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🚨BREAKING: STRATEGY GETS B- CREDIT RATING FROM S&P GLOBAL🚨 S&P Global just gave Strategy, the first Bitcoin Treasury Company, a B- credit rating. That’s the same rating they give to bankrupt car rental companies and debt-soaked airlines. Strategy holds 640,808 Bitcoin. Roughly $74 billion in transparent, self-verifying collateral. JetBlue...

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Adam Livingston

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62,005 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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NEW: We just had the first-ever rating of a Bitcoin treasury company by a major rating agency. This is huge news for Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which pioneered Bitcoin-backed preferreds. A few months ago I asked CEO Phong Le about credit ratings and he explained the significance. 👇🏼
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NEW: We just had the first-ever rating of a Bitcoin treasury company by a major rating agency. This is huge news for Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which pioneered Bitcoin-backed preferreds. A few months ago I asked CEO Phong Le about credit ratings and he explained the significance. 👇🏼

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📺 The Bitcoin For Corporations Show Episode 19 is now live — hosted by Pierre Rochard Strategy Q3 Earnings Call Recap in conversation with Spencer Nichols. On the "BTC refinery" model, MSTR's new B- credit rating, and the future of BTC-backed credit spreads. 00:00 – Saylor's “Monster” Idea 02:01 – Q3 Highlights: Dividend Hike, Market Reactions & Marketing Strategy 06:44 – The Digital Credit Vision 14:00 – Conservation of Volatility: Investor Education & Preferred Share Mechanics 21:10 – S&P’s First Bitcoin Treasury Rating: What a B– Really Means 30:03 – Converts vs. Preferreds: Rethinking Leverage & Sequence of Returns 36:43 – Creating a (M)on(ST)e(R) 56:47 – Closing Thoughts: Share Buybacks, Strategy Risks

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BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST SHUT DOWN THE FUD. "WE NEEDED TO PROVE THAT EVEN IF WE SOLD BITCOIN... BITCOIN WOULDN'T BREAK." "NOW WE'VE PROVEN $STRC IS A STRONG CREDIT PRODUCT, AND WE CAN PAY DIVIDENDS FOR DECADES." "SELLING BITCOIN IS NOT OUR PRIMARY STRATEGY." MICHAEL SAYLOR SAYS THEY HAVE MORE THAN 33 YEARS OF CAPITAL TO SUPPORT DIGITAL CREDIT HOLDERS. THE FUD IS FALLING APART. THE BITCOIN STRATEGY HASN'T CHANGED.
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BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST SHUT DOWN THE FUD. "WE NEEDED TO PROVE THAT EVEN IF WE SOLD BITCOIN... BITCOIN WOULDN'T BREAK." "NOW WE'VE PROVEN $STRC IS A STRONG CREDIT PRODUCT, AND WE CAN PAY DIVIDENDS FOR DECADES." "SELLING BITCOIN IS NOT OUR PRIMARY STRATEGY." MICHAEL SAYLOR SAYS THEY HAVE MORE THAN 33 YEARS OF CAPITAL TO SUPPORT DIGITAL CREDIT HOLDERS. THE FUD IS FALLING APART. THE BITCOIN STRATEGY HASN'T CHANGED.

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STRATEGY & BITCOIN CREDIT: THE GREATEST ASYMMETRIC BET This is my attempt to fully explain the massive opportunity with digital credit, starting from first principles by defining money and debt, and then articulating the massive opportunity Strategy has to do something totally unprecedented. We are on the frontier of changing the global financial landscape and a world being rebuilt on Bitcoin. A new monetary operating system. This is the biggest story in all of global finance, and a whole lot larger than worrying about leverage to outperform Bitcoin on a short time horizon. This is about fundamentally rewriting the rules of the capital markets and being first when the information isn't consensus. FEW.
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STRATEGY & BITCOIN CREDIT: THE GREATEST ASYMMETRIC BET This is my attempt to fully explain the massive opportunity with digital credit, starting from first principles by defining money and debt, and then articulating the massive opportunity Strategy has to do something totally unprecedented. We are on the frontier of changing the global financial landscape and a world being rebuilt on Bitcoin. A new monetary operating system. This is the biggest story in all of global finance, and a whole lot larger than worrying about leverage to outperform Bitcoin on a short time horizon. This is about fundamentally rewriting the rules of the capital markets and being first when the information isn't consensus. FEW.

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Welcome back to The Hurdle Rate Podcast. Episode 33: Credit Ratings for Digital Capital. The crew is back covering Strategy's credit rating, how this could impact the insurance industry, interest coverage ration and industry credit ratings, what it will take for Bitcoin Treasury Company credit ratings to go higher, Mike Alfred, big volumes, and more. Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Tim Kotzman. 0:30 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate 1:00 - Strategy Gets a Credit Rating 13:13 - How This Will Impact the Insurance Industry 22:20 - Interest Coverage Ratio and Industry Credit Ratings 27:53 - What Will It Take for Bitcoin Treasury Companies Credit Ratings to Go Higher? 44:38 - Mike Alfred, Big Volumes, and What It All Means 51:48 - US China Trade Deal and Other Macro Tailwinds
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Welcome back to The Hurdle Rate Podcast. Episode 33: Credit Ratings for Digital Capital. The crew is back covering Strategy's credit rating, how this could impact the insurance industry, interest coverage ration and industry credit ratings, what it will take for Bitcoin Treasury Company credit ratings to go higher, Mike Alfred, big volumes, and more. Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, and Tim Kotzman. 0:30 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate 1:00 - Strategy Gets a Credit Rating 13:13 - How This Will Impact the Insurance Industry 22:20 - Interest Coverage Ratio and Industry Credit Ratings 27:53 - What Will It Take for Bitcoin Treasury Companies Credit Ratings to Go Higher? 44:38 - Mike Alfred, Big Volumes, and What It All Means 51:48 - US China Trade Deal and Other Macro Tailwinds

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STRATEGY TO THE S&P 500 BECAUSE IT'S INEVITABLE Everyone thinks MSTR’s S&P 500 path is just “Bitcoin goes up, number goes up.” Wrong. This is about Strategy turning from a deranged Bitcoin trebuchet into an institutionally legible capital markets weapon. GAAP profitability. Convertible debt cleanup. USD liquidity reserves. Passive index flows. And the hilarious possibility that the world’s most boring retirement portfolios may eventually be forced to own amplified Bitcoin exposure in a suit and tie. STRATEGY WORLD DOMINATION IS INEVITABLE:
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Pio reveals the real reason why Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin "People ask why he sold the 32 Bitcoin, and it's two reasons. They want S&P inclusion, and they want a better rating from the agencies that rate these preferred equities. Right now their rating is junk, the agencies are literally writing the Bitcoin to zero, not recognizing it as an asset." "This sounds insane but go try it. If you have 5 million dollars of real Bitcoin on chain and you walk into a bank for a mortgage loan and offer it as collateral, they go, so that's zero. I'm not kidding. But if you hold IBIT, the Bitcoin ETF, that's totally fine, because it's just an equity." "The S&P gatekeepers specifically said that because Saylor had demonstrated he'd never sell any Bitcoin, they couldn't view it as a viable part of his balance sheet. So he needs to show he can pay the dividend with Bitcoin if he has to. Once stretch gets a AAA rating, do you know how much capital a thing paying 11% is going to attract?"
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Pio reveals the real reason why Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin "People ask why he sold the 32 Bitcoin, and it's two reasons. They want S&P inclusion, and they want a better rating from the agencies that rate these preferred equities. Right now their rating is junk, the agencies are literally writing the Bitcoin to zero, not recognizing it as an asset." "This sounds insane but go try it. If you have 5 million dollars of real Bitcoin on chain and you walk into a bank for a mortgage loan and offer it as collateral, they go, so that's zero. I'm not kidding. But if you hold IBIT, the Bitcoin ETF, that's totally fine, because it's just an equity." "The S&P gatekeepers specifically said that because Saylor had demonstrated he'd never sell any Bitcoin, they couldn't view it as a viable part of his balance sheet. So he needs to show he can pay the dividend with Bitcoin if he has to. Once stretch gets a AAA rating, do you know how much capital a thing paying 11% is going to attract?"

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Michael Saylor may have just revealed the future of Bitcoin treasury companies… and Strive is already building it. In this conversation with Strive's Chief Strategy Officer Avik Roy, we break down: • Why Strategy’s latest earnings call changed the game • The rise of digital credit ($STRC, $SATA & beyond) • Why some Bitcoin treasury firms failed • Why selling Bitcoin can actually be bullish • The next phase of institutional $BTC adoption One of the most insightful discussions we’ve had on Bitcoin treasury strategy. 00:00 Avik Roy’s Bitcoin Origin Story 14:26 What Avik Actually Does at Strive 17:39 Why Strive Wants to Become a PURE Bitcoin Company 20:19 Will Bitcoin Treasury Companies Start Consolidating? 27:14 Europe vs US Bitcoin Treasury Markets 29:00 Michael Saylor’s BIGGEST Earnings Call Hint 30:25 Why STRC Is Dominating the Market 33:22 The Most Shocking Part of Strategy’s Earnings Call 37:32 “Bitcoin Is Fungible… But Not for Taxes” 41:19 The Credit Rating Catalyst That Could Change Everything 44:18 Why Some Smaller Bitcoin Treasury Companies Failed 48:19 Will SATA & STRC Keep Paying Huge Yields? 52:35 Which Bitcoin Treasury Company Is Next? 56:44 “Bitcoin Treasuries Are Like Private Equity in the 1980s” 01:01:18 Macro Outlook: Bitcoin, Inflation & The Fed 01:05:08 Final Thoughts & Where to Follow Avik Roy Full episode 👇

One Chair

26,877 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. And Robin Seyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. In our latest conversation, we went deep into: → Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market → Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC → The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve → Why $STRC could return to par → Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF → The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies → The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody → The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation → And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen. This was a fun one. 00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey 07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR) 14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever? 21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100 25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now? 34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big? 39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock? 44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries 53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody 59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR) 01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy? 01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis 01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors 01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr Full episode 👇
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Strategy $MSTR is one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market. And Robin Seyr believes it could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. In our latest conversation, we went deep into: → Why $MSTR could massively outperform Bitcoin in the next bull market → Strategy selling Bitcoin to support $STRC → The rapidly growing $4.65B USD reserve → Why $STRC could return to par → Strategy vs. Strive $ASST & Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF → The hidden custody risks of Bitcoin treasury companies → The Coldcard incident & the future of self-custody → The risk of Bitcoin rehypothecation → And Robin's extraordinary long-term 200–300x $MSTR thesis Robin went from dismissing Strategy entirely to believing it may be the biggest investment opportunity he's ever seen. This was a fun one. 00:00 From Tesla to Bitcoin — Robin’s Investment Journey 07:31 Why Robin Is So Bullish on Strategy (MSTR) 14:36 Could 2026 Be Strategy’s Best Bitcoin Accumulation Year Ever? 21:24 Why $STRC Will Return to $100 25:30 Why Is $MSTR So Cheap Right Now? 34:01 Strategy’s $4.65B Cash Reserve — Is It Too Big? 39:50 Would Robin Buy Strategy Preferred Stock? 44:49 Strategy vs. Strive, Metaplanet & Other Bitcoin Treasuries 53:27 The Coldcard Incident Changed Bitcoin Self-Custody 59:09 The Biggest Risks When Investing in Strategy (MSTR) 01:04:33 Is Bitcoin Rehypothecation a Real Risk for Strategy? 01:12:08 The 200–300x Long-Term Strategy Thesis 01:14:40 Robin’s Most Important Advice for Bitcoin Investors 01:15:59 Where to Follow Robin Seyr Full episode 👇

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32,736 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

Michael Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin can 500x. The more interesting question is how. At BTC Prague, we discuss whether Bitcoin’s path forward is driven primarily by adoption and savings, or by capital flowing in through global credit markets. We also tackle mNAV, concerns around dilution, and Bitcoin per share. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Why Michael Saylor calls this the most exciting year in Bitcoin history 2:34 Setting the record straight: why Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin 3:55 How Strategy works like a reserve bank built on Bitcoin 6:58 How the company turns Bitcoin gains into payouts - without the tax hit 9:12 Answering the short sellers 11:40 Why a better credit rating could put Strategy in the S&P 500 13:27 Saylor responds to his critics on X 14:47 The constant balancing act: chasing growth without taking on too much risk 16:22 The balance sheet explained: what the company actually owes 20:56 What “digital credit” really means, in plain terms 24:06 What it really costs to raise money 27:31 The trade-off: more Bitcoin per share vs. more risk 41:07 Why idealism alone won’t get Bitcoin there - but big money can 49:42 The “AI summer” pulling money away and when it flows back to Bitcoin
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Michael Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin can 500x. The more interesting question is how. At BTC Prague, we discuss whether Bitcoin’s path forward is driven primarily by adoption and savings, or by capital flowing in through global credit markets. We also tackle mNAV, concerns around dilution, and Bitcoin per share. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Why Michael Saylor calls this the most exciting year in Bitcoin history 2:34 Setting the record straight: why Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin 3:55 How Strategy works like a reserve bank built on Bitcoin 6:58 How the company turns Bitcoin gains into payouts - without the tax hit 9:12 Answering the short sellers 11:40 Why a better credit rating could put Strategy in the S&P 500 13:27 Saylor responds to his critics on X 14:47 The constant balancing act: chasing growth without taking on too much risk 16:22 The balance sheet explained: what the company actually owes 20:56 What “digital credit” really means, in plain terms 24:06 What it really costs to raise money 27:31 The trade-off: more Bitcoin per share vs. more risk 41:07 Why idealism alone won’t get Bitcoin there - but big money can 49:42 The “AI summer” pulling money away and when it flows back to Bitcoin

Natalie Brunell ⚡️

545,020 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨STRATEGY WILL TAKE OVER THE WORLD - DIGITAL CREDIT MASTERCLASS🚨 Credit is the operating system of the world, and the next upgrade is already here. I break down: Why the credit market is the real boss fight of global finance Why legacy credit collapses into the same failure modes every cycle What “digital credit” means in real capital markets terms, speed, liquidity, distribution, transparency Why STRC matters as the first mainstream bridge product people can buy in a brokerage account The Strategy flywheel, how a company turns yield demand into a repeatable capital engine The endgame, how a trusted issuer becomes a platform, and a platform absorbs flows This is the part of the thesis most people miss. Strategy is building an issuance machine, a product suite, and a new category of public-market credit instruments. If digital credit becomes the standard format for income allocation, the largest market in the world starts routing through the issuers who can manufacture trust and liquidity at scale. And that’s how Strategy eats the world:
25:29

🚨STRATEGY WILL TAKE OVER THE WORLD - DIGITAL CREDIT MASTERCLASS🚨 Credit is the operating system of the world, and the next upgrade is already here. I break down: Why the credit market is the real boss fight of global finance Why legacy credit collapses into the same failure modes every cycle What “digital credit” means in real capital markets terms, speed, liquidity, distribution, transparency Why STRC matters as the first mainstream bridge product people can buy in a brokerage account The Strategy flywheel, how a company turns yield demand into a repeatable capital engine The endgame, how a trusted issuer becomes a platform, and a platform absorbs flows This is the part of the thesis most people miss. Strategy is building an issuance machine, a product suite, and a new category of public-market credit instruments. If digital credit becomes the standard format for income allocation, the largest market in the world starts routing through the issuers who can manufacture trust and liquidity at scale. And that’s how Strategy eats the world:

Adam Livingston

140,199 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🚨SAYLOR DESTROYS ALL CRITICS WITH USD CASH RESERVE - STRATEGY UPDATE 12.1.25🚨 Michael Saylor just broke the brains of every critic who spent 5 years predicting Strategy’s collapse. The $1.44B cash reserve announcement completely destroys the “LUNA 2.0” narrative and exposes how unserious the crypto commentariat really is. Strategy holds 650,000 BTC and enough cash to run the company for nearly two years with ZERO BITCOIN SELLING. In this video, I walk through the entire update like adults while laughing at the panic influencers who still think “MSTR bad” is a sophisticated thesis. S&P Global got addressed directly. Insolvency claims got vaporized. Market access concerns got resolved in real time. Critics are now scrambling to pretend they understood any of this. Watch the breakdown. Watch the receipts. Watch the complete destruction of the “death spiral” storyline. Strategy is not failing. Strategy is expanding. THE CRITICS ARE FAILING:
19:56

🚨SAYLOR DESTROYS ALL CRITICS WITH USD CASH RESERVE - STRATEGY UPDATE 12.1.25🚨 Michael Saylor just broke the brains of every critic who spent 5 years predicting Strategy’s collapse. The $1.44B cash reserve announcement completely destroys the “LUNA 2.0” narrative and exposes how unserious the crypto commentariat really is. Strategy holds 650,000 BTC and enough cash to run the company for nearly two years with ZERO BITCOIN SELLING. In this video, I walk through the entire update like adults while laughing at the panic influencers who still think “MSTR bad” is a sophisticated thesis. S&P Global got addressed directly. Insolvency claims got vaporized. Market access concerns got resolved in real time. Critics are now scrambling to pretend they understood any of this. Watch the breakdown. Watch the receipts. Watch the complete destruction of the “death spiral” storyline. Strategy is not failing. Strategy is expanding. THE CRITICS ARE FAILING:

Adam Livingston

244,611 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

🚨STRATEGY MISSES S&P 500 - TOTAL CLOWN SHOW DESTROYED!🚨 This is an OUTRAGE. The S&P committee is a TOTAL JOKE. REPOST THIS TO SEND THESE CLOWNS A MESSAGE. Strategy (MSTR) just got ghosted by the S&P 500 while a loot-box ad pusher, a meme-stock pawn shop, and an HVAC handyman grabbed the velvet rope. Welcome to the corporate clown show where reality is optional and earnings are apparently a fashion crime. Strategy stacks six-hundred-plus-thousand Bitcoin and spits ten-billion dollars a quarter like a demented cash volcano, yet the index committee still hands it a participation ribbon at the kiddie table. Grab a seat, bring asbestos popcorn, watch the tent catch fire:
13:36

🚨STRATEGY MISSES S&P 500 - TOTAL CLOWN SHOW DESTROYED!🚨 This is an OUTRAGE. The S&P committee is a TOTAL JOKE. REPOST THIS TO SEND THESE CLOWNS A MESSAGE. Strategy (MSTR) just got ghosted by the S&P 500 while a loot-box ad pusher, a meme-stock pawn shop, and an HVAC handyman grabbed the velvet rope. Welcome to the corporate clown show where reality is optional and earnings are apparently a fashion crime. Strategy stacks six-hundred-plus-thousand Bitcoin and spits ten-billion dollars a quarter like a demented cash volcano, yet the index committee still hands it a participation ribbon at the kiddie table. Grab a seat, bring asbestos popcorn, watch the tent catch fire:

Adam Livingston

87,791 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

LIVE NOW - Michael Salor’s Master Plan: "Fix the Money, Fix the World." Bitcoin to $21M. Strategy as a digital credit machine. An “8% bank account” for a billion people. Michael Michael Saylor joins Bankless for the first time to unpack: - Bitcoin becomes digital capital - Strategy’s Bitcoin credit machine - Quantum without panic - A new view on Ethereum - The “fix the money” thesis Enjoy the episode! -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:00 Michael Saylor’s $21M Bitcoin thesis 4:33 What has to go right for Bitcoin to get there 11:00 Has Bitcoin adoption stalled out? 13:20 Why STRC became Strategy’s breakout product 18:05 The pitch behind a Bitcoin-backed money market 21:13 How STRC is engineered to stay stable 27:31 Where the 11.5% yield comes from 36:35 Is Strategy taking too much risk? 46:50 Does Strategy ever stop buying Bitcoin? 58:48 Quantum, panic, and the Bitcoin response 1:16:18 Michael Saylor on Ethereum today 1:25:46 “Fix the money, fix the world” 1:38:39 The crypto reactor and Strategy’s endgame
1:40:50

LIVE NOW - Michael Salor’s Master Plan: "Fix the Money, Fix the World." Bitcoin to $21M. Strategy as a digital credit machine. An “8% bank account” for a billion people. Michael Michael Saylor joins Bankless for the first time to unpack: - Bitcoin becomes digital capital - Strategy’s Bitcoin credit machine - Quantum without panic - A new view on Ethereum - The “fix the money” thesis Enjoy the episode! -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:00 Michael Saylor’s $21M Bitcoin thesis 4:33 What has to go right for Bitcoin to get there 11:00 Has Bitcoin adoption stalled out? 13:20 Why STRC became Strategy’s breakout product 18:05 The pitch behind a Bitcoin-backed money market 21:13 How STRC is engineered to stay stable 27:31 Where the 11.5% yield comes from 36:35 Is Strategy taking too much risk? 46:50 Does Strategy ever stop buying Bitcoin? 58:48 Quantum, panic, and the Bitcoin response 1:16:18 Michael Saylor on Ethereum today 1:25:46 “Fix the money, fix the world” 1:38:39 The crypto reactor and Strategy’s endgame

Bankless

518,352 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO EVERY STRATEGY PREF STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC Strategy has quietly built the first full Bitcoin-backed yield curve, and we are ripping the whole thing open. In this deep-dive I break down STRC, STRD, STRK, and STRF, show who should own each one, and explain the collateral math behind their double-digit coupons. If you want to understand how fixed-income finally merged with hard-capped digital collateral, this is your blueprint. Grab a coffee and let’s decode the future of Bitcoin credit.
16:52

THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO EVERY STRATEGY PREF STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC Strategy has quietly built the first full Bitcoin-backed yield curve, and we are ripping the whole thing open. In this deep-dive I break down STRC, STRD, STRK, and STRF, show who should own each one, and explain the collateral math behind their double-digit coupons. If you want to understand how fixed-income finally merged with hard-capped digital collateral, this is your blueprint. Grab a coffee and let’s decode the future of Bitcoin credit.

Adam Livingston

165,597 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."
2:17

Threadguy explains why the market won't let Bitcoin recover while Saylor's still in "If you put a gun to your head and asked what makes a real emphatic bottom for Bitcoin, it's Strategy deleveraging, forced selling of the Bitcoin, and Michael Saylor on trial for financial crimes. That's a bottom right there." "Strategy has $1.7 billion promised annually to the end of time. Out of 5,000 public companies in America, maybe 100 make $1.7 billion in profit a year, and Strategy owes that forever. They're only worth their balance sheet in Bitcoin and they can't sell the Bitcoin. The whole bit is earnings per share, but the only way they earn is by selling more Strategy, and that only works if Bitcoin goes up, which it can't while Saylor's still in. So the market is just saying say uncle."

Kai

52,699 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.
3:25

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.

Wu Blockchain

12,629 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Presented by Onramp. Today's guest is Phong Le, President and Chief Executive Officer of Strategy, the world's first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company. We recorded this episode in Phong's office at Strategy Headquarters in Tysons, VA. A huge thank you to the Strategy team for their assistance in coordinating this project. Here's my conversation with Phong Le. 0:00 - Intro 0:32 - Phong’s background and experience at Strategy 2:40 - Serving on Strategy’s Board of Directors and how the Executive Team and Board work together 5:30 - Strategy’s international operations and headcount 6:57 - Strategy’s present day Business Intelligence operations 14:30 - Are Strategy employees Intrapreneurs? 20:44 - What did Phong learn from the last Crypto Winter? 28:35 - If Phong could choose the narrative for Bitcoin, what would it be? 44:34 - Does Phong push back on Treasurers that don’t adopt a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy? 47:39 - Talking KPIs and 53:43 - Should there be more Strategy replicas? 57:06 - Is STRK as successful as initially thought? 1:05:42 - Was the ATM of shares in the Fall too fast? 1:09:04 - Could it make sense for Strategy to buy its own shares back? 1:10:15 - How many people work on the Bitcoin Strategy team? 1:12:30 - How does Strategy measure success for its new Bitcoin advocacy role? 1:15:12 - Will Strategy become the largest and most profitable company in the world?
1:17:45

Welcome back to The Bitcoin Treasuries Podcast. Presented by Onramp. Today's guest is Phong Le, President and Chief Executive Officer of Strategy, the world's first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company. We recorded this episode in Phong's office at Strategy Headquarters in Tysons, VA. A huge thank you to the Strategy team for their assistance in coordinating this project. Here's my conversation with Phong Le. 0:00 - Intro 0:32 - Phong’s background and experience at Strategy 2:40 - Serving on Strategy’s Board of Directors and how the Executive Team and Board work together 5:30 - Strategy’s international operations and headcount 6:57 - Strategy’s present day Business Intelligence operations 14:30 - Are Strategy employees Intrapreneurs? 20:44 - What did Phong learn from the last Crypto Winter? 28:35 - If Phong could choose the narrative for Bitcoin, what would it be? 44:34 - Does Phong push back on Treasurers that don’t adopt a Bitcoin Treasury Strategy? 47:39 - Talking KPIs and 53:43 - Should there be more Strategy replicas? 57:06 - Is STRK as successful as initially thought? 1:05:42 - Was the ATM of shares in the Fall too fast? 1:09:04 - Could it make sense for Strategy to buy its own shares back? 1:10:15 - How many people work on the Bitcoin Strategy team? 1:12:30 - How does Strategy measure success for its new Bitcoin advocacy role? 1:15:12 - Will Strategy become the largest and most profitable company in the world?

Tim Kotzman

1,198,932 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr