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David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth...

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KanekoaTheGreat

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Brad Gerstner breaks down SpaceX’s massive $1.4 trillion valuation: "I thought his guides were extraordinary... $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, and he pulled forward the $1 trillion in ARR by a year, from 2031 to 2030." "The market has questions about a few things." "Are you going to use the compute to build your own frontier model or rent it out? And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to offtake that compute?" "He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how he's going to finance that." "I think the frontier model is the sleeper. I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July. That doesn't include Cursor. Cursor was already on the path to go from $3 billion to $10 billion by EOY. Cursor + Grok could be at $10 to $20 billion by EOY." "We haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do with running the table on mobile." Elon Musk Brad Gerstner The All-In Podcast
2:32

Brad Gerstner breaks down SpaceX’s massive $1.4 trillion valuation: "I thought his guides were extraordinary... $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, and he pulled forward the $1 trillion in ARR by a year, from 2031 to 2030." "The market has questions about a few things." "Are you going to use the compute to build your own frontier model or rent it out? And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to offtake that compute?" "He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how he's going to finance that." "I think the frontier model is the sleeper. I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July. That doesn't include Cursor. Cursor was already on the path to go from $3 billion to $10 billion by EOY. Cursor + Grok could be at $10 to $20 billion by EOY." "We haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do with running the table on mobile." Elon Musk Brad Gerstner The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

59,930 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."
3:01

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

dnap

43,531 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy
3:19

Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessy

KanekoaTheGreat

44,731 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

David Friedberg: Starlink alone could be a trillion-dollar company "Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40 billion of revenue top line, with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be $30 billion in free cash flow within the year." "That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing. And if you just put a 30x multiple on that, which I think you can, because these subscription businesses have very high renewal rates and very low customer acquisition costs (CAC)." "The Starlink business alone could be a trillion-dollar market cap within 18 months. That alone funds all the rest of this." "You can see it in AT&T, Verizon, HughesNet, and Viasat... That market got decimated by Starlink." "If he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is going to go. Right now, he's adding 2 million subscribers on the consumer side per quarter. You could see that going to 4 to 5 million a quarter. You could actually see an acceleration. There are 400 million mobile subs just in the U.S." "And the rest of it is like, is Elon going to do well with the excess capital that's spinning out of Starlink? Well, I don't know who else I would give it to, considering what he's doing with Starship, AI compute, and the Terafab." Elon Musk david friedberg The All-In Podcast
3:19

David Friedberg: Starlink alone could be a trillion-dollar company "Starlink alone could be generating on the order of $40 billion of revenue top line, with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be $30 billion in free cash flow within the year." "That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what Elon is doing. And if you just put a 30x multiple on that, which I think you can, because these subscription businesses have very high renewal rates and very low customer acquisition costs (CAC)." "The Starlink business alone could be a trillion-dollar market cap within 18 months. That alone funds all the rest of this." "You can see it in AT&T, Verizon, HughesNet, and Viasat... That market got decimated by Starlink." "If he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is going to go. Right now, he's adding 2 million subscribers on the consumer side per quarter. You could see that going to 4 to 5 million a quarter. You could actually see an acceleration. There are 400 million mobile subs just in the U.S." "And the rest of it is like, is Elon going to do well with the excess capital that's spinning out of Starlink? Well, I don't know who else I would give it to, considering what he's doing with Starship, AI compute, and the Terafab." Elon Musk david friedberg The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

464,694 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire
2:24

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

KanekoaTheGreat

39,709 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”
1:01

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

DogeDesigner

30,997 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
11:29

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

771,173 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

SpaceX employee #13 Eric Romo: "The idea that launch prices are going to fall significantly in the next 5 years is nonsense." "There are an awful lot of business models that are predicated on 'when Starship allows me to launch for $200 a kilogram…'" "I think they’re all broken, and all those companies are going to fail." "We’ve seen this play out already with Falcon 9 and the pricing around it, where the costs of Falcon 9 allowed SpaceX to deliver the Starlink constellation at a cost per CapEx that made them profitable." "But they set the price in the market at something that just barely made it an okay investment to think about OneWeb or Kuiper or anything like that." "They’re going to do the same thing on Starship, because why wouldn’t they?" "Their internal costs on Starship are going to be whatever they need to be to deploy Starlink and orbital data centers, but they’re going to set the price so that anybody trying to do comms, anybody trying to do orbital data centers—the price is going to be too high." "If you’re a third party relying on them for a lower price of access to space, I think you’re hosed." Elon Musk Recorded at NYSE 🏛 x Payload 🚀 Space Summit
2:01

SpaceX employee #13 Eric Romo: "The idea that launch prices are going to fall significantly in the next 5 years is nonsense." "There are an awful lot of business models that are predicated on 'when Starship allows me to launch for $200 a kilogram…'" "I think they’re all broken, and all those companies are going to fail." "We’ve seen this play out already with Falcon 9 and the pricing around it, where the costs of Falcon 9 allowed SpaceX to deliver the Starlink constellation at a cost per CapEx that made them profitable." "But they set the price in the market at something that just barely made it an okay investment to think about OneWeb or Kuiper or anything like that." "They’re going to do the same thing on Starship, because why wouldn’t they?" "Their internal costs on Starship are going to be whatever they need to be to deploy Starlink and orbital data centers, but they’re going to set the price so that anybody trying to do comms, anybody trying to do orbital data centers—the price is going to be too high." "If you’re a third party relying on them for a lower price of access to space, I think you’re hosed." Elon Musk Recorded at NYSE 🏛 x Payload 🚀 Space Summit

sourcery

120,603 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.
4:23

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

Milk Road AI

67,868 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

David Sacks says Anthropic is creating the most powerful monopoly of all time "I remember last year when I hit them for regulatory capture, people were like, 'why are you beating up on this little startup?' I'm like, 'because I can see where it's going.'" "They are creating the biggest, most powerful monopoly of all time. Again, they're going to end the year with over 100 billion of ARR growing 10x year over year." "Google is at 400 and something billion of ARR growing 20%. So if this rate of growth continues for just a year or even six months or just a few months, Anthropic is going to be maybe the most valuable tech company." "The labs are reporting a number of examples of how they are using their own frontier intelligence to improve their own models and the efficiency of those models. So there is a powerful self reinforcing feedback loop here."
1:16

David Sacks says Anthropic is creating the most powerful monopoly of all time "I remember last year when I hit them for regulatory capture, people were like, 'why are you beating up on this little startup?' I'm like, 'because I can see where it's going.'" "They are creating the biggest, most powerful monopoly of all time. Again, they're going to end the year with over 100 billion of ARR growing 10x year over year." "Google is at 400 and something billion of ARR growing 20%. So if this rate of growth continues for just a year or even six months or just a few months, Anthropic is going to be maybe the most valuable tech company." "The labs are reporting a number of examples of how they are using their own frontier intelligence to improve their own models and the efficiency of those models. So there is a powerful self reinforcing feedback loop here."

dnap

116,202 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

Peter Diamandis: SpaceX has the potential to become the world’s first $10 trillion company “Well, if anybody can do it, Elon can. I think this has the potential to really be the first $10 trillion company out there and growing. He’s building civilizational-level infrastructure. The challenge is, I don’t think the market knows how to value this company. It’s not a company, it’s really four different businesses wrapped into one vertical, and you have to look at each individually. “The first business is global communications with Starlink. Starlink is going to deliver global gigabit connectivity to the entire planet, billions of individuals. They’re just making a dent right now. Then they’re going direct satellite-to-cell phone. As Gwynne said on the earnings call yesterday, that’s a $600 billion level of revenue potential, and they expect to take a chunk of that. “The second business is delivering AI compute. They’ve already signed up $20 billion in annualized revenue, and they’re building faster than anybody else. They announced two gigawatts of compute by the end of this year and are shooting for upwards of 10 gigawatts next year… Elon said they’re launching their first AI satellites in partnership with Nvidia in 2027, much faster than anybody thought.”
2:32

Peter Diamandis: SpaceX has the potential to become the world’s first $10 trillion company “Well, if anybody can do it, Elon can. I think this has the potential to really be the first $10 trillion company out there and growing. He’s building civilizational-level infrastructure. The challenge is, I don’t think the market knows how to value this company. It’s not a company, it’s really four different businesses wrapped into one vertical, and you have to look at each individually. “The first business is global communications with Starlink. Starlink is going to deliver global gigabit connectivity to the entire planet, billions of individuals. They’re just making a dent right now. Then they’re going direct satellite-to-cell phone. As Gwynne said on the earnings call yesterday, that’s a $600 billion level of revenue potential, and they expect to take a chunk of that. “The second business is delivering AI compute. They’ve already signed up $20 billion in annualized revenue, and they’re building faster than anybody else. They announced two gigawatts of compute by the end of this year and are shooting for upwards of 10 gigawatts next year… Elon said they’re launching their first AI satellites in partnership with Nvidia in 2027, much faster than anybody thought.”

DogeDesigner

47,675 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

.The All-In Podcast discusses VP Kamala Harris's $42 billion broadband plan, which failed to connect a SINGLE person, home, or business to the internet in three years. President Biden put her in charge of the initiative, but after going after Elon Musk, they scrapped a $1,300-per-location deal with Starlink. Now, they're wasting over $100K per location on inefficient government programs. David Sacks: "It's government waste, fraud, and abuse, where they've allocated $42 billion for rural internet, haven't hooked anyone up, and we could spend a fraction of that giving people Starlink... It's pure naked political retaliation. The Biden-Harris admin doesn't want to admit that Elon has the best solution for rural internet, just like they couldn't admit he makes the best electric cars. Remember when they did that EV summit, and they didn't even invite him?" Chamath Palihapitiya: "Do we want to live in the kind of administrative state where they will pick people that they dislike based on total random criteria—a tweet, a meme, a post—and all of a sudden punish the rest of us because of that? They are punishing all of America because they collect our taxes to waste on it, and then they punish the people they say they will uplift by not delivering what they promise." David Sacks: "The objective of the party is to punish its political opponents, to engage in retaliation, and to basically loot the public coffers as much as possible on behalf of their donors. It's completely dysfunctional, and no one really cares because the media doesn't shine a light on it because they are completely tribalized."
13:26

.The All-In Podcast discusses VP Kamala Harris's $42 billion broadband plan, which failed to connect a SINGLE person, home, or business to the internet in three years. President Biden put her in charge of the initiative, but after going after Elon Musk, they scrapped a $1,300-per-location deal with Starlink. Now, they're wasting over $100K per location on inefficient government programs. David Sacks: "It's government waste, fraud, and abuse, where they've allocated $42 billion for rural internet, haven't hooked anyone up, and we could spend a fraction of that giving people Starlink... It's pure naked political retaliation. The Biden-Harris admin doesn't want to admit that Elon has the best solution for rural internet, just like they couldn't admit he makes the best electric cars. Remember when they did that EV summit, and they didn't even invite him?" Chamath Palihapitiya: "Do we want to live in the kind of administrative state where they will pick people that they dislike based on total random criteria—a tweet, a meme, a post—and all of a sudden punish the rest of us because of that? They are punishing all of America because they collect our taxes to waste on it, and then they punish the people they say they will uplift by not delivering what they promise." David Sacks: "The objective of the party is to punish its political opponents, to engage in retaliation, and to basically loot the public coffers as much as possible on behalf of their donors. It's completely dysfunctional, and no one really cares because the media doesn't shine a light on it because they are completely tribalized."

KanekoaTheGreat

12,566,216 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

David Sacks giving Starlink V3 math the attention it deserves. Each Starship is the equivalent of 20 F9 launches of bandwidth. Elon estimated that they get up 1,000 V3 by Q2 (not one of his aggressive estimates) which would more the double the total global Starlink bandwidth in less than a year. Our modeling suggests they will be able to put up to 4,000s V3 sats by EoY 2027. Global bandwidth from orbit could very well be 5x what it is today within 18 months. This is a cash generating business that will handle a lot of their data center build out. All of Brad’s points on handwringing around compute financing become far easier to understand in that light.
1:26

David Sacks giving Starlink V3 math the attention it deserves. Each Starship is the equivalent of 20 F9 launches of bandwidth. Elon estimated that they get up 1,000 V3 by Q2 (not one of his aggressive estimates) which would more the double the total global Starlink bandwidth in less than a year. Our modeling suggests they will be able to put up to 4,000s V3 sats by EoY 2027. Global bandwidth from orbit could very well be 5x what it is today within 18 months. This is a cash generating business that will handle a lot of their data center build out. All of Brad’s points on handwringing around compute financing become far easier to understand in that light.

Aaron Burnett

53,563 Aufrufe • vor 3 Tagen

Elon Musk announced a chip factory 10 times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory. The goal is to produce enough AI compute to equal twice the entire electricity consumption of the United States. He called it the Terafab. Here is the number that stopped me cold. The entire global AI chip industry right now is on track to hit around 100 gigawatts per year of compute. Every Nvidia GPU, every Google TPU, every chip from every company on earth combined. 100 gigawatts. Musk wants one factory to produce a terawatt per year. A terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts. Ten times the output of the entire global industry. From a single building. To put the scale in physical terms, the Terafab would need to be around 100 million square feet. You would need Starship point to point transport just to get from one end to the other. But the reason for the scale is not ambition for its own sake. To launch meaningful AI compute into space, you need a billion chips per year running at a kilowatt each. That is not a number the current industry can produce. The Terafab is the only way to get there. The timeline he put out: a gigawatt of space AI compute annualized by end of next year. Then 10x per year from there. 10 gigawatts by year two. 100 gigawatts by year three. A terawatt beyond that. Most people think orbital data centers are a decade away. Musk is building the factory to make them possible by next year.
3:26

Elon Musk announced a chip factory 10 times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory. The goal is to produce enough AI compute to equal twice the entire electricity consumption of the United States. He called it the Terafab. Here is the number that stopped me cold. The entire global AI chip industry right now is on track to hit around 100 gigawatts per year of compute. Every Nvidia GPU, every Google TPU, every chip from every company on earth combined. 100 gigawatts. Musk wants one factory to produce a terawatt per year. A terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts. Ten times the output of the entire global industry. From a single building. To put the scale in physical terms, the Terafab would need to be around 100 million square feet. You would need Starship point to point transport just to get from one end to the other. But the reason for the scale is not ambition for its own sake. To launch meaningful AI compute into space, you need a billion chips per year running at a kilowatt each. That is not a number the current industry can produce. The Terafab is the only way to get there. The timeline he put out: a gigawatt of space AI compute annualized by end of next year. Then 10x per year from there. 10 gigawatts by year two. 100 gigawatts by year three. A terawatt beyond that. Most people think orbital data centers are a decade away. Musk is building the factory to make them possible by next year.

Ihtesham Ali

316,910 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”
1:08

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

Katie Miller

234,626 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

ELON: SPACEX WON A GOVERNMENT INTERNET ACCESS CONTRACT, BUT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION REVOKED IT - WHY!? “They had this $42 billion [program for Internet access], and [SpaceX] competed, and we won, and we would have actually been able to supply a lot of Starlink terminals to the states that were affected by the hurricanes. And they revoked the award. It's messed up. Why!? To date, for that 42 billion program, the total number of citizens that have received broadband from that $42 billion allocation is zero. Forty-two billion dollars for zero. I would call that waste. That is not a good use of money. There was also a big government initiative, I think $7 billion, or something like that, for a nationwide network of electric superchargers. I think they made like 10. This is the most egregious waste of money. There are so many situations like that. It just goes to bureaucrats and consultants, and nothing gets done. And it's wasting your money, which is crazy. The opportunity to reduce government waste is actually, I think, easy, because there's so much of it. They just don't care about your money, which is messed up. So, I think the Department of Government Efficiency is going to face a target-rich environment for reducing cost.” Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, October 19, 2024
1:33

ELON: SPACEX WON A GOVERNMENT INTERNET ACCESS CONTRACT, BUT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION REVOKED IT - WHY!? “They had this $42 billion [program for Internet access], and [SpaceX] competed, and we won, and we would have actually been able to supply a lot of Starlink terminals to the states that were affected by the hurricanes. And they revoked the award. It's messed up. Why!? To date, for that 42 billion program, the total number of citizens that have received broadband from that $42 billion allocation is zero. Forty-two billion dollars for zero. I would call that waste. That is not a good use of money. There was also a big government initiative, I think $7 billion, or something like that, for a nationwide network of electric superchargers. I think they made like 10. This is the most egregious waste of money. There are so many situations like that. It just goes to bureaucrats and consultants, and nothing gets done. And it's wasting your money, which is crazy. The opportunity to reduce government waste is actually, I think, easy, because there's so much of it. They just don't care about your money, which is messed up. So, I think the Department of Government Efficiency is going to face a target-rich environment for reducing cost.” Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, October 19, 2024

Mario Nawfal

209,285 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

NEW - David Sacks Exposes Real Reason Swamp Dems Are Hysterical About Musk’s DOGE Cuts | “Then it hit me, they actually have come to believe that this taxpayer money is theirs and by returning it to the Treasury, Elon is stealing from them.” David Sacks just nailed the swamp’s meltdown over Elon Musk and DOGE, arguing they’re raging because they see taxpayer cash as their personal piggy bank—not the American voter’s. David Sacks laid it all out: “I was at the State of the Union and I was up in the balcony. I was looking down at the Democrats holding up these silly little signs and the sign that I saw the most was one that said ‘Musk steals’.” “I really thought about that, which is, you know, how is Elon stealing? He’s returning money to the Treasury.” “And then it hit me, they actually have come to believe that this taxpayer money is theirs and by returning it to the Treasury, Elon is stealing from them.” “That’s my best explanation of why they’re in such hysterical state about this.” “But of course, Elon isn’t stealing anything. He is making sure that the federal government is taking good care of our money and that we’re not wasting it, it’s not going to corruption or fraud, and I think that just has the swamp in an absolute tizzy because he, along with the president——they are draining the swamp.”
0:47

NEW - David Sacks Exposes Real Reason Swamp Dems Are Hysterical About Musk’s DOGE Cuts | “Then it hit me, they actually have come to believe that this taxpayer money is theirs and by returning it to the Treasury, Elon is stealing from them.” David Sacks just nailed the swamp’s meltdown over Elon Musk and DOGE, arguing they’re raging because they see taxpayer cash as their personal piggy bank—not the American voter’s. David Sacks laid it all out: “I was at the State of the Union and I was up in the balcony. I was looking down at the Democrats holding up these silly little signs and the sign that I saw the most was one that said ‘Musk steals’.” “I really thought about that, which is, you know, how is Elon stealing? He’s returning money to the Treasury.” “And then it hit me, they actually have come to believe that this taxpayer money is theirs and by returning it to the Treasury, Elon is stealing from them.” “That’s my best explanation of why they’re in such hysterical state about this.” “But of course, Elon isn’t stealing anything. He is making sure that the federal government is taking good care of our money and that we’re not wasting it, it’s not going to corruption or fraud, and I think that just has the swamp in an absolute tizzy because he, along with the president——they are draining the swamp.”

Overton

18,723,559 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🚨David Sacks on pre-product AI startups turning down billion-dollar acquisition offers: “There's a lot of people who've never been through a bust cycle before. And if they think that this is the normal state of the world, they're going to be sorely mistaken.” Sacks: “You are seeing founders turning down multi-billion dollar acquisition offers for startups that haven’t even released a product yet.” “As if those types of offers grow on trees. And they don't.” Jason: “You think Mira should have taken the billion dollar offer from Zuck, or Ilya should have taken the $30B, Sacks? I mean, these things never happen.” Sacks: “I guess it depends how much they have in the bank account. They're both OpenAI co-founders, so…” Chamath: “They probably sold a bunch of OpenAI equity at $300B and $500B. They seem like they're free rolling, so they have no incentive to sell.” Sacks: “Which is fine, it's just that there's a lot of people who've never been through a bust cycle before.” “And if they think that this is the normal state of the world, they're going to be sorely mistaken.” “Right now, we're in a part of the cycle where you can justify that valuation based on its strategic value to a multi-trillion dollar market cap company.” “But that only lasts while those companies are in the market for strategic acceleration.” “And if you turn that down, then you have to make your company work on its own as an actual business.” “And to get to a $30B valuation based on fundamentals, that is extraordinarily difficult.” “That implies multiple billions of revenue. Actual revenue.”
1:05

🚨David Sacks on pre-product AI startups turning down billion-dollar acquisition offers: “There's a lot of people who've never been through a bust cycle before. And if they think that this is the normal state of the world, they're going to be sorely mistaken.” Sacks: “You are seeing founders turning down multi-billion dollar acquisition offers for startups that haven’t even released a product yet.” “As if those types of offers grow on trees. And they don't.” Jason: “You think Mira should have taken the billion dollar offer from Zuck, or Ilya should have taken the $30B, Sacks? I mean, these things never happen.” Sacks: “I guess it depends how much they have in the bank account. They're both OpenAI co-founders, so…” Chamath: “They probably sold a bunch of OpenAI equity at $300B and $500B. They seem like they're free rolling, so they have no incentive to sell.” Sacks: “Which is fine, it's just that there's a lot of people who've never been through a bust cycle before.” “And if they think that this is the normal state of the world, they're going to be sorely mistaken.” “Right now, we're in a part of the cycle where you can justify that valuation based on its strategic value to a multi-trillion dollar market cap company.” “But that only lasts while those companies are in the market for strategic acceleration.” “And if you turn that down, then you have to make your company work on its own as an actual business.” “And to get to a $30B valuation based on fundamentals, that is extraordinarily difficult.” “That implies multiple billions of revenue. Actual revenue.”

The All-In Podcast

88,691 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

CBS Mornings: “The Iranians are saying that they're gonna have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. True or false?” Vice President JD Vance: “That's the sort of thing they could have access to funded by the Gulf Coast coalition so long as they honor their end of the obligation. I think that one of the things you're going to see, Ed, and people have to be skeptical of this, is that the hardliners in the Iranian system will over emphasize the benefits that Iran gets while under-emphasizing all the things that they have to concede and all the things they have to provide in order to get these benefits.” “So we absolutely are open to the Gulf Coast countries investing in the reconstruction of Iran but only if Iran ends their nuclear program.”
1:11

CBS Mornings: “The Iranians are saying that they're gonna have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. True or false?” Vice President JD Vance: “That's the sort of thing they could have access to funded by the Gulf Coast coalition so long as they honor their end of the obligation. I think that one of the things you're going to see, Ed, and people have to be skeptical of this, is that the hardliners in the Iranian system will over emphasize the benefits that Iran gets while under-emphasizing all the things that they have to concede and all the things they have to provide in order to get these benefits.” “So we absolutely are open to the Gulf Coast countries investing in the reconstruction of Iran but only if Iran ends their nuclear program.”

RedWave Press

389,029 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat