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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain... show more

Mario Nawfal

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72,633 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A massive shift is underway in the Persian Gulf as details emerge regarding the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. In a notable strategic pivot, Trump has chosen a path of diplomatic ambiguity over immediate military bombardment. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre suggested that the current framework represents a clear tactical victory for Iran. He argued Iran is on track to secure an end to the war that involves a firm ceasefire on the Lebanon front while not giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

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A tentative memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been reached, U.S. sources confirmed, and is now awaiting the approval of both President Trump and Iranian leadership. Imtiaz Tyab reports.

A tentative memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has been reached, U.S. sources confirmed, and is now awaiting the approval of both President Trump and Iranian leadership. Imtiaz Tyab reports.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The United States and Iran are on a knife edge as rumor turns to reality regarding a major diplomatic breakthrough. While some sources indicate Trump is ready to sign a preliminary agreement, internal teams are deeply split on whether Washington is genuinely pushing for peace or moving toward a sudden escalatory strike. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre clarifies that the current breakthrough is not a finalized detailed treaty but a highly strategic memorandum of understanding. He reveals that while the framework includes provisions to halt active warfare and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, the critical nuclear issue is being pushed down the road. Alan Eyre

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The United States and Iran are on a knife edge as rumor turns to reality regarding a major diplomatic breakthrough. While some sources indicate Trump is ready to sign a preliminary agreement, internal teams are deeply split on whether Washington is genuinely pushing for peace or moving toward a sudden escalatory strike. JCPOA Negotiator Alan Eyre clarifies that the current breakthrough is not a finalized detailed treaty but a highly strategic memorandum of understanding. He reveals that while the framework includes provisions to halt active warfare and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, the critical nuclear issue is being pushed down the road. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Military power is an instrument meant to achieve realistic objectives, yet force alone rarely leads to a clear political victory. We see this with the Israelis in Gaza and Lebanon: dominance doesn't automatically mean the adversary has been defeated. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller argues that Iran is a much bigger challenge, and there is little evidence to suggest they will yield under the current pressure. Destroying infrastructure and causing a nation to go dark is an option, but it comes with a moral and strategic cost that can't be ignored. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Military power is an instrument meant to achieve realistic objectives, yet force alone rarely leads to a clear political victory. We see this with the Israelis in Gaza and Lebanon: dominance doesn't automatically mean the adversary has been defeated. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller argues that Iran is a much bigger challenge, and there is little evidence to suggest they will yield under the current pressure. Destroying infrastructure and causing a nation to go dark is an option, but it comes with a moral and strategic cost that can't be ignored. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

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.Aaron David Miller on the "agreement" between the United States and Iran This is a 1 page Framework Miller "Round one goes to Iran" as the substantive issues have not been addressed "This could easily turn into a memorandum of misunderstanding" w/ Jessica Dean 5.23.26 825 pm ET

.Aaron David Miller on the "agreement" between the United States and Iran This is a 1 page Framework Miller "Round one goes to Iran" as the substantive issues have not been addressed "This could easily turn into a memorandum of misunderstanding" w/ Jessica Dean 5.23.26 825 pm ET

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Conflicting reports are swirling from international news outlets as Washington and Tehran race to finalize a monumental memorandum of understanding to end the war. As some regional agencies report a sweeping U.S. capitulation involving military pullouts, the emerging reality points toward a highly synchronized layout to lift the naval blockade and unfreeze billions in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz. Military analyst Stefano Ritondale points out the high-stakes political gamble playing out on the global stage. He notes that while Trump has already moved to signal a major victory to calm anxious financial markets, ongoing behind-the-scenes disputes over maritime tolls and nuclear timelines prove that a definitive resolution remains on a total knife-edge.

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Conflicting reports are swirling from international news outlets as Washington and Tehran race to finalize a monumental memorandum of understanding to end the war. As some regional agencies report a sweeping U.S. capitulation involving military pullouts, the emerging reality points toward a highly synchronized layout to lift the naval blockade and unfreeze billions in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz. Military analyst Stefano Ritondale points out the high-stakes political gamble playing out on the global stage. He notes that while Trump has already moved to signal a major victory to calm anxious financial markets, ongoing behind-the-scenes disputes over maritime tolls and nuclear timelines prove that a definitive resolution remains on a total knife-edge.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The chaotic digital environment and indirect phone negotiations between Washington and Tehran are hindering progress on a lasting nuclear agreement. While a basic moU was likely hammered out a week ago, ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller argues that the toughest phase remains because both sides must justify the deal to their hardline domestic constituencies. Ultimately, critical issues like the monitoring of Iran's 11 tons of enriched uranium and long-term sanctions relief remain entirely unresolved and will require direct, face-to-face talks to functionalize. Aaron David Miller

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The chaotic digital environment and indirect phone negotiations between Washington and Tehran are hindering progress on a lasting nuclear agreement. While a basic moU was likely hammered out a week ago, ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller argues that the toughest phase remains because both sides must justify the deal to their hardline domestic constituencies. Ultimately, critical issues like the monitoring of Iran's 11 tons of enriched uranium and long-term sanctions relief remain entirely unresolved and will require direct, face-to-face talks to functionalize. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are seeing a new reality where Israel permanently operates within the territorial space of its adversaries. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller highlights that five countries are currently in varying phases of dysfunction, allowing Turkey, Iran, and Israel to dominate the region. The dream of a functional, productive "new Middle East" is being tested by a Pandora's box of sectarian tension and state failure. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are seeing a new reality where Israel permanently operates within the territorial space of its adversaries. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller highlights that five countries are currently in varying phases of dysfunction, allowing Turkey, Iran, and Israel to dominate the region. The dream of a functional, productive "new Middle East" is being tested by a Pandora's box of sectarian tension and state failure. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Chaos erupted outside the White House complex following a sudden security incident during a critical day of diplomatic negotiations. Secret Service agents quickly swarmed the area, locking down sections near the White House and pushing reporters and media crews away as an emergency investigation began. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller was live on air as the situation unfolded. Early reports and footage from the scene show multiple gunshots fired near the intersection of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue NW, sending shockwaves through Washington as the administration worked to finalize broader Middle East agreement. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Chaos erupted outside the White House complex following a sudden security incident during a critical day of diplomatic negotiations. Secret Service agents quickly swarmed the area, locking down sections near the White House and pushing reporters and media crews away as an emergency investigation began. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller was live on air as the situation unfolded. Early reports and footage from the scene show multiple gunshots fired near the intersection of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue NW, sending shockwaves through Washington as the administration worked to finalize broader Middle East agreement. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

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39,714 次观看 • 7 小时前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller

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31,938 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

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49,555 次观看 • 2 个月前