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Every hedge fund manager brags about their conviction. This EM manager says it's the exact thing that blows up portfolios: Sinan Xin runs an EM tech long/short fund that's beaten MSCI World over 3 years at 30-40% net. Sinan Xin explains: "Conviction is sometimes an abused term in the...

65,053 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Andy Green talks about the work Freddy Peralta has put in between his starts and how Peralta has dealt with adversity this season: "I think the first thing for him - this is basically important for any competitor to know - this is how great you actually are. When short-term evidence points in the other direction, you have to get back to the mindset of expecting to win and expecting to dominate. The first thing is flipping that feeling that you have after tough outings to conviction. That's work. We don't wake up in the morning after a tough outing and feel great about ourselves. There's not a player in the world that does. The work done to get back to a mind that's positive instead of negative, neutral or stressed, that's part of it. I've been impressed with the way he's gone about this last week. I've been impressed with the way he's carried himself around the clubhouse. Been impressed in our conversations we've had with one another. It's get on the attack and believe you're about to go dominate. Belief precedes performance. It always does. The best players in the world know they're great. We're getting one inducted into the Hall of Fame today that was great, but the belief he had came from the work he did and then also the conviction he took to the box with him as a hitter. Freddy's going to do the same thing today. He's going to face a very good lineup and if you look back historically, he's had a lot of success against a lot of these guys. He's pitched well against some of the best hitters in the world. Why? Because he's one of the best pitchers in the world. He's got to carry himself like that. I don't know that the world loves to hear that because we like to beat up people who are beat up rather than hold people up that are beat up. He's had a tougher year this year, but all of us around him that are part of creating conviction, we're going to build belief in him today and believe it's going to be a great day and go out there and attack those guys and be vintage Freddy Peralta."

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James Simons, the legendary mathematician who built the single most successful hedge fund ever run, averaging 66 percent a year, decade after decade, without slowing down: "I can show you the exact reason smart people lose money, and it has nothing to do with being smart. It took me years to actually believe my own answer, and believing it changed everything I built after." nobody outside his own firm has heard him explain it this plainly. start with the feeling you already know. you check a position and something in you says you nailed it. the certainty feels earned, feels like proof you understand something other people don't. the next morning you check again. same read, same instincts, same person. now it feels like you never understood anything at all. nothing about how confident you felt yesterday predicted how wrong you'd feel today. most people chase a sharper version of that same feeling. a better instinct, a stronger gut call, one more signal to trust a little more than the last one. he spent years assuming that was the answer too. nobody pitching "high conviction" out loud admits their conviction might be the exact thing costing them money. they just call the losing days bad luck and the winning days skill. zoom out to how this plays out on a desk today. a trade doesn't happen because someone walks in certain they've spotted a winner. it happens because a tested model says so, and only because it says so, no exceptions carved out for a feeling that seems too strong to ignore. the industry sells conviction like it's the whole game. spend enough years watching your own certainty flip on you and you stop believing that. the skill was never having the best gut feeling in the room. it was building something disciplined enough to ignore that feeling completely, every single time, even when it screams at you to make the exception. the edge was never the smartest guess. it was refusing to make one. People pay six figures to sit in a room and hear this. it's in this video. for free.

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Black American is honest and says you can’t put Black jurors on cases with Black defendants because they will side with the Black defendant and not convict them She says “A lot of Black people don’t think deeper than race — a lot of black people are bias” “I've been trying to hold myself back from speaking on this subject, the Karmelo Anthony case, but I've been online and I've seen a lot of videos, you know, and I'm learning more and more about it. A lot of Black people don't understand why there are no Black jurors, you know, on the trial. A lot of them don't think deeper than race, you you know, so I'm going to explain it to you. The reason why there were no Black jurors — is because of the response on the internet from Black people about this case, about this situation. A lot of Black people actually believe that Karmelo Anthony is not a murderer — A lot of Black people believe that what Karmelo Anthony did was right. Let me say something. If the roles were reversed, y'all would want the little white boy dead. If a little white boy stabbed a little Black boy at a school track meet, all hell would break loose. Every Black parent, every Black person would be screaming, "Life in prison! The death penalty!" People would definitely be screaming just racism, racism, racism — A lot of Black people are biased” “So no wonder why there were no Black jurors. All because y'all wanted the little white boy to die. Y'all wanted him to die” There is real data to support this Black juries have a 12% conviction rate against black defendants, vs a 59% against whites. So that indicates that there is a 47% interracial bias when you have black jurors White juries have a 33% conviction rate against white defendants, vs a 26% against blacks, which actually demonstrates a negative 7% interracial bias Black juries have a 12% conviction rate against their own race and a 59% conviction rate against white people

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