Jack Prescott
@JackPrescottX • 13,238 subscribers
Long term investor | Sharing research, news, & memes $PLTR $ABCL | Seeking exceptional companies
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The market is about to learn what Palantir CEO Alex Karp has been saying for years: “The large language model is essentially a commodity”. Swap Claude out with whatever model. It doesn’t matter. The value will come from the infrastructure (Palantir) that allows users to orchestrate the model. The effectiveness of Palantir’s Maven Smart System will remain unchanged; reinforcing the $PLTR thesis. Model agnostic.
Jack Prescott775,925 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
Palantir CEO, Alex Karp, goes off on CNBC and dismantles the NYT hit piece article: $PLTR
Jack Prescott1,319,606 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
This is my updated thesis on $ABCL. The first one I wrote was back in ‘24. My goal was to lay out the complete vision as I see it: The ingredients of a Zero to One biotech giant in the making. From the founder lineage and Stephen Quake’s influence, to the work with DARPA, business model evolution, tech stack, AI philosophy, pipeline, government ties, GMP facility, pricing scenarios, the Thiel connection, risks etc, tying in all the things I’ve learned over the years to form the complete picture. The road to becoming a giant will be long and nothing is guaranteed, as even CEO of AbCellera, Carl Hansen, acknowledges. But I’ve never been more optimistic about the future of this company, and this article will help you understand why. I hope you enjoy.
Jack Prescott31,694 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce
Why is Palantir so expensive? You don’t need to look at spreadsheets. Just consider this: The market knows NVIDIA sells the shovels for the AI goldrush. The market is realizing that AI isn’t being monetized at the commercial level because although it’s cool, it’s not unlocking any real insights yet. The market now anticipates that Palantir is selling the maps to find the gold…. Gold being AI-driven insights that actually solve difficult problems. Software that works. Since 2021, NVIDIA’s revenue has exploded from $16B to $96B. Palantir’s TTM revenue is $2.5B. The trajectory of Palantir has changed since AIP released in 2023, which is enabling the company to scale. If NVIDIA sells the shovels, and Palantir provides the maps, then the market believes Palantir will see the same explosion of growth within the commercial market, which the market believes has an almost unlimited TAM for Palantir. A lot of people missed out on NVIDIA. While Palantir’s market cap is expensive at $95B, it is nothing compared to NVIDIA’s $3.26T market cap in terms of size. The market doesn’t want to miss out on the next big thing. At this point, investors have thrown all standard methods of valuation out of the window… Those days were years ago. To me, at this point, buying the stock is betting on NVIDIA-like growth (No I’m not saying the company will shoot to a $3T market cap in 2 years — you get the point). If the company does not show this sort of revenue growth, the stock will be punished. This is the risk investors are willing to take. While I am very bullish on the company in the long run, I, like everyone else, have no clue what will actually happen in the short term. This is not a stock to play on the short term. This is why I continue to hold, regardless of how “expensive” the stock gets. I personally believe Palantir does in fact carry the potential to see explosive revenue growth to more than enough justify its current ratios. I’m not saying it will happen this quarter. But the potential is there. It’s a matter of when, in my opinion. I would never risk selling what I view as my golden ticket to wealth with the justification of “it’s too expensive, the price will come back down and I can buy even more then”. If the stock crashes, I can start buying more shares regardless — I don’t want to get greedy and try to time the market. I would never forgive myself if I sold and the stock ended up soaring so high that even after a crash, it would be far too expensive for me to get back in with my original position size (plus capital gains tax). I don’t care who agrees with me or who thinks I’m crazy for saying this — it’s a real risk to me and I’m not willing to take it. This is not me telling you to buy $PLTR. My average is $8.50. Only you can decide what is right, and your decision should be made on your own level of conviction from studying the company — nothing else. This is me telling you why it’s so expensive. Again, I believe that if the stock does not continue to crush earnings each quarter, even the slightest miss, the stock will be punished in the short term. For longs, it’s another opportunity to accumulate more. This is my opinion, of course. 5-10 years from now, we’ll see who was right. Chips & Ontology.
Jack Prescott258,436 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
I think of this Peter Thiel clip often. Thiel discusses how he sold $META at IPO; underestimating just how easy it would be for the company to scale from a $100B market cap to $1T. While this conversation is specifically about big tech, I believe it can apply to any company with strong network effects, various flywheels, etc. That’s not to say every great company will hit $1T, but I do believe it’s likely we underestimate just how much a truly great company can accomplish over the long run. Valuation matters over the long run, so I’m not saying just because a company hits $100B it will magically become easier to scale… but relatively speaking, assuming said market cap is an accurate reflection of the success a company is having, I think Thiel’s take makes a lot of sense. Flywheels are very powerful.. In my view, Palantir is building a flywheel as an operating system, where the more users they adopt, the more improved the platform will become and the more attractive it will be for devs, which in turn attracts more users and so on. With AbCellera, I believe the more data they collect, the better their platform becomes and the more partners they will attract, which results in even more microfluidic experiments, resulting in more data/improved accuracy, attracting more partnered molecules, and so on. Everyone is focused on obtaining as many shares as possible, and I get that… I want to own as many shares as possible for the companies I believe in as well. But I also believe folks probably have way more shares than they realize. The key is being able to hold for the LONG term… decades. Amara’s Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” I believe 500 shares of $PLTR and 1,000 of $ABCL can be life changing over the long run if the thesis plays out and you’re patient (emphasis on thesis playing out, which is never guaranteed)… Life changing meaning accumulating a disproportionate amount of wealth relative to the average person. Maybe it won’t get you a yacht and a mansion, but could at least make you not have to worry about money ever again with a modest lifestyle… something most people dream of. And this isn’t specific to just these companies; I use them as an example because they’re what I know. And to those who have thousands of shares… enjoy the show.
Jack Prescott146,902 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce
$PLTR this analyst gets it: - Palantir is the AI Operating System - Palantir provides the environment and context layer (ontology + security model) for enterprises to deploy AI models and agents - This is a structural growth opportunity - The ROI for enterprises to deploy AI and use Palantir’s service will become increasingly attractive - (Regarding living up to today’s PE) Revenue growth and margin is unique. “You’ve never seen that type of growth and margin previously for any other companies. Enterprise is a huge market. AI is really shifting from consumer to the enterprise world. Enterprise offers a larger TAM. This is early stage for enterprise to use AI. The TAM could be trillion $$ level…. The path towards that will never be easy, it will be uneven. If you have that long term view, you will still be long term bullish on the company.” - Enterprise opportunities across the world will totally change the business of Palantir in the coming decades I don’t think he’s bullish enough on government based on what we see coming from Gokarp and DV, but at least he acknowledges the importance of the government sector to the company.
Jack Prescott112,551 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce
All the Palantir DD you need in 3 minutes👇 Rusty crusty platitudes. This is real alpha. $PLTR
Jack Prescott79,370 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
March ‘25 | UATX | AbCellera CEO Carl Hansen discusses the stock falling from $70 to $2 and drops one of the most impactful statements I’ve come across: “What other people are telling you is valuable is not what you should pay attention to…. You really need to look inward and ask yourself ‘What are the the real examples, the pieces of data, the things that I can see and touch and feel that tell me I’m on the right track so that I have feedback’ because if you listen to others, not just on public markets but in your life, if you listen to others, you will be blown off course”.
Jack Prescott31,602 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce
Zero to One Hundred. What these past two years of $PLTR have been like:
Jack Prescott75,189 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce
“You didn’t read it”.. Burry’s favorite response to any criticism of his $PLTR article Okay, how about we address a direct paragraph from you about Palantir’s ontology: “What Palantir calls its ontology is essentially this data retrieval for use through a common platform. But what if, as the paper points out, LLMs can still confabulate around a piece of data, misinterpret it, ignore it, etc.? In that case, Palantir's ontology cannot overcome the core hallucination problem in the underlying LLMs AIP uses. Hallucinations and overconfidence are fatal to tasks such as legal reasoning, scientific reasoning, medical decision support, military targeting, and other truly mission critical tasks requiring 100% precision and confidence grounded in real data. The paper notes no current mitigation - including the RAG architecture central to AlP - can reliably solve this problem.” What if this. What if that. If my aunt had a dick, she’d be my uncle. We can do “what if” for eternity. How about we look at the impact? - You question the validity of Palantir’s software helping find Bin Laden. Okay, how about the confirmation here of Palantir’s software being used during the Venezuela operation? Thoughts? They could’ve swapped Claude for Grok. Doesn’t matter. They could not have swapped Palantir’s software for something else, though. The LLMs that you point out Palantir does not have, are a commodity. - How about this other example of the 18th Airborne Corps' artillery brigade reducing its targeting process from 724 minutes to 20 minutes with Palantir’s Maven Smart System? Is the ontology hallucinating there? - How about the Navy’s ShipOS, built on Palantir, decreasing schedule planning from 160 hours to 10 minutes? - What about the director of NATO’s Task Force Maven citing how critical the ontology here? “To capitalize on Al applications, an ontology and lineage for data is needed. Al applications don't understand context or meaning; they understand structure. A data ontology provides the machine With a common language and framework for defining concepts, their attributes and their relationships (for example, classifying a 'jet' as an 'air platform' with specific 'weapon systems'). Without this shared structure, an Al model trained on one system's terminology wouldn't be able to integrate data from another. MSS establishes this common schema across NATO systems, unlocking the possibility of interoperable Al applications. This interoperability and trust are paramount in a warfighting context.”: Which is more credible? Your Stanford paper, or a director at NATO who actually uses the software? You wrote 10,000 words, so it’s impossible to dissect the whole thing. If one tries to do so, you will just say they didn’t read it. So let’s take a look at this ontology paragraph specifically. Do you have any proof of the ontology failing? Or just this “what if” from a Stanford paper? There’s infinite examples of it being transformational.. that’s for sure.
Jack Prescott24,154 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce
