Everyone thinks Google will beat OpenAI because of Veo 3. But OpenAI + Microsoft are going to crush Google. Here's my 6-part theory 👇

Google I/O 2025 showed off some cool tech: Gemini 2.5 Pro with better reasoning. Veo 3 making realistic videos from text. Flow - a filmmaking tool that's genuinely impressive. But great demos don't win markets. Look at these numbers 👇

The numbers don't lie: • 2M+ developers build on OpenAI's API. • 80% of Fortune 500 companies use ChatGPT. • 60,000+ businesses use Azure OpenAI. OpenAI's tech is already in products used by billions because Microsoft put GPT-4 everywhere. But who uses Gemini?

Microsoft provided OpenAI the cash and computing power and OpenAI focused 100% on pushing AI forward. Google was busy with a thousand different projects whereas OpenAI had ONE mission. Reminds me of this video from Steve Jobs: "Focus always wins"

Yes, Gemini 2.5 Pro has impressive stats: 18.8% vs 6.4% for GPT-4 on a reasoning benchmark, 92% on math competition tests, and 1 million token context vs GPT-4's 128K. But GPT-4 still wins where it matters: Coding success rate: 74.1% vs 70.4% Factual accuracy: 62.5% vs 52.9%

But winning the AI race isn't about launching the most updated models. It's about maintaining consistency. OpenAI keeps delivering: GPT-4, multimodal features, huge context windows, plugins, function calling. Innovation after innovation. Google is just catching up to where OpenAI was a year ago.

Leaving ChatGPT is damn hard. Here's why: Plugin ecosystem connects to external services, enterprise versions are customized for companies, and developer APIs power thousands of apps. Each extension makes the ecosystem stronger.

And the feedback loop is brutal: More users = more data. More data = better models. Better models = more users. ChatGPT has millions of interactions daily. This real-world testing makes OpenAI's models better, faster.

Microsoft owns the enterprise AI trust: Your data isn't used for training with ChatGPT Enterprise and Azure runs in secure environments. Whereas Google still fights the perception that it's an ad company. Enterprise trust takes years to build & Microsoft is years ahead.

Yes, Google DeepMind has insane talent. But Google moves way too slow - and it's obvious because they have to take care of the investors, the stock market and what not. Whereas startups like OpenAI move fast and break things : YC's first lesson. Found a meme for it:

Google will push Gemini across Search, Android, YouTube, Gmail and gain users fast. But OpenAI and Microsoft have built something that's incredibly hard to break: User habits, developer loyalty, and enterprise workflows. The longer this goes, the harder it gets for Google.

Google I/O 2025 showed Google can make great AI tech. But OpenAI and Microsoft built something more valuable: Massive adoption + enterprise trust + ecosystem lock-in. What do you think of this? Let me know in the comments 👇

Thanks for making it to the end! A little about me: I built a $4.5M ARR business proving cold email still works. Started in a cramped Berlin flat during lockdown. Now running global teams across 10 countries, remotely. Currently COO @ ColdIQ (

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