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Everyone's blaming Michael Saylor for this drawdown. Jamie Coutts looked at the data and came to a different conclusion: "#Bitcoin didn't top because of MicroStrategy." Jamie Coutts (Jamie Coutts CMT) is chief crypto analyst at Real Vision and one of the most rigorous liquidity researchers in the space. He...

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Michaël van de Poppe

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64,119 views • 3 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Please enjoy this masterclass on liquidity with the one and only CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes. 00:00 Introduction 02:22 Liquidity Expansion and Challenges 04:02 China and the Need for Monetization 04:39 Impact of Global Liquidity Drainage 06:17 Funding Strategies and Hidden Stimulus 07:21 Bond Market Structure and Fragility 08:24 Dependence on Hedge Funds for US Debt 09:55 Basel IV and Financial Repression 12:01 Treasury General Account (TGA) and Liquidity Injection 14:16 Duration of the Liquidity Cycle 16:25 US-China Liquidity Deal and the Dollar’s Role 18:56 Global Demand for US Treasuries 22:03 Monetary Inflation vs. High Street Inflation 24:03 Business Cycle and Liquidity Extension into 2026 27:22 Japan’s Role in US-China Financial Tensions 30:05 Europe’s Economic Challenges and Fragmentation 32:31 UK’s Debt and Potential Currency Devaluation 34:36 Central Banks Quietly Adding Liquidity 36:10 Who Will Lead the Next Liquidity Cycle? 39:58 Timing of the Next QE Announcement 42:32 Gold, Bitcoin, and Hard Assets as Inflation Hedges 45:34 Generational Wealth Transfer and Monetary Policy 49:42 The Future of Debt Refinancing and Liquidity Expansion 53:51 Closing Thoughts on Global Liquidity Trends As ever, I hope you find this useful...
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Please enjoy this masterclass on liquidity with the one and only CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes. 00:00 Introduction 02:22 Liquidity Expansion and Challenges 04:02 China and the Need for Monetization 04:39 Impact of Global Liquidity Drainage 06:17 Funding Strategies and Hidden Stimulus 07:21 Bond Market Structure and Fragility 08:24 Dependence on Hedge Funds for US Debt 09:55 Basel IV and Financial Repression 12:01 Treasury General Account (TGA) and Liquidity Injection 14:16 Duration of the Liquidity Cycle 16:25 US-China Liquidity Deal and the Dollar’s Role 18:56 Global Demand for US Treasuries 22:03 Monetary Inflation vs. High Street Inflation 24:03 Business Cycle and Liquidity Extension into 2026 27:22 Japan’s Role in US-China Financial Tensions 30:05 Europe’s Economic Challenges and Fragmentation 32:31 UK’s Debt and Potential Currency Devaluation 34:36 Central Banks Quietly Adding Liquidity 36:10 Who Will Lead the Next Liquidity Cycle? 39:58 Timing of the Next QE Announcement 42:32 Gold, Bitcoin, and Hard Assets as Inflation Hedges 45:34 Generational Wealth Transfer and Monetary Policy 49:42 The Future of Debt Refinancing and Liquidity Expansion 53:51 Closing Thoughts on Global Liquidity Trends As ever, I hope you find this useful...

Raoul Pal

425,422 views • 1 year ago

"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant
40:09

"I haven't sold a single sat." Michael Saylor (Michael Saylor) is Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth. While crypto twitter blamed him for the correction over a 32-coin sale, he sat down with me in Prague and explained why Bitcoin is really lagging and why it has almost nothing to do with Bitcoin. "We bought 175,000 Bitcoin this year, which is like 20% of all the Bitcoin ever bought. We sold 32. 32 works out to be two basis points." We cover: - Why Bitcoin is lagging while the S&P prints all-time highs, the "massive AI black hole" pulling capital out of crypto - Why he thinks the money rotates back by Q4 - The 32-BTC sale, the scapegoat dynamic, and why he hasn't sold a sat of his own - Why a 50% drawdown is normal, the 2022 one was 75% - The Apple and Amazon adoption curve, and the "Warren Buffett moment" he says is still coming - What actually happens to Strategy if Bitcoin stalls for 40 years - Why he believes being irrelevant is the only thing worse than being hated Thanks to Michael for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - Intro 00:25 - Bitcoin Is Now Digital Capital 03:30 - Digital Credit, Invented In 12 Months 07:40 - Why Bitcoin Is Lagging The Market 12:15 - The Apple & Amazon Comparison 18:30 - Did Saylor Sell His Bitcoin? 21:00 - We Bought 175,000. We Sold 32. 25:00 - Defending The Credit & The Equity 29:30 - What If Bitcoin Stalls For 40 Years? 33:00 - The Warren Buffett Moment Is Coming 37:00 - Being Hated vs Being Irrelevant

Michaël van de Poppe

473,305 views • 1 month ago

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU
34:04

Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy! 00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode 01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative 01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity 01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure 02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP 02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag 03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver 03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity 03:50 - M2 and asset correlations 04:23 - Why the rich get richer 04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement 05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity 05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling 06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside 06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles 06:56 - Debasement and asset returns 07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns 07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter 08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance 08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history 09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis 09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup 09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns 10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag 11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity 11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost 12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth 12:24 - What assets lead market cycles 12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP 13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis 13:31 - ISM and forward outlook 14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis 14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu 14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake 14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot 15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over 15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth 15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison 16:18 - One of the best setups ever 16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle 17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation 17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat 17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns 18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin 18:29 - Banana Zone phases 18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart 19:09 - Breakouts and corrections 19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC 19:50 - One-way street ahead 20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity 20:31 - Central banks printing 20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles 21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq 21:39 - The Everything Code plays out 22:03 - Business cycle and crypto 22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook 22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K? 23:21 - Altseason and business cycle 23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk 24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve 24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal 25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom 25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes 26:03 - Institutions still not in 26:29 - Indicators signal reversals 26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal 27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster 27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI 28:00 - Sui charts breaking out 28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse 28:50 - $DEEP: top performer 29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement 29:45 - Market reacting to the vision 30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise 30:27 - RSI and breakouts 30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat 31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone 31:30 - No cycle top in sight 31:56 - This is just the beginning 32:19 - Banana Zone map 32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up 33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026 33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU

Raoul Pal

533,748 views • 1 year ago

Full episode with Art of The CMS. This episode with Dan is a good overview of the current (macro) state of the market. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Dan and CMS Holdings 03:00 Current Trends in Crypto Trading and Venture Capital 05:47 The Impact of Lending Market Changes 09:04 Traditional Finance's Role in Crypto 11:52 The State of Crypto Venture Capital 15:03 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's Dominance 18:08 Meme Coins and Market Speculation 21:01 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin's Future 24:00 Self-Custody vs. ETFs in Bitcoin Investment 28:55 Leveraging Bitcoin for Loans 32:05 The Evolution of the Crypto Space 36:01 The Role of Twitter in Crypto 37:45 Market Dynamics and Capital Allocation 41:48 Innovations in Stablecoins 49:27 Navigating Fraud in Crypto Transactions 50:12 The Demand for Stablecoins and Interest Rates 51:16 The Role of Digital Dollars in the Crypto Ecosystem 52:05 Banking Challenges and Interest Distribution 53:08 The Origins of USDC and Historical Context 54:53 The Evolution of Communication in Crypto Trading 56:51 The Leap into Crypto: Early Days and Risks 01:02:42 Founding CMS: A New Venture in Crypto Trading 01:05:32 Navigating Market Crashes and Opportunities 01:08:54 Market Dynamics: The Impact of Recent Events 01:10:55 Health and Lifestyle Changes
1:12:07

Full episode with Art of The CMS. This episode with Dan is a good overview of the current (macro) state of the market. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction to Dan and CMS Holdings 03:00 Current Trends in Crypto Trading and Venture Capital 05:47 The Impact of Lending Market Changes 09:04 Traditional Finance's Role in Crypto 11:52 The State of Crypto Venture Capital 15:03 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's Dominance 18:08 Meme Coins and Market Speculation 21:01 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin's Future 24:00 Self-Custody vs. ETFs in Bitcoin Investment 28:55 Leveraging Bitcoin for Loans 32:05 The Evolution of the Crypto Space 36:01 The Role of Twitter in Crypto 37:45 Market Dynamics and Capital Allocation 41:48 Innovations in Stablecoins 49:27 Navigating Fraud in Crypto Transactions 50:12 The Demand for Stablecoins and Interest Rates 51:16 The Role of Digital Dollars in the Crypto Ecosystem 52:05 Banking Challenges and Interest Distribution 53:08 The Origins of USDC and Historical Context 54:53 The Evolution of Communication in Crypto Trading 56:51 The Leap into Crypto: Early Days and Risks 01:02:42 Founding CMS: A New Venture in Crypto Trading 01:05:32 Navigating Market Crashes and Opportunities 01:08:54 Market Dynamics: The Impact of Recent Events 01:10:55 Health and Lifestyle Changes

tristan yver

50,225 views • 1 year ago

Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The Endgame 00:00 - Intro 01:40 - Brought to you by Binance 02:03 – Where’s Bitcoin Going Next? 03:12 – Cycles, Liquidity, and Investor Flows 05:28 – Tracking Bitcoin’s Capital Flows 07:49 – Macro Liquidity and Bitcoin Cycles 09:46 – Business Cycle Risks for Bitcoin 11:19 – Bitcoin: The Canary in Liquidity 13:11 – Whale Selling and Market Impact 14:35 – Altcoins, ETFs, and Capital Rotation 17:11 – Treasury Companies and Bitcoin Demand 18:08 – Are Bear Markets Inevitable? 19:16 – How Deep Could the Next Dip Be? 21:01 – Macro Catalysts and Bear Market Risks 24:21 – Bitcoin vs. Gold as Safe Haven 27:14 – Willy’s Early Bitcoin Journey 31:06 – Trading, Building, and Future of Bitcoin
47:32

Bitcoin Whales Dumping As Liquidity Crisis Hits | Willy Woo Reveals The Endgame 00:00 - Intro 01:40 - Brought to you by Binance 02:03 – Where’s Bitcoin Going Next? 03:12 – Cycles, Liquidity, and Investor Flows 05:28 – Tracking Bitcoin’s Capital Flows 07:49 – Macro Liquidity and Bitcoin Cycles 09:46 – Business Cycle Risks for Bitcoin 11:19 – Bitcoin: The Canary in Liquidity 13:11 – Whale Selling and Market Impact 14:35 – Altcoins, ETFs, and Capital Rotation 17:11 – Treasury Companies and Bitcoin Demand 18:08 – Are Bear Markets Inevitable? 19:16 – How Deep Could the Next Dip Be? 21:01 – Macro Catalysts and Bear Market Risks 24:21 – Bitcoin vs. Gold as Safe Haven 27:14 – Willy’s Early Bitcoin Journey 31:06 – Trading, Building, and Future of Bitcoin

The Wolf Of All Streets

53,904 views • 10 months ago

2026 Is CRYPTO’S Biggest Year Since 2020 Crypto doesn't always need to be about 100% speculation and guesswork. Understanding this is essential if you're a crypto holder. The U.S. is now borrowing money just to pay the interest on money it already borrowed. Interest payments pass $1T next year. NY Fed basically saying the Treasury market comes first... So: They’ll cut rates. They’ll print money. They’ll change the rules. Whatever it takes to make that debt roll smoothly. Every one of those moves = more liquidity. More liquidity = risk assets go up. Here is the pipeline: QT ends → rate cuts → balance sheet expansion → risk assets Not a halving cycle, but a liquidity cycle. Intro 00:00 The U.S. debt problem 00:30 Why it matters to crypto holders 3:30
7:09

2026 Is CRYPTO’S Biggest Year Since 2020 Crypto doesn't always need to be about 100% speculation and guesswork. Understanding this is essential if you're a crypto holder. The U.S. is now borrowing money just to pay the interest on money it already borrowed. Interest payments pass $1T next year. NY Fed basically saying the Treasury market comes first... So: They’ll cut rates. They’ll print money. They’ll change the rules. Whatever it takes to make that debt roll smoothly. Every one of those moves = more liquidity. More liquidity = risk assets go up. Here is the pipeline: QT ends → rate cuts → balance sheet expansion → risk assets Not a halving cycle, but a liquidity cycle. Intro 00:00 The U.S. debt problem 00:30 Why it matters to crypto holders 3:30

Dan Gambardello

24,384 views • 7 months ago

"The government system is set up whereby it has to continually dilute the currency to keep it going. And that really represents a theft of the earnings and productivity of the middle to lower classes." Lawrence Lepard (Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world") wrote The Big Print. He's spent his career studying monetary debasement and he came on to explain why they can never stop printing, and what that means for Bitcoin at $60K. His call, in his own words: "I think Bitcoin could go up three x in the next two years. Let's say it's 60 round numbers at 60 today. My working model is kind of two years out, we'll be at 180." We cover: - Why in a credit-based system they're trapped: "you have to grow credit and you have to grow the money supply, or else the whole thing collapses" - Why he says the Fed is "gaslighting us" and what they can't admit - Gold ran 67% last year while Bitcoin lagged. Why he thinks that lag gets followed by "severe outperformance" - The scale: Bitcoin at ~$1.3T, gold at ~$30T, ~$1,000T of global financial assets - Why he calls Bitcoin "monetary debasement insurance," not a trade - The 10–20% allocation question, and why he says you'd regret not having it - "The Big Print": the two we've already had, and the one he says is still coming That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest cases I've heard for why the currency has to keep getting diluted. Thanks to Lawrence for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks for OKX Dutch for being our partner for the show. Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:21 – Investing in MicroStrategy: A Contrarian View 10:05 – Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy 20:14 – Bitcoin vs. Gold 24:01 – What’s Causing the Bitcoin Sell-Off? 29:02 – AI, Economic Growth and the Federal Reserve 32:34 – Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Economic Discontent 40:41 – Bitcoin and the Case for Sound Money 43:54 – Could Hyperinflation Become a Reality? 47:50 – Navigating Volatility and Liquidity Crises 55:51 – What Inflation Data Really Tells Us
1:01:24

"The government system is set up whereby it has to continually dilute the currency to keep it going. And that really represents a theft of the earnings and productivity of the middle to lower classes." Lawrence Lepard (Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world") wrote The Big Print. He's spent his career studying monetary debasement and he came on to explain why they can never stop printing, and what that means for Bitcoin at $60K. His call, in his own words: "I think Bitcoin could go up three x in the next two years. Let's say it's 60 round numbers at 60 today. My working model is kind of two years out, we'll be at 180." We cover: - Why in a credit-based system they're trapped: "you have to grow credit and you have to grow the money supply, or else the whole thing collapses" - Why he says the Fed is "gaslighting us" and what they can't admit - Gold ran 67% last year while Bitcoin lagged. Why he thinks that lag gets followed by "severe outperformance" - The scale: Bitcoin at ~$1.3T, gold at ~$30T, ~$1,000T of global financial assets - Why he calls Bitcoin "monetary debasement insurance," not a trade - The 10–20% allocation question, and why he says you'd regret not having it - "The Big Print": the two we've already had, and the one he says is still coming That's his call, not mine, but it's one of the clearest cases I've heard for why the currency has to keep getting diluted. Thanks to Lawrence for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks for OKX Dutch for being our partner for the show. Timestamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:21 – Investing in MicroStrategy: A Contrarian View 10:05 – Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy 20:14 – Bitcoin vs. Gold 24:01 – What’s Causing the Bitcoin Sell-Off? 29:02 – AI, Economic Growth and the Federal Reserve 32:34 – Inflation, Wealth Inequality and Economic Discontent 40:41 – Bitcoin and the Case for Sound Money 43:54 – Could Hyperinflation Become a Reality? 47:50 – Navigating Volatility and Liquidity Crises 55:51 – What Inflation Data Really Tells Us

Michaël van de Poppe

213,295 views • 10 days ago

Surviving the Liquidity Crisis: Everything You Need to Navigate This Cycle w/ Michael Howell CrossBorder Capital Fiscal dominance is real. The Fed isn’t in control anymore; the Treasury is. And that changes everything for crypto, gold, and rates. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 - Intro 01:26 - Is the Liquidity Cycle Over or Just Getting Started? 04:17 - Fiscal Dominance Explained: Why Bond Market Stability Now Trumps Inflation 13:23 - Treasury QE & Monetary Inflation: The Risks No One’s Pricing In 19:15 - Nexo 19:49 - Figure Markets 20:24 - Why Refilling the Treasury General Account Could Trigger a Liquidity Shock & the Role of Stablecoins 26:25 - What Actually Drives Global Liquidity? Balance Sheet Capacity of Credit Providers 31:45 - China’s Massive Liquidity Injection: What It Means for Commodities and Global Markets 35:39 - How U.S. and Chinese Liquidity Policies Are Colliding & What Comes Next 43:00 - The Peak Is Near: Spotting the Liquidity Cycle Top and the $40T Refinancing Wall 46:06 - Positioning for What’s Coming: Inflation Hedges, TIPS, Crypto, and More 48:07 - Final Thoughts & Wrap-Up 49:24 - Hold your value. Hide your moves. Claim your $NIGHT airdrop now!
50:55

Surviving the Liquidity Crisis: Everything You Need to Navigate This Cycle w/ Michael Howell CrossBorder Capital Fiscal dominance is real. The Fed isn’t in control anymore; the Treasury is. And that changes everything for crypto, gold, and rates. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 - Intro 01:26 - Is the Liquidity Cycle Over or Just Getting Started? 04:17 - Fiscal Dominance Explained: Why Bond Market Stability Now Trumps Inflation 13:23 - Treasury QE & Monetary Inflation: The Risks No One’s Pricing In 19:15 - Nexo 19:49 - Figure Markets 20:24 - Why Refilling the Treasury General Account Could Trigger a Liquidity Shock & the Role of Stablecoins 26:25 - What Actually Drives Global Liquidity? Balance Sheet Capacity of Credit Providers 31:45 - China’s Massive Liquidity Injection: What It Means for Commodities and Global Markets 35:39 - How U.S. and Chinese Liquidity Policies Are Colliding & What Comes Next 43:00 - The Peak Is Near: Spotting the Liquidity Cycle Top and the $40T Refinancing Wall 46:06 - Positioning for What’s Coming: Inflation Hedges, TIPS, Crypto, and More 48:07 - Final Thoughts & Wrap-Up 49:24 - Hold your value. Hide your moves. Claim your $NIGHT airdrop now!

Milk Road Macro

12,893 views • 1 year ago

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers
1:22:33

LIVE NOW - The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price: A 65-month global liquidity and debt refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts, and the recent “everything bubble.” He breaks down: - the coming debt maturity wall, - rising repo stress, - the shift from Fed QE to “Treasury QE,” - and a new capital war between a US dollar stablecoin system and China’s gold-backed strategy. Plus, what all of this means for our bags and how to position as the current cycle rolls over. -------------- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:45 Global Liquidity: Theory of Everything? 14:49 Will it Go Up Forever? 24:50 Where Are We in The Cycle? 34:23 Asset Allocation 47:14 Can The Monetary Regime Break? 58:55 China Gold vs US Tech 1:04:29 Crypto & Gold 1:08:03 4-Year Cycles 1:12:40 AI Bubble 1:15:14 Global Liquidity Limitations 1:18:39 Next 3-6 Months 1:20:24 Assets to Hold 1:21:25 Closing & Disclaimers

Bankless

42,363 views • 8 months ago

Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) has been on fire lately with his analysis of markets. In this conversation we talk about a potential bitcoin upside collapse, global liquidity, national debt, bonds, AI, Nvidia, and is the US being quiet about the bitcoin reserve as a strategic move? YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - What is driving bitcoin price higher? 8:42 - Bitcoin upside collapose? 14:33 - Bitcoin correlation to global liquidity, debt, & bonds 21:55 - Expectation for AI & Nvidia earnings 24:59 - Impact of AI on national debt 28:20 - What could be some capital controls? 30:39 - What is a bear case for bitcoin? 32:51 - The right way for US to acquire bitcoin 36:37 - Retail vs institutions
46:57

Jordi Visser (Jordi Visser) has been on fire lately with his analysis of markets. In this conversation we talk about a potential bitcoin upside collapse, global liquidity, national debt, bonds, AI, Nvidia, and is the US being quiet about the bitcoin reserve as a strategic move? YouTube: Spotify: Apple: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:05 - What is driving bitcoin price higher? 8:42 - Bitcoin upside collapose? 14:33 - Bitcoin correlation to global liquidity, debt, & bonds 21:55 - Expectation for AI & Nvidia earnings 24:59 - Impact of AI on national debt 28:20 - What could be some capital controls? 30:39 - What is a bear case for bitcoin? 32:51 - The right way for US to acquire bitcoin 36:37 - Retail vs institutions

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

63,272 views • 1 year ago

"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid
54:26

"Because AI took all the money." Arthur Hayes (Arthur Hayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back. "There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts." We cover: - Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin - Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing - Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months - What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run - Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation" - The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75% - Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason - Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar - "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns Thanks to Arthur for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Highlights: 00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing 08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind 09:32 - "AI Took All The Money" 24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves 30:00 - What He's Hunting Now 33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy 41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled 43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar 45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For 46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid

Michaël van de Poppe

243,720 views • 1 month ago

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."
2:02

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."

Sense Receptor

39,191 views • 1 month ago

"The short term price of Bitcoin is now controlled by Wall Street. And they want your Bitcoin." Simon Dixon (Simon Dixon) spent a decade watching the same institutions that dismissed Bitcoin quietly move to capture it. He came on to explain the plan for the coins you're holding and the one move they can't stop. "They don't want you to self custody it. They want you to borrow against it. They want you to trade perpetual futures." His framework is sovereign vs subordinate: either you hold Bitcoin you can access with no permission from a bank or a broker, or you're in debt to the system for everything you own. We cover: - Why Wall Street now controls Bitcoin's short-term price and what they actually want with your coins - How Bitcoin gets captured: custodians, ETFs, lending products - The unrealized gains tax and how it's used to strip assets - Why he says you cannot vote your way out of this - Where you actually sit on the sovereign vs subordinate spectrum - Why self custody is the one thing they can't touch Thanks to Simon for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks to OKX Dutch for sponsoring this week’s episode of New Era Finance. Make sure to use their 8% Deposit bonus in the comment tweet! Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:33 - Michael Saylor and the Financial Industrial Complex 05:23 - How Wall Street Took Control of Bitcoin 11:14 - Tokenization and Control in the Financial System 16:58 - Unrealized Gains Tax and Asset Stripping 36:50 - Boycotting the FIC and Building Sovereignty 49:44 - Bitcoin: Centralization vs Decentralization 57:46 - The Path to Sovereignty
1:10:44

"The short term price of Bitcoin is now controlled by Wall Street. And they want your Bitcoin." Simon Dixon (Simon Dixon) spent a decade watching the same institutions that dismissed Bitcoin quietly move to capture it. He came on to explain the plan for the coins you're holding and the one move they can't stop. "They don't want you to self custody it. They want you to borrow against it. They want you to trade perpetual futures." His framework is sovereign vs subordinate: either you hold Bitcoin you can access with no permission from a bank or a broker, or you're in debt to the system for everything you own. We cover: - Why Wall Street now controls Bitcoin's short-term price and what they actually want with your coins - How Bitcoin gets captured: custodians, ETFs, lending products - The unrealized gains tax and how it's used to strip assets - Why he says you cannot vote your way out of this - Where you actually sit on the sovereign vs subordinate spectrum - Why self custody is the one thing they can't touch Thanks to Simon for coming on New Era Finance Podcast. Thanks to OKX Dutch for sponsoring this week’s episode of New Era Finance. Make sure to use their 8% Deposit bonus in the comment tweet! Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:33 - Michael Saylor and the Financial Industrial Complex 05:23 - How Wall Street Took Control of Bitcoin 11:14 - Tokenization and Control in the Financial System 16:58 - Unrealized Gains Tax and Asset Stripping 36:50 - Boycotting the FIC and Building Sovereignty 49:44 - Bitcoin: Centralization vs Decentralization 57:46 - The Path to Sovereignty

Michaël van de Poppe

165,063 views • 17 days ago

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.
57:16

The End of the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle — Why the BTC "Capital Cycle" is Next w/ Alex Leishman | Bitcoin Magazine Podcast Ep 15 "Bitcoin is where people park wealth. When they want to start doing things with it, we see cycles. The capital will cycle back — the question is when." Everything lined up for Bitcoin, and then AI sucked the oxygen out of the room. Was this just the typical 4-year cycle in action, or is a new market dynamic taking shape? Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 of River discusses with Brandon on where the capital actually went, and what the future holds for BTC market cycles.

Bitcoin Magazine

19,345 views • 29 days ago

I sat down with CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes to understand why crypto fell off a cliff while Gold hit $5,000. A new episode of New Era Finance Podcast is live: In my conversation with Michael Howell, we go deep into: – why 2026 will NOT be a strong year for Bitcoin – the liquidity cycle that drives every crypto crash – "95% of people don't own assets; they're impoverished" – why China is secretly driving the gold rally – where to buy Bitcoin (hint: below $80K) A must-watch if you're wondering why your portfolio is bleeding and what comes next. Thanks to our sponsor, OKX Dutch! Get up to €100 in Bitcoin for free by signing up to OKX through the link here:
0:45

I sat down with CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes to understand why crypto fell off a cliff while Gold hit $5,000. A new episode of New Era Finance Podcast is live: In my conversation with Michael Howell, we go deep into: – why 2026 will NOT be a strong year for Bitcoin – the liquidity cycle that drives every crypto crash – "95% of people don't own assets; they're impoverished" – why China is secretly driving the gold rally – where to buy Bitcoin (hint: below $80K) A must-watch if you're wondering why your portfolio is bleeding and what comes next. Thanks to our sponsor, OKX Dutch! Get up to €100 in Bitcoin for free by signing up to OKX through the link here:

Michaël van de Poppe

145,244 views • 5 months ago

LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals -- Copper as the next AI bottleneck -- Investing in the commodity supercycle -- Dollar debasement -- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure (0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals (0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks (5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals (8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000 (12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win (13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis (19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (EY) - Liquidity, growth, and what’s next for organizations were front and center at the Summit. EY helps turn liquidity challenges into sustainable value. NYSE (NYSE 🏛) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. Plaud (Plaud) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
24:36

LIQUIDITY: Dan Dreyfus on the Future of Critical Minerals -- Copper as the next AI bottleneck -- Investing in the commodity supercycle -- Dollar debasement -- Blue collar boom, rebuilding American infrastructure (0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals (0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks (5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals (8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000 (12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win (13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis (19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (EY) - Liquidity, growth, and what’s next for organizations were front and center at the Summit. EY helps turn liquidity challenges into sustainable value. NYSE (NYSE 🏛) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. Plaud (Plaud) - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.

The All-In Podcast

158,710 views • 1 month ago

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.
1:06

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.

George Noble

133,892 views • 6 months ago

Are we still in a Crypto Bull Market for Bitcoin and Altcoins? This video will cover what I expect to happen to Bitcoin and Altcoins in the short to mid-term as we head into 2026, and I'll share if I am a buyer or seller at these levels. 02:04 Bitcoin Price Analysis: Entering Bear Trend? 02:46 Why This Bear Won't Be Dramatic (5 Key Reasons) 05:37 Bitcoin Bottom Timeline: Short-Lived Bleed to 60-70K 15:10 Altcoin Cycle: No Extended Altseasons, Short Bursts Only 18:06 Bitcoin vs Altcoin liquidity cycles 23:41 Bitcoin will keep rallying with M2 liquidity 28:19 Altcoins follow ISM, business cycle, and QE liquidity only 41:34 Short-Term Actions: 80% BTC, 20% Alts for trading only 45:29 Current Altcoin opportunities
51:18

Are we still in a Crypto Bull Market for Bitcoin and Altcoins? This video will cover what I expect to happen to Bitcoin and Altcoins in the short to mid-term as we head into 2026, and I'll share if I am a buyer or seller at these levels. 02:04 Bitcoin Price Analysis: Entering Bear Trend? 02:46 Why This Bear Won't Be Dramatic (5 Key Reasons) 05:37 Bitcoin Bottom Timeline: Short-Lived Bleed to 60-70K 15:10 Altcoin Cycle: No Extended Altseasons, Short Bursts Only 18:06 Bitcoin vs Altcoin liquidity cycles 23:41 Bitcoin will keep rallying with M2 liquidity 28:19 Altcoins follow ISM, business cycle, and QE liquidity only 41:34 Short-Term Actions: 80% BTC, 20% Alts for trading only 45:29 Current Altcoin opportunities

VirtualBacon

40,336 views • 7 months ago