it. That is the exact legal argument the US used against Iran's toll. And the cost does not land on the US. It lands on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, who ship the oil. And on China, India, Japan, and South Korea, who buy it. A $30 million fee per tanker works out to $15 per barrel. That gets passed straight into the price of crude. Oil is already up over 4% today. The strait that was supposed to reopen and lower prices is now being turned into the most expensive stretch of water on earth.

The Macro Paper

62,329 次观看 • 10 天前

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:
0:20

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

66,707 次观看 • 2 个月前

Former Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore: “What the press secretary said is absolutely true, almost every single indicator on the economy is really strong… We’ve had 4% economic growth, the average family after inflation after taxes is $1,200 richer than they were at the start of the year. We used to measure inflation at, you know, the one barometer we always use was the gas price, that's by about 30%, the lowest in five years.” “We have all this capital coming the United States; the economy, in my opinion, as an economist, is really set up for a booming year in 2026. And yet, you know, the public doesn't, they don't — they're not seeing the love.” “And I don’t know why. I can’t explain it.”
0:41

Former Trump economic advisor Stephen Moore: “What the press secretary said is absolutely true, almost every single indicator on the economy is really strong… We’ve had 4% economic growth, the average family after inflation after taxes is $1,200 richer than they were at the start of the year. We used to measure inflation at, you know, the one barometer we always use was the gas price, that's by about 30%, the lowest in five years.” “We have all this capital coming the United States; the economy, in my opinion, as an economist, is really set up for a booming year in 2026. And yet, you know, the public doesn't, they don't — they're not seeing the love.” “And I don’t know why. I can’t explain it.”

RedWave Press

212,882 次观看 • 7 个月前

🚨 BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO TRAP EVERYONE THIS SUMMER. Everyone is positioned for lower. The next reversal will be brutal for bears. Everyone thinks the 2025 ATH was the top. But the chart is showing something completely different. Look at what happened after the 2021 ATH: → Brutal dump → Price returned to the long-term curve → Bears got confident → Bitcoin reversed hard Now look at $BTC today. Same curve, same reset, same trap forming. The crowd is waiting for lower. But the next reversal will be brutal for bears. This is where they get trapped. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
0:34

🚨 BITCOIN IS ABOUT TO TRAP EVERYONE THIS SUMMER. Everyone is positioned for lower. The next reversal will be brutal for bears. Everyone thinks the 2025 ATH was the top. But the chart is showing something completely different. Look at what happened after the 2021 ATH: → Brutal dump → Price returned to the long-term curve → Bears got confident → Bitcoin reversed hard Now look at $BTC today. Same curve, same reset, same trap forming. The crowd is waiting for lower. But the next reversal will be brutal for bears. This is where they get trapped. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

147,949 次观看 • 25 天前