Oracle Boar
@bored2boar • 25,799 subscribers
𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 / 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 / 𝗗𝗲𝗙𝗶 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀
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I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$98.40) > in 5 hours it showed +$493 PnL > current balance: +$3,279.73 Cost: 7.5M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below.
Oracle Boar78,062 просмотров • 24 дней назад
HOLY SH*T, GROK BOT BUYS A DOLLAR FOR 99 CENTS ON POLYMARKET AND NEVER LOSE THE TRADE uses the simples arbitrage formula: buy ONLY when YES + NO SCANNER watches both books at once - btc on polymarket, btc on kalshi > MATCHER links the pair and proves it is the exact same bet. pm yes ≠ kal no, one event > QUANT runs the math - sum 0.99, gross 1.0%, net 0.6% after fees, $179 a leg > RISK checks the books are deep enough to actually fill both sides > GROK holds the stopline. nothing locks until it says raise the gate > RUNNER fires both legs in one move and locks the spread. watches. links. checks. locks. the part i am proudest of is not the locks. it is the skips. when the edge is not truly risk-free, RISK shuts the gate and the bot passes. 2 passes this session. discipline over forcing a trade. most bots do not have that button, and it is exactly why they bleed. $9.90 locked in 5 mins on a $14,739 book. small on purpose while i size it up. all risk-free, all hands-off, all while i was doing anything else. that dashboard above is the live run. every light on the bridge is a real agent. full build in the article below. bookmark this.
Oracle Boar21,221 просмотров • 8 дней назад
I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$96.31) > in 5 hours it showed +$579 PnL > current balance: +$3,799.73 Cost: 10M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below. Good luck!
Oracle Boar155,166 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
POLYMARKET COPY TRADING SETUP (or how to make your bot print passively) Most traders consider mirroring as a passive income. And... They are RIGHT. But only if you set up your tools right. Copy trading bots have multiple features most traders skip. And that’s why they lose even when the trader is profitable. Here's how to set up your bot right: 1) Go to This is the fastest and the cheapest bot for both trading and copy trading on Polymarket 2) Click on Start -> Copy Trade -> Add 3) Click on Target Wallet and paste the wallet address 4) Click on Tag to name it (for example "Elections insider") 5) Click the next button to set up fixed amount or % I use a fixed amount for traders with a small trade count per day, and % for those who trade a lot and use limit orders. 6) Set slippage to 10% 7) Set up TP and SL if needed I don’t use them and fully rely on trader’s actions. 8) Skip the next four buttons and just set the Total Spend Limit. 9) Set Min and Max price if needed If you don’t want to take too much risk, set min $0.30 per share. 10) Click on Ignore Target Wallet Trades Under and set it to $5 This will help the bot avoid unnecessary trades. Now your setup is ready so click Create and watch your portfolio grow (if you picked decent wallets). I'll share BEST wallets to follow in my next post. Turn your notis on so you don't miss this.
Oracle Boar442,589 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Yesterday i publicly deposited $100 to a new wallet and asked Claude Fable 5 to double it on risk free arbitrage. Today it's sitting at $1,787.21 made overnight. I went through every code line and was shocked. It used just one formula to make 17x in one day: YES + NO Run the bot on a VPS close to the exchange instead of your laptop > Keep WebSocket connections alive instead of reconnecting every loop > Cache market metadata in memory and only update prices > Prepare both orders before the opportunity exists That last one changed everything. Most bots see YES + NO < $1, then build the trade. Mine already has the orders ready. When the spread appears, it only checks liquidity and submits both legs. No rebuilding. No unnecessary calculations. Just execution. Will you beat firms with million-dollar low-latency infrastructure? Probably not. But you don't need to. Most developers lose opportunities long before network latency becomes the bottleneck. They lose them inside their own code. Claude Fable 5 didn't give me a smarter strategy. It taught me how to stop wasting milliseconds. And in arbitrage, that's often the only edge that matters. Make sure to explain it to Claude if you wanna rebuild the same one. Leaving a full guide with every aspect covered below.
Oracle Boar102,418 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
THIS DEV BUILT A POLYMARKET BOT WITH GROK BUILD Now his AI agents print ~$2,700 per day PASSIVELY His wallet: [ Wanna hear the best part? He published the whole build for free. I've been building on Polymarket long enough to know what's real and what's a screenshot. This is real, and the wallet's public so anyone can check it. Here's what he actually did, for those who don't want to read the full thing yet: He took an arb bot, the kind that catches when Up and Down don't add up to a dollar, and rebuilt it around a team of Grok Build agents instead of one giant script. One agent hunts for the gap. One checks both legs can actually fill so you never end up naked on one side. One runs the fee math so a rebate-vs-fee mistake doesn't eat the whole edge. Then the bot merges each pair back into $1 instantly and recycles the capital, over and over. That recycling is the real secret, not the gap itself. A tiny edge run hundreds of times a day is where the $2,700 comes from. Here's what I respect about it. He's honest that the agents don't hand you the edge. They build the machine fast, but the strategy and the discipline are still on you. No "one prompt and you're rich" nonsense. Most people in this space would've locked this behind a paywall or a paid telegram. He put the code, the mechanics, and the wallet out in the open. If you're building bots and you're not following him, fix that. This is the honest version of what everyone else is trying to sell you. Attaching the full guide below.
Oracle Boar30,458 просмотров • 13 дней назад
I gave Claude full access to my Polymarket account and $100. Just one rule. Grow this by morning or I unplug you. Current wallet balance: +$4,865.36 And it didn't try to predict Bitcoin even ONCE. Here's what it did and why arb is smarter than 99% of traders: It went hunting for broken math. On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. the other ends at zero. Always. no middle ground. But the orderbook is sloppy and the two sides trade like strangers. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents locked, and it does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned every crypto market at once, hundreds of windows a second, never tired, never bored. The instant two sides summed under a dollar it grabbed both legs before the gap closed. Not one prediction the whole night. The honest catch is execution. These gaps live for seconds and fees eat the thin ones. A human can watch one market. A bot watches all of them and pounces the moment the math breaks. This is why vibe coding an arbitrage terminal is the fastest way to profit on prediction markets. Leaving the full guide below. Paste it into your own prompt and let see what happens. Bookmark while it's still public.
Oracle Boar121,480 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
COPY TRADING GUIDE FOR POLYMARKET (full video + exact settings included) I spent months testing different tools, setups and configs. Lost everything at the start. Then made it back and started earning once the setup was right. This cost me a lot of time, you need ~3 minutes: 1) Open this bot: I tried different tools, but this one has more advanced features and the fastest execution. 2. Click Copy trade -> Add Task -> W1 3. Paste wallet address and name it Use particular names like "AI trader", "sports 85% win rate whale" etc. 4. After entering the amount choose the exact setup: • Fixed (same trading amount every time) • Exact (each trade is the same as main trader's) • Portfolio based (proportional to your balance) You have to use the one that fits trader's beaviour. How to choose? • Use Fixed for traders with Start Congrats, now your bot runs automatically. This setup has worked best for me over the last 3 months. Hope this will help you too.
Oracle Boar207,014 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад
Those who copy traded him turned $200 into $88k. In one month. This trader is absolutely dominant in his niche. Win Rate: 90.3% 30d PnL: $88,457 Sector: esports He trades only CS:GO, LoL, and Dota 2 markets. And his results are insane. He probably resigned from work after realizing he can make $100k per month by watching Counter-Strike tournaments. By focusing on what he knows best, he turned gaming tournaments into a money printer. His profile: Wallet address: 0x25e28169faea17421fcd4cc361f6436d1e449a09 Full Polymarket copy trading guide is attached below.
Oracle Boar206,050 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад
Claude Fable 5 bots will REPLACE human traders Built the simplest arb bot for Polymarket in ~4 hours Cost: 5M tokens Current session PnL: +$2,793.36 And it still does one thing: Opening a trade when YES + NO One side pays $1, the other pays $0 So if both contracts can be bought for less than $1 combined, the math is in your favor. And it happens EVERY DAY hundreds of times due to orderbook inefficiency. For a few seconds YES sits at 48 cents while NO sits at 50. That's 98 cents you spend to buy a dollar. But the problem isn't finding these opportunities, it's getting there before everyone else. My first version was slow. Every loop it recalculated everything from scratch. Downloaded metadata, parsed markets, prepared orders, then checked prices. By the time it was ready, the opportunity was usually gone. The new version works differently. It caches all market metadata in memory and only refreshes the prices. Even more importantly, the orders are prepared before the opportunity exists. So when YES + NO finally drops below $1, there's almost nothing left to calculate. The bot just validates the numbers and fires both orders immediately. Those few hundred milliseconds sound tiny. But arbitrage is a race. The bot with the best strategy doesn't always win. The bot that gets there first usually does. Use this tip before building yours and make sure to explain Claude to focus on speed first. The detector is an easy part anyone can make. In arbitrage that's the only edge that matters. Attaching a full build guide below if you wanna deep dive into arb. Good luck!
Oracle Boar66,687 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
I gave Claude $100 and told it to exploit Polymarket. No strategy. No instructions. Just full access to my machine and one rule: grow this or get unplugged. It didn't try to predict a single thing. Instead it went hunting for math errors. Here is what it understood that most traders never do: On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to $1. One of them ends at a dollar, the other at zero. Always. But the orderbook is messy. For brief windows YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That is 96 cents to own both sides of a market that pays out a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents of profit that does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned for that gap across every crypto market at once. Hundreds of windows, every second, never tired, never distracted. The moment two sides summed under a dollar, it took both legs before the gap closed. By the end of the day it had stacked those tiny locked margins into $2,890. Not one prediction the entire time. The reason a person cannot do this is simple. These gaps live for seconds. You can watch one market. Automatic bot watches all of them and pounces the instant the math breaks. Leaving a full guide below this post, just use it in your prompt and let AI do the rest of work for you.
Oracle Boar48,182 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
I gave Claude Opus 5 full access to my laptop and turned on bypass permission mode. Asked him tuild me a Polymarket arbitrage bot. With no complicated strategy. Just this: Only open a trade when YES + NO < $1. I put $100 into the account and let it run. 2 hours: +$78.40 5 hours: +$479 Current balance: $1,791.30 in just 24 hours. Total Claude usage: roughly 7.5M tokens. But here's the part I find interesting: The bot doesn't care if Bitcoin goes up or down. It cares when the market prices both outcomes incorrectly. A BTC Up/Down market has two contracts: YES or NO At settlement, exactly one pays $1. The other pays $0. So buying both should cost $1. But during fast market moves, the two orderbooks can temporarily drift apart. For example: YES = $0.48, NO = $0.49 Combined = $0.97 The bot buys both. You're paying 97 cents for a position that settles to $1. That's a 3-cent gross spread without needing to predict BTC direction. And this isn't some complicated quant strategy. It's basic arbitrage. The difficult part is capturing it. These gaps can disappear almost instantly. A few cents of edge can also disappear after fees, slippage, or a bad fill. So the bot doesn't blindly buy every time the equation looks good. It checks the available liquidity, estimates the actual executable price, accounts for costs, and only fires when the remaining edge is large enough. It also has to handle the ugly scenario: One leg fills. The other doesn't. That's where a theoretical arbitrage can turn into a very real directional position. This is why I care much more about execution than adding another indicator. A human can find one opportunity. A bot can monitor hundreds of markets continuously. A human needs to click. The bot can react immediately. The strategy itself is almost boring. That's exactly why I like it. The interesting part is turning a simple mathematical rule into software that can actually execute it reliably. I shared the exact build process and prompts in my last article. Leaving it below if you want to build your own. The future of trading might just be better execution. Think bout that...
Oracle Boar22,315 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
I gave Claude full access to my Polymarket account and $100. Just one rule. Grow this by morning or I unplug you. Current wallet balance: +$3,284.84 And it didn't try to predict Bitcoin even ONCE. Here's what it did and why arb is smarter than 99% of traders: It went hunting for broken math. On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO have to add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. the other ends at zero. Always. no middle ground. But the orderbook is sloppy and the two sides trade like strangers. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH outcomes of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents locked, and it does not care where Bitcoin goes. Claude scanned every crypto market at once, hundreds of windows a second, never tired, never bored. The instant two sides summed under a dollar it grabbed both legs before the gap closed. Not one prediction the whole night. The honest catch is execution. These gaps live for seconds and fees eat the thin ones. A human can watch one market. A bot watches all of them and pounces the moment the math breaks. This is why vibe coding an arbitrage terminal is the fastest way to profit on prediction markets. Leaving the full guide below. Paste it into your own prompt and let see what happens. Bookmark while it's still public.
Oracle Boar19,021 просмотров • 27 дней назад
CLAUDE FABLE 5 UPDATE WILL REPLACE MANUAL TRADERS New update will change everything for devs. My current bot i made with Claude is still running. +5,474.62 PnL in a few days. (started with $100 publicly) And it never predicted a single candle to get there. One dead simple rule: YES + NO < $1. On a BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO must add up to exactly $1 at resolution. One side ends at a dollar. The other ends at zero. But the orderbook is messy and both sides trade like strangers. So for a few seconds YES sits at 47 cents while NO sits at 49. That's 96 cents to own BOTH sides of a market that pays a guaranteed dollar. 4 cents locked, and it does not care where Bitcoin goes. The whole game is speed. Gaps close in seconds, fees eat the thin ones, and you need both legs filled before it's gone. Here's where a better model actually changes things for us builders: It writes tighter execution code. Meaning less lag between spotting the gap and firing both legs. It also catches edge cases a dumber model misses (phantom fills, partial legs, the stuff that turns free money into a loss ). And it backtests and debugs way faster. Better model will open the next door for evey arb bot developer. The gap between button-clickers and builders was already wide. I guess tomorrow it turns into a smth different. Check my last articles if you're into arb. Made them free so our community of builders grow. Peace.
Oracle Boar41,934 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
Claude will replace manual traders in 2026. New update lets you give it full control of your computer. That's why I decided to test it with $100 and total access. Asked to turn it into $1,000 on Polymarket or I shut it down. 3 hours later it was scanning every wallet on Polymarket for copy trading opportunities. It found best wallets and started testing them through this bot: At first, it lost $73 trying each wallet to understand which ones were profitable. Then it picked 7 wallets, executed copy trades automatically and did something i don't believe even now. $3,467 profit in 24 hours. Automatically. With no monitoring. What’s insane is how it works: • Claude monitors hundreds of wallets 24/7 • Evaluates win rates, market timing and sizing • Tests micro trades to find the best strategy • Executes automatically with AL and TP rules This is why AI is mandatory in 2026. Markets move faster than humans, I've been telling it for months. Your edge is speed, analysis, and execution. Anyone still clicking buttons manually will lose edge within months. I just reinvested the profits and let Claude keep copy trading. This is the future. Manual trading is probably dead FOREVER.
Oracle Boar66,427 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад
The simplest arb bot on Claude Opus 5 made +$1,847 PnL in one day. And it used just one strategy: Buying YES + NO Market metadata being rebuilt every loop > API requests waiting on each other > Orders being created only after spread appeared > Functions doing work they didn't need to do None of those changes made the strategy smarter. They made it faster. Now the bot keeps market metadata cached in memory. Orders are prepared before the opportunity exists. Multiple markets are scanned concurrently instead of one by one. When YES + NO finally drops below $1, the bot isn't thinking anymore. It's simply executing. That's probably the biggest lesson I've learned building arbitrage bots. Most developers ask Claude: "Can you build me a trading strategy?" But here's momething no one will tell you... Much better prompt is: "Pretend you're a low-latency engineer and find every millisecond I'm wasting" That prompt improved my bot more than any new trading idea I've tried. You can try it today but make sure to add my arb guides into a memory of your new project. This will help claude undertsand the concept and fail less. Thank me later, next update on Wednesday space as always.
Oracle Boar19,613 просмотров • 1 месяц назад
IS IT EVEN LEGAL? This trader predicted US x Iran strike with 99.9% accuracy He made $500k by buying YES shares 24h before it happened The craziest part? The account was created yesterday... He suddenly started loading thousands into different US x Iran markets and won. Those who tracked or copy traded him made thousands. His wallet address: 0x1caa6a7ad0c6916aef7b67946de2e57ad24846a0 Added him to my copy trading list here: [ I’ll post an update once he opens his next position.
Oracle Boar60,721 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад
I left my bot running one rule while i slept: Open both sides on BTC market when YES + NO < $1 The result is absolutely shocking. Now simplest arb makes me ~$4,750 per Claude session. No charts, prediction or strategy. Only fire when the math on a market is broken. Here's exactly how it works: On every BTC Up/Down market, YES and NO add up to exactly $1 at the end. One side a dollar, one side zero. So if the book ever offers both for less than a dollar, you buy both and lock the difference. 47 cents for YES, 49 for NO. 96 cents for a guaranteed dollar, simple as that. 4 cents that doesn't care if Bitcoin pumps, dumps or sits dead flat. While i was asleep the scanner watched EVERY crypto market at once. Every second. All night. Each time the two sides summed under a dollar it took both legs before the gap snapped shut. I made exactly ZERO decisions overnight. The honest part: those gaps are thin and brief, fees kill the small ones, and you need both legs filled before it closes. So it skipped way more than it took. And that's correct behavior, not a bug. The best trade i made last night was probably going to sleep. Setup guide below if you want to build the same one. Make sure to compress this info into a prompt before pasting into Claude. Good luck, will drop an update in my next post.
Oracle Boar26,154 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад
You know NOTHING about arbitrage. If you watch sport or crypto markets, you already LOST. This guy makes $30k / month on weather markets. Because there's NO COMPETITION. His bot is trading every market AUTOMATICALLY. Here's how he applied the strategy from my article: His script identifies weather markets with spreads. And the best part is that almost each of them has it. Why? Because of low liquidity. This trader used one simple formula to trade those markets: Buy YES if P_model > P_market + T Buy NO if P_model < P_market − T So each time he's buying two outcomes at the same time. And wins. Check his last trade: It looks like he turned $200 into $6,000+ by betting on 0.2% outcome. But here's the real math: He he bought his YES shares at $0.002. At the same time he bought NO side at $0.994. The spread was tiny, just $0.004. That's why his actual profit is not $6k. He lost his NO position (-$6,072k) and won on YES side (+$6,172k). So his actual profit is just $100. His profile: He’s not betting on temperature. He’s buying a mispriced binary pair. If both sides together cost less than $1, the payout at resolution is $1. Most people try to be right. He just makes sure the math can’t be wrong. That's why you always have to double check everything. Details show the full picture.
Oracle Boar61,326 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад