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GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is...

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Katie Miller

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A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.
4:23

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

Milk Road AI

67,791 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

ELON: WE’LL BE BUILDING STARSHIPS AT AN ENORMOUS SCALE “We will be making, at some point, probably as many Starships for Mars as Boeing and Airbus make commercial airplanes. So this is really an enormous scale. And each Starship is bigger than a 747 or an A380. It's truly enormous. And then in terms of Starlink satellites, we'll be making on the order of 5,000 a year, maybe at some point closer to 10,000 a year. And those Starlink v3 satellites are each the size of roughly a 737. They're pretty big. That compares to the B24 bomber in World War II. Now it's still small compared to Tesla. It just puts things into perspective that it is actually possible to build a vast number of interplanetary Starships. And even when you can compare things on the tonnage standpoint, Tesla and other car companies are still building far more complex manufactured tonnage than SpaceX. It’s really a way of saying that it's very achievable. These numbers, while they are insanely high by traditional space standards, are achievable by humans because they have been achieved in other industries.” Source: SpaceX Update, May 29, 2025
1:43

ELON: WE’LL BE BUILDING STARSHIPS AT AN ENORMOUS SCALE “We will be making, at some point, probably as many Starships for Mars as Boeing and Airbus make commercial airplanes. So this is really an enormous scale. And each Starship is bigger than a 747 or an A380. It's truly enormous. And then in terms of Starlink satellites, we'll be making on the order of 5,000 a year, maybe at some point closer to 10,000 a year. And those Starlink v3 satellites are each the size of roughly a 737. They're pretty big. That compares to the B24 bomber in World War II. Now it's still small compared to Tesla. It just puts things into perspective that it is actually possible to build a vast number of interplanetary Starships. And even when you can compare things on the tonnage standpoint, Tesla and other car companies are still building far more complex manufactured tonnage than SpaceX. It’s really a way of saying that it's very achievable. These numbers, while they are insanely high by traditional space standards, are achievable by humans because they have been achieved in other industries.” Source: SpaceX Update, May 29, 2025

Mario Nawfal

174,798 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire
2:24

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

KanekoaTheGreat

39,709 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Former Mayor of Nevada City and Former California Governor candidate Reinette Senum says there is a 200% increase in cloud seeding in America coming over the next few years “Most of the cloud seeding programs are happening from the Colorado Rockies all the way west. When a storm is coming in, these pilots, they get hired to make $750 an hour to do this. — So they release the silver iodide as well as a chaff. And it's like a military chaff. It's a aluminum coated glass — and that is for the irrigation districts, that's for the power companies — So that is what's happening for a long time. They denied it saying we don't cloud seed, and then one day like, oh yes, we do cloud seed, but we've been doing it for decades and it's completely proven safe. No, actually has not been proven safe. In fact, we know it's not safe. And by the way, those cloud seeding projects and programs last year, they announced they want like a 200% increase over the next few years of cloud seeding.”
1:23

Former Mayor of Nevada City and Former California Governor candidate Reinette Senum says there is a 200% increase in cloud seeding in America coming over the next few years “Most of the cloud seeding programs are happening from the Colorado Rockies all the way west. When a storm is coming in, these pilots, they get hired to make $750 an hour to do this. — So they release the silver iodide as well as a chaff. And it's like a military chaff. It's a aluminum coated glass — and that is for the irrigation districts, that's for the power companies — So that is what's happening for a long time. They denied it saying we don't cloud seed, and then one day like, oh yes, we do cloud seed, but we've been doing it for decades and it's completely proven safe. No, actually has not been proven safe. In fact, we know it's not safe. And by the way, those cloud seeding projects and programs last year, they announced they want like a 200% increase over the next few years of cloud seeding.”

Wall Street Apes

97,600 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

ELON MUSK: "I do see a path to 100 gigawatts a year of AI powered space solar satellites. If you do a million tons of payload to orbit per year with 100 kilowatts per ton, that's 100 gigawatts of solar powered AI satellites per year. There's a path to get to a terawatt per year, then you want to make those AI satellites on the moon and use a mass driver. We should scale solar substantially in the US. Tesla and SpaceX are scaling solar, and I encourage others to do so as well."
2:34

ELON MUSK: "I do see a path to 100 gigawatts a year of AI powered space solar satellites. If you do a million tons of payload to orbit per year with 100 kilowatts per ton, that's 100 gigawatts of solar powered AI satellites per year. There's a path to get to a terawatt per year, then you want to make those AI satellites on the moon and use a mass driver. We should scale solar substantially in the US. Tesla and SpaceX are scaling solar, and I encourage others to do so as well."

DogeDesigner

975,836 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Atreides' Gavin Baker says that once Starship is reusable, the economics of orbital compute crush the economics of terrestrial compute. He lays out the math: "Once $SPCX can reuse Starship, the math for orbital compute becomes pretty compelling." "It's $60B to bring on a GW terrestrially. $25B is power and cooling — you don't need that in space. And so the right comp for that $35B in IT equipment — GPU, CPU, switches, memory, storage — is that $25B [in power and cooling] vs. the cost of launch." "And once Starship is reusable, I think the cost to launch is $5B. So that means you can put a GW into space for [$40B]. The GW on earth is $60B."
0:53

Atreides' Gavin Baker says that once Starship is reusable, the economics of orbital compute crush the economics of terrestrial compute. He lays out the math: "Once $SPCX can reuse Starship, the math for orbital compute becomes pretty compelling." "It's $60B to bring on a GW terrestrially. $25B is power and cooling — you don't need that in space. And so the right comp for that $35B in IT equipment — GPU, CPU, switches, memory, storage — is that $25B [in power and cooling] vs. the cost of launch." "And once Starship is reusable, I think the cost to launch is $5B. So that means you can put a GW into space for [$40B]. The GW on earth is $60B."

TBPN

102,778 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias: The homeland is in need, because there is a threat. And if sometimes we forget it, others are kind enough—as they did yesterday—to remind us of it. And to remind us of it expressis verbis, very clearly. They do not even imply it; they tell us directly. Since a threat exists, there is also a need. We must bring the Armed Forces to such a level that, as they do today, they can always operate as a deterrent.
0:47

Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias: The homeland is in need, because there is a threat. And if sometimes we forget it, others are kind enough—as they did yesterday—to remind us of it. And to remind us of it expressis verbis, very clearly. They do not even imply it; they tell us directly. Since a threat exists, there is also a need. We must bring the Armed Forces to such a level that, as they do today, they can always operate as a deterrent.

Clash Report

25,950 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 Sam Altman: there's a very important thing happening. I did not expect 3 or 6 months ago to be at this point we're at now” We now have a confirmed reason why OpenAI pulled out of Sora and it was as most of us expected - because they needed to concentrate all of their compute and product capacity into their next generation of models and automated agents. Sam says: "We have a few times in our history realized something really important is working or about to work so well that we have to stop a bunch of other projects. In fact, this was the original thing happened with GPT-3. We had a whole portfolio of bets at the time... we shut down many projects that were working well like robotics... so that we could concentrate our compute, our researchers, our effort into this thing that we said, okay, there's a very important thing happening." "I did not expect 3 or 6 months ago to be at this point we're at now, where something very big and important is about to happen again with this next generation of models and the agents they can power." "We need to concentrate our compute and our product capacity into these next generation of automated researchers and companies... the note under the note is it's about compute. It's always about compute."
1:13

🚨 Sam Altman: there's a very important thing happening. I did not expect 3 or 6 months ago to be at this point we're at now” We now have a confirmed reason why OpenAI pulled out of Sora and it was as most of us expected - because they needed to concentrate all of their compute and product capacity into their next generation of models and automated agents. Sam says: "We have a few times in our history realized something really important is working or about to work so well that we have to stop a bunch of other projects. In fact, this was the original thing happened with GPT-3. We had a whole portfolio of bets at the time... we shut down many projects that were working well like robotics... so that we could concentrate our compute, our researchers, our effort into this thing that we said, okay, there's a very important thing happening." "I did not expect 3 or 6 months ago to be at this point we're at now, where something very big and important is about to happen again with this next generation of models and the agents they can power." "We need to concentrate our compute and our product capacity into these next generation of automated researchers and companies... the note under the note is it's about compute. It's always about compute."

Chris

243,234 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

The Rapid Growth of SpaceX, Starlink, Starshield & Armada: “I am very grateful that SpaceX is an American company.” "Data centers in space is coming, & it makes sense" “5 years ago they hadn’t even launched Starlink—now it’s in 150 countries & it’s continuing to grow every week.” “It’s an unfair advantage that we have with Starshield.” “If the world can get access to SpaceX, I think that’s a good thing.” Dan Wright (Dan Wright), CEO of Armada Elon (Elon Musk) builds long-term advantage, then unleashes it at massive scale: SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla, Neuralink, xAI.. . . . "We started the company working with SpaceX & they’ve continued to be a great partner for us. What that means is that as SpaceX rolls out throughout the world—& most people don’t know 5 years ago they hadn’t even launched Starlink —it’s in 150 countries & it’s continuing to grow every week. We are the first mover when it comes to the infrastructure, & that partnership works really well because we complement the connectivity with the infrastructure & the AI. We always are at the edge. It’s funny, I get messages from our team all the time & it’s like the most crazy places you can imagine. And the edge is gonna continue to get redefined. I get calls literally—I was on the call with somebody and they’re like, “Hey, can we get one of these in Antarctica?” I’m like, “Well yeah, Starlink’s live in Antarctica. No reason why we can’t do that.” Obviously data center in space is the new hotness. Everybody’s talking about it." "Yeah, what’s the deal with that—so are you gonna get these in space?" :They are modular. I mean the edge is continuing—this is actually a debate that we have in terms of how soon it’s going to happen—but it’s definitely going to happen. Data centers in space is coming, and it makes sense, right? If you think about what SpaceX is talking about with Starship going to the moon—you’re going to need compute, especially as you start to think about Optimus robots building bases on the moon, later Mars. You’re going to need large amounts of compute. Not to mention a lot of the things that we do here on Earth, you’re gonna want to do there in space. And it’s a lot more efficient to do it, especially in hostile environments, if you can automate more of that—things like mining, for example. And so you’re gonna see data centers in space, and I’m sure we’re definitely gonna be a part of it. "What do you think about SpaceX’s rumored IPO for 2026?" "I mean, I think SpaceX is an incredible company and they have a ton of value. So I don’t have any insider information here—but I would say, hey, if the world can get access to SpaceX, I think that’s a good thing. Starlink is really amazing in the sense that it just continues to get better so fast. They’re rolling out in new countries every week in major markets. Just as a real recent example, just this last week they launched in South Korea—big market and an important ally for the US, so that’s a big deal. They’re also expanding the types of services that are available. It started as a consumer product, then they brought it to enterprise. Initially that was used more as a backup, and now it’s being used more as a primary—and that is because the service keeps getting better and better as more satellites go up into the sky. Each generation of satellite is also better, not to mention the terminals on the ground. There’s now multiple types of terminals, including the more recent minis that people really like—“Hey, I can put it in a backpack if I go on a hike or if I’m traveling. I can put it on the ski rack of my car.” Perfect internet all the time. All that does for us is it gives us more use cases that we can unlock. Now that you have connectivity on the oil rig, or on a farm, or a ranch—wherever you are—we can apply the AI to those situations on the ground without latency, and then send the metadata back to some other location that they want it. Part of the full-stack approach. And also with Starshield—that’s a huge advantage when you think about some of the conflicts that are going on. People talk to me a lot about this race with China and the geopolitical conflicts around the world. I am very grateful that SpaceX is an American company. I feel like it’s an unfair advantage that we have with Starshield available to the DoD. We want to be the first mover with the infrastructure and the AI to help solve problems at the edge, and the work we’re doing with the Navy is a good example of that."
4:01

