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Everyone's blaming Michael Saylor for this drawdown. Jamie Coutts looked at the data and came to a different conclusion: "#Bitcoin didn't top because of MicroStrategy." Jamie Coutts (Jamie Coutts CMT) is chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and one of the most rigorous liquidity researchers in the space. He...

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Michaël van de Poppe

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107,207 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Please enjoy this masterclass on liquidity with the one and only CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes. 00:00 Introduction 02:22 Liquidity Expansion and Challenges 04:02 China and the Need for Monetization 04:39 Impact of Global Liquidity Drainage 06:17 Funding Strategies and Hidden Stimulus 07:21 Bond Market Structure and Fragility 08:24 Dependence on Hedge Funds for US Debt 09:55 Basel IV and Financial Repression 12:01 Treasury General Account (TGA) and Liquidity Injection 14:16 Duration of the Liquidity Cycle 16:25 US-China Liquidity Deal and the Dollar’s Role 18:56 Global Demand for US Treasuries 22:03 Monetary Inflation vs. High Street Inflation 24:03 Business Cycle and Liquidity Extension into 2026 27:22 Japan’s Role in US-China Financial Tensions 30:05 Europe’s Economic Challenges and Fragmentation 32:31 UK’s Debt and Potential Currency Devaluation 34:36 Central Banks Quietly Adding Liquidity 36:10 Who Will Lead the Next Liquidity Cycle? 39:58 Timing of the Next QE Announcement 42:32 Gold, Bitcoin, and Hard Assets as Inflation Hedges 45:34 Generational Wealth Transfer and Monetary Policy 49:42 The Future of Debt Refinancing and Liquidity Expansion 53:51 Closing Thoughts on Global Liquidity Trends As ever, I hope you find this useful...
56:01

Please enjoy this masterclass on liquidity with the one and only CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes. 00:00 Introduction 02:22 Liquidity Expansion and Challenges 04:02 China and the Need for Monetization 04:39 Impact of Global Liquidity Drainage 06:17 Funding Strategies and Hidden Stimulus 07:21 Bond Market Structure and Fragility 08:24 Dependence on Hedge Funds for US Debt 09:55 Basel IV and Financial Repression 12:01 Treasury General Account (TGA) and Liquidity Injection 14:16 Duration of the Liquidity Cycle 16:25 US-China Liquidity Deal and the Dollar’s Role 18:56 Global Demand for US Treasuries 22:03 Monetary Inflation vs. High Street Inflation 24:03 Business Cycle and Liquidity Extension into 2026 27:22 Japan’s Role in US-China Financial Tensions 30:05 Europe’s Economic Challenges and Fragmentation 32:31 UK’s Debt and Potential Currency Devaluation 34:36 Central Banks Quietly Adding Liquidity 36:10 Who Will Lead the Next Liquidity Cycle? 39:58 Timing of the Next QE Announcement 42:32 Gold, Bitcoin, and Hard Assets as Inflation Hedges 45:34 Generational Wealth Transfer and Monetary Policy 49:42 The Future of Debt Refinancing and Liquidity Expansion 53:51 Closing Thoughts on Global Liquidity Trends As ever, I hope you find this useful...

Raoul Pal

425,509 次观看 • 1 年前

"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant
40:09

"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant

Michaël van de Poppe

530,624 次观看 • 2 个月前

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU
34:04

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU

Raoul Pal

533,987 次观看 • 1 年前

2026 Is CRYPTO’S Biggest Year Since 2020 Crypto doesn't always need to be about 100% speculation and guesswork. Understanding this is essential if you're a crypto holder. The U.S. is now borrowing money just to pay the interest on money it already borrowed. Interest payments pass $1T next year. NY Fed basically saying the Treasury market comes first... So: They’ll cut rates. They’ll print money. They’ll change the rules. Whatever it takes to make that debt roll smoothly. Every one of those moves = more liquidity. More liquidity = risk assets go up. Here is the pipeline: QT ends → rate cuts → balance sheet expansion → risk assets Not a halving cycle, but a liquidity cycle. Intro 00:00 The U.S. debt problem 00:30 Why it matters to crypto holders 3:30
7:09

2026 Is CRYPTO’S Biggest Year Since 2020 Crypto doesn't always need to be about 100% speculation and guesswork. Understanding this is essential if you're a crypto holder. The U.S. is now borrowing money just to pay the interest on money it already borrowed. Interest payments pass $1T next year. NY Fed basically saying the Treasury market comes first... So: They’ll cut rates. They’ll print money. They’ll change the rules. Whatever it takes to make that debt roll smoothly. Every one of those moves = more liquidity. More liquidity = risk assets go up. Here is the pipeline: QT ends → rate cuts → balance sheet expansion → risk assets Not a halving cycle, but a liquidity cycle. Intro 00:00 The U.S. debt problem 00:30 Why it matters to crypto holders 3:30

Dan Gambardello

24,384 次观看 • 9 个月前

🚨 BITCOIN HAS DUMPED TO $63K FOR A REASON The market isn't moving randomly. → 1,064 days of bull market. → 364 days of bear market. History will repeat, and Bitcoin will bottom out at ~$50,000 this cycle. Reminder: I publicly called the $17K Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025. The next market call will be posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on. Don't become exit liquidity.
0:37

🚨 BITCOIN HAS DUMPED TO $63K FOR A REASON The market isn't moving randomly. → 1,064 days of bull market. → 364 days of bear market. History will repeat, and Bitcoin will bottom out at ~$50,000 this cycle. Reminder: I publicly called the $17K Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025. The next market call will be posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on. Don't become exit liquidity.

Lofty

58,397 次观看 • 1 个月前

"The government system is set up whereby it has to continually dilute the currency to keep it going. And that really represents a theft of the earnings and productivity of the middle to lower classes." Lawrence Lepard (Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world") wrote The Big Print. He's spent his career studying monetary debasement and he came on to explain why they can never stop printing, and what that means for Bitcoin at $60K. His call, in his own words: "I think Bitcoin could go up three x in the next two years. Let's say it's 60 round numbers at 60 today. My working model is kind of two years out, we'll be at 180." We cover: - Why in a credit-based system they're trapped: "you have to grow credit and you have to grow the money supply, or else the whole thing collapses" - Why he says the Fed is "gaslighting us" and what they can't admit - Gold ran 67% last year while Bitcoin lagged. Why he thinks that lag gets followed by "severe outperformance" - The scale: Bitcoin at ~$1.3T, gold at ~$30T, ~$1,000T of global financial assets - Why he calls Bitcoin "monetary debasement insurance," not a trade - The 10–20% allocation question, and why he says you'd regret not having it - "The Big Print": the two we've already had, and the one he says is still coming That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest cases I've heard for why the currency has to keep getting diluted. Thanks to Lawrence for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks for OKX Dutch for being our partner for the show. Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:21 – Investing in MicroStrategy: A Contrarian View 10:05 – Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy 20:14 – Bitcoin vs. Gold 24:01 – What’s Causing the Bitcoin Sell-Off? 29:02 – AI, Economic Growth and the Federal Reserve 32:34 – Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Economic Discontent 40:41 – Bitcoin and the Case for Sound Money 43:54 – Could Hyperinflation Become a Reality? 47:50 – Navigating Volatility and Liquidity Crises 55:51 – What Inflation Data Really Tells Us
1:01:24

"The government system is set up whereby it has to continually dilute the currency to keep it going. And that really represents a theft of the earnings and productivity of the middle to lower classes." Lawrence Lepard (Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world") wrote The Big Print. He's spent his career studying monetary debasement and he came on to explain why they can never stop printing, and what that means for Bitcoin at $60K. His call, in his own words: "I think Bitcoin could go up three x in the next two years. Let's say it's 60 round numbers at 60 today. My working model is kind of two years out, we'll be at 180." We cover: - Why in a credit-based system they're trapped: "you have to grow credit and you have to grow the money supply, or else the whole thing collapses" - Why he says the Fed is "gaslighting us" and what they can't admit - Gold ran 67% last year while Bitcoin lagged. Why he thinks that lag gets followed by "severe outperformance" - The scale: Bitcoin at ~$1.3T, gold at ~$30T, ~$1,000T of global financial assets - Why he calls Bitcoin "monetary debasement insurance," not a trade - The 10–20% allocation question, and why he says you'd regret not having it - "The Big Print": the two we've already had, and the one he says is still coming That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest cases I've heard for why the currency has to keep getting diluted. Thanks to Lawrence for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks for OKX Dutch for being our partner for the show. Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:21 – Investing in MicroStrategy: A Contrarian View 10:05 – Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy 20:14 – Bitcoin vs. Gold 24:01 – What’s Causing the Bitcoin Sell-Off? 29:02 – AI, Economic Growth and the Federal Reserve 32:34 – Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Economic Discontent 40:41 – Bitcoin and the Case for Sound Money 43:54 – Could Hyperinflation Become a Reality? 47:50 – Navigating Volatility and Liquidity Crises 55:51 – What Inflation Data Really Tells Us

Michaël van de Poppe

242,613 次观看 • 2 个月前

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers
1:22:33

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers

Bankless

42,363 次观看 • 10 个月前

"Tokenization and AI agents." Jamie Coutts CMT's entire 12-month playbook for #crypto demand is five words long. The interesting part is who he says shows up as the buyer: "The marches inevitable. Bessent was out last week talking about blockchain and digitalization. So they want it, obviously, because they're going to find buyers for their debt." Translation: the US government isn't warming to tokenization out of conviction — it has record issuance to place, and tokenized markets mean more buyers for Treasuries. Demand for crypto rails, driven by the state's own funding problem. Meanwhile AI agents need neutral rails no single company controls. Machines that need to transact, and a government that needs to borrow. Strange coalition — but neither one trades on sentiment.
0:25

"Tokenization and AI agents." Jamie Coutts CMT's entire 12-month playbook for #crypto demand is five words long. The interesting part is who he says shows up as the buyer: "The marches inevitable. Bessent was out last week talking about blockchain and digitalization. So they want it, obviously, because they're going to find buyers for their debt." Translation: the US government isn't warming to tokenization out of conviction — it has record issuance to place, and tokenized markets mean more buyers for Treasuries. Demand for crypto rails, driven by the state's own funding problem. Meanwhile AI agents need neutral rails no single company controls. Machines that need to transact, and a government that needs to borrow. Strange coalition — but neither one trades on sentiment.

Michaël van de Poppe

30,347 次观看 • 1 个月前

I'm positioned for a new bull market. I've said it publicly, with my own money behind it. So I invited the one macro strategist who thinks I'm walking into a trap. "What you're seeing right now is not a new bull market. It's actually a bear market rally. It's also called a fool's rally." Henrik Zeberg (Henrik Zeberg) is known for calling major market turns. His scenario is specific, and it's brutal: #Bitcoin bounces to $115,000-$120,000, gets rejected a second time, and then gets crushed, up to 90% from here. Driven by a recession Bitcoin has genuinely never lived through, and a dollar strengthening at exactly the wrong moment. Thanks to OKX for being today's sponsor of the show! We cover: - Why what looks like a breakout is, in his read, the setup, not the escape - The avalanche effect: how liquidity stress cascades into risk assets - Why Bitcoin has never actually been tested by a real recession - His case that the four-year cycle theory is misleading an entire generation into waiting for a bottom that never comes the way they expect - What AI does to labor, inflation and the Fed's dilemma - How he'd navigate the volatility either way Timestamps: 00:00 - Bitcoin's Recent Surge 02:59 - Bitcoin vs Risk Assets 05:52 - The Avalanche Effect 08:52 - Bear Rally Or Bull Market? 11:58 - The Dollar's Role 14:56 - Sentiment And The Clarity Act 18:03 - Liquidity vs Real Economy 20:59 - The Fed's Dilemma 24:12 - Bitcoin In A Weak Economy 31:21 - Inflation And Consumers 34:05 - Inflation vs The Labor Market 37:22 - Nasdaq And Bitcoin Outlook 40:43 - A Weakening US Economy 45:29 - AI's Impact On Labor 51:34 - Bitcoin In A Recession 54:08 - Navigating The Volatility One of us is wrong. That's exactly why this conversation needed to happen. Who’s side are you on?
59:55

I'm positioned for a new bull market. I've said it publicly, with my own money behind it. So I invited the one macro strategist who thinks I'm walking into a trap. "What you're seeing right now is not a new bull market. It's actually a bear market rally. It's also called a fool's rally." Henrik Zeberg (Henrik Zeberg) is known for calling major market turns. His scenario is specific, and it's brutal: #Bitcoin bounces to $115,000-$120,000, gets rejected a second time, and then gets crushed, up to 90% from here. Driven by a recession Bitcoin has genuinely never lived through, and a dollar strengthening at exactly the wrong moment. Thanks to OKX for being today's sponsor of the show! We cover: - Why what looks like a breakout is, in his read, the setup, not the escape - The avalanche effect: how liquidity stress cascades into risk assets - Why Bitcoin has never actually been tested by a real recession - His case that the four-year cycle theory is misleading an entire generation into waiting for a bottom that never comes the way they expect - What AI does to labor, inflation and the Fed's dilemma - How he'd navigate the volatility either way Timestamps: 00:00 - Bitcoin's Recent Surge 02:59 - Bitcoin vs Risk Assets 05:52 - The Avalanche Effect 08:52 - Bear Rally Or Bull Market? 11:58 - The Dollar's Role 14:56 - Sentiment And The Clarity Act 18:03 - Liquidity vs Real Economy 20:59 - The Fed's Dilemma 24:12 - Bitcoin In A Weak Economy 31:21 - Inflation And Consumers 34:05 - Inflation vs The Labor Market 37:22 - Nasdaq And Bitcoin Outlook 40:43 - A Weakening US Economy 45:29 - AI's Impact On Labor 51:34 - Bitcoin In A Recession 54:08 - Navigating The Volatility One of us is wrong. That's exactly why this conversation needed to happen. Who’s side are you on?

Michaël van de Poppe

168,407 次观看 • 6 天前

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."
2:02

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."

Sense Receptor

39,191 次观看 • 3 个月前

"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid
54:26

"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid

Michaël van de Poppe

276,556 次观看 • 3 个月前

"The short term price of Bitcoin is now controlled by Wall Street. And they want your Bitcoin." Simon Dixon (Simon Dixon) spent a decade watching the same institutions that dismissed Bitcoin quietly move to capture it. He came on to explain the plan for the coins you're holding and the one move they can't stop. "They don't want you to self custody it. They want you to borrow against it. They want you to trade perpetual futures." His framework is sovereign vs subordinate: either you hold Bitcoin you can access with no permission from a bank or a broker, or you're in debt to the system for everything you own. We cover: - Why Wall Street now controls Bitcoin's short-term price and what they actually want with your coins - How Bitcoin gets captured: custodians, ETFs, lending products - The unrealized gains tax and how it's used to strip assets - Why he says you cannot vote your way out of this - Where you actually sit on the sovereign vs subordinate spectrum - Why self custody is the one thing they can't touch Thanks to Simon for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks to OKX Dutch for sponsoring this week’s episode of New Era Finance. Make sure to use their 8% Deposit bonus in the comment tweet! Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:33 - Michael Saylor and the Financial Industrial Complex 05:23 - How Wall Street Took Control of Bitcoin 11:14 - Tokenization and Control in the Financial System 16:58 - Unrealized Gains Tax and Asset Stripping 36:50 - Boycotting the FIC and Building Sovereignty 49:44 - Bitcoin: Centralization vs Decentralization 57:46 - The Path to Sovereignty
1:10:44

"The short term price of Bitcoin is now controlled by Wall Street. And they want your Bitcoin." Simon Dixon (Simon Dixon) spent a decade watching the same institutions that dismissed Bitcoin quietly move to capture it. He came on to explain the plan for the coins you're holding and the one move they can't stop. "They don't want you to self custody it. They want you to borrow against it. They want you to trade perpetual futures." His framework is sovereign vs subordinate: either you hold Bitcoin you can access with no permission from a bank or a broker, or you're in debt to the system for everything you own. We cover: - Why Wall Street now controls Bitcoin's short-term price and what they actually want with your coins - How Bitcoin gets captured: custodians, ETFs, lending products - The unrealized gains tax and how it's used to strip assets - Why he says you cannot vote your way out of this - Where you actually sit on the sovereign vs subordinate spectrum - Why self custody is the one thing they can't touch Thanks to Simon for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks to OKX Dutch for sponsoring this week’s episode of New Era Finance. Make sure to use their 8% Deposit bonus in the comment tweet! Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:33 - Michael Saylor and the Financial Industrial Complex 05:23 - How Wall Street Took Control of Bitcoin 11:14 - Tokenization and Control in the Financial System 16:58 - Unrealized Gains Tax and Asset Stripping 36:50 - Boycotting the FIC and Building Sovereignty 49:44 - Bitcoin: Centralization vs Decentralization 57:46 - The Path to Sovereignty

Michaël van de Poppe

168,022 次观看 • 2 个月前

Buying Your Next Home with Bitcoin: The People’s Reserve (Podcast Episode) I had a blast recording this show with CJK to celebrate the launch of Peoples Reserve. Enjoy! 🟠 Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Launch Week Insights 02:58 The Current State of Bitcoin and Market Psychology 05:58 CJ's Journey into Bitcoin and Founding People's Reserve 11:48 The Evolution of Bitcoin and Ethereum 15:09 The Foundation of People's Reserve and Its Purpose 17:52 People's Reserve: A New Financial Tool for Homebuyers 24:03 The Impact of People's Reserve on the Housing Market 26:53 The Exciting Potential of Bitcoin Mortgages 27:50 Understanding the Savings Crisis 29:54 Bitcoin as a Solution for Home Ownership 30:37 TrueFi and the Future of Mortgages 31:58 The Real Estate Market Crisis 33:44 Innovative Mortgage Solutions with TrueFi 36:19 Investing in Bitcoin-Backed Mortgages 38:39 The Dual Market: Consumers and Investors 40:04 Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift in Finance 42:50 Exporting the American Dream with Bitcoin 45:46 The Race to Zero: Global Currency Printing 49:43 Bitcoin as a Settlement Layer for Finance 52:01 Building a Better Future with Bitcoin
54:56

Buying Your Next Home with Bitcoin: The People’s Reserve (Podcast Episode) I had a blast recording this show with CJK to celebrate the launch of Peoples Reserve. Enjoy! 🟠 Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Launch Week Insights 02:58 The Current State of Bitcoin and Market Psychology 05:58 CJ's Journey into Bitcoin and Founding People's Reserve 11:48 The Evolution of Bitcoin and Ethereum 15:09 The Foundation of People's Reserve and Its Purpose 17:52 People's Reserve: A New Financial Tool for Homebuyers 24:03 The Impact of People's Reserve on the Housing Market 26:53 The Exciting Potential of Bitcoin Mortgages 27:50 Understanding the Savings Crisis 29:54 Bitcoin as a Solution for Home Ownership 30:37 TrueFi and the Future of Mortgages 31:58 The Real Estate Market Crisis 33:44 Innovative Mortgage Solutions with TrueFi 36:19 Investing in Bitcoin-Backed Mortgages 38:39 The Dual Market: Consumers and Investors 40:04 Bitcoin: A Paradigm Shift in Finance 42:50 Exporting the American Dream with Bitcoin 45:46 The Race to Zero: Global Currency Printing 49:43 Bitcoin as a Settlement Layer for Finance 52:01 Building a Better Future with Bitcoin

Jesse Tevelow

12,435 次观看 • 2 个月前

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.
57:16

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.

Bitcoin Magazine

19,345 次观看 • 2 个月前

I sat down with CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes to understand why crypto fell off a cliff while Gold hit $5,000. A new episode of New Era Finance Podcast is live: In my conversation with Michael Howell, we go deep into: – why 2026 will NOT be a strong year for Bitcoin – the liquidity cycle that drives every crypto crash – "95% of people don't own assets; they're impoverished" – why China is secretly driving the gold rally – where to buy Bitcoin (hint: below $80K) A must-watch if you're wondering why your portfolio is bleeding and what comes next. Thanks to our sponsor, OKX Dutch! Get up to €100 in Bitcoin for free by signing up to OKX through the link here:
0:45

I sat down with CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes to understand why crypto fell off a cliff while Gold hit $5,000. A new episode of New Era Finance Podcast is live: In my conversation with Michael Howell, we go deep into: – why 2026 will NOT be a strong year for Bitcoin – the liquidity cycle that drives every crypto crash – "95% of people don't own assets; they're impoverished" – why China is secretly driving the gold rally – where to buy Bitcoin (hint: below $80K) A must-watch if you're wondering why your portfolio is bleeding and what comes next. Thanks to our sponsor, OKX Dutch! Get up to €100 in Bitcoin for free by signing up to OKX through the link here:

Michaël van de Poppe

145,244 次观看 • 7 个月前