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$ASML is upgrading EUV source power to 1,000W lifting throughput to ~330 wafers/hour. That’s a path to ~50% more chip output per tool by 2030.

Shay Boloor

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78,607 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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ASML unveiled an upgrade for the light source in its EUV process that increases power from 600W to 1,000W. This improvement could increase wafer yields by as much as 50% by 2030.

ASML unveiled an upgrade for the light source in its EUV process that increases power from 600W to 1,000W. This improvement could increase wafer yields by as much as 50% by 2030.

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.Dylan Patel lays out how we know the hard upper bound on how much compute can be produced annually by 2030: around 200 GW/year. That’s a crazy number (there’s about 20 GW of AI deployed in the world right now), but it’s nowhere near enough to satisfy Sam/Elon/Dario/Demis’s ambitions. Lots of things in the supply chain can be scaled up over 4 years, including things that other people think are bottlenecks, like datacenter power or fab clean room space. But the thing that’s inflexible over that timeline is the number of EUV tools. Dylan forecasts that production of ASML’s EUV tools will scale from 60 per year now to about 100 per year by the end of the decade - which means something like 700 total machines running in 2030. For a fab to make a GW worth of the Rubin chips that NVIDIA is deploying later this year, it needs to make 55,000 3nm wafers, 6,000 5nm wafers, and 170,000 memory wafers. Each 3nm wafers needs about 20 EUV passes, so about 1.1 million passes per GW. Adding on 5nm and memory, you need two million passes. Each tool can do 75 passes per hour, so with 90% uptime that’s around 600k passes per year - so a single machine can make less than a third of a GW in a year. So in 2030, we have 700 total machines, each making 0.3ish GW a year, which means we can produce 200 GW of compute a year. That’s a lot. But Sam Altman wants a gigawatt a week by the end of the decade. Anthropic and Google will be wanting about the same. And Elon wants to be putting 100 GW in space every year. Any one of these players could maybe get what they need, but not all of them.

.Dylan Patel lays out how we know the hard upper bound on how much compute can be produced annually by 2030: around 200 GW/year. That’s a crazy number (there’s about 20 GW of AI deployed in the world right now), but it’s nowhere near enough to satisfy Sam/Elon/Dario/Demis’s ambitions. Lots of things in the supply chain can be scaled up over 4 years, including things that other people think are bottlenecks, like datacenter power or fab clean room space. But the thing that’s inflexible over that timeline is the number of EUV tools. Dylan forecasts that production of ASML’s EUV tools will scale from 60 per year now to about 100 per year by the end of the decade - which means something like 700 total machines running in 2030. For a fab to make a GW worth of the Rubin chips that NVIDIA is deploying later this year, it needs to make 55,000 3nm wafers, 6,000 5nm wafers, and 170,000 memory wafers. Each 3nm wafers needs about 20 EUV passes, so about 1.1 million passes per GW. Adding on 5nm and memory, you need two million passes. Each tool can do 75 passes per hour, so with 90% uptime that’s around 600k passes per year - so a single machine can make less than a third of a GW in a year. So in 2030, we have 700 total machines, each making 0.3ish GW a year, which means we can produce 200 GW of compute a year. That’s a lot. But Sam Altman wants a gigawatt a week by the end of the decade. Anthropic and Google will be wanting about the same. And Elon wants to be putting 100 GW in space every year. Any one of these players could maybe get what they need, but not all of them.

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$ASML is projecting ~$55B in revenue by 2030 with gross margins approaching 60%. That only works because every advanced chip built by $TSM and designed by $NVDA still has to pass through ASML’s tools. ASML remains the AI kingmaker.

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ELON MUSK: "The AI 5 chip which is going to be a great chip. All of Tesla hinges on that chip. That's the chip that going to our next gen self driving cars and it's also essential for Optimus. So that chip program was in bad shape. It wasn't on the path to success and we also had the DOJO program which was also doing okay but not on a path to be competitive with NVIDIA. So I collapsed the two programs into just one program to get everyone focused on the AI5 chip. It's performance per watt is extremely good. It is probably going to be at least 2-3 times better than NVIDIA performance per watt and 10% cost of the NVIDIA chip something like that."

ELON MUSK: "The AI 5 chip which is going to be a great chip. All of Tesla hinges on that chip. That's the chip that going to our next gen self driving cars and it's also essential for Optimus. So that chip program was in bad shape. It wasn't on the path to success and we also had the DOJO program which was also doing okay but not on a path to be competitive with NVIDIA. So I collapsed the two programs into just one program to get everyone focused on the AI5 chip. It's performance per watt is extremely good. It is probably going to be at least 2-3 times better than NVIDIA performance per watt and 10% cost of the NVIDIA chip something like that."

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