Climate models are projecting a historic surge in Pacific... ocean temperatures! ​The newly updated CanSIPS model indicates the developing El Nino could reach a peak of +4.15°C! ​Water temperatures this warm would place us well into Super El Niño territory. ​An oceanic anomaly of this magnitude significantly redirects the jet stream across North America. ​Expect major ripple effects on upcoming fall and winter weather patterns across the country!show more

Genesis of a Super El Niño! Why do we... expect this El Niño to be one of the strongest on record? - A main reason: Huge subsurface heat - exceeding most anything we’ve observed in spring - motoring eastward from the deep Western Tropical Pacific Ocean to the East Pacific and emerging at the surface. This is rapidly warming the El Niño region. This is how El Niño forms - it’s not new, it’s just supercharged. This matches most computer model forecasts for a historic El Niño pattern, throwing Earth’s climate patterns off-kilter. Expect robust effects of El Niño to begin this summer and maximize this fall and winter. The aim of the visual is to help people orient to subsurface views, tough to do without a frame of reference. Credit to Alex Boreham for the animating map inlay. #elnino #science #stem #climateshow more

Hurricanes and wildfire: #hawaii #maui #wildfire #LahainaFire The winds... brought the power poles and transformers down, that sparked fires, communications went down, then 80MPH gusts fanned the flames across the landscape. A perfect storm… but why?! If you look at the National Interagency Fire Center’s Predictive Services, which we have been covering, they knew Hawaii would be ready for significant fire growth as far back at Spring. “El Niño will be the driving factor.” There was a La Niña/El Niño switch this spring… El Niño has developed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and rapid warming continues in much of the ENSO region, especially in the central Pacific with continued anomalous warmth off the coast of South America. Above normal sea surface temperatures are observed in all ENSO regions. Most forecast guidance depicts continued warming through summer, with El Niño conditions forecast to continue into winter. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a greater than 95% chance of El Niño conditions continuing into winter, with a 56% chance of a strong El Niño developing this fall. Other teleconnection patterns, such as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Pacific-North American Pattern may influence weather and climate during the outlook period, but El Niño will be the main driver…show more

Watch as the East Pacific Morphs into a Monster... El Niño - the strongest ever observed! This visual is different - it shows how surface and subsurface temperatures have heated dramatically since last fall - relative to October’s ocean state. The heat travels there under the surface from an overheated West Pacific Warm Pool. It’s a testament to all the excess heat being stored in the oceans now-a-days coming back to haunt us as it’s released back into the active climate system, increasing extreme weather and climate patterns like heat, floods, droughts, and fires. This is real Data visualization not AI slop. #ElNinoshow more

☀️🌡️ Another heatwave is expected in Europe. Temperatures may... exceed 40 °C as the summer solstice approaches Across many parts of western, southwestern, central, and northern Europe, temperatures are expected to rise well above the long-term average in the coming days. Unusually warm weather is already affecting the southwest of the continent. In Galicia, Spain, the Coruña Airport weather station recorded a high of 37.7 °C over the weekend, marking the station's highest temperature ever. In the second half of the week, exceptional heat will spread across much of Europe, as very warm air from the south gradually moves farther north along the western side of a high-pressure system. The heatwave is likely to be most pronounced in Spain and France, where temperatures could climb above 40 °C over the weekend, with local anomalies exceeding the long-term average by up to 15 °C. It is still unclear how long the hot weather will last, but some models suggest it could continue into next week. The upcoming heatwave could bring higher peak temperatures than the late-May event, partly because it comes around the summer solstice, when days are longest. ⚠️ Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and official warnings.show more

🌊 El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to... strengthen According to NOAA/CPC, sea-surface temperatures off the coast of Peru and around the Galápagos Islands are more than 3°C above the long-term average. According to the WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and develop into a strong event during August–October 2026. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast. During this phase, the western tropical Indian Ocean is warmer than average, while the eastern part is cooler than average. The WMO warns that a strengthening El Niño increases the likelihood of heatwaves, drought, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events, with impacts varying by region. 🌡️ Above-normal temperatures: expected across most inhabited land areas of the world. 💧 Wetter-than-normal conditions: western North America, central South America, southern Europe, and North Africa. ☀️ Drier-than-normal conditions: Central America, northern South America, northern Europe, parts of central Africa, India, and southern and eastern Australia.show more

Monster subsurface heat bubble and associated “downwelling Kelvin wave”... is traversing the deep Pacific, transporting anomalously warm water from the West Pacific Warm Pool towards the East Equatorial Pacific, and emerging toward to surface. This mechanism should provide the boost to jump start our El Niño which is defined by surface warming in the eastern half of the deep tropical Pacific. All signs are pointing to a top tier El Niño episode this summer/ fall/ winter - emitting pent up ocean heat - throwing Worldwide weather patterns into overdrive! In ENSO terms, a downwelling Kelvin wave often happens after westerly wind bursts in the western or central Pacific. The wave carries warm water eastward below the surface, deepens the thermocline in the east, reduces cold-water upwelling (ie. near the Galapagos), and can help favor El Niño development. Thanks to CyclonicWx for the great map visual. #elninoshow more

🌎 NOAA has officially declared the onset of El... Niño El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, during which surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than usual. As the distribution of warm water in the Pacific shifts, atmospheric circulation also changes, including the position of the jet stream and storm tracks. This can influence temperatures and rainfall thousands of kilometres away. Current seasonal forecasts suggest that El Niño will continue to strengthen through the rest of the year. According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance that sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific will exceed 2 °C by the end of the year. This episode could therefore become very strong and rank among the strongest events on record. Typical impacts of El Niño: • globally: an increase in the planet’s average temperature • more rainfall: western and southern South America, parts of East Africa, and the southern United States • drier conditions: northern and eastern Australia, Indonesia, parts of Southeast Asia, southern Africa, and parts of Central America • South Asia: the southwest monsoon is often weaker • tropical cyclones: less favourable conditions in the Atlantic, a more active eastern and central Pacific, and typhoon formation in the western North Pacific often shifting farther eastshow more

El Niño is born! Destined to be the biggest... in 150 years +?? NOAA declares: El Niño Advisory This morning conditions in the Eastern Pacific met the criteria for El Niño. This means Sea Surface Temps reached a certain level above normal, and the ocean and atmosphere “coupled” meaning they are now working in tandem to produce impacts. This event is widely advertised by models to be potentially the strongest on record. El Niño takes very hot water stored in the deep tropical west Pacific, pushing it east and up to the surface, lofting that heat into the atmosphere, which supercharges weather events and throws the climate off-kilter. This typical means more intense heatwaves & floods, but also it restrains the Atlantic hurricane season. So its impacts are both good and bad. One thing seems virtually certain: the heat released into the atmosphere will make for some unprecedented events through 2027, and on top of longterm warming, the hottest global temperatures in many tens of 1000s of years. #ElNino #florida #storm #heatwave #flood #droughtshow more

For several weeks now, a significantly colder-than-average air mass... has been present over Antarctica. 🧐🥶 In the coming days, temperatures there are expected to remain more than 20 °C / 40 °F below the long-term average (see the video). This mass of Antarctic air is concentrated mainly over the continent, where it has persisted for an extended period. In recent days, some of this cold air has also spread into South America, bringing below-average winter temperatures there as well:show more

🚨 SOMETHING MASSIVE IS BREWING BENEATH THE PACIFIC AND... IT COULD TRIGGER A MONSTER EL NIÑO. New 3D ARMOR data reveals a giant subsurface heat reservoir in the Pacific with temperature anomalies reaching +6°C below the surface far deeper and stronger than normal. This is not surface warming. This is the Pacific’s internal heat engine loading up with enormous energy. If powerful Westerly Wind Bursts push this heat upward, the surface response could explode into +3°C to +4°C territory creating a hybrid Super El Niño unlike anything we’ve seen in decades. Why this matters: • A monster El Niño would bring extreme heat, crop failures, chaotic rainfall, floods, droughts, and global weather disruption • The heat is already there — it just needs the right trigger to rise • This is atmosphere-ocean physics operating at full power, not “nature taking revenge” • Monitoring shows the system is primed and ready The deeper implication is alarming: We may be watching the early stages of one of the most powerful El Niño events in modern history forming right now beneath the waves. If this heat vents upward… the consequences could be felt worldwide for years. What do you think are we heading into dangerous new climate territory, or will the system stay contained? Follow for more frontier science and planetary discoveries.show more

Heat Domes Dominate the Planet! Sound up! Typically El... Niño waits until fall to impact the jet stream, but this one is supercharged. That means the heat in the Tropical Pacific is already helping to reorganize atmospheric waves, leading to persistent and intense heat domes in North America with downstream impacts in Europe. Those heat waves are of course significantly boosted by the long term warming trend. #elnino #heatwave #heatdome #extremeweathershow more

Y'all see this swirl over the Mediterranean passing south... of Benghazi? That's not a hurricane – it's a Medicane. Yes, that's a real term. The word is a portmanteau combining "Mediterranean" and "hurricane." The Mediterranean is too small to support barotropic (tropical cyclones) the scale of conventional hurricanes AND is too far north to support a truly tropical cyclone anyway. Moreover, water temperatures are too cool. (Most tropical cyclones exist over sea surface temperatures of 78 degrees or warmer; the current water temperature off the coast of Libya is about 63 degrees.) Medicanes can and occasionally do reach hurricane strength. The strongest on record was Medicane Ianos, which impacted Greece between September 17-18, 2020. It briefly became the equivalent of a tiny Category 2 hurricane with winds of 95 mph. On rare occasions, a nontropical low can meander over the Mediterranean, and a storm can form that takes on some tropical characteristics. Unlike nontropical cyclones, which are common at the mid-latitudes, medicanes feature a warm core. That requires warm sea surface temperatures. A 2016 study found that medicanes are likely to become significantly stronger by the end of the century in response to warming sea surface temperatures. Tthe researchers found a likelihood for "a higher number of moderate and violent medicanes.” Since 1980, Mediterranean sea surface temperatures have increased between 1 and 2 degrees.show more

⚠️A VERY ACTIVE Weather Pattern is setting up next... week, bringing MULTIPLE chances for major Winter Storms to sweep through the US. 🥶👊🔥This setup features a BATTLEGROUND of Warm Tropical Air clashing with Frigid Polar Air, creating an environment that is ripe for Winter Storm development. ❓Specific storm details are still VERY much up in the air, and we should not treat any single model run as gospel at this point. I'm only showing this GFS run as an example. 🌨️ The key takeaway is that the pattern is right, and Heavy Snow, Ice, and Wind are all on the table somewhere across the country. ❄️ Hang in there, my US Snow brotheren. More details to come....show more

Sunday, February 23, 2025, 3:00 PM PDT: A significant... shift in the pattern from 90° temperatures in the next 2 to 3 days across much of Southern California and the southwest. A shift in the main Pacific Jet stream axis is just approximately 230 miles due west of the Hawaiian islands and Marshall Island corridor. A series of strong Pacific storms that are trending one right after the other this particular series of storms may produce similar to what we had a couple of weeks ago that brought significant rainfall to our region. I’m watching the details as this emerges this upcoming week as we transition into March 2025. This is also known as the pinnacle of Hollywood’s award season, which is on March 2, 2025, which is next Sunday already. Higher confidence is growing in potential for at least over an inch of rainfall. Possibly higher rainfall amounts first week of March 2025. This still is being looked at closely in the next 24 to 36 hours from San Francisco to San Diego, California. The hardest-hit areas trending are San Luis Obispo to Los Angeles counties. Many burn areas from Pacific Palisades to Altadena will have to keep a close eye on this developing weather situation over the next few days as this evolves. #CAwx #CaliforniaStormsshow more

🚨 People across the South need to start preparing... for a potentially HISTORIC Winter Storm this weekend. 🧊Models continues to point toward a Major Ice Storm combined with a multi day period of Snow and Freezing Rain, with wintry precipitation lasting from Friday into Monday morning in some areas. That duration alone raises MASSIVE red flags. 📊 Nearly every major weather model and its ensembles are now on board with this scenario, showing widespread Ice Accumulations that could reach 0.5 to 1 inch in spots. Anything over 0.25 inches is destructive, with a high risk of widespread power outages and roads that are undrivable. 🌨️ Snow Totals could also be significant, with areas that normally see NO SNOW ALL YEAR, picking up 6 inches or significantly more in parts of the South. 📍 The areas most at risk include Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia. This is a serious setup with the potential for long lasting and far reaching impacts. I would start at least coming up with a plan in case roads are hazardous this weekend. 👀 I’ll stay on this closely, my brotheren.show more

❄️ SNOWFALL REPORT: This Week (12/1) More snow is... on the way as a series of storm systems sweeps across the country, bringing brutal cold temperatures behind them. Here’s a breakdown of each Storm ⬇️ 1️⃣Everything kicks off Tuesday morning with our first storm, bringing widespread accumulating snow from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. The jackpot looks to be the interior Northeast, where 4-8” are possible. Along the coast (NYC, Boston, DC), expect mostly rain. 2️⃣Later in the week, a second storm may take a similar track, bringing another round of accumulating snow to the Northeast. Details are still TBD, but snow is definitely on the table. 🥶Behind both storms, the Polar Vortex will dip into the U.S., delivering a surge of very cold air - highs in the 20s, 30s, and 40s across the eastern U.S. It’s going to be a fun week 😎❄️show more

🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸 Russia and the US will sign an agreement... tomorrow on a tunnel across the Bering Strait, says Kirill Dmitriev. ▪️The countries will continue designing a tunnel between Russia and the US. ▪️"Tomorrow we are signing an agreement to continue designing the tunnel. The tunnel will be built. This will be one of the major infrastructure projects between our countries," said the head of the RDIF. ▪️Earlier, Dmitriev noted that a tunnel connecting Russia and Alaska across the Bering Strait could be built in less than eight years, and its cost would not exceed $8 billion.show more

2027 will almost certainly be the warmest year on... record for Earth - by a long shot - and perhaps even 2026 may reach a record too. That’s due to the big boost of heat released from El Niño, on top of the long term warming. This happens as excess heat stored deep in the west tropical Pacific moves east and towards the ocean surface. When it reaches the surface the extra energy sparks thunderstorms and powers a strong subtropical jetstream. That combination releases tons of heat into the air and powers extreme weather all around the planet. As a result, the planet’s surface temperature will warm up significantly, pushing us past (probably far past) the record set in 2024. Worth noting that the planet’s warmest 10 years on record are indeed the last 10 years. And that the Earth is likely warmer now than it’s been in at least 120,000 years. #elnino #heatwave #extremeweather #science #stemshow more

The Khumbu Glacier has revealed another silent tragedy, a... body emerging from ice that once kept its secrets buried for years, pictured this season 2026. What was frozen in place is now being exposed as temperatures rise across the Himalaya, turning Everest into one of the clearest frontlines of climate change. This season, the warning signs continue higher up in the Khumbu Icefall, where massive unstable serac blocks have delayed route opening and increased danger for climbers and Sherpas. On Everest, the past is resurfacing, and the future is becoming more uncertain.show more