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Claude Fable 5 bots will REPLACE human traders Built the simplest arb bot for Polymarket in ~4 hours Cost: 5M tokens Current session PnL: +$2,793.36 And it still does one thing: Opening a trade when YES + NO One side pays $1, the other pays $0 So if both...

66,250 görüntüleme • 15 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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I asked Claude Fable 5 (Extra High) to build an arb bot for Polymarket. One rule: trade only when YES + NO in 2 hours it almost doubled it (+$96.31) > in 5 hours it showed +$579 PnL > current balance: +$3,799.73 Cost: 10M tokens. Here's how it works and why: Every BTC Up/Down market on Polymarket has exactly two outcomes. YES and NO. When the market resolves, one pays $1. The other pays $0. That means owning BOTH sides should always cost exactly $1. But markets aren't perfect. Sometimes YES trades at $0.48 while NO trades at $0.49. Together that's only $0.97 so the bot instantly buys both. A position worth $1... for just $0.97. And Claude knows it, this is the simplest arb that exists. You can paste this to it and use this logic in your prompt. This $0.03 difference is locked in regardless of whether Bitcoin pumps, dumps, or goes sideways. No prediction required. And difficult part isn't finding the opportunity, it's execution. These pricing gaps usually disappear in seconds. If one order fills but the other doesn't, the trade can become a loss. So my bot constantly scans every BTC market, checks fees, validates liquidity, places both orders almost simultaneously and skips what isn't worth the risk. It's less like trading and more like catching tiny accounting mistakes before everyone else notices them. Funny enoughh, the hardest part was not writing arb logic. It was making the execution reliable enough that free money actually stayed free. This completely changed how I think about trading. What's the point of it if you can just fill mispriced BTC markets?? Automatically. The biggest edge is getting AI to execute simple ideas faster and more consistently than any human ever could. Shared the exact build in my last article, leaving it below. Good luck!

Oracle Boar

152,917 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce

One Python bot made $316K by finding the same loophole thousands of times. Broken prices appear every few seconds. This bot catches them before anyone else. I found distinct-baguette buried in a leaderboard. Another crypto bot grinding 15-minute windows. Almost closed the tab. Then I saw the win rate. 71%. That is low for a profitable bot. Way too low. Something was off. → Account: Turns out I was looking at it wrong. This bot does not predict anything. Does not care if BTC goes up or down. Does not read charts. Does not time entries. It just watches one thing: prices that do not add up. Sounds weird until you see the trick. Polymarket 15-minute windows have two sides. YES and NO. One of them always pays $1. So YES + NO should always equal $1. That is just math. But when markets move fast, prices slip. YES at 48 cents. NO at 49 cents. Total: 97 cents. The bot sees this. Buys both sides. Waits. Market closes. One side pays $1. He spent 97 cents. Keeps the 3 cent difference. Does not matter who wins. The script checks Polymarket every few seconds. BTC. SOL. XRP. Anything with volume. The moment prices slip under 99 cents combined, it fires. Three cents per trade. Repeat it tens of thousands of times. That is how you get to $316K. The 71% win rate finally made sense. He is not trying to pick winners. He is locking profit before the bet even resolves. Some trades the spread was not wide enough. Does not matter. The edge is in the volume. Everyone else bets on outcomes. This bot bets on broken math.

Blaze

337,995 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

In 2025 I created an Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi Polymarket Opinion The results were actually quite surprising I will share how much I've been able to make using the bot at the end of the thread! But first, how does it even work? 1. The Strategy A lot of the viral trading bots on X for Prediction Markets are trying to trade just within Polymarket, mostly on highly volatile markets. Buying quickly / selling quickly, this works great if you’re a VC with an infinite budget for development and the fastest infrastructure positioned right next to Polymarkets servers, but doesn't work great for regular traders. I knew building a bot here is like trying to out sprint Usain Bolt wearing flip flops So instead if i wanted to make a bot it would have to be doing something I haven't seen anyone else do So after engaging 100% of my brain I remembered how I'd seen many of the same markets when browsing Kalshi that I'd previously seen on Polymarket. If the odds were different I'd actually be able to arbitrage the two platforms. After checking 20 or so pairs I found a few examples where the odds were different, proving my theory. So i started building 2. The Bot I began crafting an algorithm that collects all the Polymarket, Kalshi & Opinion markets and identifies any that are the same. In total that's over 6,000,000 markets, billions of potential combinations, from that i found around 6,000 that match. A lot of markets have the same title, but slight differences in the rules that means an arbitrage is not possible. For example ‘Will Trump meet XYZ person before ABC date’ - many of these exist between Poly Kalshi but Kalshi defines ‘meeting’ as online, or in real life, whilst Polymarket defines it strictly as in real life. To verify the matches I first used an algorithm that sees if the titles / rules are similar, then I feed every one of those potential pairs into an LLM that is prompted to approve / reject the potential match. This part sounds like it should be easy, but the LLMs were all so inconsistent. I’d pass the same market 10 times and it would reject it twice and approve it eight times. After a lot of prompt engineering I finally got it to a stage where it's at least 99% accurate. The bot then recreates locally all the orderbooks for the matched markets and looks for any pairs with YES + NO values of < $1 & calculate how much you can profitably buy of each side ( your EV ) 3. An Example ‘SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap? 900B to 1T' This market exists on both Poly & Opinion, but right now the odds are different. YES / NO 4% / 97% - Polymarket 10% / 92% - Opinion Lets say you told the bot you wanted to trade $100 You’d split it $3.85 into Polymarket YES for 104.743 Shares $96.15 into Opinion NO for 104.743 Shares You spent $100, and you got 104.7 shares of each side And because 1 YES + 1 NO = $1 ( when the markets are identical ) Your expected profit is $4.7, because: value ( 104.7 shares * $1 ) - cost ( $100 ) = profit ( 4.7 Shares / $4.7 ) Then once the odds rebalance, usually a few days to a week, you can sell both sides and use the principal + the profit to take another arbitrage $100 isn't much, but imagine if you did $1000, or $10,000 every few days. Since creating the bot it has been finding around $350,000 in arbitrages from over 5,000 matching market pairs every month. That's more than I could ever take my self Assuming an average of 4% per arb (often more), It would take over $8,750,000 deployed to capture them all simultaneously That's why I initially shared the bot with some sharp sportsbook bettors for commission on their trades, eventually making it a public version that's on AlertPilot for anyone to use. 4. The Longevity Will this work forever? No, eventually a VC will come and eat our free lunch, it will become more competitive and the spreads wont be as high as they are now (+10% at times). My mantra here is just to make the most of it whilst I can, and release consistent updates so that it remains competitive against the competition. I already have a head start in that regard. I will say over the last 3 months of using the bot myself, plus adding traders / syndicates to the platform to trade as well, the amount of Arbitrages found has only increased. In large part no doubt to the huge increase in volume on PM’s, especially Opinion where many of the more profitable arbitrages have been. 5. The Profit So how much did I make? I started with a bankroll of $1,000 as I was skeptical initially how well the bot would work, first week I was able to close two 5% arbs. I then increased my bank roll and started sharing the bot with other traders. Since then I've been averaging five figures every month from my own trades + commissions. Anywhere between 12% to 20% per month in closed arbs, personally. To anyone reading this that wants to arbitraging these markets, i've released a version of the bot on AlertPilot! And for any VCs or betting syndicate that wants to trade these markets, my DMs are open. Aspiring trading bot makers, there is money out there if you can be creative in your strategies Have lots of plans for AlertPilot + the Arbitrage bot going into 2026. Happy new year everybody!

SecureZero is Hiring 

13,638 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

On Polymarket this bot outperforms luck. In 3 weeks it turned -$82 into $67K. A single algorithm executed 524 trades in one 10-min window. → Account: When I first analyzed the trade history I thought the API was malfunctioning. You never see over 500 orders in one candle unless the system is broken. But I checked the timestamps. It was not a glitch. It is a flawless mathematical strategy. While most traders panic about where Bitcoin is going next, this bot plays a superior game. It buys the Yes side and the No side simultaneously. It sounds impossible to make money this way but here is the logic. During the first 5 minutes the market is confused and spreads are wide. It buys Yes at 47 cents. It buys No at 48 cents. It sells them back seconds later for a tiny profit. It acts as a Market Maker. It harvests the chaos. It does not care about the direction yet. It is just collecting the dust from your hesitation. But then the real move happens. Around minute five the Bitcoin trend becomes obvious on the spot market. The bot instantly changes behavior. It stops hedging. It dumps the loser immediately. Then it aggressively loads the winner. It starts buying massive clips. 120 shares here or 500 shares there. It chases the price all the way up to 85 cents or 93 cents. By the end it holds 7,000 shares of the winning outcome. The stats are ridiculous. It climbed out of debt to generate $67K pure profit. 95% win rate. Normal traders try to guess. This bot waits for certainty and then extracts maximum value. You need to stop staring at the charts and start tracking the flow. Is this the new reality of trading or just an overly aggressive script?

Blaze

43,480 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Bots are thriving on Polymarket. A fully automated script brings in $80K a week. The bot makes $80k a week simply because it’s smarter and faster than the rest. → Wallet: A C++ bot made nearly half a million dollars on 15-minute BTC candles. It doesn’t guess the direction. I was about to scroll past Account88888. "Just another bot, there are hundreds of them," I thought. Usually, a "99% win rate" hides a scam or pure luck. But I looked deeper. And honestly, I’m shocked. This isn’t luck. It’s math. While the whole market furiously guesses whether Bitcoin will go UP or DOWN, this guy simply buys BOTH outcomes. In the exact same window. Sound crazy? Just wait until you see the numbers. Polymarket offers 15-minute bets. Outcome prices fluctuate with volatility. When chaos sets in, the market becomes inefficient. Picture this: an "UP" bet costs 48 cents. A "DOWN" bet costs 46 cents. Together, that’s 94 cents. But one of the options always pays out $1. Always. Bitcoin will either go up or down. There is no third option. What does the bot do? It buys both outcomes for 94 cents. Waits 15 minutes. Collects its guaranteed $1. Pockets 6 cents of pure, risk-free profit. It doesn’t care about the chart. It doesn’t care about the news. It is "farming" a market inefficiency. I scrolled through the history: over 10,000 trades. 99% are green. The rare red ones only happened when the spread was too tight to cover the fees. While everyone else on Polymarket is trying to be right, this bot has made it impossible to be wrong. The wallet used to be named "JaneStreetIndia," but changed its name to stay under the radar. Money loves silence, I guess. What do you think about this? Is it genius arbitrage or a broken system? It seems in 2026, the winner isn't the smartest one, but the one who calculates the best.

Blaze

95,900 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

I vibe-coded a bot for the 5M / 15M BTC markets on Polymarket. Releasing it for you for free. Open source (Python). I just earned $400 today on Polymarket with this tool myself It doesn’t trade It just prints a signal in the console: UP or DOWN 🔸 The signal appears a few seconds before the Polymarket market actually moves. The bot exploits a Chainlink oracle inefficiency. What matters is that it consistently gives you a 4-8 second lead over the actual quotes on Polymarket. In practice, you’re seeing a few seconds into the future. What you can do with it: 🔸 Possible strategies: 1/ Momentum sniper Bot gives a signal -> instant entry into the current 5-minute market in the direction of the signal (Yes/No). Works best during strong moves >0.3-0.5%. 2/ Last-second scalp before market expiration 3-12 seconds before the 5-minute candle closes, you already see where the BTC candle is going to close. -> Enter Polymarket at the very last moment. 3/ Hedging + arbitrage Strong signal against the current Yes/No price -> hedge your position or catch crowd squeezes. Especially juicy in the final seconds, when odds are still fat, but the outcome is almost decided. 🔸 This is pure price update inefficiency. Open the 5M or 15M BTC market yourself. Run the bot. Watch who moves first. Until this gets tightened up - it’s a clean inefficiency. And yes, if you ape your entire deposit into it, the market will punish you fast. 🔸 But as a tool - this is the closest thing to a "Polymarket money printer" setup I’ve seen recently. Python bot setup instructions on GitHub: DYOR. Print hard, print smart.

0xLanister

18,295 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

A programmer found a bug in the laws of probability. Now he collects $35,000 a day for exploiting it. How do you make money betting against yourself? Sounds like idiocy. Looks like $236,000 in pure profit. 2 months ago this wallet did not exist. Today it holds $236,000 in pure profit. He does not read news. Does not watch charts. Does not listen to analysts. He just sees the moment when math breaks. And takes the difference. I found this wallet buried in the 15-minute leaderboard. First thought: another HFT bot catching milliseconds. I was wrong. The exploit is public. So is the wallet: First thing that crashed my brain. This bot does not bet on direction. It does not care if the price falls or rises. It bets on BOTH outcomes. Simultaneously. How do you make money betting against yourself? I broke down the mechanics and felt like an idiot. Here is the glitch this script exploits: On Polymarket every market has two outcomes: YES and NO. In a perfect world their sum always equals $1.00. But we do not live in a perfect world. We live in a world of panic, FOMO, and people staring at charts at 3am. When volatility spikes, the crowd goes insane. YES price flies to 60 cents. NO drops to 35. Total cost of both outcomes: 95 cents. The bot sees this instantly. It buys YES. It buys NO. Same second. Investment: 95 cents.сGuaranteed payout: $1.00. Profit: 5 cents. Does not matter where the price goes. To zero or to the moon. The bot already won before anything happened. Now multiply this by hundreds of trades per day. 5 cents becomes $50. $50 becomes $500. $500 becomes $5,000. $35,000 every day. While the programmer sleeps. I analyzed the entry timings. The bot does not trade randomly. It hunts in the first 5-10 minutes after each market opens. Why? Because that is peak chaos. New candle. New contract. Fresh fear. Liquidity has not settled yet. The window of opportunity lasts seconds. For a human it is invisible noise. For code it is harvest season. Think about what this means. While 70% of Polymarket traders lose their deposits guessing direction, reading news, drawing support lines... This bot simply collects tax on their emotions. Every panic sell you make creates a pricing error. Every FOMO buy you make breaks the math. The bot is patient. The bot is precise. The bot has no nervous system. I thought winning in this market required insiders or $10k servers. This wallet proved me wrong. You do not need to know the future. You just need to know that YES + NO should equal $1. And when the crowd in panic makes the sum equal $0.95... That difference is your profit. The question is not whether these opportunities exist. The question is who takes them while you blink. Right now somewhere a new market just opened. Volatility is rising. Prices are diverging. This bot is already counting. You can keep guessing. Or you can get in line behind the one who already hacked the game. In one second he will press Buy. Twice. On both sides. And you?

Blaze

13,898 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

I got laid off 3 weeks ago. My landlord called yesterday asking about next month's rent. Severance ran out. No interviews lined up. Then I found a trader who built a Quant Bot with Claude and pulled $221,897 profit on Polymarket. Since Apr 12, the setup averages $3,467 per day running 41 trades per hour. 62,812 predictions. 58% win rate. 64 days straight. His first trade was Mar 6. The real shift came Apr 12 when the bot switched to pure arbitrage: It finds moments when YES + NO pricing drops below 100 cents and exploits the gap before the market corrects. No prediction. Just delayed pricing and execution speed. He deposited $82.8K total. Now sitting at +267.9% ROI. His biggest wins: $5,475 became $10,651 (+94.52%) $2,109 became $5,082 (+140.9%) $1,316 became $3,916 (+197.44%) The process is repeatable: Find delayed pricing, enter early, press the same edge until the gap disappears. Most traders try to forecast outcomes. This bot just finds mispricing and acts faster than human reaction time. I rebuilt the same arbitrage framework with Claude. One prompt. Connected to Polymarket API. Let it monitor pricing gaps 24/7. The bot scans every market continuously, calculates when YES + NO fall below parity, and fires trades in milliseconds. No emotions. No hesitation. Just math exploiting inefficiency. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word [Money] 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Build the arbitrage bot this weekend. Start with $500. Scale on evidence.

Himanshu Kumar

51,738 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

This GitHub script makes $500K a week. Someone found a legal API loophole worth $3.7M. According to his profile: I studied legendary swisstony wallet and I was blown away. The bot really started with some measly $5 and now his profit has hit the $3.7 million mark in just six months. Just picture him making $90K pure cash and everyone getting into a debate about the next prediction on the chat. There is no trading in the normal sense. This is systematic clearing with code. I went back into his working head and heres what the bot does with liquidity: First it works like a vacuum cleaner for'free'money. The bot searches for outcomes with a 99% improbability of occurrence and allocates significant sums to the 'NO' category at 99 cents. For him this is a guaranteed 1 and he does it hundreds of times. This isn't a casino this is an insurance company that takes your premiums but never pays claims. 2nd the bot catches misstake in the system itself. If A must cause B and the quotes did differ the script is immediately in the trade. And while you are still reading the headline on Sports the bot has already identified the mismatch in the order book and secured its gain. No way a human can keep up with it. However, the true excitement exists within the domains of sports and politics. The bot intentionally enters these markets. Why? Since that is where the biggest crowd of hamsters place bets for fun and the info about the matches always gets to the masses with the delay The script just sits in the middle and takes one cent of spread from each trade. Monthly, this equates to 22,000 such micro-bites, which accumulate into millions. Here's the bottom line. Right now there is the real bot war at Polymarket. The platform has already commenced applying charges on crypto markets as a measure to decelerate their pace. But in sports is still chaos and easy money.

Blaze

217,511 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

"Every team wants to win a championship, but not every team wants to do the things required for a championship. And here's the thing: it's easy to be an average team. It doesn't require a lot. It's less adversity to be average in the world. The consequences of being average aren't easy. We end up wearing them. There's strain and struggle that comes with that too. The standard is just lower to be an average team. To be a championship team, to be champion, to be a championship team member here . . . I'm not gonna lie to you . . . I'm going to tell you the truth. It is harder. It is. The question is: Is it worth it? Some people say, "Oh it's not harder work." Yes it is. It's harder work. You can pursue comfort or you can pursue excellence. If we pursue comfort, we gotta give up some excellence. But if we pursue excellence, then we're just going to face more adversity. Everyone who's ever accomplished something excellence has had to overcome it. We are here today for a reason. Two reasons actually. Reason #1 is let's make sure that we identify and realize the opportunities that are in front of us. Reason #2 is let's make sure that we are preparing for the adversity that those opportunities require. And just understand: every single time you lever up your opportunities and you identify, "Oh there's something more I can do, more I can achieve. I can get better. I can earn more. I can do this." It's going to be matched with the adversity that comes with it. I want to make sure we are prepared for both of those, so that we're not chasing big opportunities and then getting mad when things start getting harder along the way. Is that fair? Does that make sense?"

Brian Kight

125,728 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce