The main reason people are losing their minds over... Michael Saylor is simple: Bitcoin is in a bear market, and everyone wants someone to blame. Even in 2020, he acknowledged that selling can make sense for something essential or deeply meaningful. $MSTR also sold Bitcoin for tax-loss harvesting in 2022. His point was never that no satoshi could ever be sold under any circumstances. It was that selling Bitcoin just to hold another financial asset is stupid. Every downturn needs a scapegoat.show more

🚨 BITCOIN JUST TOUCHED THE ONE LEVEL THAT HAS... ENDED EVERY BEAR MARKET. It is not a moving average. It is the cost to produce a Bitcoin. Right now that sits near $64,000. Every time price falls to this line, it bounces. The reason is simple. Miners stop selling below their own cost. Supply dries up exactly where price is now. That is how the floor forms. We are standing on it.show more

What happens if Bitcoin goes to $1,000,000 in 8... years and MSTR never issues another senior or preferred share? No new leverage. No new preferred stack. No mNAV expansion. Just Bitcoin going up and the current structure sitting there. At $63.2k BTC: MSTR implied price: ~$95.71 CEBE: ~143,535 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.055x At $1,000,000 BTC, with the exact same mNAV: MSTR implied price: ~$2,086 CEBE: ~197,678 sats/share Bitcoin return: 15.8x MSTR return: 21.8x That is ~38% more return than Bitcoin. Why? Because the senior/preferred claim stack is fixed in dollars. As Bitcoin rises, that claim stack collapses in BTC terms: ~310,379 BTC of senior claims today → ~19,616 BTC at $1M Bitcoin The common equity absorbs the difference. This is what you are getting in exchange for paying the STRC dividends. AMPLIFICATION of BITCOIN. This is what the market keeps missing. MSTR does not need the multiple to expand to outperform Bitcoin. It can outperform because fixed-dollar claims get nuked in Bitcoin terms. CEBE is the lens. Bitcoin is the detonator:show more

THE NEXT 60 DAYS COULD BE BRUTAL FOR BITCOIN... $BTC is still following the 4 year cycle and it could be over in 2 months Historically Bitcoin crashes 15%-20% in its final bear market phase before bottom If that happens BTC will dump to $50K by Q4 2026show more

This is how I’ll know the exact Bitcoin bottom... is in. The 2022 pattern points to October–December. And there is only one way to confirm it: Sentiment. Wait for the crowd to scream that Bitcoin is finished. Wait for the loudest bulls to finally break. And this cycle already has one perfect signal: Michael Saylor. The crowd was trained to believe he would never sell. Strategy would always buy. Institutions would always save Bitcoin. That belief is the trap. Retail always does the same thing: They follow the loudest bull at the worst possible time. When that bull breaks, retail breaks with him. That is when sentiment hits the floor. That is when we buy. I’ll make sure you know when it happens. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.show more

🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY🔥 Strategy... bought OVER 56,000 Bitcoin in April. That number is so absurd people are psychologically incapable of processing it. Post-halving miners produce roughly 13,500 BTC per month. Strategy just bought about 4.1x an entire month of new miner supply in one month. Now run the simple monster math: Today: Strategy BTC stack: 818,334 BTC Bitcoin price: $76,196 Bitcoin NAV: $62.35B Assume Strategy keeps buying 56,000 BTC per month for 5 years. That is: ASSUMING STRC GROWTH TOTALLY STOPS (LOL) ~672,000 BTC per year ~3,360,000 BTC over 5 years Their stack goes from: 818,334 BTC to 4,178,334 BTC Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% CAGR. Bitcoin goes from: $76,196 to roughly: $232,532 So the Bitcoin NAV becomes: 4,178,334 BTC × $232,532 = roughly $971.5 BILLION Almost $1 TRILLION in Bitcoin NAV. And the funniest part? This model assumes no mNAV expansion. No premium insanity. No additional acceleration. No credit flywheel getting stronger. No market panic as everyone realizes Strategy is vacuuming Bitcoin off the planet like a publicly traded monetary black hole. Just: 56,000 BTC per month. 25% Bitcoin CAGR. 5 years. That’s it. Don't think they can accumulate that much Bitcoin at that low of a CAGR? Think the Bitcoin CAGR has to go higher? Cool. That only helps Strategy buy more Bitcoin. The bear case is basically: “Sure, they are absorbing multiples of new supply, building the largest corporate Bitcoin balance sheet in history, converting fiat capital markets into Bitcoin ownership, and compounding NAV at escape velocity, but have you considered that I am emotionally upset?” MSTR is becoming the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine ever built. The fiat world is still modeling it like a tech stock with a weird treasury policy. GOOD LUCK.show more

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR IS PANICKING > Avg buy... price for Micro Strategy is $75,699 > Current price is $66,835 Here's what will happen, if the price don't go up this year: Phase 1: > $BTC no cash to pay dividends > has to sell Bitcoin Phase 2: > Selling Bitcoin -> the price goes down > $MSTR price goes down too > Can't raise new capital > No new BTC buys Phase 3: > Strategy has to sell > People panic and sell too > No or little new buys > Bitcoin goes to $18k > It's technically a bankruptcy The main question is: Will there be a new big player, who will buy Bitcoin as Michael Saylor does? If yes, then who and why? I will alert you when it's the right time to buy, if this moment happens.show more

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real... story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.show more

Florida’s Bitcoin Strategic reserve bill is up in committee... today! Here what you need to know 🫵 I am in Florida’s Capital right now to speak with legislators as well as speak in the committee to make sure this bill Passes. Right now Florida is not able to hold its own digital assets It has to use third party providers like hedgefunds if it wants to invest in Bitcoin or any other digital asset Which means Florida can’t directly Buy Bitcoin And it also means we are paying third parties large fees in order to be in the digital asset space No more! Let’s get Florida’s strategic bitcoin reserve bill passed and signed! Let’s get it done!show more

The IRS is giving you a 100% write-off for... buying Bitcoin miners? Under current tax law, Bitcoin mining hardware qualifies for 100% bonus depreciation. That means if you are a business owner or investor, you can write off the entire cost of your miners this year. Keep in mind, it is for the year they are placed in service. So if you are planning to capture a deduction on your April 2027 tax bill, your miners need to be hashing prior to December 31, 2026. If you have capital gains, passive income, or just a big tax bill, this is one of the most sophisticated ways to achieve a write-off and achieve Bitcoin exposure. If you are serious about building wealth and reducing your tax burden, this is the move.show more

TURKEY JUST MADE THE MOST BULLISH BITCOIN ARGUMENT IN... HISTORY. And they didn't even mean to. The Turkish Lira lost 99.99% of its value. Not 10%. Not 50%. Not 90%. 99.99%. $13,980,000,000 in T-bills sold to defend it. It's not working. This is what happens when governments print money to solve problems caused by printing money. Turkey is not an exception. Turkey is a warning. Every fiat currency in history has trended toward zero. There are only 21,000,000 Bitcoin. No government can print more. No central bank can devalue it. No T-bill sale can defend against it. The Lira chart is the most bullish Bitcoin chart ever made. And Turkey made it for us.show more

It was said that Saif was stabbed in the... back & was fighting for his life in hospital. We can see a bandage on his palm, and he is walking normally just a few days after that "deadliest attack." Even his back doesn't seem to have any bandage. Was he really stabbed?show more

This could be the most important Bitcoin signal right... now, yet 95% of people will ignore it. Every time BTC has fallen to or near its 4-Year SMA: 2019: Around $3,000 2020: Around $5,000 2022: Around $16,000 Each time, it turned out to be a generational buying opportunity. And now, BTC is back in that zone.show more

I am very confident that Bitcoin will rise rather... than fall. The bear market is over, so it is advisable to take every dip seriously when it comes to long-term investments. I still expect September to be bullish rather than bearish. The $85,000 to $87,000 range will be reached soon. I bought more Bitcoin and Ethereum today! In 2023, when Bitcoin topped (green circle), the 5D chart showed wick gaps between candles of no more than 1%. I expected that move for Monday. The difference this time, we had a weekend, in 2023 we didn’t. The stock market was closed on Monday, so I was expecting a 3-day delay. Since this is a high-timeframe (1W) pattern, delays or deviations may occur on lower timeframes than 1W. It doesn't necessarily mean it has to happen again! As soon as Bitcoin loses the area around $76,777, I’m targeting levels between $73,880 and $75,300. bitcoin:nativeshow more

The thing no one noticed: There’s a pricing lag... between betting on Bitcoin and trading Bitcoin perps. That gap usually disappears once market makers close it. Until then, you can watch both markets side by side, see the dislocation in real time, and trade it. This is exactly the kind of edge most traders never even look for.show more

THE REAL REASON BITCOIN JUST PUMPED TO $69,700 (and... will keep pumping) Everyone is staring at the green Bitcoin candle, but the move started somewhere else entirely, in the US Treasury bond market The Treasury just doubled its long-term bond buyback program old max: $2 billion per operation new max: at least $4 billion targets: the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year bonds runs from September 9 through November 4 In plain terms, the Treasury is stepping in to support the market for long-term government debt That matters because when Treasury yields fall, risk assets like Bitcoin get more attractive Right after the announcement the yields dropped 10 year: -6 bps to 4.647% 30 year: -9 bps to 5.196% Then Bitcoin ripped $65,400 at 10:45 AM -> $67,600 at 11:26 AM -> $69,700 at 11:27 AM It gained more than $2,000 in a single minute That candle trapped everyone shorting Bitcoin, their leveraged shorts got liquidated and the forced buying pushed price even higher $1.59 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours $746 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out in that one minute candle The chain was simple Treasury expands buybacks -> long-term yields fall -> Bitcoin pumps -> shorts get liquidated -> forced buying sends it even higher One correction, this is not QE and the Fed did not turn on the printer The Treasury is just buying back existing bonds to add liquidity, and the size is still small next to how much debt the US issues But the timing is the tell, the bond market moved first and Bitcoin followed, then the short squeeze turned it into an explosion Everyone is showing you the candle, almost nobody is talking about what happened right before it September 9 is the date to watch nowshow more

A few friends I’ve met in the bitcoin community... are thinking about leaving El Salvador after Bukele accepted a loan from the IMF. My wife and I moved here nearly 4 years ago and have absolutely fallen in love with the people. The food may be a little overpriced, the roads may have a bit too much trash in the ditches, the government isn’t perfect but we are staying. We are going to continue to build Casa Conejo in beautiful bitcoin mountain aka Los Naranjo’s because the air is cool, the views are spectacular, the soil produces abundant food and if you treat it right, you can live a healthy life. The country remains safe and THAT is the reason we are staying. No matter where you go in life you will find something that bothers you. We search for a bitcoin paradise but forget that heaven is not found inside of borders. It’s not accessible with any passport. No! Heaven is found within❤️💪🏻show more

Trump on the impact to Tesla with his new... 25% automotive tariffs: "It could be a net neutral or maybe good. He (Elon) has a big plant in Texas and California. Anybody that has pants in the US it's going to be good for." Tesla doesn't import any finished vehicles into the US. Every Tesla sold in the US is currently built in Texas or California.show more