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🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are seeing a new reality where Israel permanently operates within the territorial space of its adversaries. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller highlights that five countries are currently in varying phases of dysfunction, allowing Turkey, Iran, and Israel to dominate the region. The dream of a...

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Mario Nawfal

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66,375 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇱 The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu has shifted into a "big brother, little brother" dynamic that defines Israeli policy. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller says that Netanyahu cannot afford to cross a president who is currently more popular in Israel than the Prime Minister himself. The embrace of the U.S. administration means Israel must now play by Trump’s rules, even when those rules are delivered via surprise posts on social media. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller
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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇱🇧 There is a growing concern that Israel's actions in Lebanon could lead to a permanent security zone that displaces thousands. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller warns that the Israelis have given Hezbollah a massive political card to play by continuing strikes that constrain the Lebanese government. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇱🇧 There is a growing concern that Israel's actions in Lebanon could lead to a permanent security zone that displaces thousands. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller warns that the Israelis have given Hezbollah a massive political card to play by continuing strikes that constrain the Lebanese government. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S-Iran negotiations aren't a typical diplomatic exchange; they are a high-stakes clash between two very different regimes. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller explains that U.S capacity to get a deal is limited when dealing with a repressive regime that challenges every international norm. Trump's unpredictability can be a tool, but when it alienates allies and confuses adversaries, it often ends up working against him. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The current U.S-Iran negotiations aren't a typical diplomatic exchange; they are a high-stakes clash between two very different regimes. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller explains that U.S capacity to get a deal is limited when dealing with a repressive regime that challenges every international norm. Trump's unpredictability can be a tool, but when it alienates allies and confuses adversaries, it often ends up working against him. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller
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🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 3 Israeli demands are already off the table before talks even begin. Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the one thing Trump won't budge on is enrichment, and that's the only card left to play. "He needs that. Forget Netanyahu. He needs that to justify what all of this has been about." If Iran gives him that cover, a deal gets done, and Israel lives with whatever comes next. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 Every side in the Middle East is furious at Trump right now, all at once, for opposite reasons. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller broke it down cold. "Saudi and Qatar are pissed. There's no peace. Israel is pissed. Trump called off today's strikes. Iran is pissed about the threats. Americans are pissed because of high gas prices and neocons are pissed because there isn't regime change." You know you messed up when everybody is pissed. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Every side in the Middle East is furious at Trump right now, all at once, for opposite reasons. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller broke it down cold. "Saudi and Qatar are pissed. There's no peace. Israel is pissed. Trump called off today's strikes. Iran is pissed about the threats. Americans are pissed because of high gas prices and neocons are pissed because there isn't regime change." You know you messed up when everybody is pissed. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 All 3 pillars holding the relationship together are under more stress than ever before. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it out: "Israel has long ago ceased to become David. It is now seen by many Americans as Goliath." When the image shifts in the American mind, the relationship follows. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 All 3 pillars holding the relationship together are under more stress than ever before. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it out: "Israel has long ago ceased to become David. It is now seen by many Americans as Goliath." When the image shifts in the American mind, the relationship follows. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller

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66,559 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 BLOCKADES, TOLLBOOTHS, AND THE RED SEA THREAT Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator, dismisses the "insane" idea of the U.S. accepting an Iranian tollbooth in the Strait of Hormuz. A blockade is the next "bright shiny object," but it risks a massive spike in crude prices and retaliatory strikes. If the Houthis decide to block the Bab el-Mandeb, the world’s energy supply route to Asia collapses. Miller warns there is currently no clear way out of this escalatory spiral. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller
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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 Washington is consumed by Iran, Hormuz, Gaza, and Hezbollah while the debt that could collapse everything goes ignored. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller argues that if Republicans lose the House, domestic legislation dies and a cornered Trump sprints toward foreign policy, the one arena with almost no guardrails. "I shudder at what the consequences of that might be." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Washington is consumed by Iran, Hormuz, Gaza, and Hezbollah while the debt that could collapse everything goes ignored. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller argues that if Republicans lose the House, domestic legislation dies and a cornered Trump sprints toward foreign policy, the one arena with almost no guardrails. "I shudder at what the consequences of that might be." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A potentially major diplomatic breakthrough is emerging as reports point to a new memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Some leaks suggest the framework includes billions in unfrozen Iranian assets and a phased reduction of U.S. military presence in the region. Others indicate major disputes still remain over maritime transit and the Strait of Hormuz. Former U.S. State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller warned that even if a framework has been reached, the real test comes next. Trump has reportedly already notified Congress that the conflict is over, but Aaron argues that a signed memorandum alone cannot stabilize a crisis this complex. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

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