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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully...

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Mario Nawfal

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63,102 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller
9:02

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

49,555 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🗣️ "If the war stopped today, I think the strategic victory would go to the Iranians." Former US State Department Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller tells Yalda Hakim. 🌍
1:40

🗣️ "If the war stopped today, I think the strategic victory would go to the Iranians." Former US State Department Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller tells Yalda Hakim. 🌍

Sky News

54,975 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller
7:54

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

66,559 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller
5:17

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

53,333 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller
2:00

🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

72,551 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller
4:52

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

32,416 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller
3:44

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

62,203 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller
3:04

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

19,241 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller
7:20

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

61,087 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller
8:07

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

15,090 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller
5:05

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

48,916 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller
2:43

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

39,714 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller
4:59

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

37,030 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The path forward is neither missiles nor diplomacy. It's strangulation. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller breaks down why secondary sanctions, not strikes, may be the sharpest weapon left against Tehran. "If you deal with Iran, we are going to cut you off from the U.S. financial system." Every country doing business with Iran, including China, is now on the clock. Aaron David Miller
2:37

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The path forward is neither missiles nor diplomacy. It's strangulation. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller breaks down why secondary sanctions, not strikes, may be the sharpest weapon left against Tehran. "If you deal with Iran, we are going to cut you off from the U.S. financial system." Every country doing business with Iran, including China, is now on the clock. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

47,640 görüntüleme • 12 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller
2:11

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

62,455 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The chaotic digital environment and indirect phone negotiations between Washington and Tehran are hindering progress on a lasting nuclear agreement. While a basic moU was likely hammered out a week ago, ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller argues that the toughest phase remains because both sides must justify the deal to their hardline domestic constituencies. Ultimately, critical issues like the monitoring of Iran's 11 tons of enriched uranium and long-term sanctions relief remain entirely unresolved and will require direct, face-to-face talks to functionalize. Aaron David Miller
7:10

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The chaotic digital environment and indirect phone negotiations between Washington and Tehran are hindering progress on a lasting nuclear agreement. While a basic moU was likely hammered out a week ago, ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller argues that the toughest phase remains because both sides must justify the deal to their hardline domestic constituencies. Ultimately, critical issues like the monitoring of Iran's 11 tons of enriched uranium and long-term sanctions relief remain entirely unresolved and will require direct, face-to-face talks to functionalize. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

61,660 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸 The worst-case scenario just got named out loud. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller walked through the unthinkable, step by step. "If the Iranians succeeded in actually killing an American president... I think there would be a massive response." Iran's gamble could end Iran entirely. Aaron David Miller
2:42

🇺🇸 The worst-case scenario just got named out loud. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller walked through the unthinkable, step by step. "If the Iranians succeeded in actually killing an American president... I think there would be a massive response." Iran's gamble could end Iran entirely. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

101,317 görüntüleme • 12 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP’S "RISK READY" GAMBLE: TARGETING THE SUPREME LEADER Aaron David Miller, a former state department negotiator, reveals how previous successes convinced Trump he could ignore the "experts". After strikes on Soleimani and nuclear sites didn't spark a regional war, the President felt empowered to take the ultimate risk. This "recency bias" led to a plan to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at a specific time and place. Aaron notes that Netanyahu was pushing on an open door to escalate this conflict. Aaron David Miller
5:28

🇺🇸🇮🇷 TRUMP’S "RISK READY" GAMBLE: TARGETING THE SUPREME LEADER Aaron David Miller, a former state department negotiator, reveals how previous successes convinced Trump he could ignore the "experts". After strikes on Soleimani and nuclear sites didn't spark a regional war, the President felt empowered to take the ultimate risk. This "recency bias" led to a plan to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei at a specific time and place. Aaron notes that Netanyahu was pushing on an open door to escalate this conflict. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

61,845 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller
12:10

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

72,633 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S-Iran negotiations aren't a typical diplomatic exchange; they are a high-stakes clash between two very different regimes. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller explains that U.S capacity to get a deal is limited when dealing with a repressive regime that challenges every international norm. Trump's unpredictability can be a tool, but when it alienates allies and confuses adversaries, it often ends up working against him. Aaron David Miller
5:44

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S-Iran negotiations aren't a typical diplomatic exchange; they are a high-stakes clash between two very different regimes. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller explains that U.S capacity to get a deal is limited when dealing with a repressive regime that challenges every international norm. Trump's unpredictability can be a tool, but when it alienates allies and confuses adversaries, it often ends up working against him. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

45,823 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce