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Patarames

@Pataramesh • 102,249 subscribers

Open source (-only) military technology analyst Iran/Russia/China/DPRK/Israel https://t.co/Q44fKzbdgm Support: Via YouTube-Channel membership

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Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

133,916 views

The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

The ongoing 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 fire exchange is kept limited by both sides for now Iran never committed its missile forces to a scale that would enable its 'Airpower Suppression' concept to full effect Instead it went for a minimalist but highly efficient and effective attrition operation mode. The 'Airpower Suppression' concept would target a weak link in Israel's airpower, such as the support aircraft section at Nevatim airbase (tankers, jammers, airborne-radar) An area target, several kilometers large, but not well hardened. With plenty of soft, mission-critical assets like maintenance hangars Then over the timespan of e.g. 10 days, every ~5 hours one Khorramshahr-4 with submunition payload, or alternatively 3 older Ghadr ballistic missiles would be launched against it. This would for both disrupt effective operations as well as devastate the base and render it inoperable within those 10 days. ➡️ Hence just 100 Khorramshahr-4 or 300 Ghadr missile would be sufficient to neutralize that critical link for Israel's airpower Now, since the U.S. would jump in to replace those support assets, it would not make a very big difference operationally at this time The graphic below shows the damage those 100 Khorramshahr would cause -8000 x 25kg Submunitions with 15m shrapnel damage distance assumed - High dispersion of up to 5,5km between two outlier submunitions due to early exo-atmospheric release (Statistical Normal distribution) ➡️ The density of the > mach 3 impacting submunitions would be high enough to devastate that airbase area for a long period ~1000 Khorramshahr hence would be enough to cause such havoc at all Israeli Airbases But Iran won't commit its missile forces to such a scale at this low escalation level

247,041 views

Simulated effects of a salvo of 2⃣0⃣ Khorramshahr-4 missiles equipped with 20 heavy 100kg Submunitions (on a key 🇮🇱 facility) Details: - 300m CEP for a tri-conic-RV, heavy-Submunition released outside the atmosphere - 100kg Submunition assumed have heavy destructive effect out to 40m. Mach 5-6 impact energy (see supposed impact video) - 4 salvo/aimpoints of 5 Khorramshahr = 20, each equipped with 20 heavy-type Submunitions (400 total) The facility in the simulation is not of soft type, since it has berms to protect against nearby hits and contain the effects of an accidental explosion The salvo-size of 20 missiles is not outlandish for such a high-priority target. CEP is neither for a relative high ballistic-coefficient tri-conic re-entry vehicle PLUS early-release dispersion effect (to defeat endo-atmospheric missile defenses) ➡️ I did this to illustrate the power of heavy throwers like the Khorramshahr even without precision enhancers like GPS or MaRV. A relative low-cost weapon that can defeat every defense, except for the upper-tier SM-3 and to a lower extend THAAD & Arrow-3 PS: It also serves as an eye-opener on the fact that Iran didn't opt to use such destructive weapons against civilian targets like downtown Tel Aviv

Simulated effects of a salvo of 2⃣0⃣ Khorramshahr-4 missiles equipped with 20 heavy 100kg Submunitions (on a key 🇮🇱 facility) Details: - 300m CEP for a tri-conic-RV, heavy-Submunition released outside the atmosphere - 100kg Submunition assumed have heavy destructive effect out to 40m. Mach 5-6 impact energy (see supposed impact video) - 4 salvo/aimpoints of 5 Khorramshahr = 20, each equipped with 20 heavy-type Submunitions (400 total) The facility in the simulation is not of soft type, since it has berms to protect against nearby hits and contain the effects of an accidental explosion The salvo-size of 20 missiles is not outlandish for such a high-priority target. CEP is neither for a relative high ballistic-coefficient tri-conic re-entry vehicle PLUS early-release dispersion effect (to defeat endo-atmospheric missile defenses) ➡️ I did this to illustrate the power of heavy throwers like the Khorramshahr even without precision enhancers like GPS or MaRV. A relative low-cost weapon that can defeat every defense, except for the upper-tier SM-3 and to a lower extend THAAD & Arrow-3 PS: It also serves as an eye-opener on the fact that Iran didn't opt to use such destructive weapons against civilian targets like downtown Tel Aviv

61,395 views

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

This is one of the 20-25kg exo-atmospheric 🇮🇷 submunitions, coming in at around mach-5 - 80 carried by Khorramshahr-2 - 28 carried by Ghadr-H Now think about a large airbase subjected to a single Khorramshahr-2. Quite some time needed to clean things up, aside damage

318,909 views

🇮🇷-🇺🇸 escalation cycle would not go far: - 11 missile did what you see below video - 200 missiles were launched in a single salvo against 🇮🇱 - 🇺🇸 Gulf Arab allies have all their infrastructure lying 300km from Iran ➡️ Go figure

🇮🇷-🇺🇸 escalation cycle would not go far: - 11 missile did what you see below video - 200 missiles were launched in a single salvo against 🇮🇱 - 🇺🇸 Gulf Arab allies have all their infrastructure lying 300km from Iran ➡️ Go figure

286,263 views

A SINGLE 🇮🇷 missile vs. 14 🇮🇱 missile interceptors ➡️ Who wins? Yes its a single missile, the slower object behind it, is its its 1st stage booster burning up Candidates for the missile used? ➡️ Fattah-1 ➡️ Kheybar-Shekan-2

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A SINGLE 🇮🇷 missile vs. 14 🇮🇱 missile interceptors ➡️ Who wins? Yes its a single missile, the slower object behind it, is its its 1st stage booster burning up Candidates for the missile used? ➡️ Fattah-1 ➡️ Kheybar-Shekan-2

186,392 views

🔴 Just wow 🇺🇸 RQ-180 or 🇮🇱 RA-01 Off the coast of Lebanon

🔴 Just wow 🇺🇸 RQ-180 or 🇮🇱 RA-01 Off the coast of Lebanon

195,298 views

2017 to 2020, Trump was unaware of Iran's military power ➡️ The Ain-Al-Assad strike changed it But not to a sufficiently high level To avoid 🇮🇷 oil exports being targeted: ➡️ Iran must demonstrate to 🇺🇸 that it has near-nuclear destructive power ➡️ By a massive strike on 🇮🇱

2017 to 2020, Trump was unaware of Iran's military power ➡️ The Ain-Al-Assad strike changed it But not to a sufficiently high level To avoid 🇮🇷 oil exports being targeted: ➡️ Iran must demonstrate to 🇺🇸 that it has near-nuclear destructive power ➡️ By a massive strike on 🇮🇱

134,873 views

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"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible
1:00
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"Iranian Missiles hit nothing important" "Even if they impact they are too inaccurate" ➡️ You probably heard those lines at some point Iran's missile strikes today showed how 3 out of 4 🇮🇷 Missiles penetrated Patriot PAC-3 defenses at a key 🇺🇸 base in Jordan 6 PAC-3 were launched for one successful interception ➡️ Effectively 6 x $4 million = $24 million were spend to neutralize one ~150k dollar Kheybar-Shekan-2(?) Result: An exchange-ratio of 160-times ➡️ This is not sustainable PAC-3 are not low-cost Israeli Tamir ($ 100k +) but a high-end, very difficult and time-intensive to produce interceptors. Literally money can't buy then in the number one wishes With these types of strikes, Iran creates a political leverage too. Because once the luxury capability of ballistic missile defense is unavailable at even a few critical sites ➡️ Fighting against Iran becomes virtually impossible

Patarames

176,774 views • 21 hours ago

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?
0:25
Pataramesh's profile picture

Non-zero chance that Iran stopped signaling missile attacks and actually seriously targeted USAF fighter-jet assets in Jordan Not just depleting $4 million dollar Patriot PAC-3 stocks with 20-times cheaper missiles but hitting painful targets ➡️ Escalating disproportionally ?

Patarames

133,916 views • 22 hours ago

Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is... (especially when timed on purpose at dawn)
0:56
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Only when you see it with your own eyes you start to appreciate how impressive a salvo of 10 Kheybar-Shekan Aero-Ballistic missiles is... (especially when timed on purpose at dawn)

Patarames

117,902 views • 1 day ago

Time to explain some realities: - Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time - Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted 1/4
0:20

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Time to explain some realities: - Israeli missile interceptors stocks & sensor performance will degrade over time - Iranian missile bases & launchers safety protocols will get more loose once the in-situ sabotage assets like OWA- & FPV-drones/ATGMs are found or depleted 1/4

Patarames

15,501,741 views • 1 year ago

Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2
0:44
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Using Oreshnik has devastating effects on the morale of those targeted by it You can ripple-fire Patriot PAC-3 against Iskander, but there are no means to defend against Oreshnik Iran used Khorramshahr-4 against 🇮🇱 which could not be defended against either But... 1/2

Patarames

172,254 views • 18 days ago

It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...
0:45
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It's an open secret that Iran will knock-out the 🇺🇸 4 AN/TPY-2 radars in 🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 if they fail to rein in Trump ➡️ Another open secret that without the high-resolution of these rare, key radars, missile-defense will become very problematic Watch video below to understand...

Patarames

542,907 views • 3 months ago

Safest launch conditions by Iranian mobile ballistic-missile launchers: - Nightime - Shortly exiting the tunnel, launching in front of the entrance & retreating back - Random appearance at ONE of the 100+ tunnels - Inside a deep valley ➡️ Wartime launch video below, shows launch of Emad missiles: - In a flat open area - No mountain ridges blocking view of stand-off ISR - Far from safe tunnels - Cluster of 10 launches close to each other - Early morning daylight ➡️ You have to be confident that the air-threat situation is pretty much under control to perform such relaxed launch operations
0:34
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Safest launch conditions by Iranian mobile ballistic-missile launchers: - Nightime - Shortly exiting the tunnel, launching in front of the entrance & retreating back - Random appearance at ONE of the 100+ tunnels - Inside a deep valley ➡️ Wartime launch video below, shows launch of Emad missiles: - In a flat open area - No mountain ridges blocking view of stand-off ISR - Far from safe tunnels - Cluster of 10 launches close to each other - Early morning daylight ➡️ You have to be confident that the air-threat situation is pretty much under control to perform such relaxed launch operations

Patarames

135,637 views • 1 month ago

No, there are no 🇮🇱 F-35 hunting down 🇮🇷 missile launchers No, 🇮🇷 missile strikes won't get less intensive No, 🇮🇱 missile defenses won't remain active like this for much longer ➡️ That is where the psychological effects on Israel will kick in dramatically (Bookmark this tweet)
0:46

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No, there are no 🇮🇱 F-35 hunting down 🇮🇷 missile launchers No, 🇮🇷 missile strikes won't get less intensive No, 🇮🇱 missile defenses won't remain active like this for much longer ➡️ That is where the psychological effects on Israel will kick in dramatically (Bookmark this tweet)

Patarames

1,001,879 views • 1 year ago

Missile-358 (Shahed-358) kill against another 🇮🇱 Hermes-450 It's a mystery to me why Hezbollah does not use the 🇮🇷 Missile-358 more frequently against such easy yet reactively high-value targets
0:59
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Missile-358 (Shahed-358) kill against another 🇮🇱 Hermes-450 It's a mystery to me why Hezbollah does not use the 🇮🇷 Missile-358 more frequently against such easy yet reactively high-value targets

Patarames

112,178 views • 1 month ago

Hezbollah's R-17 Scud-B with its 1000kg warhead being launched against Israel Quite amazing that they are so confident to use such a visible system ➡️ Given the small 🇱🇧 area Israel has to surveil in order to target such missile operations... Brave
1:21
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Hezbollah's R-17 Scud-B with its 1000kg warhead being launched against Israel Quite amazing that they are so confident to use such a visible system ➡️ Given the small 🇱🇧 area Israel has to surveil in order to target such missile operations... Brave

Patarames

130,345 views • 2 months ago

Air-Defenses gone, Navy gone, Air-force gone But Assad left something for Syria which 🇮🇱 can't destroy 🚀
2:18
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Air-Defenses gone, Navy gone, Air-force gone But Assad left something for Syria which 🇮🇱 can't destroy 🚀

Patarames

755,062 views • 1 year ago

🟡 Eyeopener: The general media-narrative of the 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 conflict is heavily biased ➡️ In my newest video, I paint a different picture of the situation ➡️ Clearing up Myths Make sure to watch it on YT to get a realistic picture of the current situation ⬇️
3:06
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🟡 Eyeopener: The general media-narrative of the 🇮🇷-🇮🇱 conflict is heavily biased ➡️ In my newest video, I paint a different picture of the situation ➡️ Clearing up Myths Make sure to watch it on YT to get a realistic picture of the current situation ⬇️

Patarames

396,177 views • 11 months ago

That time when Tom Cruise wanted to impersonate the prototype of a powerful ✡️ Hollywood producer ... But who he got closest to was 🇮🇷 M.B. Ghalibaf...
0:31
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That time when Tom Cruise wanted to impersonate the prototype of a powerful ✡️ Hollywood producer ... But who he got closest to was 🇮🇷 M.B. Ghalibaf...

Patarames

57,545 views • 1 month ago

Now, with the 🇮🇱 captives released... It basically just comes down to Iran's missile firepower to deter Israel & Trump from breaking their word By Iran directly or via Yemen
0:21
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Now, with the 🇮🇱 captives released... It basically just comes down to Iran's missile firepower to deter Israel & Trump from breaking their word By Iran directly or via Yemen

Patarames

210,576 views • 8 months ago

Iran has started to use the Sejil-2 special purpose ballistic missile ➡️ Why it's special? Watch my video in the second tweet below about it
0:54
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Iran has started to use the Sejil-2 special purpose ballistic missile ➡️ Why it's special? Watch my video in the second tweet below about it

Patarames

75,342 views • 2 months ago

No friends, this was not a kind gesture by Trump to lift sanctions on Iran's oil exports to China ➡️ It is ONE of the concessions Iran demanded for a 🇮🇱-saving casefire More will come soon and some people will wonder why...
1:09
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No friends, this was not a kind gesture by Trump to lift sanctions on Iran's oil exports to China ➡️ It is ONE of the concessions Iran demanded for a 🇮🇱-saving casefire More will come soon and some people will wonder why...

Patarames

252,697 views • 11 months ago

By now I'm pretty sure that Hezbollah's fiber-optic FPV drones trigger their PG-7-series HEAT shells on command, not just impact The HEAT-jet has plenty space to form & it becomes easier if no impact is necessary + Improved secondary fragmentation effect
1:26
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By now I'm pretty sure that Hezbollah's fiber-optic FPV drones trigger their PG-7-series HEAT shells on command, not just impact The HEAT-jet has plenty space to form & it becomes easier if no impact is necessary + Improved secondary fragmentation effect

Patarames

35,695 views • 1 month ago

A war take by a key representative of the 🇺🇸 Gen-Z Heavier than 99% of the takes you get on your X feed... Nicholas J. Fuentes remains the geo-strategics GOAT of his generation
2:56
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A war take by a key representative of the 🇺🇸 Gen-Z Heavier than 99% of the takes you get on your X feed... Nicholas J. Fuentes remains the geo-strategics GOAT of his generation

Patarames

68,705 views • 2 months ago

Trump just said: Iran is developing missiles that could reach 🇺🇸 ➡️ I would rather say Iran HAS developED missiles that can reach 🇺🇸 Watch my video on the Qaem SLV (ICBM) ⬇️
2:21
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Trump just said: Iran is developing missiles that could reach 🇺🇸 ➡️ I would rather say Iran HAS developED missiles that can reach 🇺🇸 Watch my video on the Qaem SLV (ICBM) ⬇️

Patarames

80,270 views • 3 months ago

Understanding what you see: Iranian ballistic-missiles targeting 🇮🇱 split in two upon re-entry into earth atmosphere ➡️ Video below shows how much less visible the actual 'warhead' is in that process Attention is primarily focused on the empty booster stage ➡️ Which is often falsely intercepted and declared as successful intercepted 🇮🇷 missile ... while the actual warhead flies on towards military targets outside urban areas
0:26
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Understanding what you see: Iranian ballistic-missiles targeting 🇮🇱 split in two upon re-entry into earth atmosphere ➡️ Video below shows how much less visible the actual 'warhead' is in that process Attention is primarily focused on the empty booster stage ➡️ Which is often falsely intercepted and declared as successful intercepted 🇮🇷 missile ... while the actual warhead flies on towards military targets outside urban areas

Patarames

45,038 views • 2 months ago