The record warm Gulf along with relatively light shear... will allow Tropical Depression Two to strengthen into Tropical Storm #BERTHA later today. However, strong northerly wind shear will blow Bertha out like a candle as it approaches the Gulf Coast midweek. #tropicalupdate 🌀show more

Tropical Storm Bertha brought high surf, storm surge, and... coastal flooding advisories to Alabama's Gulf Coast on Tuesday evening, creating hazardous conditions along the shoreline.show more

Bertha back over the Gulf, probably the best it... has looked in its entire life so far. May see some slight strengthening before landfall in southeast Texas late Thursday. Persistent northerly wind shear in the Gulf has prevented this from becoming a big hurricane thankfully. After Bertha, may be a few weeks until we see our next named storm in the Atlantic Basin.show more

Watch as a strong Bermuda high and persistent southerly... fetch funnels a plume of tropical moisture north into the Gulf. The main event will start this weekend and persistent into next week. The details are fuzzy, but you can bet some folks along the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida will get 10” of rain over the next two weeks. Pinpointing exactly where though is still unclear, but all will see #drought relief! Stay tuned! #florida #rain #tropicalshow more

A broad tropical low will move slowly westward across... the northern Gulf in coming days. Periods of rain are likely along the coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach, but no day will be a wash-out…show more

Caribbean Storm Shredding Shear! You’ve probably heard that there’s... a chance of development in the Tropical Atlantic. There’s a decent signal for it in 1-2 weeks. But if it dares enter the #Caribbean, it will meet its maker with 60-80+ mph shear!show more

In an unusual twist, Tropical Storm Bertha could ingest... some wildfire smoke later Wednesday and Thursday as it tracks near Louisiana. This extra dry air is one of several factors that will keep the storm weak.show more

Best way to think about it is that Florida... will see a one-two punch. The first one will bring us rain Sunday into Monday with an area of low pressure along a stalled out front. Then the 2nd, main punch from tropical storm or hurricane approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday. WINK Newsshow more

Science!! Why did #erin strengthen again?!? Watch this. On... Tuesday strong winds aloft called wind shear chopped Erin’s head off. But Erin fought back! Expanding its circulation & outflow, by powering itself with the hottest, high-octane water yet, it literally shoved the wind shear aside, building a protective cocoon overhead, allowing its pressure to drop, winds to increase, and wind field to expand into an enormous storm. Nature works like magic! #stem #science #hurricane #HurricaneErinshow more

⛈️ Heavy rainfall and flooding threat from South Texas... to the lower Mississippi Valley A multi-day episode of heavy rain will be driven by the interaction of a nearly stationary cold front, tropical moisture, and a tropical disturbance. The tropical disturbance is currently located over Mexico and will gradually move toward South Texas. According to the NHC/NOAA, the chance that it will organize into a tropical cyclone remains low, around 30%. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone actually forms, the system may bring intense showers and thunderstorms along the western and central Gulf Coast. Over the next four days, widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are expected from the Texas coast into Louisiana, with locally higher amounts possible. Such rainfall totals could trigger flash and river flooding, posing a significant threat to life and property. ⚠️ Please monitor official warnings and follow the instructions of local authorities.show more

One thing we are watching now is potential ERC... (eyewall replacement cycle) beginning. Pressure / wind may have temporarily peaked. Some of the hurricane models have suggested multiple eyewall replacement cycles through Tuesday. For tonight, it is possible this eyewall replacement is quick then we see another dip even stronger overnight with lower pressure and even higher winds. These eyewall replacement cycles will have impacts on how the storm comes into FL Wednesday night. Eventually these should grow the eye and core with time. If the cycles are finished before it hits the wind shear, that could make it a little more resilient to the wind shear. A smaller eye and core probably gets bothered more by the dry air intrusion/wind shear that should be meeting up with #Milton late Wednesday off the Tampa coast. So, these cycles are important in the eventual core structure as it nears the coast late WED.show more

TROPICAL UPDATE: Here's the latest GRAF model for the... area pinned with a 20% chance of tropical development. The model historically is more aggressive / stronger than others, but does highlight the development of a low in the Gulf by the weekend. Regardless of development, it will help to bump up rain chances for Florida the next several days.show more

Relentless heat! The Heat Dome powering the #heatwave in... #Florida, #Texas and across the #Gulf Coast will only grow in intensity over the next week! What you see, is what you get. Tropical humidity will spike Heat Index numbers in Florida to 105-110, Texas 110-120 today. With oppressive #heat persisting through late next week.show more

Powering our very unusual pattern - with early season... Gulf cold fronts and strong wind shear - is an extremely amplified jet stream for September. It has thrown the whole Northern Hemisphere weather off-kilter. That means cool-dry weather this weekend for North-Central Florida about a month early! It also means hurricane killing wind shear across the Atlantic Basin! Here's the science: Warm air is being forced all the way up to the Arctic circle by an elongated jet stream. That will cause an "Omega block" to form this weekend over Central Canada - you can see the Greek Omega shape with cold air on either side. These "blocking" patterns are very tough to dislodge. Because what goes up, must come down, cool air is being forced south along the Eastern Sea Board bringing Faux Fall to Florida. Faux or not, we will take it! WFLA NEWSshow more

Wait for it. Major Hurricane Erin is intense, but... soon it will be massive in size. As the storm moves north the wind field will expand, as is typical of hurricanes. Tropical storm force gusts will extend all the way from the beaches of the Eastern Seaboard to Bermuda around 700 miles, with hurricane gusts over 300 miles wide. #erin #hurricane #fyp #HurricaneErinshow more

Major Hurricane #Kirk (cat 4) is now in the... Atlantic. It will continue moving towards Europe. 🧐 By mid-week, it is expected to weaken into a post-tropical storm and reach France (see wind gust map for the next 5 days).show more

Moist Conveyer Belt Builds over Florida! And a big... shift too. The models are coming into much better agreement on a significant, but not deluge, rain event for West-Central Florida this weekend through next week. Heaviest totals will be along the coast. Emphasis “coast”. Expect on and off downpours - not always a washout - with the worst weather Sunday & Monday. Models show a widespread 2-4” Sanibel to Tampa to Crystal River to Panama City, but obviously with tropical bands/ downpours some spots will see much more with some localized flooding too. *BUT there’s been a noticeable shift “West” into the #Gulf next week with the moisture blob pulling away. So the spigot shuts down more quickly from Tampa southward by Tuesday. #florida #stormshow more

‼️I don't think people are grasping how MISERABLE this... Winter Storm will be. This Winter Storm will be NOTHING like last week’s storm❌ 🥶 Portions of the Carolinas will turn into SIBERIA on Saturday, as Hurricane Force Wind gusts and close to a FOOT of Snow fall at the same time. 🌀 Our Storm is what’s called a BOMB CYCLONE, meaning it is a rapidly strengthening Low Pressure System. 💨 Instead of a calm, steady Snow, conditions will be ABSOLUTELY BRUTAL inside the core of the storm as Blizzard like Snow and Wind WHIP around. 🌡️ On top of that, Temperatures will be Frigid, with Wind Chills close to 0. I’ll have another update later tonight, but right now this is looking like a BIG ONE for our Carolina brotheren. More to come my brotheren. 👊❄️show more

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day feature the most impressive... severe thunderstorm setup I’ve seen along the California coastline in at least a decade. The first round of isolated severe thunderstorms will come ashore tonight, bringing the threat of a isolated tornado and severe wind gusts over 60 mph from the Central Coast up to Humboldt County. The severe weather threat then expands into the Central Valley during the afternoon, California’s tornado alley, with the potential for isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and even large hail. The threat then shifts south into Southern California tomorrow, where isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible. However, Christmas Eve into Christmas morning features the most potent severe weather environment of the week and could lead to a severe thunderstorm outbreak along the coastline from the Central Coast up to the North Coast. The combination of strong low-level and deep-layer shear with sufficient instability is rarely seen in this part of the world. I seriously cannot recall seeing Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) values exceed 3 along the California coastline. The peak threat window appears to be from 10 PM Thursday to 8 AM Friday. It would not be out of the question to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued Christmas Eve night with the potential for a couple tornadoes and scattered severe wind gusts. I also believe this may be the first time on record that San Francisco has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in the Day 1–3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks.show more

Dust Invasion!! Huge plumes of Saharan #dust crossing the... Atlantic now along the Trade Winds. It can be a #Hurricane killer! But expect very hazy skies and extra nice sunrises and sets next week across #Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Caribbean as rain chances go down along with the dry air. It will also come with a bit of a heat dome and crank up the heat mid to late week.show more