The Rapid Growth of SpaceX, Starlink, Starshield & Armada: “I am very grateful that SpaceX is an American company.” "Data centers in space is coming, & it makes sense" “5 years ago they hadn’t even launched Starlink—now it’s in 150 countries & it’s continuing to grow every week.” “It’s an unfair advantage that we have with Starshield.” “If the world can get access to SpaceX, I think that’s a good thing.” Dan Wright (Dan Wright), CEO of Armada Elon (Elon Musk) builds long-term advantage, then unleashes it at massive scale: SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla, Neuralink, xAI.. . . . "We started the company working with SpaceX & they’ve continued to be a great partner for us. What that means is that as SpaceX rolls out throughout the world—& most people don’t know 5 years ago they hadn’t even launched Starlink —it’s in 150 countries & it’s continuing to grow every week. We are the first mover when it comes to the infrastructure, & that partnership works really well because we complement the connectivity with the infrastructure & the AI. We always are at the edge. It’s funny, I get messages from our team all the time & it’s like the most crazy places you can imagine. And the edge is gonna continue to get redefined. I get calls literally—I was on the call with somebody and they’re like, “Hey, can we get one of these in Antarctica?” I’m like, “Well yeah, Starlink’s live in Antarctica. No reason why we can’t do that.” Obviously data center in space is the new hotness. Everybody’s talking about it." "Yeah, what’s the deal with that—so are you gonna get these in space?" :They are modular. I mean the edge is continuing—this is actually a debate that we have in terms of how soon it’s going to happen—but it’s definitely going to happen. Data centers in space is coming, and it makes sense, right? If you think about what SpaceX is talking about with Starship going to the moon—you’re going to need compute, especially as you start to think about Optimus robots building bases on the moon, later Mars. You’re going to need large amounts of compute. Not to mention a lot of the things that we do here on Earth, you’re gonna want to do there in space. And it’s a lot more efficient to do it, especially in hostile environments, if you can automate more of that—things like mining, for example. And so you’re gonna see data centers in space, and I’m sure we’re definitely gonna be a part of it. "What do you think about SpaceX’s rumored IPO for 2026?" "I mean, I think SpaceX is an incredible company and they have a ton of value. So I don’t have any insider information here—but I would say, hey, if the world can get access to SpaceX, I think that’s a good thing. Starlink is really amazing in the sense that it just continues to get better so fast. They’re rolling out in new countries every week in major markets. Just as a real recent example, just this last week they launched in South Korea—big market and an important ally for the US, so that’s a big deal. They’re also expanding the types of services that are available. It started as a consumer product, then they brought it to enterprise. Initially that was used more as a backup, and now it’s being used more as a primary—and that is because the service keeps getting better and better as more satellites go up into the sky. Each generation of satellite is also better, not to mention the terminals on the ground. There’s now multiple types of terminals, including the more recent minis that people really like—“Hey, I can put it in a backpack if I go on a hike or if I’m traveling. I can put it on the ski rack of my car.” Perfect internet all the time. All that does for us is it gives us more use cases that we can unlock. Now that you have connectivity on the oil rig, or on a farm, or a ranch—wherever you are—we can apply the AI to those situations on the ground without latency, and then send the metadata back to some other location that they want it. Part of the full-stack approach. And also with Starshield—that’s a huge advantage when you think about some of the conflicts that are going on. People talk to me a lot about this race with China and the geopolitical conflicts around the world. I am very grateful that SpaceX is an American company. I feel like it’s an unfair advantage that we have with Starshield available to the DoD. We want to be the first mover with the infrastructure and the AI to help solve problems at the edge, and the work we’re doing with the Navy is a good example of that."

Molly O’Shea

30,317 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Here’s Elon Musk explaining that SpaceX could launch up to one terawatt per year of AI compute capacity into Earth orbit — equivalent to the power output of roughly 1,000 nuclear power plants. “The next step beyond Earth data centers is our Earth orbital data centers. And we'll be launching with SpaceX orbital data centers at the 100-to-200-gigawatt-per-year level. Not cumulative, per year. And ultimately, we see a path to maybe launching as much as a terawatt per year of compute from Earth. But what if you want to go beyond a mere terawatt per year? In order to do that, you have to go to the Moon. So by having factories on the Moon, building AI satellites, and having a mass driver, which is the kind of thing you really only learn about in or read about in science fiction, but we're going to make it real. We're actually going to have a mass driver on the Moon. And if you do that, you can go several orders of magnitude greater. You can go to 1,000 gigawatts or more per year and ultimately get to maybe a millionth and then a thousandth and maybe even a few percent of the Sun's energy.” xAI All-Hands, February 10, 2026
1:04

Here’s Elon Musk explaining that SpaceX could launch up to one terawatt per year of AI compute capacity into Earth orbit — equivalent to the power output of roughly 1,000 nuclear power plants. “The next step beyond Earth data centers is our Earth orbital data centers. And we'll be launching with SpaceX orbital data centers at the 100-to-200-gigawatt-per-year level. Not cumulative, per year. And ultimately, we see a path to maybe launching as much as a terawatt per year of compute from Earth. But what if you want to go beyond a mere terawatt per year? In order to do that, you have to go to the Moon. So by having factories on the Moon, building AI satellites, and having a mass driver, which is the kind of thing you really only learn about in or read about in science fiction, but we're going to make it real. We're actually going to have a mass driver on the Moon. And if you do that, you can go several orders of magnitude greater. You can go to 1,000 gigawatts or more per year and ultimately get to maybe a millionth and then a thousandth and maybe even a few percent of the Sun's energy.” xAI All-Hands, February 10, 2026

ELON CLIPS

21,962 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Elon Musk on 𝕏 Spaces tonight: "The biggest opportunity on the moon is to make solar cells and radiators, and then, you're manufacturing on the moon anything that weighs a lot, chips maybe still come from Earth, they weigh very little. And then you can use a mass driver to put a billion tons of AI powered satellites into orbit per year. You could set a scale to 100 terawatts of AI compute per year from the moon. We already have 9000 satellites in orbit. So we know what it's like being in space."
2:31

Elon Musk on 𝕏 Spaces tonight: "The biggest opportunity on the moon is to make solar cells and radiators, and then, you're manufacturing on the moon anything that weighs a lot, chips maybe still come from Earth, they weigh very little. And then you can use a mass driver to put a billion tons of AI powered satellites into orbit per year. You could set a scale to 100 terawatts of AI compute per year from the moon. We already have 9000 satellites in orbit. So we know what it's like being in space."

DogeDesigner

241,096 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Starlink deployment is running ahead of its record-setting 2025 pace SpaceX deployed 1,589 Starlink satellites during the first half of 2026 That is 100 more than the 1,489 satellites deployed during the same period in 2025...a year that already set a new record Nearly 11,000 Starlink satellites are now functioning in orbit SpaceX is mass-producing orbital internet infrastructure at an unprecedented pace And with Starship preparing to carry next-generation V3 Starlink satellites, the next phase is going to be even bigger
0:30

Starlink deployment is running ahead of its record-setting 2025 pace SpaceX deployed 1,589 Starlink satellites during the first half of 2026 That is 100 more than the 1,489 satellites deployed during the same period in 2025...a year that already set a new record Nearly 11,000 Starlink satellites are now functioning in orbit SpaceX is mass-producing orbital internet infrastructure at an unprecedented pace And with Starship preparing to carry next-generation V3 Starlink satellites, the next phase is going to be even bigger

X Freeze

76,809 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

Bill Ackman reveals the exact difference between valuing a stock and valuing a bond that most people never learn "A bond pays a 5% coupon interest rate. You get that every year, and it's very predictable. If it's a US Government Bond, you know you're going to get it. That's a pretty easy thing to value" "A stock is an interest in a business. It's like owning a piece of a company. A profitable business is like a bond in that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow every year" "The difference is that a bond is a contract. You know what you're going to get. With a stock, you have to make predictions about the business" "How many widgets are they going to sell this year? How many next year? What are their costs going to be? How much money do they need to reinvest to keep the business going?" "What we do is try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence we know what those cash flows are going to be for a very long time. There are very few businesses you can have a really high degree of certainty about. Many investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future"
1:26

Bill Ackman reveals the exact difference between valuing a stock and valuing a bond that most people never learn "A bond pays a 5% coupon interest rate. You get that every year, and it's very predictable. If it's a US Government Bond, you know you're going to get it. That's a pretty easy thing to value" "A stock is an interest in a business. It's like owning a piece of a company. A profitable business is like a bond in that it generates these coupons or these earnings or cash flow every year" "The difference is that a bond is a contract. You know what you're going to get. With a stock, you have to make predictions about the business" "How many widgets are they going to sell this year? How many next year? What are their costs going to be? How much money do they need to reinvest to keep the business going?" "What we do is try to find businesses where with a very high degree of confidence we know what those cash flows are going to be for a very long time. There are very few businesses you can have a really high degree of certainty about. Many investments are speculations because it's really very difficult to predict the future"

Jaynit

160,132 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Elon Musk just explained why the SpaceX IPO is an energy story and the energy constraint is why he believes space becomes the only viable path for AI to scale (Save this). The argument he is making is one of the most important and least understood things happening in technology right now. The United States currently consumes roughly 500 gigawatts of electricity on average. To double that capacity which is what continued AI expansion on the current terrestrial trajectory would eventually require would mean building as many power plants as currently exist in the entire country. He is not arguing that this is technically impossible, just that communities are not willing to accept it, that permitting timelines make it unrealistic, and that the hard ceiling on Earth based power generation means the expansion of AI compute will eventually hit a wall that no amount of capital can overcome on the ground. His observation is that in space, that wall does not exist. A solar panel in orbit produces roughly five times more power than the same panel on Earth, operates in continuous sunlight uninterrupted by weather or nighttime, and benefits from the vacuum of space as a completely passive cooling system meaning the two largest operating costs of any terrestrial data center, energy and cooling, are effectively eliminated. He then said that you could theoretically increase harnessed energy by a factor of one million and still be using less than a millionth of the sun's total energy output. This is the underlying physics of why SpaceX filed with the FCC to launch up to one million solar powered AI satellites, and why they described that constellation in their own filing as a first step toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization capable of harnessing the full power of the sun. To understand what makes this credible rather than visionary, you need to understand what SpaceX already controls that no other company on earth possesses. Starship, once operating at full cadence, can deliver 100 to 150 tons of payload to orbit per launch, at a target cost per kilogram that is an order of magnitude lower than any existing vehicle. Musk's stated ambition is to scale Starship to 10,000 to 30,000 launches per year, a frequency that would allow the deployment of orbital compute infrastructure at a pace that is currently unimaginable with any existing rocket. He told xAI staff earlier this year that achieving space-based AI at scale will eventually require manufacturing facilities on the moon, building solar panels and heat dissipation structures from lunar silicon and aluminum, and launching them into orbit from there rather than from Earth's surface because the moon's lower gravity makes the economics of launch dramatically more favorable. SpaceX's S-1 filing explicitly states that its launch capabilities could enable massive AI compute satellite constellations with the potential for millions of satellites for orbital data centers, with the first launch potentially occurring as soon as 2028. Google and Alphabet are already in advanced talks with SpaceX about deploying space-based data centers. Starcloud, a startup running Nvidia H100 GPUs in orbit, has already validated that high-performance AI inference workloads can operate in space, with plans to scale to five gigawatts of orbital compute power by 2035. This is why Musk believes the cost crossover happens in two to three years because SpaceX's launch cost trajectory intersects with the accelerating energy constraint on the ground in a way that makes space genuinely cheaper, faster, and less regulated at exactly the moment AI demand is hitting its hardest physical limits.
1:01

Elon Musk just explained why the SpaceX IPO is an energy story and the energy constraint is why he believes space becomes the only viable path for AI to scale (Save this). The argument he is making is one of the most important and least understood things happening in technology right now. The United States currently consumes roughly 500 gigawatts of electricity on average. To double that capacity which is what continued AI expansion on the current terrestrial trajectory would eventually require would mean building as many power plants as currently exist in the entire country. He is not arguing that this is technically impossible, just that communities are not willing to accept it, that permitting timelines make it unrealistic, and that the hard ceiling on Earth based power generation means the expansion of AI compute will eventually hit a wall that no amount of capital can overcome on the ground. His observation is that in space, that wall does not exist. A solar panel in orbit produces roughly five times more power than the same panel on Earth, operates in continuous sunlight uninterrupted by weather or nighttime, and benefits from the vacuum of space as a completely passive cooling system meaning the two largest operating costs of any terrestrial data center, energy and cooling, are effectively eliminated. He then said that you could theoretically increase harnessed energy by a factor of one million and still be using less than a millionth of the sun's total energy output. This is the underlying physics of why SpaceX filed with the FCC to launch up to one million solar powered AI satellites, and why they described that constellation in their own filing as a first step toward becoming a Kardashev Type II civilization capable of harnessing the full power of the sun. To understand what makes this credible rather than visionary, you need to understand what SpaceX already controls that no other company on earth possesses. Starship, once operating at full cadence, can deliver 100 to 150 tons of payload to orbit per launch, at a target cost per kilogram that is an order of magnitude lower than any existing vehicle. Musk's stated ambition is to scale Starship to 10,000 to 30,000 launches per year, a frequency that would allow the deployment of orbital compute infrastructure at a pace that is currently unimaginable with any existing rocket. He told xAI staff earlier this year that achieving space-based AI at scale will eventually require manufacturing facilities on the moon, building solar panels and heat dissipation structures from lunar silicon and aluminum, and launching them into orbit from there rather than from Earth's surface because the moon's lower gravity makes the economics of launch dramatically more favorable. SpaceX's S-1 filing explicitly states that its launch capabilities could enable massive AI compute satellite constellations with the potential for millions of satellites for orbital data centers, with the first launch potentially occurring as soon as 2028. Google and Alphabet are already in advanced talks with SpaceX about deploying space-based data centers. Starcloud, a startup running Nvidia H100 GPUs in orbit, has already validated that high-performance AI inference workloads can operate in space, with plans to scale to five gigawatts of orbital compute power by 2035. This is why Musk believes the cost crossover happens in two to three years because SpaceX's launch cost trajectory intersects with the accelerating energy constraint on the ground in a way that makes space genuinely cheaper, faster, and less regulated at exactly the moment AI demand is hitting its hardest physical limits.

Milk Road AI

12,140 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 Bank of America believes investors should look at SpaceX as much more than a launch company Its long-term thesis includes Starship, Starlink, Starshield, and future orbital compute, with each business building on the last. The firm argues that Starship is the key technology that could unlock entirely new industries over the next decade. $SPCX
4:00

🚨 Bank of America believes investors should look at SpaceX as much more than a launch company Its long-term thesis includes Starship, Starlink, Starshield, and future orbital compute, with each business building on the last. The firm argues that Starship is the key technology that could unlock entirely new industries over the next decade. $SPCX

Herbert Ong

24,767 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

$RKLB New Peter Beck interview today on Bloomberg: Does SpaceX's dominance threaten Rocket Lab? "No, I don't think so. The reality is SpaceX is a space company, but also very much an AI company and a bunch of other things as well. Rocket Lab is a very squarely focused pure play space company. I think it draws investors into the sector. And when they go looking, Rocket Lab is really the clear number two with respect to launch frequency and those kinds of things. So no, I'm not too worried about that.” "So do you find yourself complementary to SpaceX? Or are you in direct competition with Elon Musk?" "In some cases we are in direct competition, but also very complementary. We are an end-to-end space company. We're the second most frequently launched US rocket in the world behind SpaceX, so the rocket bit is competitive. But two-thirds of our business is building satellites and spacecraft and supplying components to the rest of the space industry. So in that sense, not really a competitor at all."
1:13

$RKLB New Peter Beck interview today on Bloomberg: Does SpaceX's dominance threaten Rocket Lab? "No, I don't think so. The reality is SpaceX is a space company, but also very much an AI company and a bunch of other things as well. Rocket Lab is a very squarely focused pure play space company. I think it draws investors into the sector. And when they go looking, Rocket Lab is really the clear number two with respect to launch frequency and those kinds of things. So no, I'm not too worried about that.” "So do you find yourself complementary to SpaceX? Or are you in direct competition with Elon Musk?" "In some cases we are in direct competition, but also very complementary. We are an end-to-end space company. We're the second most frequently launched US rocket in the world behind SpaceX, so the rocket bit is competitive. But two-thirds of our business is building satellites and spacecraft and supplying components to the rest of the space industry. So in that sense, not really a competitor at all."

ValueOverPrice

48,871 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

In our last conversation, Gavin said data centers in space will be the most important thing in 3-4 years. He explains that means "racks in space" and thinks orbital compute will solve the watts shortage: "When people hear data centers in space, they picture a Pentagon-sized building in space. That's not what it is. A Blackwell rack weighs 3,000 pounds. It's eight feet high. Four feet deep. Three feet wide. It's racks in space. It has these solar wings that are probably 500 feet long on each side. You keep it in a Sun-synchronous orbit, so those solar panels are always in the sun. And then because it's in an exactly Sun-synchronous orbit, the radiator, which extends behind it for hundreds of feet is in the shade. You link these racks using lasers traveling through vacuum which are already on every Starlink. SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet, which is 98 or 99% of all satellites in orbit. Every Starlink, they're cooling it today. I think Starlink V3 is going to operate at 20 kilowatts. A Blackwell rack is only 100 kilowatts. And people talk a lot about density. Well, if you're connecting the racks with lasers through vacuum, you can make the rack bigger physically. In space, there's all sorts of things that SpaceX can do. They also now operate the largest data center on Earth. I've spent a lot of time at Starbase over the years, and I've talked to a lot of SpaceX engineers. It is the most talented group of engineers on planet Earth, and they're very confident they have solved this."
2:30

In our last conversation, Gavin said data centers in space will be the most important thing in 3-4 years. He explains that means "racks in space" and thinks orbital compute will solve the watts shortage: "When people hear data centers in space, they picture a Pentagon-sized building in space. That's not what it is. A Blackwell rack weighs 3,000 pounds. It's eight feet high. Four feet deep. Three feet wide. It's racks in space. It has these solar wings that are probably 500 feet long on each side. You keep it in a Sun-synchronous orbit, so those solar panels are always in the sun. And then because it's in an exactly Sun-synchronous orbit, the radiator, which extends behind it for hundreds of feet is in the shade. You link these racks using lasers traveling through vacuum which are already on every Starlink. SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite fleet, which is 98 or 99% of all satellites in orbit. Every Starlink, they're cooling it today. I think Starlink V3 is going to operate at 20 kilowatts. A Blackwell rack is only 100 kilowatts. And people talk a lot about density. Well, if you're connecting the racks with lasers through vacuum, you can make the rack bigger physically. In space, there's all sorts of things that SpaceX can do. They also now operate the largest data center on Earth. I've spent a lot of time at Starbase over the years, and I've talked to a lot of SpaceX engineers. It is the most talented group of engineers on planet Earth, and they're very confident they have solved this."

Patrick OShaughnessy

267,946 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$PLTR PALANTIR WENT PUBLIC 5 YEARS AGO TODAY. They did a direct public offering at $10 a share. The company's market capitalization has 18x'ed since going public. CEO Alex Karp, 5 years ago: "We are going to deliver the world's best software with the world's most efficient way of delivering it. Investors will decide what's that worth and I think you'll find in a number of years that there will be a consensus Palantir is a truly special software company that is arguably the most important software company in the world."
5:10

$PLTR PALANTIR WENT PUBLIC 5 YEARS AGO TODAY. They did a direct public offering at $10 a share. The company's market capitalization has 18x'ed since going public. CEO Alex Karp, 5 years ago: "We are going to deliver the world's best software with the world's most efficient way of delivering it. Investors will decide what's that worth and I think you'll find in a number of years that there will be a consensus Palantir is a truly special software company that is arguably the most important software company in the world."

amit

400,926 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Salazar: Remember, they're just starting in the job… Let's see how they do the next two years. And then we can judge them. But not because of one mistake that they put a reporter. Maybe they made a mistake and they put that. I mean, listen, those who do not have any sins, they can throw the first stone.
0:29

Salazar: Remember, they're just starting in the job… Let's see how they do the next two years. And then we can judge them. But not because of one mistake that they put a reporter. Maybe they made a mistake and they put that. I mean, listen, those who do not have any sins, they can throw the first stone.

Acyn

331,675 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

SpaceX successfully simulated the deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites during Starship V3’s first flight. Starship V3 can hold up to 60 of these satellites. Each Starlink V3 satellite offers 1 Tbps of downlink capacity. That means a single Starship launch can add up to 60 Tbps of total downlink capacity to the network, more than 20x what a Falcon 9 delivers today with V2 satellites. Insane scale. V3 will also enable 5G high-bandwidth direct-to-cell connectivity anywhere in the world. This would only be possible with Starship. 🦾
0:23

SpaceX successfully simulated the deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites during Starship V3’s first flight. Starship V3 can hold up to 60 of these satellites. Each Starlink V3 satellite offers 1 Tbps of downlink capacity. That means a single Starship launch can add up to 60 Tbps of total downlink capacity to the network, more than 20x what a Falcon 9 delivers today with V2 satellites. Insane scale. V3 will also enable 5G high-bandwidth direct-to-cell connectivity anywhere in the world. This would only be possible with Starship. 🦾

Nic Cruz Patane

296,153 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten