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Joe Hansen

@joehansen • 22,644 subscribers

Tesla | SpaceX | Starlink | xAI | Grok | Terafab Thoughts & Analysis

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🚨 Tesla FSD faces a no-win scenario Tesla on FSD at 47 mph on a rural two-lane road • Dog steps into the path as oncoming traffic fills the opposite lane •No shoulder available and no time to stop The system’s decision • Held its lane • Protected the people in both vehicles • Dog was hit Why it matters • Classic real-world trolley problem • Safety rule: never trade an animal for a human collision • Humans often swerve and cause worse crashes Hard to watch. This is what maturing autonomous judgment looks like.

🚨 Tesla FSD faces a no-win scenario Tesla on FSD at 47 mph on a rural two-lane road • Dog steps into the path as oncoming traffic fills the opposite lane •No shoulder available and no time to stop The system’s decision • Held its lane • Protected the people in both vehicles • Dog was hit Why it matters • Classic real-world trolley problem • Safety rule: never trade an animal for a human collision • Humans often swerve and cause worse crashes Hard to watch. This is what maturing autonomous judgment looks like.

398,447 Aufrufe

Grok 4.7 is the one that actually matters. Grok 4.6 is 1.5 trillion parameters and already sits next to the top models on speed and cost. 4.7 jumps to 2.1 trillion. That is the first real scale step from xAI, not just better training on the same foundation. If 4.7 does that, Grok is not the cheap fast one anymore. It is the smartest one too.

Grok 4.7 is the one that actually matters. Grok 4.6 is 1.5 trillion parameters and already sits next to the top models on speed and cost. 4.7 jumps to 2.1 trillion. That is the first real scale step from xAI, not just better training on the same foundation. If 4.7 does that, Grok is not the cheap fast one anymore. It is the smartest one too.

122,655 Aufrufe

Elon said they flood Austin. Spotters have filmed Cybercab in about 26 cities. I do not buy that they flip all of those on at once. Tesla wants the first cars in a box they can watch. Thursday is Austin. Invite room, livestream, no wheel, no pedals. I will watch if those cars are still taking rides on Monday. That is control. The other 25 cities can wait.

Elon said they flood Austin. Spotters have filmed Cybercab in about 26 cities. I do not buy that they flip all of those on at once. Tesla wants the first cars in a box they can watch. Thursday is Austin. Invite room, livestream, no wheel, no pedals. I will watch if those cars are still taking rides on Monday. That is control. The other 25 cities can wait.

69,674 Aufrufe

4.6 stayed at 1.5 trillion. On Artificial Analysis it sits with Sol at 61. The API is $2 and $6, not Sol's $5 and $30. 4.7 jumps to 2.1 trillion. That is the first real scale step, plus a SpaceX engineering data pass on top. I called that jump before this ship window. The date is only interesting if it lands. Then Grok is not only cheap and fast. It is in the smartest tier too.

4.6 stayed at 1.5 trillion. On Artificial Analysis it sits with Sol at 61. The API is $2 and $6, not Sol's $5 and $30. 4.7 jumps to 2.1 trillion. That is the first real scale step, plus a SpaceX engineering data pass on top. I called that jump before this ship window. The date is only interesting if it lands. Then Grok is not only cheap and fast. It is in the smartest tier too.

48,838 Aufrufe

🚨 France put two FSD cars on its own roads after talking with Elon • Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot: months of technical work with Tesla, then a constructive exchange with Elon • Two FSD-equipped cars now running French roads so Paris can check the data itself • Tests due mid to late September. An EU technical vote can land as early as October 6 • Netherlands opened first. Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania already followed • Tesla logged 100 million km of FSD Supervised in those five countries. Collision rate there is about 4.1x lower than manual Teslas July’s line from Paris was that the safety trade-off was not good enough. September’s line is road testing. That is a real shift. Europe does not need another demo video. It needs a large country to sit in the car and then vote. France just started that process. The software has been driving European roads for months. Most of the map is still waiting for a yes.

🚨 France put two FSD cars on its own roads after talking with Elon • Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot: months of technical work with Tesla, then a constructive exchange with Elon • Two FSD-equipped cars now running French roads so Paris can check the data itself • Tests due mid to late September. An EU technical vote can land as early as October 6 • Netherlands opened first. Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania already followed • Tesla logged 100 million km of FSD Supervised in those five countries. Collision rate there is about 4.1x lower than manual Teslas July’s line from Paris was that the safety trade-off was not good enough. September’s line is road testing. That is a real shift. Europe does not need another demo video. It needs a large country to sit in the car and then vote. France just started that process. The software has been driving European roads for months. Most of the map is still waiting for a yes.

27,089 Aufrufe

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🚨 Elon Musk explained why Tesla cannot yet scale Cybercab deployments despite billions of FSD miles. • New vehicle chassis requires its own driving data • Temporary steering wheels and pedals used for validation • Software must be calibrated to Cybercab dynamics • Generalization across cities is progressing • Once validated, Cybercab numbers can ramp quickly Billions of miles on existing vehicles do not fully transfer to a purpose-built Robotaxi platform.

🚨 Elon Musk explained why Tesla cannot yet scale Cybercab deployments despite billions of FSD miles. • New vehicle chassis requires its own driving data • Temporary steering wheels and pedals used for validation • Software must be calibrated to Cybercab dynamics • Generalization across cities is progressing • Once validated, Cybercab numbers can ramp quickly Billions of miles on existing vehicles do not fully transfer to a purpose-built Robotaxi platform.

301,792 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Pure Vision Distance Measurement! The FSD testing in China 🇨🇳 is next level!

Pure Vision Distance Measurement! The FSD testing in China 🇨🇳 is next level!

1,650,696 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The Optimus numbers are hard to believe. Elon puts the market for humanoid robots at more than 10 billion units, bigger than the human population. At $20,000 each that is a $200 trillion market. “The optimist numbers, they’re really just so mind-blowing… the market for humanoid robots is in excess of 10 billion units… If they do sell for $20,000, that’s $200 trillion… That’s why I wonder what does money even mean at that point.” -- Elon Musk

The Optimus numbers are hard to believe. Elon puts the market for humanoid robots at more than 10 billion units, bigger than the human population. At $20,000 each that is a $200 trillion market. “The optimist numbers, they’re really just so mind-blowing… the market for humanoid robots is in excess of 10 billion units… If they do sell for $20,000, that’s $200 trillion… That’s why I wonder what does money even mean at that point.” -- Elon Musk

128,871 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Waymo just wrote a safety sermon without naming Tesla. I do not buy the idea that lidar plus a second checker is the only honest way to drive. That is their stack talking. Tesla is betting cameras and one network at fleet scale. 200 million miles is real. It is also miles on expensive purpose-built cars in mapped cities. Volume is the other test. That one has not started for them yet.

Waymo just wrote a safety sermon without naming Tesla. I do not buy the idea that lidar plus a second checker is the only honest way to drive. That is their stack talking. Tesla is betting cameras and one network at fleet scale. 200 million miles is real. It is also miles on expensive purpose-built cars in mapped cities. Volume is the other test. That one has not started for them yet.

57,434 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

🚨 Tesla Europe just dropped more FSD Supervised edge-case footage from across the continent. The new video shows the system handling situations most drivers rarely encounter: oncoming trucks in Latvia, large puddles at night in the UK, parallel parking to clear a truck in Lithuania, a bus cutting in on a snowy Swedish road, crossing bicycles and dense pedestrian zones in Germany, railroad crossings, road debris, and even hand signals from pedestrians and police officers. This is the second major Europe-focused FSD reel in a week. The first highlighted 2.2 million km of testing across 19 countries. Together they paint a clear picture: the system is being stress-tested on real European roads, not just American highways, and Tesla is deliberately making the harder cases public. The regulatory gap remains the main story. Safety data from the approved markets already shows strong results, yet most of the EU still treats wider rollout as a distant prospect. These videos keep raising the visibility of that disconnect.

🚨 Tesla Europe just dropped more FSD Supervised edge-case footage from across the continent. The new video shows the system handling situations most drivers rarely encounter: oncoming trucks in Latvia, large puddles at night in the UK, parallel parking to clear a truck in Lithuania, a bus cutting in on a snowy Swedish road, crossing bicycles and dense pedestrian zones in Germany, railroad crossings, road debris, and even hand signals from pedestrians and police officers. This is the second major Europe-focused FSD reel in a week. The first highlighted 2.2 million km of testing across 19 countries. Together they paint a clear picture: the system is being stress-tested on real European roads, not just American highways, and Tesla is deliberately making the harder cases public. The regulatory gap remains the main story. Safety data from the approved markets already shows strong results, yet most of the EU still treats wider rollout as a distant prospect. These videos keep raising the visibility of that disconnect.

64,827 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 Tesla Semi just went street-legal in Germany! 🇩🇪 Deliveries could start as soon as this year in : - Belgium 🇧🇪 - Netherlands 🇳🇱 - France 🇫🇷 - Spain 🇪🇸 The electric trucking era is officially here - Tesla Semi is about to take over the world 🌍⚡

🚨 Tesla Semi just went street-legal in Germany! 🇩🇪 Deliveries could start as soon as this year in : - Belgium 🇧🇪 - Netherlands 🇳🇱 - France 🇫🇷 - Spain 🇪🇸 The electric trucking era is officially here - Tesla Semi is about to take over the world 🌍⚡

174,199 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Thousands of jobs are coming to a town of roughly 100 people! 🚨 SpaceX is in the final stages of a deal for a major Starship spaceport in coastal Louisiana. • ~130,000 acres of marshland near Pecan Island, Vermilion Parish • 18-mile stretch of Gulf-accessible coast, sparsely populated • Expected to create thousands of jobs • Tied to a settlement of coastal lawsuits involving ExxonMobil land • Announcement expected this month from Gov. Jeff Landry The site sits midway between SpaceX’s Texas and Florida facilities and offers deep-water barge access.

Thousands of jobs are coming to a town of roughly 100 people! 🚨 SpaceX is in the final stages of a deal for a major Starship spaceport in coastal Louisiana. • ~130,000 acres of marshland near Pecan Island, Vermilion Parish • 18-mile stretch of Gulf-accessible coast, sparsely populated • Expected to create thousands of jobs • Tied to a settlement of coastal lawsuits involving ExxonMobil land • Announcement expected this month from Gov. Jeff Landry The site sits midway between SpaceX’s Texas and Florida facilities and offers deep-water barge access.

31,480 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Historic Vids Fascinating!

Historic Vids Fascinating!

259,010 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Ten million Optimus units a year is a hard number to process! 🚨 Tesla’s Optimus lead just confirmed a 10 million unit annual target. • Ashok Elluswamy corrected himself on X: “Correction, 10 million robots” • Refers to the second production line under construction at Giga Texas • First line (~1 million units/year) planned for Fremont on former Model S/X space • Texas facility expected to reach volume in 2027 • 10 million robots a year would exceed most countries’ annual car sales The scale matches the long-term figure Elon has cited since the 2025 shareholder meeting.

Ten million Optimus units a year is a hard number to process! 🚨 Tesla’s Optimus lead just confirmed a 10 million unit annual target. • Ashok Elluswamy corrected himself on X: “Correction, 10 million robots” • Refers to the second production line under construction at Giga Texas • First line (~1 million units/year) planned for Fremont on former Model S/X space • Texas facility expected to reach volume in 2027 • 10 million robots a year would exceed most countries’ annual car sales The scale matches the long-term figure Elon has cited since the 2025 shareholder meeting.

13,234 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Super Heavy + Starship is the largest and most powerful rocket system ever built. SpaceX has developed a fully reusable two-stage vehicle that significantly exceeds all previous rockets in height, thrust, and payload capacity. The design combines extreme scale with the goal of rapid reusability, something no other launch system has achieved at this level. This architecture is intended to support much higher launch cadence and entirely new classes of missions that were previously impractical. • Height: 121 meters when stacked, taller than any rocket ever flown • Thrust: Super Heavy produces over 16.5 million pounds of thrust at liftoff using 33 Raptor engines • Upper stage: Starship is powered by six Raptor engines and designed for orbital refuelling, reentry, and precise landing • Payload: Can deliver more than 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit in fully reusable configuration • Reusability: Both stages are built for multiple flights, with the booster targeted for tower catch recovery • Mission scope: Enables large satellite constellations, sustained lunar logistics, and cargo transport to Mars • Development impact: Forces the entire industry to rethink what is possible in terms of launch scale and cost This vehicle is the foundation for making humanity multiplanetary. Its success will determine how quickly large-scale space infrastructure can be built and how soon sustained operations beyond Earth become realistic.

Super Heavy + Starship is the largest and most powerful rocket system ever built. SpaceX has developed a fully reusable two-stage vehicle that significantly exceeds all previous rockets in height, thrust, and payload capacity. The design combines extreme scale with the goal of rapid reusability, something no other launch system has achieved at this level. This architecture is intended to support much higher launch cadence and entirely new classes of missions that were previously impractical. • Height: 121 meters when stacked, taller than any rocket ever flown • Thrust: Super Heavy produces over 16.5 million pounds of thrust at liftoff using 33 Raptor engines • Upper stage: Starship is powered by six Raptor engines and designed for orbital refuelling, reentry, and precise landing • Payload: Can deliver more than 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit in fully reusable configuration • Reusability: Both stages are built for multiple flights, with the booster targeted for tower catch recovery • Mission scope: Enables large satellite constellations, sustained lunar logistics, and cargo transport to Mars • Development impact: Forces the entire industry to rethink what is possible in terms of launch scale and cost This vehicle is the foundation for making humanity multiplanetary. Its success will determine how quickly large-scale space infrastructure can be built and how soon sustained operations beyond Earth become realistic.

12,001 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Where we're going we don't need roads! Elon Musk: "You think we won’t have flying cars? Wait for it."

Where we're going we don't need roads! Elon Musk: "You think we won’t have flying cars? Wait for it."

27,381 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

My father has dementia, I need an Optimus to sit and talk to him! Elon Musk: "We are seeing Grok be very helpful in things like customer service and the AI is infinitely patient, so you can yell at it, and it's still going to be very nice."

My father has dementia, I need an Optimus to sit and talk to him! Elon Musk: "We are seeing Grok be very helpful in things like customer service and the AI is infinitely patient, so you can yell at it, and it's still going to be very nice."

11,288 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

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