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David Friedberg: "I think that AI may actually break education." "I think the internet was the first leg on the stool to break higher education." "The internet democratized access to information and knowledge." "You can watch MIT graduate courses. That's an incredible transition that's happened for humanity, for society,...

112,132 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

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David Friedberg Explains Why AI Will Break Every Economic Model: Will Output Surpass Consumptive Capacity? I think fundamentally, if you're driving productivity with AI, you're driving leverage on human time and leverage on capital. The question is, how quickly can you drive that up? And that's a function of how much consumption there is, how much capacity there is for consumption. So if your earnings are the same, but things are getting more expensive, you're not happy. If your earnings go up by 10% and things stay the same price, you got 10% more than you had last year, you're gonna be happy. I just think all humans are driven by this need to consume more each year than they did last year. So I think for me, that's the lower limit on consumptive capacity in the world. The question that we're now facing, which we've never faced in human history before, is there an upper limit on consumptive capacity? Because AI creates such a profound shift in productivity and in leverage that normally you would say, “Hey, when we get a new tool or we get new leverage in a system, we build a new technology, we can make more with less.” Therefore, everyone gets access to more things for the same price or the cost of things that they consume come down by a certain price. But there may be a situation now where the ability to make stuff exceeds the capacity to consume stuff, and that is something that I don't think we’ve faced before. And I think that's where a lot of the models start to break. Just general economic models, just general productivity models and general social models. And this goes to the point about, like, what is everyone going to do? In the same way that I think we've argued that maybe SaaS was a transitory business phenomenon that existed between the foundation of the internet and the era of AI, it may be the case that knowledge work in general is also a transitory phenomenon that only existed between the foundation of the computer, or computing tools, and the existence of AI, generally speaking. And if all of that goes away very quickly, and all of those people can be redistributed and recast into doing other higher level, more creative things, their productivity goes up by 100x, is there really a consumer on the other end of all of that productivity? Is there really enough consumptive capacity? And I think that's the profound question that we all face.

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.Joe Lonsdale: AI Must Strengthen, Not Replace, Western Civilization "We still have a lot of our smartest friends working at DOGE. They're still cutting billions of dollars of nonsense. I'm really glad they're there. I don't want them to give it up. They're still fixing a lot of things with these different areas. I'm obviously supportive of everything Elon Musk overall did there. I was a little frustrated with the comment he made earlier this week, which was that there's a tidal wave of AI coming, and therefore, we don't need to worry about cleaning the beach of the government. I think that's actually the wrong conceptual model. The correct conceptual model is that AI is coming to our society, and it's really important that AI ends up lifting everyone up. And the way it's going to do that is through Western civilization's ways that work. We have this civilization that's built based on the enlightenment, property rights, Judeo-Christian values and classical virtues. It's a functional civilization. We don't want to give that all up for AI. We want to make healthcare and education work better, but we have to do it through the way it works. I think making government work better is really, really hard. It takes a lot of persistence. It takes a lot of time. On the margin, his time might be better spent building these amazing AI companies, and I think that's completely legit. I don't think we should discount the importance of fixing government, especially because of AI, because if we want to have everyone do better in health care and education and government itself, these things need to be functional. They need to work with it. They need to block crony capitalism. That means functional government. You need both."

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DAVID SACKS ON THE AI RACE: "The US is currently in an AI race, and our chief global competition is China, obviously. They're the only other country that has the talent, the resources, and the technology expertise to basically beat us in AI. And I think whoever wins this AI race, that's going to have tremendous ramifications for both our economy and our national security. Clearly, we want the US to be the winner, just like we were with the internet, and every other technology revolution before that […] We know that to win this AI race, we have to be the most innovative. You can't regulate your way just to beating your competitor. You have to out-innovate them. And we know that in the United States, the innovation comes from the private sector, not the government. So we have to do everything we can to help our companies win, to help them be innovative, and that means getting a lot of red tape out of the way… We have to have the most AI infrastructure in the US. It has to be the easiest place to build it. All of the new data centers that are going in, they require tremendous power, so getting ahead of the curve on energy, making sure we stand up all of this new infrastructure we're going to need to basically produce these AI factories… We want the US technology stack to dominate globally. We want to be the partner of choice for the whole world… I think everyone in Silicon Valley understands that the way that you win a technology race is to have the biggest ecosystem […] You just want everybody to be building on top of your technology stack, and that's what we want for the United States." David Sacks w/Marc Benioff Dreamforce

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Two years ago today, Elon Musk introduced xAI with these words: “The overarching goal of xAI is to build a good AGI with the purpose of trying to understand the universe. I think the safest AI, the safest way to build an AI is actually make one that is maximally curious and truth seeking. So you go for try to aspire to the truth with acknowledged error. Does one ever actually get fully to the truth? It's not clear, but one should always aspire to that and try to minimize the error between what you think is true and what is actually true. My theory behind the maximally curious, maximally truthful as being probably the safest approach is that I think to a superintelligence, humanity is much more interesting than not humanity. One can look at the various planets in our solar system, the moons and the asteroids, and really probably all of them combined are not as interesting as humanity. As people know, I'm a huge fan of Mars, but Mars is just much less interesting than Earth with humans on it. And so I think that that kind of approach to growing an AI, and I think that is the right word for it, growing an AI is to grow it with that ambition. I've spent many years thinking about AI safety and worrying about AI safety. And I've been one of the strongest voices calling for AI regulation or oversight just to have some kind of oversight, some kind of referee, so that it's not just up to companies to decide what they want to do. I think there's also a lot to be done with AI safety, with industry cooperation. I kind of like Motion Pictures association, so I think there's value to that as well. But I do think there's got to be some like in any kind of situation that is, even if it's a game, they have referees. So I think it is important for there to be regulation. Like I said, my view on safety is like try to make it maximally curious, maximally truth seeking. And I think this is, this is important that you to avoid the inverse morality problem. Like if you try to program a certain morality, you can have the, you, you can basically invert it and get the opposite, what is sometimes called the Waluigi problem. If you make Luigi, you risk creating Waluigi at the same time. So I think that's a metaphor that a lot of people can appreciate.”

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WATCH: Joe Lonsdale on Elon, Trump & the future of DOGE: "I'm obviously supportive of everything Elon did there. I was a little frustrated with the comment he made earlier this week, which was that, oh, there’s a tidal wave of AI coming and therefore we don’t need to worry about cleaning [up] government. I think that’s actually the wrong conceptual model..." Andrew Ross Sorkin: We often talk about DOGE. I know you’re an old pal of Elon’s. What do you think about some of the comments that Elon has made about DOGE recently? And just the talk about fractured relationships, the fractured relationship with the Trump Administration right now? Joe Lonsdale: Listen, there’s been a lot of mess there the last couple of weeks. We still have a lot of our smartest friends working at DOGE. They’re still cutting billions of dollars of nonsense. I’m really glad they’re there. I don’t want them to give it up. I'm obviously supportive of everything Elon overall did there. I was a little frustrated with the comment he made earlier this week, which was that, oh, there’s a tidal wave of AI coming. And therefore we don’t need to worry about cleaning the beach of the government. I think that’s actually the wrong conceptual model. The correct conceptual model, Andrew, is that AI is coming to our society, and it’s really important that AI ends up lifting everyone up. And the way it’s going to do that is through western civilization... so we have this civilization that’s based on the Enlightenment, based on property rights. It’s Judeo-Christian values. It’s classical virtues, it’s a functional civilization. We don’t want to give that all up for AI. We want to go in, we want to make healthcare and education work better, but we have to do it through the way it works. Andrew: What did you think he was saying there? Because here he was for a very long time saying, we need to actually make government more efficient. And then there seemed to be a little bit of a switch to say, actually, maybe not. Was that a lesson that he learned? Just sort of suffering in Washington in the swamp, or do you think that was really a view that, you know, I really is going to change everything, and basically everyone was wasting their time? Joe: I think making government work better is really, really hard. It takes a lot of persistence. It takes a lot of time. On the margin, his time might be better spent building these amazing AI companies, and I think that’s completely legit. But I don’t think we should discount the importance of fixing government, especially because of AI, because if we want to have everyone do better in health care and education and government itself, these things need to be functional. They need to work with it. They need to block crony capitalism. That means functional government. So you need both.

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David Friedberg: “Gaming is the future of entertainment, and the future of gaming is AI.” @jason: “Friedberg, what are your thoughts on the gaming industry versus social media versus traditional media?” david friedberg: “One way to answer that question is to think about how people spend their time.” “Do you spend more minutes on social media, or on traditional media, or playing games? And how is that trending?” “But importantly, which of those will accrue more benefit, and as a result, drive more hours spent from AI?” “One way to think about this thesis is that AI is going to ultimately accrue to video game entertainment far more than social media entertainment or traditional content.” “If you believe in AI, and you believe in the improvements in productivity, generally speaking, people in the industrialized world will generally have more free time on their hands and be able to support themselves with the deflationary effects of AI over time.” “So if there's more time on people's hands, the general market for entertainment is growing, and if the general market for entertainment is growing, gaming is the future of entertainment, and the future of gaming is AI.” “Because I think you can create dynamic, more engaging experiences that will benefit from a back and forth sort of relationship than you can with traditional content or with social media.” “If you're a noob in Fortnite, like you're an early player in Fortnite, you're mostly playing against AI, because what they do is they tune the AI to be easier to beat so that you can slowly develop your skills.” “What was happening early was they were seeing a high degree of churn in Fortnite because kids would go on and play for the first time and they'd get paired up with kids that were better than them, and so they would never win, and they would get frustrated and they would quit the game and stop.” “So the churn rate was high. So AI unlocked higher engagement and higher retention, and I think we're seeing that in a lot of different gaming platforms now.” “So AI can be used, for example, to maximally increase time, engagement, satisfaction, happiness.”

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