Hurricane #Idalia’s outerbands with embedded thunderstorms spiraling over Gainesville,... Florida. Idalia’s eye should make landfall on the coast around sunrise tomorrow morning. This will be my 65th Tropical Cyclone intercept since 1987 !!show more

Extremely Severe Cyclone Mocha is expected to make landfall... around the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast tomorrow morning. Strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge will be hitting vulnerable communities, likely to bring devastating consequences. | Simonshow more

🌀TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED NEARS QUEENSLAND 🇦🇺 🌏Tropical Cyclone #Alfred,... currently a Category 2 storm, is approaching Queensland, Australia, with landfall expected early Friday morning between the Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast, possibly impacting Brisbane. ⚠️ Winds near the center reach 85 km/h, with gusts up to 120 km/h. It may intensify to ⚠️Category 3 before landfall. 🌀 The cyclone is expected to bring storm surges up to 1 meter, damaging winds up to 130 km/h, and heavy rainfall of 200-400 mm daily, with totals exceeding 800 mm, posing a significant flood risk. 🇦🇺 Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland has issued evacuation notices for coastal areas. Schools and public transport will shut down starting Thursday. Nearly 20,000 properties in Brisbane could be impacted by flooding.show more

The previously unnamed Tropical Storm in the shallow Malacca... Strait has since been given the name Senyar. The system made landfall over the city of Langsa in Aceh, Indonesia at a 50 mph (80 kph), 996 mbar peak intensity. But Senyar isn’t done. The storm has now RE-EMERGED into the Malacca Strait and is forecast to soon make a second landfall, this one in Malaysia. While Senyar won’t be very strong (potentially only ~40 mph), a Malaysian landfall by a bonafide tropical cyclone is historically rare, as few storms on record have formed this close to the equator (due to the weakness of the Coriolis Effect here).show more

⛈️ Heavy rainfall and flooding threat from South Texas... to the lower Mississippi Valley A multi-day episode of heavy rain will be driven by the interaction of a nearly stationary cold front, tropical moisture, and a tropical disturbance. The tropical disturbance is currently located over Mexico and will gradually move toward South Texas. According to the NHC/NOAA, the chance that it will organize into a tropical cyclone remains low, around 30%. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone actually forms, the system may bring intense showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast. Over the next four days, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected from the Texas coast into Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible. Such rainfall totals could trigger flash and river flooding, posing a significant threat to life and property. ⚠️ Please monitor official warnings and follow the instructions of local authorities.show more

I am almost sure that #Tampa, #Florida will be... spared the worst of #hurricane #Milton and it appears very likely the storm may make landfall and a direct hit on #FortMyers. For most of the night Milton has been hugging the lowest level on National Hurricane Center's projected path (cone) or has wandered south of it a few times. Since then it has been pretty much following the lowest point of the cone right into Fort Myers. There is still a possibility it may track slightly south of there, just north of #Naples.show more

Moist Conveyer Belt Builds over Florida! And a big... shift too. The models are coming into much better agreement on a significant, but not deluge, rain event for West-Central Florida this weekend through next week. Heaviest totals will be along the coast. Emphasis “coast”. Expect on and off downpours - not always a washout - with the worst weather Sunday & Monday. Models show a widespread 2-4” Sanibel to Tampa to Crystal River to Panama City, but obviously with tropical bands/ downpours some spots will see much more with some localized flooding too. *BUT there’s been a noticeable shift “West” into the #Gulf next week with the moisture blob pulling away. So the spigot shuts down more quickly from Tampa southward by Tuesday. #florida #stormshow more

Y'all see this swirl over the Mediterranean passing south... of Benghazi? That's not a hurricane – it's a Medicane. Yes, that's a real term. The word is a portmanteau combining "Mediterranean" and "hurricane." The Mediterranean is too small to support barotropic (tropical cyclones) the scale of conventional hurricanes AND is too far north to support a truly tropical cyclone anyway. Moreover, water temperatures are too cool. (Most tropical cyclones exist over sea surface temperatures of 78 degrees or warmer; the current water temperature off the coast of Libya is about 63 degrees.) Medicanes can and occasionally do reach hurricane strength. The strongest on record was Medicane Ianos, which impacted Greece between September 17-18, 2020. It briefly became the equivalent of a tiny Category 2 hurricane with winds of 95 mph. On rare occasions, a nontropical low can meander over the Mediterranean, and a storm can form that takes on some tropical characteristics. Unlike nontropical cyclones, which are common at the mid-latitudes, medicanes feature a warm core. That requires warm sea surface temperatures. A 2016 study found that medicanes are likely to become significantly stronger by the end of the century in response to warming sea surface temperatures. Tthe researchers found a likelihood for "a higher number of moderate and violent medicanes.” Since 1980, Mediterranean sea surface temperatures have increased between 1 and 2 degrees.show more

This darn storm man... back for more intensification now... over the waters between Jamaica and Cuba. The eye has rapidly reformed this evening, with significant lightning in the western side -- that is indicative of fast intensifying hurricanes. Santiago de Cuba is Cuba's 2nd most populated city and could take hurricane conditions overnight. Only three major hurricanes have ever tracked across eastern Cuba in history: Matthew (2016), Ike (2008), Dennis (2005) Melissa will become the fourth overnight into Wednesday morning. Should be a pretty solid storm surge into Guantanamo Bay even away from the eye.show more

One thing we are watching now is potential ERC... (eyewall replacement cycle) beginning. Pressure / wind may have temporarily peaked. Some of the hurricane models have suggested multiple eyewall replacement cycles through Tuesday. For tonight, it is possible this eyewall replacement is quick then we see another dip even stronger overnight with lower pressure and even higher winds. These eyewall replacement cycles will have impacts on how the storm comes into FL Wednesday night. Eventually these should grow the eye and core with time. If the cycles are finished before it hits the wind shear, that could make it a little more resilient to the wind shear. A smaller eye and core probably gets bothered more by the dry air intrusion/wind shear that should be meeting up with #Milton late Wednesday off the Tampa coast. So, these cycles are important in the eventual core structure as it nears the coast late WED.show more

The steering forecast for #imelda is complex to say... the least. A direct hit of a #hurricane in the Carolina’s remains a real possibilty early week. Thats because a weak upper level low stalls and attempts to capture (soon to be Imelda) as it moves out of the #Bahamas. The key here is speed and it’s what separates the different model solutions. The models that are faster with Imelda show a landfall. But the slower members are just slow enough to allow the influence of #Humberto, and by association, the deep trough/ jet stream over New England, to “tug” Imelda out to sea at the 11th hour. Lots of balls in the air and certainly some fascinating science. Florida appears to be shielded from Direct impacts, but the Bahamas will have a direct hit of a tropical storm or low-end hurricane. Be prepared!show more

‼️I don't think people are grasping how MISERABLE this... Winter Storm will be. This Winter Storm will be NOTHING like last week’s storm❌ 🥶 Portions of the Carolinas will turn into SIBERIA on Saturday, as Hurricane Force Wind gusts and close to a FOOT of Snow fall at the same time. 🌀 Our Storm is what’s called a BOMB CYCLONE, meaning it is a rapidly strengthening Low Pressure System. 💨 Instead of a calm, steady Snow, conditions will be ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL inside the core of the storm as Blizzard like Snow and Wind WHIP around. 🌡️ On top of that, Temperatures will be Frigid, with Wind Chills close to 0. I’ll have another update later tonight, but right now this is looking like a BIG ONE for our Carolina brotheren. More to come my brotheren. 👊❄️show more

🚨 BREAKING: The greatest Sec. of State Marco Rubio... just dropped an ULTIMATUM on Iran "The Straits of Hormuz WILL be open. When this operation is over, it WILL be open, and it will be open one way or another!" "It will be open because Iran agrees to abide by international law and not block the commercial waterway, or a coalition of nations from around the world and the region, with the participation of the United States, will make sure that it's open." "One way or the other, it's going to be open." 🔥show more

Wednesday, April 3, 2024, 5:42 PM PDT: All systems... are a go for a cold and unseasonable Gulf of Alaskan April storm. Strong thunderstorms have already developed near Redding, California, and a series of embedded impulses are rotating around the main low axis off the coast of Humboldt County this afternoon. This storm system will undergo a brief 12 to 24-hour intensification process before hitting San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and Sacramento late Thursday afternoon. It will bring isolated strong to severe thunderstorm conditions. A large surface cold front will develop late Friday morning as the low axis trajectory slides down the coast towards Pismo Beach, California by Friday at dawn. Severe Weather Risk In Central And Southern California on Friday. The atmospheric conditions will become increasingly unstable, giving way to thunderstorms from central California to San Diego. The cold pool of air aloft, at minus 28 Celsius above 25,000FT, will create volatile weather conditions with the possibility of pea-sized hail and brief heavy rainfall in some areas. The air mass will be very cold, supporting a dusting of snow near the Grapevine and Cajon Pass. Temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s, and the 30s near the mountains by Friday midday. As snow levels have been trending downward and hit rock bottom, there may be some isolated areas at 2,000-foot elevation along the San Gabriel’s and parts of the San Bernardino mountains that could see a dusting of snow. Even some dusting of snow in the high desert cannot be ruled out. There is a high confidence of elevated water spouts developing from San Luis Obispo to San Diego coastal zones, especially since one of the embedded disturbances will arrive on Friday from 11 AM to 7 PM. This is also the best opportunity for ample early April sun angle, which will give way to stronger convection across our region. I'm closely monitoring this developing situation in the next 24 hours. #Californiastorms #ElNiño #April2024show more

Our tropical FOX Model just updated, and is interesting... for sure. Continues on the point that the Texas coastline to Louisiana should keep tabs closely with Hurricane Beryl. I think the most likely path at now would be more into far SE TX or NE Mexico, but there is clearly a wide range of outcomes. The FOX Model did good with Hurricane Ian's southward track from range. It did good so far with #Beryl and it's track from this weekend. The test is Wednesday, it takes the center basically over southern Jamaica, as opposed to keeping the center out over the water. Watch how it is on the "edge" of the cone this weekend in the Gulf, then "feels" that window of renewed favorable conditions for strengthening. Definitely do not think "tossing" this outcome is reasonable. Once it crosses Jamaica Wednesday I think (hope) maybe some more clarity will come in. Water temps are still extremely high in the Gulf remember too.show more

Super Typhoon Ragasa (NandoPH) has left the Babuyan Islands... of the Philippines in darkness. Now, after finally weakening just below Category 5 intensity, this monstrous storm’s convection is suddenly re-freezing around his still-perfect, ~925 MBAR stadium eye over the South China Sea. With favorable conditions ahead, Ragasa could weaken very gradually and remain a major Typhoon by the time he makes landfall in southern China. However, the track will be important. The further south Ragasa trends, the more strength he’ll lose due to land interaction.show more

Hello peeps, gu morning!!! ✨ We're still working on... the sample. Just need to make the pink traslucent areas more intense, BUT YES, they will be traslucent 🥹 what do you think?? Thanks to my dear Juno for being so patient with me during this adventure!😭🩷show more

I just need to say it… Some of you... have LOST YOUR FRIGGIN MINDS over Hurricane Milton We Do live in Sarasota County where it’s making landfall right now but do NOT live on the coast (15 miles+ inland) People have been telling us all day that we deserve to die for not leaving and to write our daughters SSN on their arms to be identified. The video to the left is the worst it has gotten. Now I want to be VERY VERY clear. If you live on the beach, are in a mobile home, or a major flood zone… Evacuation is a NECESSITY. I hope those people all got out and are safe. But I’m not joking. I’ve had family and friends telling me that ALL Florida is going to be wiped out by Milton. And to kiss my daughters goodbye tonight because we stayed. Now I mostly blame the over sensationalist media for hyping everyone up making it sound like this was going to make landfall as the most catastrophic storm in history. It literally made landfall as a Cat 3 120mph winds. Thats far from the largest. People saw that it was a Cat 5 with 200 mph winds when it was in the middle of the ocean and thought it would land at that. TikTok and random “weather people” didn’t make this any better. It’s like the whole country was watching us like NASCAR… hoping to see that fatal crash. It’s messed up.show more