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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The chaotic digital environment and indirect phone negotiations between Washington and Tehran are hindering progress on a lasting nuclear agreement. While a basic moU was likely hammered out a week ago, ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller argues that the toughest phase remains because both sides must justify the... show more

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump's erratic social media posts are designed to control financial markets, successfully keeping oil prices artificially low and stabilizing market psychology despite a looming deal. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller suggested that an obsession with the terms of the deal by the U.S. may not make much sense anyway as Iran would likely be able to bypass any nuclear restrictions. "They may create smaller labs which are harder to detect and harder to destroy." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last agreement fell apart because it was negotiated in haste, with no direct talks and no real framework. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says doing it the same way again guarantees the same result. "You can't do these negotiations on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do them on a cell phone, no matter how well-intentioned the mediators may be." Both sides need a deal they can actually sell. That requires a completely different approach. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will collapse: Recent high-stakes, indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran took place in Muscat, Oman, on Friday, February 6. The talks were exclusively nuclear-focused from Iran's perspective, as Tehran insisted on limiting the scope to its nuclear program. U.S. demands, as reported across sources appear broader and more comprehensive: 📌Removal or relocation of Iran's existing enriched uranium stockpiles. Limits on Iran's ballistic missile program and also ending support/funding for regional proxy groups. While no breakthrough was achieved and the sides remained firm in their initial positions, both characterized the meeting as a "good start" and agreed to continue diplomacy. I see it as unlikely that we will see an agreement between the countries. The sides are so far apart that it is not even possible to begin negotiating on the core issues. As negotiations remain unproductive, the U.S. is bolstering its military presence in the region.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will collapse: Recent high-stakes, indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran took place in Muscat, Oman, on Friday, February 6. The talks were exclusively nuclear-focused from Iran's perspective, as Tehran insisted on limiting the scope to its nuclear program. U.S. demands, as reported across sources appear broader and more comprehensive: 📌Removal or relocation of Iran's existing enriched uranium stockpiles. Limits on Iran's ballistic missile program and also ending support/funding for regional proxy groups. While no breakthrough was achieved and the sides remained firm in their initial positions, both characterized the meeting as a "good start" and agreed to continue diplomacy. I see it as unlikely that we will see an agreement between the countries. The sides are so far apart that it is not even possible to begin negotiating on the core issues. As negotiations remain unproductive, the U.S. is bolstering its military presence in the region.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Chaos erupted outside the White House complex following a sudden security incident during a critical day of diplomatic negotiations. Secret Service agents quickly swarmed the area, locking down sections near the White House and pushing reporters and media crews away as an emergency investigation began. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller was live on air as the situation unfolded. Early reports and footage from the scene show multiple gunshots fired near the intersection of 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue NW, sending shockwaves through Washington as the administration worked to finalize broader Middle East agreement. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last-minute cancellation of U.S. strikes on Iran may reveal the strategic bind facing Trump. Middle East analyst Aaron David Miller says limited strikes are unlikely to change Tehran's behavior, while a truly effective campaign would require weeks or even months of sustained attacks on Iranian military, energy, and leadership targets. That's a level of commitment he doubts Washington is willing to make. Miller says the aborted operation has fueled speculation that the high-alert posture was intended more as psychological pressure than a genuine prelude to war. "A massive escalation means a commitment for weeks and months... to continue to hammer a wide range of Iranian targets." Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last-minute cancellation of U.S. strikes on Iran may reveal the strategic bind facing Trump. Middle East analyst Aaron David Miller says limited strikes are unlikely to change Tehran's behavior, while a truly effective campaign would require weeks or even months of sustained attacks on Iranian military, energy, and leadership targets. That's a level of commitment he doubts Washington is willing to make. Miller says the aborted operation has fueled speculation that the high-alert posture was intended more as psychological pressure than a genuine prelude to war. "A massive escalation means a commitment for weeks and months... to continue to hammer a wide range of Iranian targets." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.–Iran deal is on the brink of collapse. Why could the world miss out on a new nuclear agreement? Here are the top 5 reasons 1️⃣ Conflicting signals on talks. Washington says a new round of negotiations is set for Doha. Tehran insists: "No talks with the U.S. are scheduled in the coming days." 2️⃣ The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. The U.S. demands unrestricted freedom of navigation, while Iran insists it has the right to control the strategic waterway. 3️⃣ No breakthrough on sanctions or the nuclear program. The fate of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the lifting of sanctions remain the biggest sticking points. 4️⃣ One spark could reignite the conflict. A recent exchange of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz—including an attack on a tanker and a U.S. response—has already triggered a new wave of mutual threats. 5️⃣ The Lebanon front is complicating everything. Iran demands a full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel insists Hezbollah must first be disarmed. As long as fighting continues, diplomacy remains deadlocked. Meanwhile, Polymarket traders now give just a 46% chance that a final U.S.–Iran nuclear deal will be reached before the end of 2026📊 Would you bet on a deal—or another escalation?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.–Iran deal is on the brink of collapse. Why could the world miss out on a new nuclear agreement? Here are the top 5 reasons 1️⃣ Conflicting signals on talks. Washington says a new round of negotiations is set for Doha. Tehran insists: "No talks with the U.S. are scheduled in the coming days." 2️⃣ The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint. The U.S. demands unrestricted freedom of navigation, while Iran insists it has the right to control the strategic waterway. 3️⃣ No breakthrough on sanctions or the nuclear program. The fate of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and the lifting of sanctions remain the biggest sticking points. 4️⃣ One spark could reignite the conflict. A recent exchange of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz—including an attack on a tanker and a U.S. response—has already triggered a new wave of mutual threats. 5️⃣ The Lebanon front is complicating everything. Iran demands a full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel insists Hezbollah must first be disarmed. As long as fighting continues, diplomacy remains deadlocked. Meanwhile, Polymarket traders now give just a 46% chance that a final U.S.–Iran nuclear deal will be reached before the end of 2026📊 Would you bet on a deal—or another escalation?

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE BILLION-DOLLAR PRESSURE COOKER With midterms approaching, Aaron David Miller, a former top diplomat, notes that the American clock is ticking faster than the Iranian one. Iran is facing massive internal unemployment and economic devastation, yet they hold $100 billion in frozen assets as a major bargaining chip. Trump needs a "short-term win" to appease donors and stabilize the global economy. Aaron wonders if both sides can find a pathway out before they overplay their hands. Aaron David Miller

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Netanyahu has no choice but to completely submit to U.S. directives on Iran because his upcoming reelection bid relies heavily on securing Trump's public endorsement. Ex-U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller talked on the matter by suggesting that if a diplomatic deal is breached, Iran may strike the UAE instead of Israel directly in an attempt to force global pressure to resolve the differences. Aaron went on to say Trump's push to expand the Abraham Accords to include states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is pure magical thinking, as the idea is completely detached from regional realities. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran's FM Spox. Baghaei:says the U.S. has agreed to: - Unfreeze Iranian assets - Lift all sanctions - Deal with compensation for war damage Iran says the remaining nuclear and sanctions talks should be sorted out within 60 days, and its oil sales are expected to restart right after the MOU is signed. That's a lot of sanctions relief packed into one deal. Writers: Daniyal, Samuel

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