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Signal. Not noise. Forensic breakdowns of the world’s most influential podcasts. Substack - https://t.co/1GNcZMJIWU DM to remove clips

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Gavin Baker Gavin Baker: HBM DRAM will be 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex in 2027. Baker manages Atreides - his 2025 Micron call is now 14x. This is his next call. HBM requires stacking 12-16 DRAM dies in a single package. Only three companies can do it: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. No fourth supplier arrives in 2027. Hundreds of billions annually to three firms. Micron's new supply chain agreements lock in floor pricing above prior cycle gross margin peaks. If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, Baker says that discount is no longer earned. Baker's full case at The All-In Podcast: Source: All-In Podcast -

Gavin Baker Gavin Baker: HBM DRAM will be 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex in 2027. Baker manages Atreides - his 2025 Micron call is now 14x. This is his next call. HBM requires stacking 12-16 DRAM dies in a single package. Only three companies can do it: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. No fourth supplier arrives in 2027. Hundreds of billions annually to three firms. Micron's new supply chain agreements lock in floor pricing above prior cycle gross margin peaks. If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, Baker says that discount is no longer earned. Baker's full case at The All-In Podcast: Source: All-In Podcast -

497,229 views • 12 days ago

Levie now uses Salesforce 5x more than at any point before. The Box CEO Aaron Levie connected Salesforce's MCP server to Claude Code. Now he runs customer and market intelligence queries he would never have bothered pulling up by hand. The agent removes the friction. The underlying system gets queried more, not replaced. If you hold $CRM, the agentic era is an engagement tailwind, not a disruption risk - gated on whether the data platform handles the query load. Why incumbents gain from agents: Source: CXOTalk -

Levie now uses Salesforce 5x more than at any point before. The Box CEO Aaron Levie connected Salesforce's MCP server to Claude Code. Now he runs customer and market intelligence queries he would never have bothered pulling up by hand. The agent removes the friction. The underlying system gets queried more, not replaced. If you hold $CRM, the agentic era is an engagement tailwind, not a disruption risk - gated on whether the data platform handles the query load. Why incumbents gain from agents: Source: CXOTalk -

261,505 views • 19 days ago

Dylan Patel Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis: Anthropic's margin on an Opus 4.8 API token is north of 80%. It is net-income profitable excluding stock comp in Q2 2026, potentially profitable including it by Q3. Here is why that matters. At 80%-plus, even doubling compute costs leaves Anthropic above 50% gross margin. Every GPU it rents, at any above-market rate, is immediately accretive. It can outbid the whole market for scarce compute and still print money. Lower-margin labs cannot. The compute crunch is an Anthropic tailwind, via Sequoia Capital: Source: Sequoia Capital -

Dylan Patel Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis: Anthropic's margin on an Opus 4.8 API token is north of 80%. It is net-income profitable excluding stock comp in Q2 2026, potentially profitable including it by Q3. Here is why that matters. At 80%-plus, even doubling compute costs leaves Anthropic above 50% gross margin. Every GPU it rents, at any above-market rate, is immediately accretive. It can outbid the whole market for scarce compute and still print money. Lower-margin labs cannot. The compute crunch is an Anthropic tailwind, via Sequoia Capital: Source: Sequoia Capital -

98,948 views • 9 days ago

2,000 Cybercabs in one day. Not a city-by-city rollout. Robert Scoble Robert Scoble, who has tracked autonomous driving since the Stanford lab that became Waymo, says Tesla is staging Cybercabs in lots at Giga Texas to flood Austin in a single media event. A trickle is vulnerable to one bad incident. A mass launch resets public perception overnight. The tell is public: those staging lots show up in drone imagery. Watch for 2,000+ units before any soft cybercab launch. How the batch-launch call gets confirmed or killed, on Cern Basher: Source: Cern Basher -

2,000 Cybercabs in one day. Not a city-by-city rollout. Robert Scoble Robert Scoble, who has tracked autonomous driving since the Stanford lab that became Waymo, says Tesla is staging Cybercabs in lots at Giga Texas to flood Austin in a single media event. A trickle is vulnerable to one bad incident. A mass launch resets public perception overnight. The tell is public: those staging lots show up in drone imagery. Watch for 2,000+ units before any soft cybercab launch. How the batch-launch call gets confirmed or killed, on Cern Basher: Source: Cern Basher -

195,412 views • 20 days ago

S&P 500 earnings: +30% in 2 years (1998-2000). Then -40% in 12 months in a mild recession. That swing was not from the recession. It was from the telecom build-out collapsing. Companies realized they ordered 10,000 routers and needed 2,000. They pulled order books. Vendor revenues evaporated overnight. Depreciation costs kept running for years. Jim Chanos on iConnections: the AI CapEx boom has identical mechanics. Nvidia's earnings are CapEx boom output. S&P estimates are rising fast because infrastructure spending flows directly into a small number of vendors. If AI infrastructure spending slows - and order books get pulled - the earnings collapse is fast and severe regardless of how mild any recession is. The full dot-com analog and what it means for $NVDA positioning today: Source: iConnections -

S&P 500 earnings: +30% in 2 years (1998-2000). Then -40% in 12 months in a mild recession. That swing was not from the recession. It was from the telecom build-out collapsing. Companies realized they ordered 10,000 routers and needed 2,000. They pulled order books. Vendor revenues evaporated overnight. Depreciation costs kept running for years. Jim Chanos on iConnections: the AI CapEx boom has identical mechanics. Nvidia's earnings are CapEx boom output. S&P estimates are rising fast because infrastructure spending flows directly into a small number of vendors. If AI infrastructure spending slows - and order books get pulled - the earnings collapse is fast and severe regardless of how mild any recession is. The full dot-com analog and what it means for $NVDA positioning today: Source: iConnections -

144,401 views • 23 days ago

India's $200B IT services industry will be gone. Not "under pressure." Not "disrupted." Gone. Vinod Khosla - 40-year VC, $50M OpenAI backer in 2018 - says AI agents can do most of what TCS, Infosys, and Wipro charge for. The displacement is not a question of if. Only when. India's only path: pivot engineering talent to AI deployment for healthcare, education, and agriculture. Very few companies anywhere in the world know how to do this. The window is short. Full breakdown: Source: SparX by Mukesh Bansal -

India's $200B IT services industry will be gone. Not "under pressure." Not "disrupted." Gone. Vinod Khosla - 40-year VC, $50M OpenAI backer in 2018 - says AI agents can do most of what TCS, Infosys, and Wipro charge for. The displacement is not a question of if. Only when. India's only path: pivot engineering talent to AI deployment for healthcare, education, and agriculture. Very few companies anywhere in the world know how to do this. The window is short. Full breakdown: Source: SparX by Mukesh Bansal -

120,267 views • 25 days ago

$NVDA is the "safe short." Same framing preceded Amazon's and Google's breakouts. Dan Loeb, Third Point ($30B AUM), on The All-In Podcast: the stock's persistent discount isn't a fundamental ceiling. It's crowded short mechanics. Long/short pods must carry a short book. At $5 trillion, $NVDA is the obvious answer - large enough to absorb notional, with a long run that gives narrative cover. That structural pressure is what suppresses the stock. Loeb's call: undervalued on 2-3 year forward earnings. When fundamentals force a re-rate, the short unwind will be faster than a fundamental re-rate alone. Google was a "safe short." Amazon was a "safe short." Both broke out. Full NVIDIA analysis + homebuilder short: Source: All-In Podcast -

$NVDA is the "safe short." Same framing preceded Amazon's and Google's breakouts. Dan Loeb, Third Point ($30B AUM), on The All-In Podcast: the stock's persistent discount isn't a fundamental ceiling. It's crowded short mechanics. Long/short pods must carry a short book. At $5 trillion, $NVDA is the obvious answer - large enough to absorb notional, with a long run that gives narrative cover. That structural pressure is what suppresses the stock. Loeb's call: undervalued on 2-3 year forward earnings. When fundamentals force a re-rate, the short unwind will be faster than a fundamental re-rate alone. Google was a "safe short." Amazon was a "safe short." Both broke out. Full NVIDIA analysis + homebuilder short: Source: All-In Podcast -

119,339 views • 1 month ago

$Power is 5-7% of data center revenues. Some geothermal and nuclear stocks are trading at 50-70x earnings to supply it. Jim Chanos on iConnections: the AI halo has reached its furthest extension into alternative energy. The bull case is that data centers need power and there's a shortage. Chanos's counter: the US doesn't have a power shortage. It has a permitting bottleneck and turbine delivery delays. Both resolve in 2-3 years. When the permitting clears, the scarcity narrative collapses. And even if these companies win a power contract - power is 5-7% of a data center's revenues. Companies at 30-40x EBITDA for potentially supplying a fraction of a 5-7% cost line are priced for a constraint that is transient. Full breakdown of the alternative energy overhang: Source: iConnections -$

Power is 5-7% of data center revenues. Some geothermal and nuclear stocks are trading at 50-70x earnings to supply it. Jim Chanos on iConnections: the AI halo has reached its furthest extension into alternative energy. The bull case is that data centers need power and there's a shortage. Chanos's counter: the US doesn't have a power shortage. It has a permitting bottleneck and turbine delivery delays. Both resolve in 2-3 years. When the permitting clears, the scarcity narrative collapses. And even if these companies win a power contract - power is 5-7% of a data center's revenues. Companies at 30-40x EBITDA for potentially supplying a fraction of a 5-7% cost line are priced for a constraint that is transient. Full breakdown of the alternative energy overhang: Source: iConnections -

74,347 views • 21 days ago

$SNOW's biggest threat is not Amazon. It's Anthropic. Sridhar Ramaswamy told Nicolai Tangen Nicolai Tangen that AI coding agents scare him more than any cloud hyperscaler. The conventional CEO answer names AWS or Azure. Ramaswamy named Anthropic. His logic: software has always been protected by scarcity - engineers as concert pianists, he called them. Coding agents are industrializing that craft at a scale that breaks the moat around purpose-built platforms like Snowflake. If you model $SNOW against Redshift and Fabric, you are watching the wrong fight. The competitive battleground is now the coding agent interface layer. Full competitive threat map - which layer Anthropic is actually attacking and what Snowflake is doing about it: Source: In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen -

$SNOW's biggest threat is not Amazon. It's Anthropic. Sridhar Ramaswamy told Nicolai Tangen Nicolai Tangen that AI coding agents scare him more than any cloud hyperscaler. The conventional CEO answer names AWS or Azure. Ramaswamy named Anthropic. His logic: software has always been protected by scarcity - engineers as concert pianists, he called them. Coding agents are industrializing that craft at a scale that breaks the moat around purpose-built platforms like Snowflake. If you model $SNOW against Redshift and Fabric, you are watching the wrong fight. The competitive battleground is now the coding agent interface layer. Full competitive threat map - which layer Anthropic is actually attacking and what Snowflake is doing about it: Source: In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen -

61,446 views • 21 days ago

CoreWeave and Nebius are not tech companies. They are equipment leasing businesses. Jim Chanos on iConnections: strip the AI narrative and you have companies that buy GPUs from $NVDA and rent them to hyperscalers. The economics confirm it - mid-to-high single-digit pre-tax returns on capital where the data is available. His rule: a middleman in a supply chain should never trade at a higher multiple than the company that controls its supply. Nvidia sets GPU prices. CoreWeave takes them. TSMC sets chip supply. Neo clouds depend on it. The market has this relationship inverted. That is the compression trade. Full supply chain breakdown and what it means for neo cloud valuations: Source: iConnections -

CoreWeave and Nebius are not tech companies. They are equipment leasing businesses. Jim Chanos on iConnections: strip the AI narrative and you have companies that buy GPUs from $NVDA and rent them to hyperscalers. The economics confirm it - mid-to-high single-digit pre-tax returns on capital where the data is available. His rule: a middleman in a supply chain should never trade at a higher multiple than the company that controls its supply. Nvidia sets GPU prices. CoreWeave takes them. TSMC sets chip supply. Neo clouds depend on it. The market has this relationship inverted. That is the compression trade. Full supply chain breakdown and what it means for neo cloud valuations: Source: iConnections -

65,844 views • 24 days ago

$MRVL went from $90 to $300 in 3 months. Jordi Visser Jordi Visser says the real move hasn't started. The Vera Rubin architecture ramp - the optical networking wave that drives Marvell's core revenue - hasn't begun yet. Jensen Huang called Marvell a trillion-dollar company at Computex. NVIDIA put $2 billion in. Marvell is currently at $275 billion. There's also no blowout earnings quarter yet. Jordi has watched that print precede sustained moves in every other AI infrastructure name - Dell, others. Marvell hasn't hit it. You need two of three catalysts (Vera Rubin ramp, blowout earnings, Jensen's public call) to be wrong for the thesis to break. Phil Rosen Phil Rosen has the full position map on Full Signal: Source: Full Signal -

$MRVL went from $90 to $300 in 3 months. Jordi Visser Jordi Visser says the real move hasn't started. The Vera Rubin architecture ramp - the optical networking wave that drives Marvell's core revenue - hasn't begun yet. Jensen Huang called Marvell a trillion-dollar company at Computex. NVIDIA put $2 billion in. Marvell is currently at $275 billion. There's also no blowout earnings quarter yet. Jordi has watched that print precede sustained moves in every other AI infrastructure name - Dell, others. Marvell hasn't hit it. You need two of three catalysts (Vera Rubin ramp, blowout earnings, Jensen's public call) to be wrong for the thesis to break. Phil Rosen Phil Rosen has the full position map on Full Signal: Source: Full Signal -

56,796 views • 20 days ago

$Vinod Khosla fractured his wrist. Sent an X-ray to ChatGPT. Got a treatment plan. Forwarded it to a surgeon he had never met. The surgeon said it was exactly what he would have recommended. Khosla skipped the consultation entirely. The catch: general LLMs have a 20-30% triage error rate. His son's company layers domain-specific AI on GPT-5 and brings that to near-zero. That gap - base model vs. domain-layered AI - is the investable signal. The opportunity is not in OpenAI. It is in the companies building the health-specific layer on top. Full breakdown: Source: SparX by Mukesh Bansal -$

Vinod Khosla fractured his wrist. Sent an X-ray to ChatGPT. Got a treatment plan. Forwarded it to a surgeon he had never met. The surgeon said it was exactly what he would have recommended. Khosla skipped the consultation entirely. The catch: general LLMs have a 20-30% triage error rate. His son's company layers domain-specific AI on GPT-5 and brings that to near-zero. That gap - base model vs. domain-layered AI - is the investable signal. The opportunity is not in OpenAI. It is in the companies building the health-specific layer on top. Full breakdown: Source: SparX by Mukesh Bansal -

66,898 views • 25 days ago

Jordy Visser Jordi Visser: "Google's not a player in this anymore." Visser is an AI-native power user who tracks his own model usage as a leading indicator. Two months ago Claude was 35% of his usage, ChatGPT 25%, Google 20%. Now ChatGPT and Claude are 90% combined and Gemini is near zero. The same week, two senior DeepMind scientists left for Anthropic. He would never short Google. But multiple compression is already underway, the same pattern that hit Meta and Microsoft. A business does not have to fail to destroy shareholder value. Why the AI race narrowed to two: Source: Anthony Pompliano Podcast -

Jordy Visser Jordi Visser: "Google's not a player in this anymore." Visser is an AI-native power user who tracks his own model usage as a leading indicator. Two months ago Claude was 35% of his usage, ChatGPT 25%, Google 20%. Now ChatGPT and Claude are 90% combined and Gemini is near zero. The same week, two senior DeepMind scientists left for Anthropic. He would never short Google. But multiple compression is already underway, the same pattern that hit Meta and Microsoft. A business does not have to fail to destroy shareholder value. Why the AI race narrowed to two: Source: Anthony Pompliano Podcast -

31,218 views • 11 days ago

$MU at $1 trillion market cap. Meta at $1.3-1.4 trillion. Aravind Srinivas says Micron closes that gap in 6-12 months if HBM stays the binding constraint. On The Twenty Minute VC: every inference run needs HBM memory. That has pushed HBM costs up 5x in cost of goods. The entity that makes HBM gets the same structural advantage as the entity that makes the GPU - but without the GPU narrative already priced in. Srinivas's bottleneck framework: whatever is the hardest-to-replace constraint in the AI stack commands the price premium. Today that is HBM. CPUs are also getting scarce again because agent orchestration loops run on CPU, not GPU. The trade is the bottleneck, not the chip. Full infrastructure bottleneck breakdown: Source: 20VC with Harry Stebbings -

$MU at $1 trillion market cap. Meta at $1.3-1.4 trillion. Aravind Srinivas says Micron closes that gap in 6-12 months if HBM stays the binding constraint. On The Twenty Minute VC: every inference run needs HBM memory. That has pushed HBM costs up 5x in cost of goods. The entity that makes HBM gets the same structural advantage as the entity that makes the GPU - but without the GPU narrative already priced in. Srinivas's bottleneck framework: whatever is the hardest-to-replace constraint in the AI stack commands the price premium. Today that is HBM. CPUs are also getting scarce again because agent orchestration loops run on CPU, not GPU. The trade is the bottleneck, not the chip. Full infrastructure bottleneck breakdown: Source: 20VC with Harry Stebbings -

56,447 views • 23 days ago

xAI charges $50B per gigawatt. Neoclouds charge $17-25B. Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides Management told John Coogan and Jordi Hays on TBPN that Mars is not the SpaceX bull case. Altimeter's research shows xAI monetizes compute at $50B per gigawatt on the Google deal - 2-3x what any neocloud competitor charges. Baker stayed long through the IPO. His 12-month model doesn't track rocket launches. It tracks gigawatt additions. xAI also ordered roughly 20% of NVIDIA's Ruben production. Ruben is easier to deploy than Blackwell. Each new gigawatt at that pricing premium is a significant revenue event. Model gigawatts, not launch cadence. That's the trade. Full breakdown of Baker's near-term SpaceX case: Source: TBPN -

xAI charges $50B per gigawatt. Neoclouds charge $17-25B. Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides Management told John Coogan and Jordi Hays on TBPN that Mars is not the SpaceX bull case. Altimeter's research shows xAI monetizes compute at $50B per gigawatt on the Google deal - 2-3x what any neocloud competitor charges. Baker stayed long through the IPO. His 12-month model doesn't track rocket launches. It tracks gigawatt additions. xAI also ordered roughly 20% of NVIDIA's Ruben production. Ruben is easier to deploy than Blackwell. Each new gigawatt at that pricing premium is a significant revenue event. Model gigawatts, not launch cadence. That's the trade. Full breakdown of Baker's near-term SpaceX case: Source: TBPN -

54,609 views • 23 days ago

Anthony Scaramucci (Anthony Scaramucci): CZ called a super cycle, ETFs arrived, Trump came in - and Bitcoin is still down over 50% from the top. What broke? Tom Lee (Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com): nothing. A 50%-plus drawdown is the correction phase of the 4-year cycle, not a bear market. He dates the historical re-entry window to August-October 2026, with $50-60K as where long-term buyers reload. Prices near $58-59K are already in the zone.

Anthony Scaramucci (Anthony Scaramucci): CZ called a super cycle, ETFs arrived, Trump came in - and Bitcoin is still down over 50% from the top. What broke? Tom Lee (Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com): nothing. A 50%-plus drawdown is the correction phase of the 4-year cycle, not a bear market. He dates the historical re-entry window to August-October 2026, with $50-60K as where long-term buyers reload. Prices near $58-59K are already in the zone.

23,283 views • 9 days ago

Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI. Eli Lilly. Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) says a 150-year-old pharma company in Indianapolis has the best shot at becoming the world's largest company within five years. The case: ~1,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs in a private data center, a co-innovation lab with Jensen Huang, an AlphaFold partnership via Isomorphic Labs, Toon Lab in Silicon Valley, and 150 years of proprietary metabolic disease data no general model can replicate. That last moat is the one that matters. You cannot train your way to that dataset. Eli Lilly has it. The investor gap: the stock is filed under healthcare. The thesis is AI application. That category mismatch is where the repricing happens. The full breakdown on why $LLY is the AI trade the market hasn't priced: Source: Anthony Pompliano Podcast -

Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI. Eli Lilly. Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) says a 150-year-old pharma company in Indianapolis has the best shot at becoming the world's largest company within five years. The case: ~1,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs in a private data center, a co-innovation lab with Jensen Huang, an AlphaFold partnership via Isomorphic Labs, Toon Lab in Silicon Valley, and 150 years of proprietary metabolic disease data no general model can replicate. That last moat is the one that matters. You cannot train your way to that dataset. Eli Lilly has it. The investor gap: the stock is filed under healthcare. The thesis is AI application. That category mismatch is where the repricing happens. The full breakdown on why $LLY is the AI trade the market hasn't priced: Source: Anthony Pompliano Podcast -

63,599 views • 1 month ago

Why is OpenAI cutting codex pricing right now? Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides Management thinks every major player knows the answer - and is acting on it privately. Baker told John Coogan on TBPN: OpenAI's codex price cuts are not a margin decision. They're a strategic move to stay in the recursive self-improvement loop - the cycle where AI improves its own code. Companies that lose coding token share now may find themselves outside that loop when it matters most. Baker's read on $META: Zuckerberg has no articulated product anchor for "personal superintelligence." But the mechanism that forced his hand in 2022 - the stock - is likely to activate again. What the end game looks like and who survives it: Source: TBPN -

Why is OpenAI cutting codex pricing right now? Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides Management thinks every major player knows the answer - and is acting on it privately. Baker told John Coogan on TBPN: OpenAI's codex price cuts are not a margin decision. They're a strategic move to stay in the recursive self-improvement loop - the cycle where AI improves its own code. Companies that lose coding token share now may find themselves outside that loop when it matters most. Baker's read on $META: Zuckerberg has no articulated product anchor for "personal superintelligence." But the mechanism that forced his hand in 2022 - the stock - is likely to activate again. What the end game looks like and who survives it: Source: TBPN -

41,051 views • 22 days ago

One year ago, Gavin Baker was managing a large AI position. Today he is medium-small. This is not a change in thesis. Baker and Brad Gerstner both remain long SpaceX and AI infrastructure. The trimming is about price, not conviction. CPI at 4.2%. Iran war. Oil at $100. Semis already ran doubles and triples. Baker names the seasonal pattern: college students drive heavy AI consumption, and the last three summers saw token growth flatten. The positioning signal: the investors most likely to buy the next AI dip are currently lighter than last month. When they add back, the bid could move fast. What they are watching before sizing up: Source: BG2 Pod -

One year ago, Gavin Baker was managing a large AI position. Today he is medium-small. This is not a change in thesis. Baker and Brad Gerstner both remain long SpaceX and AI infrastructure. The trimming is about price, not conviction. CPI at 4.2%. Iran war. Oil at $100. Semis already ran doubles and triples. Baker names the seasonal pattern: college students drive heavy AI consumption, and the last three summers saw token growth flatten. The positioning signal: the investors most likely to buy the next AI dip are currently lighter than last month. When they add back, the bid could move fast. What they are watching before sizing up: Source: BG2 Pod -

47,082 views • 26 days ago

Micron 2024: commodity chip company, margin risk every cycle. Micron 2026: 50% of revenue in supply chain agreements with floor pricing above prior cycle peaks. Jason @jason broke the earnings on The All-In Podcast E278: $9B to $42B revenue in one year. But Gavin Baker Gavin Baker stayed on the structural shift. SCAs with four customers. Price floors AND ceilings. Three global HBM suppliers. You don't value a utility like a commodity. The question is when the market figures that out. $MU. Everything changed and the multiple has not. The full breakdown: Source: All-In Podcast -

Micron 2024: commodity chip company, margin risk every cycle. Micron 2026: 50% of revenue in supply chain agreements with floor pricing above prior cycle peaks. Jason @jason broke the earnings on The All-In Podcast E278: $9B to $42B revenue in one year. But Gavin Baker Gavin Baker stayed on the structural shift. SCAs with four customers. Price floors AND ceilings. Three global HBM suppliers. You don't value a utility like a commodity. The question is when the market figures that out. $MU. Everything changed and the multiple has not. The full breakdown: Source: All-In Podcast -

23,905 views • 12 days ago