ludoonchart
@ludoonchart • 3,818 subscribers
Finance & AI Researcher | @zscdao
Videos
Scott Bessent spent money to attend a Hillary Clinton fundraiser before the 2016 election, walked out convinced she was going to lose - and later called it “the best research money I ever spent” this is him explaining how he approached politics the same way he approached macro investing. instead of following elite consensus, Bessent wanted to sit in the room, hear the argument himself and decide whether what insiders believed actually matched what was happening outside it Bessent says Trump’s 2016 victory became one of his biggest single trading game days - fitting a career he describes simply as making money by betting against elite consensus while still being willing to change his mind when the facts changed bookmark & watch the full breakdown below
ludoonchart239,212 views • 24 days ago
Ron Baron thinks saving your money is the stupidest thing you can do "regular guys keep their cash in a bank hoping to make 4% - but the government prints money so fast that your savings lose half their value every 10 years" "normal people trade every single day trying to make a quick buck - we find one absolute monopoly, put a billion dollars into it, and wait 15 years" "when everyone on wall street laughed at Spacex we didn't care - we gave them $700 million, completely ignored the news, and watched it become a $200 billion company" watch him explain why he never keeps his money in cash
ludoonchart896,396 views • 3 months ago
David Einhorn walked onto the 2026 Sohn stage and pitched five US stocks with roughly 52% to 167% upside - including a cable spin-off trading at a 19% free cash flow yield: “Versant is supercheap, and we find that very sexy” this is him explaining why he’s looking where almost nobody else wants to look - businesses the market has treated as permanently broken even though the underlying economics are already changing. Fluor nearly went bankrupt in 2020, but more than 80% of its backlog is now cost-plus and the company is buying back roughly 20% of its shares; Victoria’s Secret is still running at about half its historical margins, while Einhorn sees around 74% upside if they normalize five companies. five different transitions. the same bet underneath all of them - the market is pricing today’s problems as if they never end full speech below ↓
ludoonchart227,982 views • 1 month ago
David Einhorn started Greenlight with just $900,000 in 1996 - and nearly 30 years later he says the industry that taught him how to invest has basically been wiped out: “the value investing industry... is defeated, so to speak” this is him explaining why trillions moving into passive funds killed off entire research teams, why most trading today has “nothing to do with value,” and why that actually leaves more mispriced stocks for the few investors still willing to figure out what a business is worth Einhorn says even if Greenlight does a really good job, they’ll still be wrong roughly 30-35% of the time: “the best advice I’ve ever received in managing a portfolio is: as soon as you know that you’re wrong, change your mind” bookmark and watch the full interview below
ludoonchart212,397 views • 1 month ago
David Einhorn says the hedge fund industry is only about $2.5-3 trillion while mutual funds are more than 10x larger - and as trillions moved from active managers into passive funds, he thinks value investing got effectively wiped out: “the value investing industry... is defeated, so to speak” this is him explaining why cheap stocks can now stay cheap for years. the investors who used to buy them got redeemed, research teams disappeared, and index flows kept pushing more money toward the biggest and most expensive companies instead Einhorn says Greenlight had to adapt by going from paying 10–11x earnings for undervalued companies to looking for stocks at 4–5x earnings with 15–20% cash-flow yields and aggressive buybacks - because he can no longer assume another active manager will eventually show up and rerate the stock full interview below
ludoonchart171,751 views • 1 month ago
David Einhorn says today feels more like 2007 than the dot-com bubble - even as he just pitched five US stocks with roughly 52% to 167% upside: “I actually think it’s a little bit more like maybe like 2007.” this is him explaining where he’s still finding value in an expensive market - businesses stuck in a transition that investors are pricing as permanent failure. Fluor nearly went bankrupt in 2020, but now more than 80% of its backlog is cost-plus and Einhorn sees as much as 167% upside; Victoria’s Secret is running at roughly half its historical margins and could have 74% upside if they normalize the strangest one is Versant - the Comcast cable spin-off Einhorn calls “supercheap, and we find that very sexy.” it trades around a 19% free-cash-flow yield, while he argues the market is valuing the declining cable assets and missing what could remain after the transition bookmark and watch full interview below
ludoonchart170,201 views • 1 month ago
David Tepper on what to do when you have zero edge: "i don't have an opinion on the stock market. i just don't feel it being involved. i'm here on the bond market... i definitely have more of an opinion on this one." most guys feel physically sick if they are not in an active trade. if the market is chopping sideways in a muddy range, they will just force an entry anyway. they sit there clicking buttons and handing their account balance to the algos out of pure boredom Tepper runs a massive fund, and his biggest flex is simply admitting when he has no clue what the stock market is about to do instead of guessing, he takes his money and moves it to a completely different market where the setup is actually clean and the central banks are telling him exactly what they want you do not have to trade every single day. you do not have to trade the same ticker all year. if the chart looks like trash and you have no read on it, sitting in cash is a real position stop forcing plays just to feel something. only step in when the math makes sense bookmark and watch the 2016 archive here
ludoonchart420,069 views • 3 months ago
why Ron Baron makes billions while most people lose everything when asked how he turned a little money into $40 billion by just ignoring the news - he dropped the cold truth: "guys stare at screens all day trying to guess what happens next - we buy a company and literally don't look at the price for years" "when tesla crashed in 2019 everyone in finance panicked and sold - we didn't care at all, kept all our shares, and made $4 billion" "regular guys sell the second a stock drops a few bucks - we buy a good company and just leave it alone even when everyone is freaking out" Baron didn't make $40 billion by guessing what happens tomorrow. He made it by just sitting on his hands and doing absolutely nothing while everyone else panics bookmark and watch him explain how he actually plays the game
ludoonchart519,582 views • 3 months ago
Ken Griffin's ultimate rule for survival is brutally simple when asked how Citadel survived a near-death experience in 2008 to become a $60 billion empire - he dropped pure reality: "we lost 50% of our capital and our flagship fund was down $8 billion - that's when you realize your textbook risk models mean absolutely nothing" "when you are bleeding $500 million a week you don't survive by having conviction - you survive by aggressively protecting cash" "today we execute 20% of all US volume - we don't hold losers praying for a bounce, if the math breaks, we liquidate immediately" Griffin didn't build Citadel by predicting the future. He built it by completely removing human emotion and ego from the equation when the market collapses. bookmark and watch him break down the reality of risk
ludoonchart484,274 views • 3 months ago
Nassim Taleb built his fortune by realizing that to survive wall street, you must be perfectly comfortable looking like an absolute idiot speaking to microsoft's top engineers, he shared the exact math from 1987 that built his empire: "it started with the crash in 1987. i realized that if you position for a massive 20-sigma event, your portfolio is so mathematically convex that you could literally wait 400 years for it to happen again, and you would still be okay" "so i told myself i will only specialize in extreme events. you sit there and wait 3, 4, 5 years. everybody on the trading floor tells you you're an idiot. they tell you you're not profitable" "and then suddenly the crash happens. the crowd blows up, they completely disappear, and you take absolutely everything" watch his full 1-hour microsoft masterclass on the math of extreme risk
ludoonchart420,720 views • 3 months ago
Ron Baron believes that trading for a quick 20% gain is the fastest way to stay broke "most guys buy bonds or keep cash just to feel safe making 4% - we have never owned a single bond because paper currency is designed to lose its value every day" "the crowd buys a stock with a 3-month plan and panics at a 10% drop - our minimum holding period is 10 years, because that is how you turn a million into a billion" "regular traders obsess over next week's chart patterns - we only care if the founder has the drive to double the size of the business every 5 years" Baron didn't build a $40 billion fund by guessing the next trend. he built it by finding generational monopolies, backing great founders, and doing absolutely nothing for decades watch him break down his exact investment strategy
ludoonchart436,110 views • 3 months ago
Paul Singer lost 88% of $50,000 of his parents money in the 1974 bear market after buying speculative stocks on margin - an experience that shaped how he would run Elliott for decades: “my desire never to lose money again” this is him explaining why avoiding big losses matters more than just protecting the capital itself. Singer says once investors suffer serious drawdowns, their judgment starts to break down - while keeping both your capital and your head intact leaves you able to buy when everything gets cheap Singer says Elliott therefore never built its strategy around beating a benchmark. the goal was to stay risk-averse, avoid large permanent losses and preserve enough capital to take advantage of moments like the final weeks of 2008 when opportunities suddenly appeared everywhere bookmark & watch the full conversation then read the article
ludoonchart119,313 views • 1 month ago
this is an old interview with Alex Karp, but it proves exactly why he won: "if you want something to really work, something really complicated, you cannot hire people who are motivated by a paycheck. they have to live and breathe it." back in 2009, long before going public, early shares were valued at $0.35. they have since pulled more than a 70x return. Karp got there by doing the exact opposite of the silicon valley playbook most founders try to monetize on day one. they build a weak product, hire a massive sales team, and focus entirely on squeezing cash out of early clients Karp spent three years building with zero revenue. he refused to hire a single salesperson. instead of chasing a quick payout, his team focused entirely on solving an impossible technical problem if you chase the money first, you attract mercenaries. if you build around a massive idea and demand absolute obsession, you build an edge that no competitor can copy stop optimizing for short-term revenue. build something undeniable, and the market will eventually have no choice but to pay you bookmark and watch the archive interview here
ludoonchart308,695 views • 2 months ago
Ken Griffin just explained exactly why you keep losing money when asked how Citadel made the biggest profit in wall street history during the 2022 crash - he exposed the cold truth: "in 2022 the market crashed 20% and regular investors got wiped out - we didn't panic, we just ran the math and walked away with $16 billion in pure profit" "people sit at home drawing lines on charts hoping to guess the next big trend - we spend $1 billion a year on computers that execute 7 million trades a day" "we don't care if a company is good or bad - we execute 20% of all us volume every single day just scooping up the pennies that retail traders drop out of fear" Griffin didn't build a $60 billion empire by predicting the future. He built it by exploiting the fear and greed of regular people with cold, ruthless speed bookmark and watch him break down the reality of the game
ludoonchart382,262 views • 3 months ago
David Tepper explained what actually builds your career in the markets. and it's definitely not a perfect track record talking to students, he was straight up: your success just depends on how you bounce back from taking a hit "if i go through my career, it was a lot of disappointments. there's a lot of things that didn't go right. but that's not what's gonna define you. what's gonna define you is how you recover from those things and how you move on. you just never stop." another solid lesson from Tepper is about staying true to yourself. when he was at Goldman Sachs, the head of M&A told him to buy a stock that was on the firm's restricted list. Tepper just flat out refused to do the trade. because of that, the guy killed Tepper's chance of making partner later on. but he has zero regrets: if someone tells you to do something sketchy, just don't do it, even if it hurts your career the takeaway: the markets will inevitably punch you in the face. the key is not to get stuck, learn from it, and keep moving forward bookmark and watch the full talk here
ludoonchart326,258 views • 3 months ago
David Tepper on why he left Goldman Sachs: "i left Goldman Sachs. i was thinking about going to another wall street place. i didn't want to do that. that was crazy. after you work on wall street, it's a choice: would you rather work at Mcdonald's or on the sell side? i would choose mcdonald's over the sell side." the whole point of the sell side is pitching other people's ideas and living off commissions without risking your own money. for Tepper, that’s just noise and sales, not investing the real game is having skin in the game. if you aren't betting your own capital on your own calls, what’s the point? he’d rather flip burgers than go back to working for fees. bookmark and watch the full talk below
ludoonchart309,153 views • 3 months ago
Barry Sternlicht on how to actually catch massive runners: "pay attention to the big themes because that's what will help you earn ten times your money." most guys get chewed up by the daily noise. they stare at the 1 minute chart trying to scalp pennies, fight algos, and burn their brains out on random chop the big guys do not trade the noise. they trade the actual trend Sternlicht made his money by zooming out. instead of fighting for scraps, he looks for huge market shifts where the big money has to go over the next few years you do not get a 10x return by clicking buttons all day. you get it by finding a massive wave before the crowd wakes up, sizing up, and just sitting on your hands stop trying to outsmart the daily chop. find the big theme and just let it run bookmark and watch him break it down here
ludoonchart253,677 views • 3 months ago
David Tepper on why you never fight the money printer: "i don't love the us markets on a value standpoint, but i sure as heck won't be short... you can't be short anything." most guys love to play the hero. they see a chart that looks overbought, read some doom threads, and step right in front of a moving train just to prove they are smart they will sit there in a massive underwater short, paying heavy fees, while central banks literally print cash and hand it to buyers Tepper built his track record on knowing when to step aside. he knows that when governments push easy money into the system, you do not overthink the valuations when the liquidity taps turn on, you do not stand in the way. you either buy the cheapest assets on the board, or you just stay out stop trying to short a market that is floating on free cash. do not fight the fed bookmark and watch the archive here
ludoonchart236,681 views • 3 months ago
Chamath Palihapitiya asked Scott Bessent what went wrong with the Fed after years of QE - and Bessent pointed to roughly $7 trillion of debt added during the period while asset prices kept getting pushed higher: “I called the Fed the engine of inequality” this is him explaining how the Fed went from simply setting interest rates to controlling a massive balance sheet and regulating the financial system at the same time. Bessent says QE helped stabilize markets during COVID, but keeping it running for too long increasingly benefited asset owners while making the central bank far more involved in the economy Bessent says the Fed has effectively become a “three-headed beast” - rate policy, balance-sheet policy and regulation - creating a system so complex that even he says nobody fully understands how all three interact anymore bookmark & watch the full video below
ludoonchart65,632 views • 26 days ago
Scott Bessent helped George Soros make roughly $3.5 billion on the Abenomics trade from 2012 to 2015 - but says the real edge in macro investing is much simpler: “we study history, we observe the present, and try to imagine the future” this is him explaining why macro isn’t really about predicting every economic number. Bessent looks for regime changes, policy mistakes and situations where the market is pricing one outcome while the range of possible outcomes is much wider Bessent says he doesn’t even use a Bloomberg terminal and instead looks through around 270 charts every night - searching for anomalies, things that are changing, or something in the market that simply looks unsustainable full interview below
ludoonchart77,770 views • 1 month ago