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川普:台湾是中国的一部分,中方怎么做取决于它们自己 这段视频分享了Donald Trump接受美媒采访时关于中国与台湾问题的部分言论。 中英文对照原话 记者: 英文: Have you created a precedent that you may come to regret later on? 中文: 你是否开创了一个将来可能会后悔的先例? Trump: 英文: No, because this is... this was a real threat. 中文: 不,因为这确实构成了一种切实的威胁。 英文: You didn't have people pouring into China, you didn't have drugs pouring into China. 中文: 你没有看到大批人员涌入中国,也没有大量毒品流入中国。 英文: [He] considers it to be a part of China. And uh, that's up to him what he's going to be doing. 中文: 考虑到[台湾]是中国的一部分。至于[他]打算采取何种行动,完全由[他]自己决定。

川普:台湾是中国的一部分,中方怎么做取决于它们自己 这段视频分享了Donald Trump接受美媒采访时关于中国与台湾问题的部分言论。 中英文对照原话 记者: 英文: Have you created a precedent that you may come to regret later on? 中文: 你是否开创了一个将来可能会后悔的先例? Trump: 英文: No, because this is... this was a real threat. 中文: 不,因为这确实构成了一种切实的威胁。 英文: You didn't have people pouring into China, you didn't have drugs pouring into China. 中文: 你没有看到大批人员涌入中国,也没有大量毒品流入中国。 英文: [He] considers it to be a part of China. And uh, that's up to him what he's going to be doing. 中文: 考虑到[台湾]是中国的一部分。至于[他]打算采取何种行动,完全由[他]自己决定。

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兔子的三机同框献礼中国空军节。 无人机协同666。。。🫰

兔子的三机同框献礼中国空军节。 无人机协同666。。。🫰

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笔者注:真是搞笑了,这几天看到蛙蛙和殖人自嗨,叫嚣着要打击中国,又是一个搞笑的话题。。。 伊朗炸的越狠,美国人对中国和俄罗斯的灭国实力就越是忌惮。 The harder Iran hits, the more Americans will be wary of China and Russia’s ability to destroy a nation... 伊朗对美国的反击绝对是一件足以改写世界军事历史进程的大事,今后注定是要写入各国军事教材,被反复拿出来讨论和学习了。 Iran's retaliation against the United States is absolutely a major event capable of reshaping the course of global military history... It is destined to be written into military textbooks around the world and repeatedly discussed, studied, and learned from... 原因就是伊朗的反击是人类有史以来最大规模的导弹战争,同时也是第一次对现代战略战术防空系统进行全面的实战压力测试。 The reason is that Iran's counterstrike represents the largest missile war in human history, and it is also the first comprehensive real-world stress test of modern strategic and tactical air-defense systems... 伊朗的诚实承诺反击行动以众多的导弹给全世界上了最真实的一课! With its "Operation True Promise 4" and a large number of missiles, Iran has given the whole world the most genuine lesson of all... 视频Credit to 公众号 @九州军志 @一个坏土豆 Video credit: @九州军志 @一个坏土豆

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213,216 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

