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Pharrell explained why writing down your fears is the only way to silence them:

Pharrell explained why writing down your fears is the only way to silence them:

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While traditional investors relied on news, intuition, and corporate earnings reports, Simons took a scientific approach: • He hired mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists instead of traders. • He collected data on stock prices going back to the 1800s. • He built mathematical models to predict short-term price movements.

While traditional investors relied on news, intuition, and corporate earnings reports, Simons took a scientific approach: • He hired mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists instead of traders. • He collected data on stock prices going back to the 1800s. • He built mathematical models to predict short-term price movements.

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Charlie Munger literally explained how "Inversion Thinking" helped him become a billionaire: 1. He solves every problem backwards. Munger calls it inversion, and he uses it constantly. Most people ask how do I succeed at this. He asks the opposite: what would guarantee failure here, and then he simply avoids that. He says it works like algebra. Some problems you cannot solve forwards, but invert them and the answer falls out easily. 2. As a young weather forecaster, he asked how he could kill pilots. Stationed in the Air Corps ferry command, drawing weather maps alone in a hangar at night, he didn't ask how to forecast well. He asked: how would I most easily kill these pilots? He worked it through in reverse and found only two answers. Send them into icing their plane couldn't handle, or send them somewhere they'd run out of fuel before any airport was clear. He became fanatical about avoiding exactly those two things. 3. He points out that inversion could have saved Kobe Bryant. The two ways he found to kill a pilot, icing and getting caught out with nowhere to land, are flight risks a disciplined person simply refuses to take. If someone around Kobe had thought that way, Munger says, he'd still be here. It was so stupid, in his words, to die that way. The whole point of inversion is that the fatal error is usually obvious once you go looking for it on purpose. 4. His grandfather taught him the same trick as a boy. When Munger went swimming, his grandfather told him to swim as long as he wanted, but stay near the shore. It sounds simple enough to laugh at, but it's inversion in one sentence: don't optimize for the best swim, eliminate the way you drown. Munger insists the man was genuinely wise. 5. The military gave him a second trick: bracketing. In ROTC he was taught to fire mortar shells one long, one short, then correct to land the next one on target. He says he never fired a real shell in his life, but he has used that bracketing method to size decisions ever since. When he needs to know how big or small to make something, he brackets it high and low and closes in. Kapow. 6. His best inversion turned $125,000 into $600,000. As a young lawyer he had a client whose ranch land the Edison Company wanted an easement through. The client's famous, pompous appraiser valued it at $125,000, using the standard two-dimensional method: comparable sales, price per acre, acreage. Munger, who wasn't even an appraiser, saw the flaw. The land was hilly. 7. He forced the problem into three dimensions and the answer changed completely. Hilly land gets developed by lopping off the tops of hills and filling the valleys. The transmission towers would freeze the grade and make that impossible, doing enormous damage the flat, two-dimensional appraisal never captured. The old appraiser refused to change a thing, so Munger told his client to fire the twit, hired one who could think in three dimensions, and got $600,000 out of honest engineers who also thought that way. 8. The more due diligence someone does, the weaker a thinker they usually are. This is his sharpest line. Munger says endless analysis is often just a way of soothing an inner insecurity, and it doesn't actually work. The genuinely capable thinkers understand a situation fast and act. The armies of young lawyers billing by the hour to comb through every purchase order are, more often than not, papering over the fact that they can't see the answer. 9. You don't need certainty. You need to be about 96% sure. Munger is blunt that waiting for 100% is a mistake, because in most cases 96% is all you're ever entitled to, and the rest is wasted motion. The skill is knowing when you already have enough to act, and having the nerve to move on it. 10. He and Buffett closed a multibillion-dollar oil deal in about two days. When Occidental needed money fast to buy Anadarko, Munger didn't fly anywhere or run endless analytics. He and Buffett talked by phone, and after decades together, he says, one grunt speaks a volume. It was obvious: the Permian Basin is America's best oil, layer after layer with nothing comparable, and they'd get an 8% preferred dividend from a reputable operator plus upside. A no-brainer, he says, as long as you don't insist on making it hard.

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Elon Musk reveals why he believes the cheapest place to put AI will be space within 36 months "The availability of energy is the issue. Everywhere outside of China, electrical output is more or less flat. The output of chips is growing exponentially, but the output of electricity is flat" "How are you going to turn the chips on? Magical power sources? Magical electricity fairies?" "Space is really a regulatory play. It's harder to build on land than it is in space. It's harder to scale on the ground than it is to scale in space" "It's always sunny in space. You don't have a day-night cycle, seasonality, clouds, or an atmosphere. The atmosphere alone results in about a 30% loss of energy" "Any given solar panel can do about five times more power in space than on the ground. You also avoid the cost of having batteries to carry you through the night" "My prediction is that it will be by far the cheapest place to put AI. It will be space in 36 months or less. Maybe 30 months" "The only place you can really scale is space. Once you start thinking in terms of what percentage of the Sun's power you are harnessing, you realize you have to go to space" "Solar cells are already farcically cheap. In China they're around 25-30 cents a watt. Now put them in space, and it's not five times cheaper, it's 10 times cheaper because you don't need any batteries" "The moment your cost of access to space becomes low, by far the cheapest and most scalable way to generate tokens is space. It's not even close" "Those who have lived in software land don't realize they're about to have a hard lesson in hardware. It's actually very difficult to build power plants"

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Elon Musk reveals the environmentalist viewpoint he says has become total madness "There are 8 billion people on Earth and it would be better if there were none. I'm like, 'hey buddy, you can start with yourself. See if you really want to make a difference'" "That's like a crazy viewpoint. That's like literally saying, let's genocide humanity. How can you say that with a straight face? That sounds like total madness" "In the limit of environmentalism, it becomes like an ingrown toenail. A toenail's fine, but not if it's warped and ingrown. It's just gone too far" "Humanity is not a blight on the face of the Earth" "Even with climate change, life on Earth will still continue. The calamities Earth has suffered where life continued, gigantic meteorite impacts, super volcanoes, continents drifting all over the place" "There've been times in Earth's past where it's been like a total snowball or absolutely sweltering hot. We had many extinction events, but life continued" "We don't see the dinosaurs now, but they had a good run for 100 plus million years" "Even if there's catastrophic climate change, life continues. It just may not be life as we know it. It may not be humans, it'll be something else" "What we're talking about with climate change is not a threat to all life on Earth, but really maybe a threat to humans, a dislocation if low-lying countries end up underwater" "Over time we need to move to a sustainable energy economy. We can't just keep taking billions of tons of carbon from deep underground and putting it in the atmosphere and expect nothing will happen forever" "But we also don't need to be alarmist about it and super negative and massively disrupt people's lifestyles" "People can continue to live a normal life. They shouldn't feel guilty about being human or having a stake. It's fine"

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Charlie Munger spent 50 years studying why intelligent people make catastrophically stupid decisions. It is the most useful thing I have ever watched: 1. Incentives are more powerful than anyone thinks. Munger says he has been in the top 5% of his age cohort his entire life in understanding the power of incentives and he has still underestimated it every single year. Federal Express could not get their night shift to work efficiently until someone realized they were paying by the hour. They switched to paying by the shift. The problem disappeared immediately. 2. People rationalise terrible behavior when their incentives point that way, and they do not even know they are doing it. A doctor in Nebraska was removing perfectly healthy gallbladders for years. When Munger asked an old colleague whether the doctor knew he was harming patients, the answer was no. he genuinely believed the gallbladder was the source of all medical evil and that removing it was an act of love. That is incentive-caused bias at its most extreme. 3. Psychological denial is real, and it is not just for weak people. A family friend's son flew off a carrier in the North Atlantic and never came back. His mother, a completely sane woman, simply never believed he was dead. Reality was too painful, so she distorted it until it was bearable. Munger says we all do this to some extent, and it causes terrible problems. 4. Consistency and commitment tendency are one of the most powerful forces in the human mind. Once you have stated a position publicly, you are psychologically locked into it. Max Planck said the really important new physics was never accepted by the old guard. A new guard came along that was less brain blocked by its previous conclusions. If this happened to the deans of physics, Munger says, imagine what it does to ordinary people. 5. The Chinese brainwashing system used on prisoners of war worked better than torture. They did not start with big demands. They maneuvered people into making tiny little commitments and declarations and slowly built from there. The same mechanism operates in every cult, every sales system, and every ideology that gets deeply embedded in people's heads. 6. Pavlovian association shapes buying behavior at a level most people never consciously process. Munger estimates three quarters of all advertising works on pure Pavlov. Coca-Cola does not want to be associated with funerals. They want to be associated with the Olympics, wonderful music, heroics. The association itself changes how people feel about the product at a subconscious level. Raising the price of a product can actually increase its market share because price and quality are associated in the human mind, and people use price as a signal of value. 7. Persian messenger syndrome is alive and running every major organization. The Persians killed the messenger who brought bad news. Bill Paley in his last 20 years, did not hear one thing he did not want to hear. everyone around him knew bringing bad news was dangerous. The result was that one of the most powerful men in media made terrible decisions for two decades because reality never reached him. 8. Social proof causes otherwise intelligent people to follow each other off cliffs. When one oil company bought a fertilizer company in the 1970s, practically every other major oil company rushed out and did the same. There was no rational reason for oil companies to own fertilizer companies. But if Exxon was doing it, it was good enough for Mobil. Every single acquisition was a disaster. 9. The efficient market theory persisted in academia for decades despite Berkshire Hathaway existing as a living contradiction. One economist kept adding sigmas to explain away the anomaly. two sigma, then three, then four, eventually six sigma. Munger's observation: It is better to add a sigma than change a theory just because the evidence comes in differently. That economist later went into money management himself and sank like a stone. 10. Contrast bias warps perception constantly and invisibly. Put your hand in hot water, then room temperature water. It feels cold. Put your hand in cold water, then room temperature water. It feels hot. same bucket. The human sensory apparatus has no absolute scale, only a contrast scale. Real estate agents exploit this deliberately. They show you two overpriced, awful houses first, then take you to a merely overpriced house, and it feels like a bargain. 11. The frog in slowly heating water is the business version of contrast bias. If something bad comes to you in small pieces, you are likely to miss it entirely. Munger says he has known many high-powered brilliant businessmen who were destroyed this way. not because they were stupid but because each incremental change was too small to trigger alarm. The contrast was never large enough to notice. 12. Authority bias is so powerful it can make trained professionals watch a plane crash. In flight simulator experiments, when the pilot, the authority figure, does something that any trained co-pilot knows will crash the plane, 25% of the time, the co-pilot sits there and lets it crash anyway. They have been trained to know better. The authority relationship overrides the training. 13. Deprivation super reaction syndrome explains why people go insane over small losses. Munger's neighbor had a 180 degree view of the harbor. the neighbor put in a pine tree about 3 feet high that turned it into a 179 and three-quarter degree view. They had a blood feud that went on for years. The New Coke disaster is the corporate version. Coca-Cola told customers they were changing a flavor and triggered a deprival super reaction so powerful that Pepsi was weeks away from releasing old Coke in a Pepsi bottle. smart engineers. brilliant lawyers. armies of psychologists. All missed it. 14. Envy and jealousy are far more powerful than greed and almost entirely absent from psychology textbooks. Munger says Warren Buffett has said half a dozen times that it is not greed that drives the world but envy. In a thousand-page psychology textbook, the index entry for envy and jealousy is blank. One of the most powerful forces in human behavior and academia essentially ignores it. 15. Gambling addiction is not explained by variable reinforcement alone. Skinner thought he had fully explained gambling by showing that variable reward schedules pound in behavior more powerfully than fixed ones. But the people who design modern slot machines know things Skinner did not. Lotteries where you pick your own number get far more play than lotteries where the number is assigned to you. People who commit to a number believe it has more validity because they chose it. Near misses on slot machines trigger deprival super reaction syndrome. It is four or five psychological tendencies working together, not one. 16. The most dangerous situations are when multiple psychological tendencies combine toward the same end at once. Munger calls this the lollapalooza effect. Tupperware parties use four or five tendencies simultaneously. Moonie conversion methods combine multiple tendencies and work extraordinarily well. alcoholics anonymous achieves a 50% no drinking rate when everything else fails because it also combines multiple tendencies toward a constructive end. The Milgram experiment is not just about obedience. it involves authority bias, consistency and commitment tendency, and contrast effects all working together. That combination turns human brains into mush. 17. Boards of directors are structurally designed to fail as corrective mechanisms. The top executive is the authority figure. He is doing something questionable. You look around, and nobody else is objecting, which is social proof that it is fine. He flies you around in the corporate jet and raises your director fees every year, which triggers reciprocation tendency. Munger's rule: boards only act when the behavior gets so bad it starts making them look foolish or threatens legal liability. That is the only forcing function that reliably works. 18. John Goodfriend of Salomon Brothers destroyed his career and reputation because he did not fire a trusted employee who had lied to the government. Every psychological tendency pointed toward keeping the man. He was a close colleague. His wife was known. He was part of a group that had made over a billion dollars for the firm. He said he had never done it before and would never do it again. Goodfriend looked into his eyes and believed him. The man did it again. The lesson: everyone who gets caught embezzling says they have never done it before and will never do it again. That is what they all say. 19. Darwin avoided confirmation bias by deliberately seeking out disconfirming evidence. Munger says Darwin was not especially smart by ordinary standards of human acuity. Yet he is buried in Westminster Abbey. Munger studied how Darwin worked and realized he had psychological tricks worth learning. Darwin always paid extra attention to evidence that contradicted his theories. Munger started doing the same and credits it as one of the most important intellectual habits of his life. 20. Why is the most important word in communication? Carl Braun designed oil refineries with spectacular skill, and you got fired in his company if you wrote a communication without explaining why. not just who, what, where, and when, but why. Braun knew that in a complex system where things can blow up, a communication system that always explains the reason behind an instruction works dramatically better than one that does not. Forstein, the general counsel of Salomon, told Goodfriend on multiple occasions that he had to report the employee's misconduct. He explained it was the right thing to do. He never explained what would happen to Goodfriend personally if he did not. he failed to use the most powerful tool of persuasion. Goodfriend ignored him. When Goodfriend went down, Forstein went with him.

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761,383 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce

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Jordan Peterson on how to easily overcome social anxiety: 1. Social anxiety is not shyness. When you walk into a social situation, your brain registers it as a dominance hierarchy that is judging you. A negative judgment means low status. Low status interferes with everything your biology cares about. You are not being irrational. You are being evaluated by something that feels like nature itself, and your nervous system knows it. 2. Telling an anxious person to stop thinking about themselves does not work. You cannot tell someone to stop thinking about something. They get caught in the loop. Stop thinking about a white elephant. white elephant. white elephant. The instruction makes it worse. The only way out is to give the brain something else to do. 3. The actual solution is to look at other people. not glance. Genuinely look. Watch their face. Track what they are thinking. The moment you focus outward, your automatic social mechanisms engage, and the awkwardness dissolves on its own. You cannot be socially calibrated and self-focused at the same time. Attention can only go in one direction. 4. When speaking to a group, never try to address the group. It does not exist as a thing you can talk to. Find one person, look at them directly, and talk to that person. They will reflect the entire room back to you because everyone is entrained to the same social signal. If you can talk to one person, you can talk to anyone. 5. The eye at the top of the pyramid, the thing the Egyptians worshipped as Horus, is attention itself. What you pay attention to determines everything. The most important thing to look at is whatever your instincts flag as slightly wrong or off. That is where the real information is. Your enemies are useful for the same reason. They will tell you things about yourself that nobody else will, and occasionally one of those things will be accurate.

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603,750 görüntüleme • 29 gün önce