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哈哈哈,再来看看昨天Bessent接受采访的片段,Bessent的表现也是蛮拘谨的。。。 李成刚是商务部副部长,谈判队伍里面的2号人物,仅次于何。 贝森特真的会称呼在谈判桌上对手的2号副部长,为“有点精神失常的低级贸易官员”吗?很明显,他要么是没有好好准备,没有看清谈判桌上的全貌;要么是被李成刚先生整得精神受创了(破了大防);要么就是故意的…… 有人分析认为,这是美方故意的一次“点名式”阻击。这实际上是一种国际谈判中的锁定(Lock-In)策略,一旦被强势点名,对方就会被舆论聚焦(Spot-on),就丧失了模糊空间,只能被迫进入对方准备好的议题框架。Tigris 会讲课教授是好老师 笔者举个例子:2013年至2016年美欧进行“跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定(TTIP)”谈判期间,美方多次提前泄露部分草案,通过媒体“点名”欧洲特定国家“不合作”。由于欧方内部协调周期长,舆论又被美方带节奏,最终被点名的国家受不了压力,被各个击破,最终被动在部分规则上接受了美方的方案。 不过,笔者也是觉得很好笑。因为大多数时候,所谓的“锁定策略”并不好用,尤其在以下情形下使用,往往会产生反噬效果: 🔹 谈判对方立场高度一致,内部协调高效(典型的例子就是中国的外交系统); 🔹 对方掌握议题主导权(例如中国在稀土、原材料等领域拥有主导权)。 🔹 舆论不在己方阵营,此时点名反而容易显得霸道,甚至带有霸权色彩; 此时的“点名”反而把自己推上了聚光灯下,暴露出对议题的掌控力下降,也让自己的回旋余地越来越小。 这正是目前Bessent同志所面临的困境:他亲手把自己和谈判团队推到了全球的聚光灯下。现在,任何形式的退让都会被政客群体和MAGA阵营猛烈抨击;而原本可以保持模糊,留有空间的共识部分,比如此前存在的“马德里共识”,也只能被彻底否认。 到此处,现在的美国谈判团队已经没有任何模糊地带了,必须进入清晰的,明确的,真正的对决,这反而落入了兔子预设的框架。Bessent这次挺悲剧的。 Let me get this straight...... Mr. Li Cheng Gang is the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce of PRC, the number two in the negotiation team, second only to He. Would Bessent really call the vice minister at the negotiation table a "a low level trade person who is slightly unhinged here"? Clearly, Bessent either: 🔹 Didn't prepare properly and failed to grasp the full picture at the negotiation table; 🔹 Was mentally damaged by Mr. Li Cheng Gang; 🔹 Or he did it on purpose… Some analysts believe this was a deliberate "naming strike" by the U.S. side, a classic "Lock-In" strategy in international negotiations. Once a party is aggressively named and singled out, it becomes the focus of public attention (spot-on), loses any room for ambiguity, and is forced to enter the agenda framework pre-set by the other side. Tigris 会讲课教授是好老师 Let me give an example: during the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations between the U.S. and the EU from 2013 to 2016, the U.S. repeatedly leaked portions of the draft in advance and used the media to "name" specific European countries as being "uncooperative"... Because the EU's internal coordination process was slow and public opinion was being steered by the U.S., the countries that were named eventually couldn’t withstand the pressure and were forced to accept parts of the American proposal. That said, I personally find it quite amusing, because in many cases, this so-called "Lock-In strategy" simply doesn't work, and when used under the wrong conditions, it often backfires: 🔹 When the counterpart's stance is highly unified and internal coordination is efficient (a prime example being China's diplomatic system); 🔹 When the counterpart actually holds the agenda-setting power (for instance, China's dominance in the rare earth and raw materials sectors); 🔹 When public opinion is not on your side, such "naming" easily comes across as bullying or even hegemonic. In such cases, "naming" ends up putting yourself under the spotlight instead, exposing your weakening grip on the agenda and shrinking your room for maneuver... And that's exactly the predicament Mr. Bessent is facing right now: he has put himself and his negotiation team under the global spotlight... Any concession at this point will be fiercely attacked by the U.S. politicians and MAGA group, and areas that were once deliberately kept ambiguous, such as the earlier Madrid Consensus, now have to be completely denied... At this point, the U.S. negotiation team has lost all room for ambiguity and must enter a clear, explicit, and real showdown... which ironically plays right into the framework pre-set by China. I would say, poor Bessent, quite a tragic position to be in now...

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154,799 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

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如果中国真的如此强大,为何仍有很多富裕阶层选择移民美国,或者海外? 笔者注:X,Quora,Reddit上经常会看到这类问题,每隔一段时间还会翻上来反复问:如果中国的经济真如外界所言般先进和强大,为何还有大批富裕的中国人持续向海外移民? 确实,笔者自己也经常分享中国国内的发展,科技进步,以及国内朋友的日常生活。。。但与此同时,移民统计却呈现出另一面:许多中国的富裕家庭,仍倾向于选择移民前往美国,加拿大、澳大利亚或欧洲。。。 原因是什么? 1,如视频。 2,视频没说的,一些尚未受到惩罚的贪腐官员或不法经营的商人,急需把富裕的资产转移到海外;西方国家,尤其是和中国没有引渡条款的某些国家对他们而言是最理想的去处。 笔者补充一下:Cyrus Janssen是一位内容创作者,活跃在多个平台,他长期分享围绕中国,中美关系与跨文化交流展开,希望通过分享自己在华十余年的亲身体验,为西方受众提供不同视角。。。作为一名美国人,Cyrus曾在中国生活约十年(约2007–2017),主要居于上海与香港。长期的本地生活经历使他能够使用流利普通话,并对中国社会,文化与商业生态有较深入理解。。。 其主要内容板块包括: 🔹 YouTube 频道 🔹 Podcast: Real Talk China 🔹 Podcast: The Honest Drink

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110,407 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

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这对刚刚退休不久的美国夫妇,控诉退休后他们的医疗保险保费从每月443美元,暴涨到2,224美元。短短几个月,支出翻了五倍,从“能负担”瞬间变成“完全付不起”。。。 这并非孤例。美国的医保体系向来复杂而昂贵,许多人在职时依靠雇主提供的团体保险,一旦退休,就必须自行承担全部保费。而只要收入稍微高出政府补贴线一点点,就会立刻失去补助资格,从“有补贴”变成“全自费”。一个细微的收入差距,就可能让保费暴涨数倍。 对普通退休家庭而言,这样的变化无异于一场经济灾难。医疗开支原本应该是老年生活最基本的保障,如今却成了压垮生活的最大负担。 对,不是病治不起,而是连保险都买不起了。 A recently retired American couple has spoken out, saying their monthly health insurance skyrocketed from $443 to $2,224 after retirement. In just a few months, their costs quintupled, turning what was once "affordable" into something "completely out of reach"... And they're not alone. The U.S. healthcare system is quite complex and expensive. Many people rely on employer-sponsored insurance while working, but once they retire, they have to pay the full premium out of pocket... Even worse, if their income exceeds the government subsidy threshold by just a small margin, they immediately lose eligibility, going from "subsidized" to "fully self-paid"... A tiny difference in income can make premiums skyrocket severalfold... For ordinary retirees, such a sudden jump is nothing short of an economic disaster... Healthcare costs, which should be a basic guarantee in later life, have instead become the heaviest burden to bear...

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真是从未见过如此厚颜无耻之人:印度官方泄露了伊朗德纳号的坐标,才使其遭美军潜艇击沉 Truly Never Seen Anyone so Shameless: India Leaked The Coordinates of Iran's Frigate Dena, Which Is What Led to It Being Sunk by A U.S. Submarine 印度是无耻到了极致! India's shamelessness has reached the extreme! 一艘刚参加完印度主办演习的伊朗军舰,返航途中就在印度洋被打沉。 现在网上又疯传“印度高层承认向以方共享坐标”的视频,虽然印方尝试否认,但这事本身已经足够恶心。 如果视频内容属实,那印度这次就是赤裸裸的,无耻的背刺。 你把人请来,演习完了,转头人家就在路上出事。 不管你有没有亲手递刀,这个局面都已经把印度所谓的“战略信誉”打得稀碎。 嘴上喊着战略自主,实际操作却越来越像: 台上装中立,台下递情报。 最让人心寒的不是一艘军舰被击沉, 而是国际规则,来访互信和基本体面, 在地缘政治算计面前,居然可以这么廉价。 印度这个国家不是没立场,而是永远只站在最势利的那一边。这种国家,最不值得信任。 An Iranian warship that had just finished taking part in an exercise hosted by India was sunk in the Indian Ocean on its way back... Now a video is spreading widely online claiming that senior Indian officials admitted they shared the ship's coordinates with Israel... Although India has tried to deny it, the whole affair is already disgusting enough as it is... If the content of that video is true, then what India did this time was a blatant, shameless betrayal... You invite them over, hold the exercise, and then, right after it ends, they run into disaster on the way home... Whether or not you personally handed over the knife, this situation has already shattered India's so-called "strategic credibility"... It talks about strategic autonomy, but in practice it increasingly looks like this: Pretending to be neutral on stage, while passing along intelligence behind the scenes... What is most chilling is not just that a warship was sunk, but that international rules, trust extended to visiting parties, and even the most basic decency... can apparently be made so cheap in the face of geopolitical calculation... It is not that India as a country has no position. It is that it always stands on the most opportunistic side. A country like that is the least deserving of trust...

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针对高事早苗的涉华错误言行到目前为止,中方释放三大罕见信号,一个郑重,两个奉示,三语宣示。 In Response to Sanae Takaichi's Erroneous Remarks Concerning China, Beijing has so Far Released Three Rare Signals: One Solemn Warning; Second Pointed Admonition; Declarative Statement in Three Language Credit to 乔鲁京(Qiao Lujing),国际观察主编(Editor-in-Chief of International Review) Authors note: This is a must read piece, please use "Translate" feature on X if you can't read Chinese... 中方反制的时间节点: 2025年11月14日凌晨2点56分,外交部官网发布了一条深夜消息:“外交部副部长孙卫东奉示召见日本驻华大使金杉宪治”。 2025年11月14日晨,人民日报钟声:绝不容忍高市早苗在台湾问题上的越线挑衅。 2025年11月14日早晨,外交部以中英日三种语言的方式在社交平台上继续警告。 2025年11月14日下午,驻日本大使吴江浩奉示约见日本外务事务次官船越健裕,就日本首相高市早苗涉华错误言行提出严正交涉。 2025年11月14日晚,外交部和中国驻日本使领馆就中国公民前往日本发布郑重提醒。 2025年11月15日下午,国航,南航、东航三家航司已发出通知,公布了涉及日本航线客票的特殊处置方案,对于出行日期在12月31日之前且符合相关条件的客票,可予以免费退改处理。 2025年11月15日下午,继三大航司后,四川航空、厦门航空、海南航空等多家航司发出通知,公布了涉及日本航线客票的特殊处置方案,对于出行日期在12月31日之前且符合相关条件的客票,可予以免费退改处理。

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18,712 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

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比尔盖兹回应:我后悔与他共处的每一刻,并为此道歉。那封邮件根本没寄出,内容全是假的。 比尔盖兹于当地时间2月4日在澳洲9News的访谈中表示:我后悔与他共处的每一刻,并为此道歉。那封邮件根本没寄出,内容全是假的。 在爱泼斯坦文件的邮件草稿中:爱泼斯坦指称比尔盖兹(Bill Gates)曾有婚外情,且曾协助盖兹取得药物以应对与俄罗斯女性发生性关系所带来的后果,并多次促成盖兹与已婚女性的地下情。 双语字幕如下: Bill Gates:我和他共处的每一分钟都让我深感后悔。你知道,我为自己的所作所为感到抱歉。(Every minute I spent with him I regret and I, you know, apologize that I did that.) 支持人:关于信任的问题,让我联想到了杰弗里·爱泼斯坦。我想知道你和他之间到底是什么关系?(Part of that issue of trust brings me to Jeffrey Epstein. I want to know what your relationship with him was.) Bill Gates:是的,我是在2011年认识杰弗里的。在随后的三年里,我和他一起吃过几次饭。(Yeah, I met Jeffrey in 2011. So over a period of three years, I had a number of dinners with him.) Bill Gates:当时的重点一直是,他认识很多超级富豪,他声称能说服他们为全球卫生事业捐款。(The focus was always, he knew a lot of very rich people, and he was saying he could get them to give money to global health.) Bill Gates:现在回想起来,那其实是条死胡同。我已经说过很多次了,但我还要再说一遍:花时间在他身上是愚蠢的。我是众多后悔认识他的人之一。(In retrospect, that was a dead end and I've said many times, but I'll say again, I was foolish to spend time with him. I was one of many people who regret ever knowing him.) 主持人:你肯定也看到了那些指控,包括过去24到48小时内曝出的一些内容。它们是真的吗?(You've no doubt seen the allegations, including some of them from the last 24 to 48 hours. Are they true?) Bill Gates:不,显然是杰弗里写了一封给自己的邮件,那封邮件从未发送过。邮件内容是虚假的。所以我不知道他当时是怎么想的,他是在试图以某种方式攻击我吗?(No, the... apparently Jeffrey wrote an email to himself. That email was never sent. The email is, you know, false. So I don't know what his thinking was there, you know, was he trying to attack me in some way?) Bill Gates:但你知道,这只是再次提醒了我:和他共处的每一分钟都让我后悔。我为自己的行为感到抱歉。(But, you know, it just reminds me, every minute I spent with him I regret and I, you know, apologize that I did that.) 主持人:问题在于,他发送的一些东西,以及那些文件中涉及其他人的某些信息,已被证实是真实的。你认为他为什么要针对你说这些?(The problem is some of the things that he has sent, and some of the information about other people that has come up in those files, has been true. Why would he do this and say this about you, do you think?) Bill Gates:额,事实确实是我只参加过晚宴。我从未去过那个岛,也从未见过任何女性。所以,披露的信息越多,情况就会越清晰:虽然花时间认识他是个错误,但我的行为与那些勾当完全无关。(Uh, you know, it's factually true that I was only at dinners. I never went to the island. I never met any women. And so, the more that comes out, the more clear it'll be, that although the time was a mistake, it had nothing to do with that kind of behavior.) 主持人:考虑到你刚才所说的,现在发生这些事是否让你感到沮丧?(Is it frustrating to you, given what you've said, that this is now happening?) Bill Gates:倒也谈不上。我的意思是,人们理应对成功人士设定极高的道德标准。所以,随着这些文件的公开,它们会被严密地…… (Not really. I mean, people should, you know, hold people who are successful to a very high bar. And so, you know, it's... as these documents come out, they're closely...)

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“One Nation, Indivisible”:从美国南北战争看中国统一台湾的历史进程 "One Nation, Indivisible": Understanding China's Path to Reunification with Taiwan through the Lens of the American Civil War Author's Note: This is a must-read. If you're not familiar with Chinese, just hit the "Translate" button on X... 笔者注:高老师在这里谈到的美国南北战争(American Civil War),就是美国内战。。。 美国建国后(1776年独立,1789年宪法生效),南北之间在社会结构,经济模式与价值观上逐渐出现严重分化。 🔹 北方(Union,联邦):以工业、商业和自由劳工为主,城市化程度高,主张建立强大的中央政府。 🔹 南方(Confederacy,邦联):以农业种植园经济为核心,尤其依赖棉花种植和奴隶劳动力,强调州权高于联邦权。 19世纪中叶,奴隶制成为美国政治的核心争议。 北方日益倾向废奴,认为奴隶制度违背“人人生而平等”的建国理念;南方则视奴隶制为经济命脉,认为废奴是对其生活方式与州主权的侵犯。 1860年,亚伯拉罕·林肯(Abraham Lincoln)当选总统。他主张阻止奴隶制向新领土扩张,但尚未正式就任,南方已有七个州宣布脱离联邦,成立美利坚邦联(Confederate States of America),首都设于弗吉尼亚州里士满。 1861年4月12日,邦联军炮击南卡罗来纳州萨姆特堡(Fort Sumter),南北战争由此正式爆发。随后,又有四个南方州加入邦联。 🔹 联邦(Union):由林肯领导,目标是维护国家统一,将脱离的邦联重新纳入联邦。 🔹 邦联(Confederacy):由Jefferson Davis任总统,目标是维护州权与奴隶制度。 1865年4月9日,邦联将领Robert E. Lee在Appomattox Court House向联邦将领Ulysses S. Grant投降,战争宣告结束。 这场战争持续四年,造成超过75万人死亡,这占当时美国人口的超过2%,这也成为美国历史上最血腥的战争。邦联彻底瓦解,11个脱离的州重新并入美国。 从国家层面看,南北战争确立了联邦政府对各州的最高权威,终结了“各州可以随意独立脱离”的政治幻想,也正如高老师所说,这一结果使美国真正成为了 “One Nation under God, Indivisible.” 对今天的中国而言,这段历史仍具深刻的现实启示:统一从来不是一句口号,而是国家现代化进程中必须完成的系统性工程。 对于中国来说,台湾正如当年的“邦联”之于美国。正如林肯坚守的信念一样,大陆终将把台湾带回祖国的怀抱,实现“One China, Indivisible”,不会有第二个选项。。。 For today's China, this historical parallel carries profound contemporary meaning: national reunification has never been a mere slogan, but a necessary and systemic step in the nation's modernization journey... For China, Taiwan stands as its own "Confederacy". Just as Lincoln once upheld the belief in "One Nation, under God, indivisible", the Chinese mainland will ultimately bring Taiwan back, there is no second option...

Compute King

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Charlie Kirk:美国最危险的人之一? Charlie Kirk: The Most Dangerous Man in America? Charlie Kirk的真正危险不在于他所讲述的每一句话,而在于他的叙事方式。他善于通过看似理性的辩论手法,把复杂的社会矛盾包装成简洁明了的对立逻辑:左派与右派,城市与乡村,精英与草根,移民与公民,中国和美国。这种二元对立的框架,往往掩盖了问题背后的多维复杂性,却能在年轻听众心中留下深刻烙印。 他把更多的信息植入年轻人的思维之中,同时在潜移默化中偷换概念,让听众以为自己在“独立思考”,实际上却在接受高度意识形态化的预设答案。 这是赤裸裸的“认知占领”,纯粹的“操控”。 在社交媒体与算法放大的环境下,Charlie Kirk的言论快速传播,并且往往被裁剪成为极具煽动性的短视频或语录,被众多的年轻人不断转发,吸收和强化。久而久之,他塑造的叙事不再是一种观点,而可能成为一代年轻人理解政治与社会的基本框架。 更令人警惕的是,Charlie Kirk的影响力并不止步于言论空间。他所代表的,是一种把美国深层分歧进一步武器化的倾向。种族,移民,教育,文化,国家竞争,这些原本复杂且需要理性对话的问题,被他简化为“敌我之争”,从而激化社会的不满与焦虑。在这种叙事下,暴力冲突不再显得不可想象,而是被逐渐合理化、正常化。 历史告诉我们,真正危险的人物往往不是那些手握绝对权力的统治者,而是那些能够重塑认知,激发群体情绪,并为社会冲突寻找正当性的叙事者。Charlie Kirk,正是这样一个潜在的危险源。他不一定会直接参与政治权力的争夺,但他播下的种子,可能在未来几年乃至几十年间,成长为更加激烈的社会对抗。 美国社会和所谓政治精英们或许应该思考:在一个被撕裂的时代,我们究竟需要的是更多像Charlie Kirk这样的煽动者,还是更多真正推动对话与理解的桥梁建设者?

Compute King

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